Joining the Fray: Outside Military Intervention in Civil Wars PDF
Preview Joining the Fray: Outside Military Intervention in Civil Wars
Joining the Fray Military Strategy and operational art edited by Professor howard M. hensel, air War College, USa the ashgate Series on Military Strategy and operational art analyzes and assesses the synergistic interrelationship between joint and combined military operations, national military strategy, grand strategy, and national political objectives in peacetime, as well as during periods of armed conflict. In doing so, the series highlights how various patterns of civil–military relations, as well as styles of political and military leadership influence the outcome of armed conflicts. In addition, the series highlights both the advantages and challenges associated with the joint and combined use of military forces involved in humanitarian relief, nation building, and peacekeeping operations, as well as across the spectrum of conflict extending from limited conflicts fought for limited political objectives to total war fought for unlimited objectives. Finally, the series highlights the complexity and challenges associated with insurgency and counter-insurgency operations, as well as conventional operations and operations involving the possible use of weapons of mass destruction. also in this series: Blair’s Successful War British Military Intervention in Sierra Leone andrew M. Dorman iSBn 978 0 7546 7299 9 Russian Civil-Military Relations robert Brannon iSBn 978 0 7546 7591 4 Managing Civil-Military Cooperation edited by Sebastiaan J.h. rietjens and Myriame t.i.B. Bollen iSBn 978 0 7546 7281 4 Securing the State Reforming the National Security Decisionmaking Process at the Civil-Military Nexus Christopher P. gibson iSBn 978 0 7546 7290 6 Joining the Fray outside Military intervention in Civil Wars ZaChary C. Shirkey Hunter College, City University of New York, USA © Zachary C. Shirkey 2012 all rights reserved. no part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise without the prior permission of the publisher. Zachary C. Shirkey has asserted his right under the Copyright, Designs and Patents act, 1988, to be identified as the author of this work. Published by ashgate Publishing Limited ashgate Publishing Company Wey Court east Suite 420 Union road 101 Cherry Street Farnham Burlington Surrey, gU9 7Pt Vt 05401-4405 england USa www.ashgate.com British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data Shirkey, Zachary C. Joining the fray : outside military intervention in civil wars. – (Military strategy and operational art) 1. Civil war – Case studies. 2. Military policy. 3. national interest. i. title ii. Series 327.1’6–dc23 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Shirkey, Zachary C. Joining the fray : military intervention in civil wars / by Zachary C. Shirkey. p. cm.—(Military strategy and operational art) includes bibliographical references and index. iSBn 978-1-4094-2892-3 (hbk.)—iSBn 978-1-4094-2893-0 (ebook) 1. Civil war. 2. intervention (international law)—Case studies. 3. Military history, Modern—20th century. i. title. ii. title: Military intervention in civil wars. U21.2.S542 2012 355.02’18—dc23 2012019361 iSBn 9781409428923 (hbk) iSBn 9781409428930 (ebk – PDF) iSBn 9781409470915 (ebk – ePUB) V Printed and bound in great Britain by the MPg Books group, Uk. Contents List of Figures and Tables ix Acknowledgements xi List of Abbreviations xiii 1 The Puzzle and Importance of Military Intervention in Civil Wars 1 What Causes Joining? 4 What is Joining? 7 Outline of the Book 9 2 Why States Join Civil Wars: Revealed Information and Commitment Problems 13 Correlates of Joining 13 Previous Theories of Joining 23 War, Peace and Revealed Information 27 Commitment Problems 36 Why Joining and Not Another Form of Involvement? 38 Strategic Delay 39 Differences from Prior Explanations 40 Hypotheses 42 Case Selection 44 3 The Hungarian Revolution (1848–49): Unexpected Defeats and Nagging Commitment Problems 47 The Course of the War through the Battle of Kápolna 49 The Outlook and Beliefs of Nicholas I 51 Russian Intervention in the Danubian Principalities and Transylvania 54 The Decision to Join the War 56 The Polish Bogeyman 59 Termination of the War 62 Conclusions 62 4 The Lebanese Civil War (1975–90): Revealed Information, Commitment Problems or Pretexts? 65 The Early Course of the War and Syrian Involvement 67 The Israeli Invasion 85 Overall Conclusions 101 vi Joining the Fray 5 The First and Second Congo Wars (1996–2003): Ethnic Ties, Refugee Flows and Commitment Problems 105 A Brief Outline of the Wars 106 Rwanda 111 Uganda 116 Angola and Namibia 121 Zimbabwe 125 Conclusions 127 6 The Afghan Civil War (1978–2001): Invasion Versus Military Aid 129 The Soviet Invasion 129 Soviet-Afghan Relations through the Saur Revolution 130 The Decision to Invade 135 Conclusions from the Soviet Invasion 148 Foreign Reactions to the Soviet Invasion 150 The Post-Soviet/Pre-US Invasion Environment 163 Overall Conclusions from Afghanistan 171 7 Conclusions, Extensions, Implications for Policy and Avenues for Future Research 175 Summary of the Work’s Main Findings 176 Extensions 183 Implications for Policy 185 Avenues for Future Research 187 Bibliography 191 Index 209 To Erin This page has been left blank intentionally List of Figures and Tables Table 2.1 Probable Settlements and State Motives for Joining 31 Figure 2.1 Revealed Information and Shifting Bargaining Ranges 34
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