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331. 12 E 1 ,i pm 1996-2006 Montana's Job Projections for and Occupations Industries 1996 - 2006 Published August 1998 by the Office of Research and Analysis Montana Department of Labor and Industryi^fît.^.^ f-^CNTAfM STATE LIB.-MRV HELENA, MOfJTA.\'A ----. IVH-'M1MF'" 3 086Ilil4lilllll0llll0Ji1:i|:4llli V!L5ili5ll!7'l;5l III Other Sources of Montana Labor Market Information In Publications: Thefollowingpublicationsareavailable, atnocharge, fromtheDepartmentofLaborand Industry's OfficeofResearchandAnalysis: Census ofFatal Occupational Injuries—Includes informationonwork-related fatalitiesinMontanaandtheU.S. Countylabormarketinformation flyers—Provideinformation onlargestprivate employers,employmentbyindustry,employmentandunemploymentstatistics, population,percapitaincome, localinformation resources,etc. forMontanacounties withlaiêrpopulations. Job Projections forMontana's Industries and Occupations—Presentsinformation developedtohelppeopleanticipatewhichindustriesandoccupationsarelikelyto showjob growthinthenearfuture, andwhicharenot. Montana Employment and Labor Force Trends—Presents information onstate- wideandcountylabormarketinformation. Informationisalsoincludedonemploy- mentbyindustry,femaleemploymentbyindustry, averagehoursandearnings,tally ofnewbusinessfirms, andprevailingwageratesforaliencertification. Montanalabormarket informationflyer—Statewidelabormarket informationon largestprivateemployers,employmentbyindustry,employmentandunemployment statistics,population,percapitaincome, etc. Montana Occupational Injuries and Illnesses—Includesinformation onwork- relatedinjuriesandillnesses, includingaccident ratesandfrequenciesbyindustry. ProfileoftheMontana Worker—Apublication ofcharts andgraphsprovidinga comprehensiveprofileofMontanaanditslaborforce. Statistics in Brief—Singlepage referencewhichincludesdataonemployment and unemploymentbycounty, laborforceandservicedeliveryareas. Wage Information publications—Includeinformational wagerates byoccupation. On the State of Montana Electronic Bulletin Board: MontanalabormarketinformationisavailableontheStateofMontanaelearonicbulletin boardat 1-406-444-4851 (fromoutsideMontana) orat 1-800-803-6393 (from insideMon- tana). Acomputerandmodemarerequired. On the Internet: TheDepartmentofLaborandIndustry'sOffice ofResearchandAnalysisplacesmuchof itslabormarketinformation ontheInternetathttp://jsd.dH.mt.gov/lmi/lmi.htm Listingsof jobopenings and State ofMontanajobvacancies can be foundatthe StateJob Service'sself-direaedjobsearchsystemaddressontheInternet at http://jsd.dli.mt.gov/ Inaddition,Montanajobopenings arepublishedonAmerica'sJobBankontheInternet WorldWideWebNetwork.MembersofthepublicinterestedinusingtheInternetcan contarttheirpubliclibraries, collegesanduniversitiestoseeiftheyhaveInternetaccessor tofindoutifthere'sacommercialserviceproviderintheircommunitiestosubscribeand useInternetonapersonalcomputer. Job Projections for Montana's and Occupations Industries - 996 2006 1 Published August 1998 by the Montana Department of Labor & Industry's Office of Research & Analysis State of Montana Marc Racicot, Governor Montana Department of Labor St Industry Pat Haffey, Commissioner For more information, contact the Office of Research and Analysis; P.O. Box 1728; Helena MT 59624 http://jsd.dli.mt.gov/lmi/lmi.htm MONTANA 406-444-2430 / FAX 406-444-2638 Department of Toll free within Montana 800-633-0229 Labor&Industry Toll free outside Montana 800-541-3904 ^^^ Office of TDD 406-444-0532 or 800-354-8830 Research&Analysis Acknowledgments ThefollowingOfficeofResearch and Analysisstaffmembers workedtogetherproducingthispublication: State Economist PhilBrookspreparedtheMontana industry projections withtheassistanceofStateStatisticianBob Liffring—and alsowrotethejobprojectionsnarrativefor Montana'sindustries. ResearchSpecialistTomCawleyprepared theoccupationalprojertions.JulieHuntingtoneditedthepublica- tionwiththehelpofTinaHash. Table of Contents Introduction JobProjectionsNarrative forMontana's Industries, 1996-2006 3 MontanaJob Projectionsby Industry Sectorand Subsector 8 Job Projections Narrative for U.S. Industries, 1996-2006. 10 U.S.Job Projections by Industry Sector 11 Job Projections Narrative forMontana's Occupations, 1996-2006 12 MontanaJob Projections Ranked byTotal Growth 15 MontanaJob Projections Ranked Alphabetically byOccupation (yellowpages) 27 Job Projections Narrativefor U.S. Occupations, 1996-2006 39 Methodology Used in MakingMontana IndustryJob Projections 42 Methodology Factors byMontana Industry Sectorand Subsector 45 Methodology Used in Making Montana OccupationalJob Projections 47 Introduction The Need for JobTrend Information Accesstothe latestjobtrend information iscrucialtoeveryone involved in Montana's employment piaure. To meetthat need,theDepartmentofLaborand Industry'sOfficeof ResearchandAnalysis developsindustryandoccupational jobprojectionsannuallyto help peopleanticipatewhichindustriesandoccupationsarelikelytoshowjobgrowth inthe near future, andwhicharenot. Businesses, government agencies, educators, researchers,job trainingprogram planners, studentsandjobseekersshouldall benefit. — 1996 2006 Montana Job Projections TheindustryandoccupationaljobprojeaionsforMontanafeatured inthispublication weremadetotheyear2006 basedondatafrom 1996 andprevious years, usingmethodology detailedonpages42-48. Resultingjob numbers areestimated numbers—andall information appliestothestateasawhole. Projeaionsweremadepartlyunderthe assumptionthatpast employmenttrendswillcontinue,that relationshipswithotherfactorssuchaspopulation willcontinue,andthatoureconomy'sinstitutionalframeworkwillnotundergoradical changes. Comparable National Information Someinformationon national industryandoccupationaljobprojectionsfor 1996-2006is incorporatedinthispublicationsothatpeoplecanseehowMontana'sjobprojertions comparewithnationalprojectionsmadeforthesametimeperiod. Peopleinterestedin seeingmoredetailedinformationonnationalprojectionsshouldconsulttheNovember 1997 issueoftheMonthlyLaborReview,publishedbytheU.S. DepartmentofLabor'sBureauof LaborStatisticsorvisitthebureau'sInternetwebsiteathttp://stats.bls.gav/ For More Information Ifyouhave questionsabout information includedinthis publication,pleasecontaausat the Office ofResearch and Analysis, Montana Department ofLaborand Industry, MT TDD P.O. Box 1728, Helena, 59624, (406) 444-2430 or (406) 444-0532. The informationincludedinthispublicationisalsoaccessibleonourInternetwebsite at http://]sd.dlumtgjuAmiAmuhtm Wewill do ourbestto provideinformation in accessibleformat, on request, incompliance withtheAmericanswithDisabilitiesAct. - - 1 - 2 - Job Projections for Montana's Industries, 1996-2006 Althoughthe futureis nevercertain, it is useful to lookaheadandtrytodetermine what generally may happen interms ofthenumberofjobssupported withinMontana'seconomic sectors. Mostjob growth involves wageandsalaryjobs;consequently, wageandsalaryjobs will beemphasized inthis narrative. Self-employmentjobsarean importantpart ofthe Montanaeconomy andalsowillbehighlighted. Becauseofthe inherent uncertainty inpredictingthefuture, all oftheprojections pre- sented hereshould be interpreted as only an approximation ofthetruelevel ofjobs overall orforagiven industry. About 9,400 New Jobs aYear Projected through 2006 Atotal ofroughly94,000jobs, ofwhich 72,000 areestimatedto be wage andsalary (payroll) jobs, areprojectedtobe created inMontanabetween 1996 and 2006. Thistranslates toapproximately9,400jobs, or 1.8percent growth,peryear. Most Job Growth in Services-Producing Sectors Mostjob growth isprojectedto be intheservices-producingsegment ofthe Montana economy,whichiscomprisedofindustriesthatdo notproduce aphysical ortangibleprod- uct. Muchofthisgrowthisprojectedto beineatinganddrinkingestablishments, health services, businessservices,socialservices,publiceducationalservices, general merchandise — stores, andrecreationalservices withcontinuingpopulationgrowthduringthe remainder ofthe 1990s andintothenextcenturyactingasthemainforce behindjob increasesinthose sectors. Job Growth in Goods-Producing Sectors Small but Important Thegoods-producingsegment ofMontana'seconomy isforecasttogrow by about 5,000 wageandsalaryjobs, plusafewthousandself-employmentjobs,through2006. Although this growthismuchmoremodestthanforservice-typesertors,itisneverthelessimportant. Most ofthe goods-producinggrowth (estimated4,000payrolljobsand nearlyall oftheself- employment) isinconstruction,wherejob growthisprimarilyrelatedtopopulationin- creasesandassociatedhousingandcommercialbuildingrequnements. Durablegoods manufacturing (productswith anexpeaed lifeof3 years ormore) mayadd atotal of roughly3,000 additional goods-producingjobs, inspiteofthefaathatwoodproducts manufarturingisprojeaedtodecline. Basically, zerojobgrowthoverall isprojectedfornondurablegoodsmanufacturing. This nongrowth isprincipallybecauseofprojecteddecreasesin food productsbeingonlybal- ancedbypositivegrowth inmost othernondurablemanufaaurmgsectors. Production agriculture,theraisingofcropsand livestock, isalsoexpeaedto continueits longdeclinein jobnumbers. - 3 - Finally, asmalldecreasein miningjobsisprojectedoverthe 1996-2006timeperiod. Projeaeddeclinesinoil andgas miningemployment aspart ofaprojectednational de- crease, istheprimaryreasonfortheMontanaminingemploymentdecline.Pleaserefertothe talônpages8-9forrnorecktailedpnyeaumsforhmadyd^nediridustri^ Services Jobs Narrowlydefined, servicesis amajorpart ofthe broaderservice-producingsegmentof theMontanaeconomy. It isprojectedtoincreasebyabout 38,000wage andsalaryjobs between 1996and2006, andby roughly 10,000self-employmentjobs. These increases accountforalittlemorethanhalfthetotaljobscreatedoverthistimeperiod. {Information in thetableonpages8-9detailsthevarietyofconsumer,producer,andprofessionalservicesincludedinthis cate-gfry) Withintheservicessector, private health services isexpeaedto increasebyabout 8,000 payrolljobs asa result ofgeneralpopulation growthandthe normal agingofMontana's population. Self-employmentjobgrowthprobablywillbeinthehundreds.. Business services isprojectedto increase by roughly7,000jobs between 1996and 2006, includingself-employmentjobs. Majorcomponentsofthissubsertorincludetemporaryhelp agenciesthatsupplyworkerstovariousindustries, buildingmaintenanceservices, computer servicesandequipment rentalbusinesses. Growthinthisindustryispart ofanationaltrend toward moreuseoftemporaryemployeesandoutsidecontractorsformaintenance and otherservices. Private social services isprojeaedto increasebyabout4,000payrolljobs overthe period. This ispartlythe result ofthenationaltrendtowardshiftingcounselingandresiden- tialtreatmentprogramsawayfromsituationswheremedicaldoctorsareinvolved. Social servicesincludenonmedical individualandfamilysocialservices, nonmedical residential care, childdaycareservices—alongwithjobtrainingandvocational rehabilitationservices. Pieces ofthe recreationandtravel industryarelocatedwithinthe narrowlydefinedser- vicescategory, namely hotels and other lodgingplaces and amusement and recreational services. Thislattersubseaorisprojeaedto increaseby approximately3,000payrolljobs between 1996and2006,withadditional self-employment alsolikely. Hotelsandother lodgingplaces isprojectedto increasebyabout 2,000jobs. Thenarrowly-definedservicescategoryalso includestheengineeringand management servicessubseaor, which isprojectedto increaseby roughly2,000payrolljobsthrough 2006. Probablyathousandormoreself-employmentjobswillalsobecreated. Retail Trade Jobs Retail tradeis projeaedto addabout 23,000payroll jobsto Montana'seconomy between 1996 and2006, andapproximately4,000self-employmentjobs. Thiscombined increase accountsfor 30percent ofthetotaljobscreated. - 4 -