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JIHADIST TERROR ii JIHADIST TERROR New Threats, New Responses Edited by Anthony Richards with Devorah Margolin and Nicolò Scremin I.B. TAURIS Bloomsbury Publishing Plc 50 Bedford Square, London, WC1B 3DP, UK 1385 Broadway, New York, NY 10018, USA BLOOMSBURY, I.B. TAURIS and the I.B. Tauris logo are trademarks of Bloomsbury Publishing Plc First published in Great Britain 2019 Copyright © CoJiT, 2019 CoJiT has asserted its right under the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act, 1988, to be identified as Author of this work. Cover design: Charlotte Daniels Cover image © Sirikwan Dokuta / Shutterstock All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, or any information storage or retrieval system, without prior permission in writing from the publishers. 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COMBATING JIHADIST TERRORISM AND EXTREMISM (COJIT) In light of the London Bridge attack on 3 June 2017, the third of five jihadist- inspired terrorist assaults in the UK that year, concerned citizens across the country were asking three questions: why is this happening? Is there a solution? And if so, what is it? The prime minister said we had shown ‘too much tolerance’ of extremism in the UK and that we must be prepared to have ‘difficult’ and ‘embarrassing’ conversations throughout our society to combat the influence of the nihilistic hatred that jihadist terrorism represents. Such conversations must involve all sectors of UK society, not just within and between minority segments. CoJiT is an initiative designed to make a rapid, direct and high-profile contribution in responding to these difficult questions and to play a catalysing role in the ‘national conversation’ called for by the prime minister. It has brought together leading experts to look afresh at how we define the particular problem of jihadist terrorism and to discuss openly what has to be done to counter it and the extremist ideology that fuels it, not just in the UK but around the world. The initiative is focused on the active encouragement of practical policy engagement at all levels designed to affect both policy and operational change. CoJiT will promote this engagement through an independent national dialogue with community individuals, local government and social and police leads, as well as with national government. It will focus on practical solutions identified by the initiative, such as CoJiT’s recommendation for independent oversight of the government’s Prevent programme, encouraging where possible their adoption and implementation. CoJiT is conceived quite independently and begins with a problem-solving perspective: it is not our intention to duplicate any of the extensive and good analysis already in existence, but rather to offer an independent synthesis of it as a baseline of accepted evidence to initiate the sort of honest national dialogue the prime minister has called for. The CoJiT-funded conference on Combating Jihadist Terrorism in the United Kingdom, held at the Royal Institution, London, in September 2018 under the Chairmanship of former RUSI Director, Professor Michael Clarke, of which this book is the product, was the first iteration of the independent national conversation that CoJiT is seeking to promote. CoJiT’s objectives in light of the outcomes of that first conference are to: ●● Promote an active, sustained national conversation primarily in the UK about jihadist terrorism and related extremism ●● Develop further the body of analytical work contained in this first publication, summarizing the emerging conclusions with public presentations ●● Support, contribute to and collaborate with other organizations involved in related endeavours We hope you find much of value in the contributions in this volume and that you will wish to take an active part in the independent national conversation on combating terrorism and extremism in the months and years to come. Ian Maxwell & Mohamed Amersi CoJiT Founding Members & Directors www.cojit.org CONTENTS 1 Introduction Anthony Richards 1 PART ONE MOTIVATIONS FOR JIHADIST TERRORISM 5 2 Drivers of Jihadist Terrorism: Understanding the Ideological Antecedents of Salafi-Jihadi Terrorism Shiraz Maher 7 3 The Impact of Jihadist Terrorist Narratives and How to Counter Them: A Research Synthesis Kurt Braddock 15 4 The Impact of Conspiracy Theories and How to Counter Them: Reviewing the Literature on Conspiracy Theories and Radicalization to Violence Amarnath Amarasingam 27 5 The International Context of UK Radicalization Trends: Developments Abroad That Inspire Terrorism within the UK Petter Nesser 41 6 Evidence for the Relationship Between Non-Violent Extremism and Violent Radicalization: Conveyor Belt or Firewall? Emman El-Badawy 53 7 A Demography of British Muslims: Cross-Sectional Understanding of Muslim Communities and Their Heterogeneity within the UK Tufyal Choudhury 67 8 Willingness to Engage and Discuss Issues across Muslim and Ethnic Minority Communities: Attitudes towards Muslims from Non-Muslims in the UK Maria Sobolewska 77 9 The Impact of Structural Inequalities, Integration, Otherness and Discrimination Tahir Abbas 87 10 The Role of Community Engagement and the Practical Role of Moderate and Non-Violent Extremist Movements in Combating Jihadist Terrorism Basia Spalek and Salwa El-Awa 97 11 The Role and Impact of Women’s Influence in Radicalization and Counter-Radicalization Katherine Brown 111 12 Psychological Dimensions of Terrorism: Profiling Impossible but Patterns Discernible Max Taylor 125 PART TWO METHODS AND MODALITIES OF JIHADIST TERRORISM AND COUNTER- MEASURES 135 13 Neighbourhood Effects – How Jihadist Recruitment Really Works Jytte Klausen 137 14 The Role and Impact of Encryption as Facilitator and Pros and Cons of the Encryption Intervention Debate Carl Miller 155 15 Physical Facilitating Environments – Prisons and Madrassas as Mechanisms and Vehicles of Violent Radicalization? Andrew Silke 169 16 Improved Terrorist Practical Learning Potentials from Internet-Based Platforms Anne Stenersen 179 17 Lone-Actor Terrorism: The Nature of the Threat and Responses Paul Gill 189 18 Returning Foreign Fighters: The Extent of the Threat to the UK and Prospects for Reintegration Richard Barrett 199 viii CONTENTS PART THREE LEGISLATIVE AND INTELLIGENCE RESPONSES 209 19 Responding to Terrorism through Legislation Max Hill, QC 211 20 Assessing the legislative response to Terrorism: Adequacy, Gaps, What’s Unnecessary or Counterproductive Lord David Anderson, KBE, QC 219 21 Independent Assessment of the Current Balance between Counter-Terrorism Legislation and Civil Liberties: The Role of the Independent Reviewer of Terrorism Legislation Jessie Blackbourn and Clive Walker 229 22 An Assessment of Prevent and the Challenges Ahead Therese O’Toole 245 23 Intelligence-Led Policing and Counter-Terrorism Michael Clarke 259 PART FOUR GENERAL PERSPECTIVES ON THE JIHADIST TERRORIST THREAT AND RESPONSES 269 24 Personal and Organizational Patterns of Known Terrorists and Related Groups in the UK since 1998 Raffaello Pantucci 271 25 Successes and Failures of the UK’s Counter-Terrorism, Counter-Radicalization and Prevent Strategy against Jihadist Terrorism since 1998 John Gearson 285 26 An Independent Assessment of the UK’s Capacity and Capabilities Devoted to Countering Jihadist Terrorism: Government, Policing, Intelligence Agencies and Civil Society Richard Walton 299 27 Comparison of Experiences and Best Practice Drawn from Research in Other Countries: Countering Violent Extremism in Europe Peter R. Neumann 313 CONTENTS ix