ebook img

Italy. PDF

139 Pages·1989·7.629 MB·English
by  OECD
Save to my drive
Quick download
Download
Most books are stored in the elastic cloud where traffic is expensive. For this reason, we have a limit on daily download.

Preview Italy.

©ECO »A'-o^svAAr ,*j- OECD ECONOMIC SURVEYS ITALY :-; [ARCHIVES y;| ". {références i DOC FP.-ÊTÉ 1 r-'.--r-"V,.!R BLIP£AU 6H3 V| :-.*..* ORGANISATION FORECONOMIC CO-OPERATION ANDDEVELOPMENT Pursuant toarticle 1 oftheConventionsigned in Parison 14th December 1960,andwhichcameintoforceon30thSeptember 1961,theOrganisationfor Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) shall promote policies designed: - toachievethehighestsustainableeconomicgrowthandemploymentand a rising standard of living in Member countries, while maintaining financialstability,andthustocontributetothedevelopmentoftheworld economy: - to contribute to sound economic expansion in Member as well as non-membercountries in the process ofeconomic development; and - to contribute to the expansion of world trade on a multilateral, non-discriminatory basis in accordance with international obligations. The original Member countries of the OECD arc Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, the Federal Republic of Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom and the United States. The following countries became Members subsequently through accession at thedates indicated hereafter:Japan (28thApril 1964), Finland (28thJanuary 1969), Australia (7lhJunc 1971) and New Zealand (29th May 1973). TheSocialistFederalRepublicofYugoslavialakespariinsonicofthework ofthe OECD (agreement of 28thOctober 1961). Public également en français. OOECD, 1989 Application forpermission to reproduce or translate all or part ofthis publication should be made to: Headof PublicationsService, OECD 2, rue Andre-Pascal, 75775 PARIS CEDEX 16, France. Table of contents Introduction I. Macroeconomic consequences of the budget deficit 10 Deficits and debt 10 Crowding out? 17 Financial consequences 21 II. Industrial adjustment 23 Introduction 23 Adjustment: productivity and export performance 25 Factors behind adjustment 33 The microeconomic role of the State 39 Conclusion 53 III. Recent developments 55 Strong growth of domestic demand 55 Continued high unemployment 60 End of disinflation? 63 Worsening current account 66 Capital and exchange-market volatility 68 IV. Policies and prospects 71 Slow fiscal adjustment 71 Monetary policy 80 Prospects for 1989 and 1990 84 V. Conclusions 88 Notes and references 95 Annexes I. Industrial adjustment: background information 102 II. Main policy measures 112 Statistical annex 1 19 Tables 1. Trends in public deficits and debt 12 2. Changes in the general government financial balance 13 3. International comparison of government deficits and debt 15 4. Breakdown of government debt 19 5. Productivity increases in the business and manufacturing sectors 27 6. "Revealed" comparative advantage: main OECD countries 31 7. Financial position of enterprises 34 8. Public investment in Italy 40 9. Measuring the efficiency of some public services 42 10. Direct subsidies in some OECD countries 45 11. Transfers to industry, 1978-84 46 12. R&D expenditure and the diffusion of technology 50 13. Demand and supply 57 14. Households' appropriation account 58 15. Gross fixed capital formation by sector and product 59 16. Employment and the labour market 61 17. Regional indicators of unemployment in 1987 62 18. Wage indicators 65 19. Foreign trade volumes 66 20. Breakdown of changes in the current balance 66 21. Balance of payments 67 22. Central government budget 72 23. Consolidated general government account 74 24. Financing of public sector deficit and public debt 75 25. Public finance consolidation programme 77 26. Monetary aggregates 81 27. Short-term projections 86 Annex 1 Al. Structural shifts 1968-1987 106 A2. Structure of output and of imports of main OECD countries 107 A3. Adjusted intra-industry trade index 108 A4. The public sector in Italy: definitions 109 Statistical Annex Selected background statistics 120 A. Expenditure on gross domestic product, current prices 121 B. Expenditure on gross domestic product, constant 1980 prices 122 C. Gross domestic product, by kind of activity 123 D. Household appropriation account 124 E. General government account 125 F. Prices and wages 126 G. Employment indicators 127 H. Money and credit 128 I. Foreign trade by main commodity groups 130 J. Geographical breakdown of foreign trade 131 K. Balance of payments 132 Diagrams 1. Measures of fiscal stance 1 1 2. Saving-investment balances and macroeconomic performance 14 3. International comparison of real short-term interest rates 16 4. Composition of household wealth 20 5. Trends in value added in industry and the service sector 24 6. Trade balances by principal category 29 7. External performance and competitiveness in manufacturing 30 8. Capacity-expanding investment and capacity utilisation 35 9. Unemployment and capacity utilisation 36 10. Trends in industrial activity, by size of enterprises 38 11. Contributions to GDP growth 56 12. The disinflation process 63 13. Wholesale prices 64 14. The exchange rate and competitiveness 69 15. Government expenditure and deficits: targets and outturns 78 16. Interest rates 82 17. Business indicators 85 Annex I Al. Trade balances and capacity utilisation by sector 110 A2. Value added as a percentage of output 1 1 1 BASIC STATISTICS OF ITALY THELAND Area(I 000sq.km) 301.3 Populationofmajorcilics. Agriculturalarea(1 000sq.km) 1984 217.5 1986: Thousands Rome 2817 Milan I 479 Naples 1 201 Turin 1 025 THEPEOPLE Residentpopulation, 1/1/1987 Thousands (thousands) 57291 Labourforce, 1987 23669 No.ofinhabitantspersq.km 190 Employment, 1987 20836 Netnaturalincreaseinpopulation: inagriculture 2 169 annualaverage 1983-1986(thous.) 34 inindustry 6716 Nelraleper I 000inhabitants inservices II 952 (average 1983-1986) 0.6 PRODUCTION GrossDomesticProductin 1987 Originofgrossdomesticproduct (trillionsoflire) 982.6 in 1987(atmarketprices) GDPperheadin 1987(USS) 13224 percentoftotal: Grossfixedcapitalformation: Agriculture 4.1 PercentofGDPin 1987 19.9 Industry 28.6 Perheadin 1987(USJ) 2626 Construction 5.5 Other 61.8 THEPUBLICSECTOR Publicconsumptionin 1987 Publicdebtin 1987 (percentageofGDP) 16.9 (percentageofGDP) Currentrevenueorgeneral Generalgovernmentinvestment governmentin 1987 in 1987 (percentage (percentageofGDP) 40.1 oftotal investment) 17.8 FOREIGNTRADE Exportsofgoodsandservices Importsofgoodsandservices asapercentageofGDP, asapercentageofGDP, 1987,(OECD,SNA) 18.0 1987,(OECD,SNA) 18.3 Mainexportcategories,asapercentage Mainimportcategories,asapercentage oftotalexports, 1987(SITC): ortotalimports, 1987(SITC): Machinery(71 to77) 26.0 Foodstuffs(0) 12.4 Fabricsandtextilegoods(65) 6.3 Machinery(71 to77) 17.7 Chemicalproducts(5) 7.5 Metals,oresandscrap(67+68) 5.7 Automobilesandparts(78+79) 8.8 Mineralfuels(3) 13.9 Mineralfuels(3) 2.4 Chemicalproducts(5) 11.2 THECURRENCY Monetaryunit: Lira CurrencyunitsperUSdollar, averageofdailyfigures: Year 1987 1 297.0 November 1988 1 304.1 Note: Aninternationalcomparisonofcertainbasicstatisticsisgiveninanannextable. This Survey is based on the Secretariat's study preparedfor the annual review ofItaly by the Economic and Development Review Committee on 21st November 1988. After revisions in the light ofdiscussions during the review, final approval ofthe Survey forpublication was given bythe Committeeon 13th December1988. The previous survey of Italy was issued in August 1987. Introduction In 1988, for the fifth consecutive year, GDP growth in Italy was one of the highestinEuropeatbetween3xhand4 percent.Thisexpansionhasbeenbasedonthe strength of domestic demand and rapid growth of exports. As a result, the rate of unemployment has stabilized, albeit at a level which is still high. The slowdown in inflation came to an end towards late 1987, with the rise in consumer prices -at nearly 5 per cent, the lowest ratefor almost twenty years-still above the European average. Buoyantexport volumesand favourable terms-of-trade developments have helpedtolimitthedeterioration inthecurrentbalance:theexternaldeficitfor 1988 is estimated at around lhper cent of GDP. It is the scale and speed of adjustment in industry since the early 1980s which are largely responsible for this sound performance. Private firms have been the main players involved, but central government has also devoted very substantial resources to the adjustment process. But the overall picture is not entirely unclouded. The results achieved on the inflation front are largely attributable to external influences. The Lira has appreciated in real terms since 1985, worsening Italy's competitive position. The main source of macroeconomic disequilibrium remains the public sector deficit: government debt continues to expand and now amounts to almost 100 per cent of GDP.This inevitablytendstodivertdomesticsavingsfrom theprivatesector. Italso means keeping real interest rates high, which exacerbates the accumulation ofdebt andalsorestrictsthemonetaryauthorities' roomformanThereforeoneofthe fundamental objectives ofeconomic policy is to reduce the government deficit, and indeed achieve a primary surplus (i.e. exclusive of interest payments) in the near future. Themacroeconomicconsequencesofthefiscal imbalanceareanalysedin Part I. Part II assesses the scale ofindustrial restructuring to date and the effectiveness of adjustment. The role played by the authorities in this process and, in particular, government aid to industry are discussed in greater detail. Part III looks at recent developments in the economy. Economic policy and short-term projections are the subject of Part IV. Policy conclusions are presented in Part V.

See more

The list of books you might like

Most books are stored in the elastic cloud where traffic is expensive. For this reason, we have a limit on daily download.