Iran's Foreign Policy in the Post-Soviet Era: Resisting the New International Order

332 Pages·2010·1.4 MB·English

by  Shireen T. Hunter

Iran’s Foreign Policy in
the Post-Soviet Era
This page intentionally left blank
Iran’s Foreign Policy in
the Post-Soviet Era
s
Resisting the New
International Order
SHIREEN T. HUNTER
Copyright 2010 by Shireen T. Hunter
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored
in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic,
mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, except for the inclusion
of brief quotations in a review, without prior permission in writing from the publisher.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Hunter, Shireen.
Iran’s foreign policy in the post-Soviet era : resisting the new international
order / Shireen T. Hunter.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 978-0-313-38194-2 (alk. paper) — ISBN 978-0-313-38195-9 (ebook)
1. Iran—Foreign relations—1979–1997. 2. Iran—Foreign relations—1997–
3. Iran—Foreign relations—1979–1997—Case studies. 4. Iran—Foreign
relations—1997—Case studies. I. Title.
DS318.83.H863 2010
327.55—dc22 2010006658
ISBN: 978-0-313-38194-2
EISBN: 978-0-313-38195-9
14 13 12 11 10 1 2 3 4 5
This book is also available on the World Wide Web as an eBook.
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Contents
Preface vii
Introduction ix
PART ONE: THEMATIC ISSUES 1
Chapter 1 The Emerging Post-Soviet International System:
Implications for Iran 3
Chapter 2 The Domestic Context of Iran’s Foreign Policy:
Impact on External Behavior 17
PART TWO: CASE STUDIES 31
Chapter 3 Iran and the United States: Are They
Destined to Eternal Enmity? 33
Chapter 4 Iran and Europe: Not So Constructive
Engagement 78
Chapter 5 Iran and Russia: Strategic Partnership
or a Fool’s Bargain? 103
Chapter 6 Looking East: Iran’s Relations with
India, China, and Other Asian Countries 117
Chapter 7 Iran and Its Neighbors: Pakistan, Afghanistan,
and Turkey 142
Chapter 8 Iran, Central Asia, and the Caucasus:
Unfulfilled Expectations 169
vi Contents
Chapter 9 Iran and the Arab World: Between Conflict
and Accommodation 185
Chapter 10 Iran’s Relations with Africa and Latin America:
Seeking Economic Advantage or
Anti-Imperialist Coalition? 225
Conclusions 239
Notes 243
Selected Bibliography 295
Index 299
Preface
The Soviet Union’s dismantlement in December 1991, as a result of its own internal
developments and without any direct outside inter ference, was the most significant de-
velopment in global politics of the second half of the 20th century. The USSR’s demise
fundamentally altered the character of the international political system and equations
of power among its major players. However, the expectation of a post-Soviet system
based on the hegemonic dominance of the United States has not been realized, al-
though the United States still retains the greatest influence internationally.
The characteristics of the emerging international system still remain unclear and
to a considerable degree undefined, although economic, political, and military trends
point to a system with multiple centers of power. Similarly, despite the relative revival
of socialism in parts of the world and, notwithstanding much talk of a looming clash of
civil izations, the return to a sharply divided international system along ideological lines
seems highly unlikely.
What has become quite clear, however, is that post-Soviet s ystemic developments
have been detrimental to less powerful countries, a lbeit to varying degrees. For ex-
ample, the elimination of the Cold War era zero-sum competition between the West
and the Soviet bloc countries freed both sides in that conflict to intervene more boldly
in other countries, including militarily. The U.S. war against Iraq in 1991, although
occurring before the official end of the Soviet Union, as well as the Afghan and Iraq
invasions of 2001 and 2003, respectively, would not have been possible during the
height of the Cold War. Similarly, there has been a greater deal of international
tolerance for turmoil in poor and powerless countries than could have been possible
during the Cold War because the fear on the part of major powers that rivals might
exploit that turmoil for their own ends has essentially disappeared.
While all less powerful countries have been negatively affected by the post-Soviet
systemic changes, those in the proximity of the former USSR and those with hostile
relations with the West have suffered most. Iran is the best example of this category
of states. Even before the USSR’s official demise, changes in Soviet foreign policy had
viii Preface
led to a hardening of Western policy toward Iran. This trend has since continued and
worsened. The attitude of Iran’s neighbors toward it has also stiffened.
Some countries have managed to deal more effectively with the adverse conse-
quences of post-Soviet systemic changes and adjust to them. Iran has not been one of
these countries. Instead, in the last two decades Iran has resisted the emerging new in-
ternational system and, at least partly as a consequence of this resistance, has incurred
significant losses and setbacks.
This work will analyze the systemic changes produced by the S oviet Union’s col-
lapse. It will also demonstrate how and why Iran has failed fully to appreciate the di-
mensions of these systemic changes, to u nderstand their impact on its own position
and interest, and to adjust to them adequately.
This book was written in 2008 –2009, during my time as a visiting professor at the
Prince Alwaleed Bin Tallal Center for Muslim- Christian Understanding of George-
town University’s Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service. I would therefore like
to express my thanks to the School of Foreign Service and to Professor John L. Es-
posito, founding director of the ACMCU, for affording me this opportunity. I greatly
benefited from Georgetown’s valuable research facilities and its stimulating intellectual
environment.
I would also like to express my thanks to my husband Robert Hunter, for his un-
failing support and good advice. Ultimately, however, I am solely responsible for any
errors or shortcomings of the book.
Introduction
Foreign policies of states are essentially determined by two sets of factors:
• Those related to their internal setting, including their geopolitical situation; eth-
nic and religious composition; historical experience; resource base; economic,
military, and technological assets and needs; the character of their political sys-
tems and elites; and ideological /ideational proclivities
• Those related to the external milieu within which they operate — namely, the in-
ternational political system and its regional subsystems
No state, no matter how big and strong, is immune from the impact of systemic
factors. However, smaller and less powerful states are even more vulnerable to sys-
temic influences. This difference in the level of states’ susceptibility to systemic influ-
ences derives from the fact that large and powerful states essentially shape the basic
characteristics of the international system, determine the dynamics of interstate
conflict and cooperation, and set the rules that govern interstate and intern ational
relations.1
By contrast, historically, with few exceptions smaller and less powerful states have
had minimal roles in shaping the character of the international system or determin-
ing its rules, although this has not always been for lack of trying.2 Rather, they have
had to accommodate the system as they found it as well as any changes to its character.
Failure to accommodate or, worse, challenging the system and its rules, has generally
entailed irrelevancy, loss of opportunity, and security and financial costs.
Among the less powerful states, those with medium power and r egional ambitions
occupy a special place. Quite often, such countries are not satisfied simply to observe
the rules set by major international players and strive to change those rules in ways to
benefit their own interests. They also tend to compete for influence with the larger
and more powerful countries, albeit to a limited degree and within a relatively narrow