Iran, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf : power politics in transition 1968-1971 PDF
Preview Iran, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf : power politics in transition 1968-1971
iran, saudi arabia and the gulf Iran, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Power Politics in Transition 1968–1971 Faisal bin Salman al-Saud Published in 2003 by I.B. Tauris & Co Ltd 6 Salem Road, London W2 4BU 175 Fifth Avenue, New York NY 10010 www.ibtauris.com In the United States of America and Canada distributed by Palgrave Macmillan a division of St. Martin’s Press 175 Fifth Avenue, New York NY 10010 Copyright © 2003 Faisal bin Salman al-Saud The right of Faisal bin Salman al-Saud to be identified as the author of this work has been asserted by the author in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patent Act 1988. All rights reserved. Except for brief quotations in a review, this book, or any part thereof, may not be reproduced, stored in or introduced into a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior written permission of the publisher. ISBN 1 86064 881 9 A full CIP record for this book is available from the British Library A full CIP record is available from the Library of Congress Library of Congress Catalog Card Number: available Typeset in Minion by Hepton Books, Oxford Printed and bound in Great Britain by MPG Books, Bodmin. Contents List of Maps and Tables vi Preface vii Acknowledgements xii 1 The Historical Setting 1 2 The 16 January Decision: Britain, the United States and Iran 10 3 From Gunboat Diplomacy to Compromise 29 4 The Nixon Doctrine: Iran and the Gulf 57 5 The Insoluble Disputes 78 6 The Final Year 106 7 Epilogue 125 Notes 130 Bibliography 168 Index 174 List of Maps and Tables Maps Map 1 The 1968 Final Offshore Boundary Line Agreed Between Saudi Arabia and Iran 43 Map 2 The Strait of Hormuz 82 Map 3 Abu Musa: 1971 Administrative Line Dividing the Northern (Iranian) and Southern (Sharjah) Sectors 118 Tables Table 1 Iran, Iraq and Saudi Arabia: Military Manpower 73 Table 2 The Iranian Defence Budget,1968–1972 74 Table 3 Iranian Defence Expenditure as a Percentage of GNP 74 Table 4 Arms Transfer Agreements and Deliveries under the Foreign Military Sales Programme 75 Preface Historians often look for events which provide the punctuation marks of history. It can be argued that the British government’s decision in 1968 to withdraw forces from the Gulf by 1971 was a turning point of this kind. For reasons of Imperial strategic interest the Gulf was one of the first areas Britain controlled in the Mid- dle East; for domestic political and economic reasons it was the last from which Britain was to depart. The long history of British presence guaranteed the Gulf a prolonged stability unmatched elsewhere in the Middle East, and delayed the rise of historical, political and territorial disputes among countries on both sides of the waterway. At the same time it delayed the development of the small Arab emir- ates into independent political entities. The Pax Britannica collapsed in 1968; in the space of four years a viable state had to be carved out of scattered emirates along the Arab coast and borders de- fined; regional players had to find rules of common coexistence; and the nature of external-regional relations had to be redefined. For the first time in modern his- tory the Gulf was to become an autonomous sub-region in international politics. The manner in which these issues were resolved continues to be, in some cases, a source of instabilities and conflict to the present day. In the Gulf there was no world power waiting to succeed Britain. The United States was preoccupied with the Vietnam war, and the Soviet Union made no serious attempt to expand its influence in the region beyond Iraq and South Yemen. The USSR took account of the interests of its oil-producing allies, especially Iraq, vii v i i i iran, saudi arabia and the gulf in maintaining their trade with the West, and America’s sensitivity to the potential disruption of energy supplies. Hence, it developed a cautious and largely non- provocative policy aimed at developing long-term economic and political gains in the Gulf region.1 As a result, Gulf politics ‘went local’ and reflected the regional balance of power, with Iran as the dominant player. Existing literature on the subject tends to focus on the role played by external powers, mainly Britain, and treats the period 1968–1971 as the final episode of the British Empire in the Middle East.2 Works looking at the period from the local powers’ perspective remain relatively scarce.3 The fact is, however, that at a time when British power was in decline the superpowers never established unques- tioned dominance or control over the region.4 In such circumstances, as this book argues, a better understanding of the new Gulf order can be achieved by empha- sising local concerns and the degree to which regional powers influenced external powers’ Gulf policy in those formative years. The regional balance of power in the late 1960s and early 1970s calls for a focus on Iran’s role. Iran was by far the largest Gulf state. By the late 1960s it had a population of around 26 million, nearly 17 million more than the second largest state, Iraq. From the mid-1960s it had engaged in an extensive military build-up which exceeded those of its nearest regional rivals, Iraq and Saudi Arabia. Iran also had a rapidly growing economy supported from the early 1970s by increasing oil prices. In other words, Iran was, of all the local powers, in the best position to convert its national resources into strong political influence in the region. Two unique situations developed as a result: first Iran, which since its re-emer- gence as a centralised state under the Safavids had been surrounded by imperial powers (Russia, the Ottoman Empire and Britain), or by states with substantial territory (Afghanistan and Iraq), for the first time in 1968 had neighbouring coun- tries much smaller in size and possessing a great deal less power. Second, with its increasing military and economic capabilities, Iran was able to look for a security role beyond its territorial boundaries. This new configuration poses two interrelated questions: first how did Iran handle its regional relations given that it had little experience in direct dealing with lower Gulf Arabs apart from Saudi Arabia? Second, how did Iran influence efforts to reorder the Gulf’s political landscape? From these principle questions this book seeks to clarify how Iran’s Gulf policy was conducted and the diplomatic tools used to achieve policy goals, taking into consideration Iran’s own interests, the regional environment, and interaction with the international system. It was often said by Iranian officials that Iran’s interest in preface ix the Gulf was in playing a ‘leading role’. The term ‘leading role’ is elastic and spelt out can mean any of the following: a favourable settlement of territorial disputes, taking over military defence duties, playing a leading diplomatic role, or strongly influencing oil politics. Thus, Iranian aims will be viewed in the context of an interplay between its ambitions and the regional-international environments. At the regional level Iran was entering unknown political terrain as the Shah’s government was unsure of Arab reaction to its Gulf policy. At the international level it is argued here that the US had less influence on Iran than is often believed; rather, Iran applied its tradi- tional policy of playing one world power against the other. In the past such policy was chosen to maximise Iran’s territorial integrity. This time the aim was to win support for a long-awaited regional role. The book begins when the long-standing British order starts to collapse in the second half of the 1960s. Chapter I discusses the factors which led to the British decision to withdraw its forces from east of Suez by 1971 and the international setting at the time of the decision. It stresses the impact of the domestic political and economic factors which changed Britain’s international position under Wil- son’s Labour government. This chapter also pays attention to the American position and the difficulties the Lyndon B. Johnson administration faced in dealing with rising international challenges during the Vietnam war, as a consequence of which the US pressed Britain to maintain its Gulf position and refused to take over its role as guardian of the Gulf. The final section deals with the Iranian position, which changed as a result of three trends: Iran’s growing national power; the de- cline of British power; and America’s decision not to succeed Britain. Chapter 2 focuses on the Iranian reaction to proposals for the future of the Gulf during the first year of British withdrawal. Although Iran had interests in the Gulf the main theme of this chapter is that in 1968 Iran did not have a policy in place to protect those interests. The Iranian government had very little experience in dealing directly with the Gulf Arab rulers, and the Arab reaction to its claims in the Gulf was not fully anticipated. Iran began by taking a hard stance on its imme- diate territorial claims, mainly Bahrain, and strongly opposed the formation of the proposed Federation of Arab Emirates. However, it gradually modified its po- sition and reached an accommodation with Saudi Arabia, which led to bilateral territorial settlements with the Saudi Kingdom known as the Continental-Shelf Agreement. The historical claim to Bahrain was dropped in January 1969. Long- term questions over regional co-operation and the Iranian claim to the Hormuz islands were left unanswered.
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