Iran in Crisis?: Nuclear Ambitions and the American Response

241 Pages·2004·1.16 MB·English

by  Roger Howard

About the author
Roger Howard is a British freelance journalist who has travelled
widely throughout Iran. He has written extensively on issues of
defence and international relations for many newspapers and
journals. His work has appeared in the Daily Mail, for which he
covered the US-led war in Afghanistan, the New Statesman, the
Spectator, Middle East International, Jane’s Intelligence Review and
the US journal In the National Interest. He has also broadcast for
BBC World Service and for television networks. He took a First
in Modern History from Cambridge in 1988.
About this book
Is Iran at a crossroads? The recent US-led wars in Iraq and
Afghanistan have brought new opportunities and dangers that
could conceivably either herald a new rapprochement between
Tehran and Washington or else bring a sharp detorioration that
might perhaps spill over into confrontation. At home, profound
demographic changes would seem to make far-reaching political
changes appear inevitable in a country whose young population is
alienated from the clerical elite that pulls the strings of power.
This book looks at some of the causes of these domestic inter-
national tensions and considers some of the possible outcomes.
In particular, it asks:
• Is Iran really on the way to developing nuclear weapons?
• What is the Iranian ‘Qods Force’ doing in Iraq and Afghanistan?
And why?
• What are Iran’s connections with Middle East terror groups?
• Could Iran disintegrate if the current regime crumbles?
• How much of a threat to the regime do dissident organisations
pose?
The book explains the likely course of events in Iran and the
region for both general readers and specialists.

 
Iran in Crisis?
Nuclear ambitions and the American
response
Z
Zed Books
LONDON · NEW YORK
Iran in Crisis? Nuclear ambitions and the American response was
first published by Zed Books Ltd, 7 Cynthia Street, London 1
9,  and Room 400, 175 Fifth Avenue, New York,  10010,
 in 2004.
www.zedbooks.co.uk
Copyright © Roger Howard, 2004
The right of Roger Howard to be identified as the
author of this work has been asserted by him in accordance
with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act, 1988.
Cover designed by Andrew Corbett
Set in Monotype Dante and Gill Sans Heavy by Ewan Smith,
London
Printed and bound in Malta by Gutenberg Press Ltd
Distributed in the  exclusively by Palgrave Macmillan, a
division of St Martin’s Press, , 175 Fifth Avenue, New York,
 10010.
A catalogue record for this book is available from the British
Library.
  data is available from the Library of Congress.
All rights reserved
 1 84277 474 3 hb
 1 84277 475 1 pb
Contents
Acknowledgements |vi
Abbreviations and acronyms |vii
Introduction 1
PART I Iran and the USA 5
1 The American mind 7
2 Iran and international terror 43
3 The other domino effect 68
4 An Iranian bomb? 89
PART II Domestic crisis 117
5 Political tensions 119
6 Social and economic malaise 145
PART III Outcomes 163
7 Popular uprising 165
8 Dissidents 190
Conclusion 213
Select bibliography 220
Index 223
Acknowledgements
The author would like to thank Professor Sohrab Behdad, Mr Mehrdad
Farahmand, Sir David Gore-Booth, Lord Gilmour of Craigmillar, Mr
Nigel Laird, Dr Ali Nourizadeh, Mr Ahmed Rashid, Mr David Reddaway,
Sir Alfred Sherman and Mr Michael Thomas. I am also particularly
grateful to Mr Alan George, author of Syria: Neither Bread Nor Freedom,
and to my editors at Zed, Dr Anna Hardman and Mr Robert Molteno,
for commissioning the project and for their comments on parts of the
draft text. But I am grateful above all to my parents for their unfailing
support and encouragement.
Roger Howard
Oxford, February 2004
Abbreviations and acronyms
AEAI Atomic Energy Association of Iran
AEI American Enterprise Institute
AFP Agence France Presse
AP Associated Press
APOC Anglo-Persian Oil Company
BBG Broadcasting Board of Governors (USA)
CIA Central Intelligence Agency
CIS Commonwealth of Independent States (former Soviet Union)
CSIS Center for Strategic and International Studies
DIO Defence Industries Organization (Iran)
EU European Union
FBI Federal Bureau of Investigation
FYDP Five-Year Development Plan (Iran)
GDP Gross Domestic Product
HEU heavily enriched uranium
IAEA International Atomic Energy Agency
IAF Israeli Air Force
ICO Islamic Conference Organization
IDF Israeli Defence Force
IELTS Internal English Language Testing System
IFM Iran’s Freedom Movement
ILSA Iran–Libya Sanctions Act
IMF International Monetary Fund
IRGC Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps
IRNA Iranian Republic News Agency
ISI Inter-Services Intelligence (Pakistan)
ISP Internet Service Provider
JINSA Jewish Institute of National Security Affairs
KDP Kurdistan Democracy Party
KDPI Kurdish Democratic Party of Iran
LEF Law Enforcement Forces (Iran)
LV Landesamt für Verfassungsschutz (Germany)
MKO Mujahideen-e Khalq Organization
MOIS Ministry of Intelligence and Security (Iran)
NAM Non-Aligned Movement
NCRI National Council of Resistance of Iran
NNPT Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty
NYPD New York Police Department
OCU Office to Consolidate Unity (Iran)
OPEC Organization of Petroleum-Exporting Countries
OSP Office of Special Plans (USA)
PFLP Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine
PIJ Palestinian Islamic Jihad
PKK Partiya Karkeren Kurdistan (Kurdistan Workers’ Party)
PMOI People’s Mujahideen Organization of Iran
PUK Patriotic Union of Kurdistan
RPG rocket-propelled grenade
S3 Shahab 3 (Iranian missile)
SANAM Southern Azerbaijan National Awareness Movement
SCIRI Supreme Council of Islamic Revolution in Iraq
SNSC Supreme National Security Council (Iran)
SOE state-owned enterprises
VEVAK Vezarat-e Ettel’at va Amniat-e Keshvar (Iran)
VOA Voice of America
WMD weapons of mass destruction
WTC World Trade Center
WTO World Trade Organization
Introduction
Like many other terms, ‘crisis’ is an over-used word that has become
devalued by its frequent but misplaced reference to any scenario in which
an unusual level of drama is played out. In its proper sense, however,
it clearly refers to a pivotal moment at which a process of transition
climaxes and a future is determined.
Without the benefit of hindsight, it is of course impossible to judge
if Iran is indeed fast approaching any such turning point. From the
moment of its inception the present regime has often appeared to be
in a state of crisis, but has nevertheless defied all predictions by some-
how struggling through, just as there have been many other occasions
when dramatic, rapid change has eventuated against all expectation:
the political turbulence that began in the autumn of 1978 and led to
Islamic revolution the following winter, for example, was not widely
foreseen in a country that was famously described by President Jimmy
Carter in December 1977 as ‘an island of stability’. There are, however,
convincing reasons to suppose that, at some point in the future, Iran
will witness a crisis point at which the present regime will effectively
survive or disappear and that its relationship with the United States
could change dramatically, either by sharp deterioration or because of
a thawing of the ice that has held the two countries apart since the
Islamic Revolution.
The most powerful force pressing for sweeping political reforms
within the country is demographic change. Iran, in sharp contrast to
most Western countries, has a predominantly young population whose
values and attitudes differ profoundly from those who pull the strings
of political power. Remembering nothing of the events of 1979, much
of this upcoming generation shares none of the common memories and
experiences that shaped the Revolution but is instead heavily influenced
by Western ways of life whose images are broadcast by satellite tele-
vision and disseminated by the Internet. This generation gap becomes
immediately obvious to any Western visitor to the country, for in the
streets of today’s Iran, Islamic decree is openly defied by young couples
who hold hands and by increasing numbers of young women who re-
vealingly push back their traditional headscarf (hijab). In the privacy of
their homes, many press the case for democratic and secular rule.