Iran and the Bomb: The Abdication of International Responsibility

160 Pages·2007·0.63 MB·English

by  Thérèse Delpech

IRAN ANd the BOMB
The CERI Series in Comparative Politics
and International Studies
Series editor christophe jaffrelot
this series consists of translations of noteworthy publications in the
social sciences emanating from the foremost French research centre in
international studies, the Paris-based Centre d’Études et de Recher-
ches Internationales (CeRI), part of Sciences Po and associated with
the CNRS (Centre National de la Recherche scientifique).
the focus of the series is the transformation of politics and soci-
ety by transnational and domestic factors—globalisation, migration
and the postbipolar balance of power on the one hand, and ethnicity
and religion on the other. States are more permeable to external
influence than ever before and this phenomenon is accelerating
processes of social and political change the world over. In seeking
to understand and interpret these transformations, this series gives
priority to social trends from below as much as the interventions of
state and non-state actors.
Founded in 1952, CeRI has fifty full-time fellows drawn from dif-
ferent disciplines conducting research on comparative political analy-
sis, international relations, regionalism, transnational flows, political
sociology, political economy and on individual states.
thérèse delpech
Iran and the Bomb
The Abdication of International
Responsibility
tRANSlAted FROM the FReNCh
By ROS SChwARtz
Columbia University Press
New york

In association with the Centre d’Études et de
Recherches Internationales, Paris
First published in 2006 by Éditions Autrement, Paris,
as L’Iran, la bombe et la démission des nations
© Éditions Autrement, 2006
Columbia University Press
Publishers Since 1893
New york
© thérèse delpech, 2007
english translation © CeRI, Paris, 2006
translated from the French by Ros Schwartz
All rights reserved.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
delpech, thérèse.
[Iran, la bombe et la démission des nations. english]
Iran and the bomb : the abdication of international responsibility /
thérèse delpech ; translated from the French By Ros Schwartz.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 978-0-231-70006-1 (hardback : alk. paper)
1. Nuclear nonproliferation--Iran. 2. Iran--Foreign relations--
1997- 3. world politics--1989- I. Schwartz, Ros. II. title.
Jz5665.d4513 2007
327.1’7470955--dc22
2007020770
CONteNtS
Acknowledgements page vi
Preface by George Perkovich ix
Introduction 1
1. Iran: indisputable military nuclear ambitions 7
2. europe: an increasingly controversial strategy 25
3. America: in a state of paralysis? 33
4. Russia: an unreliable partner 39
5. China: a close ally for Iran 47
6. Pakistan: clandestine supplier, uneasy neighbour 53
7. India: energy needs and rapprochement with washington 59
8. Israel: an existential threat 65
9. North Korea: a role model? 71
10. egypt: the opportunity to rethink its defence policy? 75
11. Saudi Arabia: open rivalry in the Gulf 79
12. South Africa: an ambiguous player 83
13. the IAeA: no referral to the Security Council 87
Conclusion 95
Notes 109
Chronology 123
Bibliography 141
Index 145
v
Acknowledgements
I should like to thank Christophe Jaffrelot and henry dougier for
instigating this project, Michael dwyer for his support and Ros
Schwartz for the intelligence and dedication that she brought to the
translation.
Paris, September, 2006 t.d.
“Iran says the opposite of what it thinks and does the opposite of what
it says, which does not necessarily mean that it does the opposite of
what it thinks.”
A western diplomat serving in tehran.
ARMENIA AZERBAIJAN N
TURKMENISTAN
TURKEY Tabriz CaSsepaian 0 125
km
Mo’allem
Kalaych
Karaj
Ramandeh Damavand
Lashkar TEHRAN
Abad Qom A
F
Arak Natanz GH
A
N
Isfahan
Saghand IS
IRAQ T
Darkhovin Yazd AN
Ardakan
KUWAIT Bushehr Shiraz Fasa PAKISTAN
Persian
Gulf Gchine Mine
the main nuclear sitBeAHsRAIN
Strait
SAUDI of Hormuz
ARABIA
QATAR Gulf of
Oman
U.A.E. OMAN
PReFACe
Iran presents the international community with one of its greatest
long-term challenges. the enormous area between Gaza and Af-
ghanistan is vital to the future of international well-being. It spans
the Middle east and the Persian Gulf, reaches in to Central and
South Asia and holds energy resources on which much of the world’s
economic prospects hinge. It contains explosive conflicts between
Israel and the Palestinians and their supporters; between the United
States and the militants who want it to drive it from this part of the
world; between Sunnis and Shiites; and between various autocracies
and their frustrated citizens. Iran plays an increasingly central role
in all of these conflicts and in the future of the entire region. It is
the most populous country. Its overall energy resources are unsur-
passed. Its population is the best educated and trained outside of
Israel. Its civil society is the most vibrant, even as it faces increasing
governmental repression. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards and other
clandestine actors also encourage and facilitate much of the violence
and insecurity that others in the region fear.
If all of these concerns and issues were not enough, there is
evidence that Iran is pursuing uranium enrichment and plutonium
production capabilities that make sense only if Iranian leaders wish
to be able to build nuclear weapons. If Iran’s neighbors and other
international players, including Israel and the United States, per-
ceive that it has acquired a nuclear weapons capability, dangerous
ix
x
instability will follow. Some countries, perhaps including egypt,
Saudi Arabia and turkey, will be tempted to match Iran at least by
acquiring similar nuclear fuel production technologies. Some will
be tempted to get tougher with Iran, and perhaps to strike militarily
at it, unleashing a cycle of violent Iranian reaction. Some will be
intimidated. A militant Iranian government that gains widespread
popularity by threatening Israel and resisting the west may bolster
the intensity and destructiveness of violent extremists in lebanon,
the Palestinian territories, Iraq, and elsewhere.
the implications of Iran’s current and future policies, and the
scope of its nuclear program, require exploration in a book, one
that should also consider what has been and could be done to modify
Iran’s nuclear ambitions and make them more compatible with in-
ternational peace and security. France, Germany, the United King-
dom, Russia, China, the european Union, the International Atomic
energy Agency, the United States and the UN Security Council all
have been trying to alter Iran’s behaviour – but we need delpech’s
Iran and the Bomb to help explain what they have been doing and
what still needs to be done.
Fortunately, therese delpech has produced such a book. this is
fortunate not only because the subject matter is of vital importance,
but also because she is an exceptionally well qualified author. She
is highly informed about the Iranian nuclear program and the ef-
forts to deal with it, as she has been involved with this challenge
for more than a decade as a French government official. And she is
a highly regarded strategist and historian of nuclear weapons, and
hence can place the Iranian challenge in several contexts. delpech
is also an exceptionally lucid and trenchant writer: her recent book,
L’Ensauvagement, won the Femina Prize, one of France’s great liter-
ary awards, and will be published in english in early 2007 by the
Carnegie endowment for International Peace. with an author
possessing these attributes, delpech offers readers an outstandingly
capable and enjoyable guide through a troubling subject. there is