iran, afghanistan, and tajikistan alliance

119 Pages·2010·1.87 MB·English

by  Azadeh Joharifard

IRAN, AFGHANISTAN, AND TAJIKISTAN ALLIANCE:
ASSESSING THE POTENTIAL OF A PERSIAN-SPEAKING
ASSOCIATION

by

Azadeh Joharifard
B.A., Simon Fraser University, 2008

PROJECT SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF
THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF

MASTER OF ARTS IN INTERNATIONAL STUDIES

In the
School for International Studies

© Azadeh Joharifard 2010
SIMON FRASER UNIVERSITY
Fall 2010

All rights reserved. However, in accordance with the Copyright Act of Canada, this work
may be reproduced, without authorization, under the conditions for Fair Dealing.
Therefore, limited reproduction of this work for the purposes of private study, research,
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particularly if cited appropriately.
APPROVAL
Name: Azadeh Joharifard
Degree: Master of Arts in International Studies
Title of Thesis: Iran, Afghanistan, and Tajikistan Alliance: Assessing the
Potential of a Persian-Speaking Association
Examining Committee:
Chair: Dr. John Harriss
Professor of International Studies
___________________________________________
Stephen T. Easton
Senior Supervisor
Professor of International Studies
___________________________________________
Michael C. Howard
Supervisor
Professor of International Studies
Date Approved: December 15 2010
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Last revision: Spring 09
ABSTRACT
Iran has suggested the formation of a Persian-speaking Association in
collaboration with Afghanistan and Tajikistan, a collaboration that focuses on facilitating
trilateral trade. Using the gravity model of trade, the author confirms that creating this
regional trade association would potentially result in considerable increase in trade
among these states. This study further evaluates Iran’s use of the Persian identity,
language and culture to unite itself with Tajikistan and Afghanistan, in order to position
itself as a contender for regional superpower status. Iran’s motives for creating the
Association are as follows: increasing its influence in Tajikistan and Afghanistan; acting
as a counter-balance to TÜRKSOY and the League of Arab States; preventing the
increasing dominance of Russia in Tajikistan; alleviating the consequences of the
American and NATO presence in Afghanistan; and increasing trade and finding new
economic partners in the wake of the external sanctions due to its nuclear plans.
Keywords: Iran; Afghanistan; Tajikistan; Persian language; Central Asia; Middle East;
Regional Trade Agreements; Gravity Model; Language-based Associations, Regionalism;
Hegemony.

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“By union the smallest states thrive.
By discord the greatest are destroyed”
-Sallust

for my brother, Amir
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

I owe a great debt of gratitude to Dr. Stephen T. Easton, my distinguished M.A
project supervisor, for his guidance, support and encouragement throughout the process
of preparing this work. I am also sincerely thankful to other faculty and staff at Simon
Fraser University’s School for International Studies, particularly Dr. John Harriss. I
would also like to thank Jon Scott, Michael Howard, Jeffery Checkel, Alvaro Pereira, and
Kanya Adam for an outstanding academic experience in which I am proud to have
participated.
I am also grateful to my parents, Mahmoud Joharifard and Mansoureh
Shahrokhinejad for their incredible support. I would also like to thank my friends -from
Tehran to Vancouver- who have supported me during this project. In particular, Shannon
Merrill Shirreff, Crystal Gilhooly, Iman Khalili and Pouneh Naderi, also my magnificent
colleagues at the MAIS program for their encouragement and friendship.

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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Approval.............................................................................................................................ii

Abstract.............................................................................................................................iii

Acknowledgements..............................................................................................................v

Table of Contents................................................................................................................vi

List of Figures...................................................................................................................viii

List of Tables......................................................................................................................ix

1: Introduction...................................................................................................................1

1.1
 The Trend Toward Regionalism....................................................................................1

1.2
 Methodology...............................................................................................................8

2: Iran, Tajikistan and Afghanistan Overview..................................................................12

2.1
 The Islamic Republic of Iran.......................................................................................12

2.2
 The Republic of Tajikistan..........................................................................................15

2.3
 The Islamic Republic of Afghanistan...........................................................................19

2.4
 The History of the Persian Language in Central Asia.....................................................23

3: Persian Identity Versus Other Direct Competitors........................................................25

3.1
 The League of Arab States and the Rise of Iran ............................................................26

3.2
 Turkey’s Regional Influence.......................................................................................28

4: The Spillover Effect......................................................................................................30

4.1
 The Regional Ethnic Mixing Challenge........................................................................30

4.2
 Iran-Afghanistan Spillover..........................................................................................31

4.2.1
 Afghan’s narcotics problem and Iran................................................................32

4.2.2
 Afghan refugees in Iran...................................................................................33

4.3
 Tajikistan-Afghanistan Spillover.................................................................................34

4.3.1
 Tajikistan’s current health and economic issues related to Afghanistan................36

5: Tajikistan’s Geo-Political Importance for Iran.............................................................38

5.1
 Tajik’s Cultural Affinity With Iran..............................................................................38

5.2
 Tajikistan’s Geographical Appeal................................................................................41

5.3
 Iran’s Strong Presence in Tajikistan.............................................................................42

5.4
 Iran’s Underlying Intention for Participating in Transportation Projects..........................46

5.5
 Tajikistan Role in Iran’s Bid to Become a Full Member in the Shanghai
Cooperation Organization...........................................................................................48

5.6
 Tajikistan’s Position Regarding Iran’s Controversial Policies.........................................49

5.7
 Obstacles to Iran’s Increased Influence in Tajikistan.....................................................50

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6: The Rise of Iran and the Russian-Iranian Dynamics in Tajikistan.................................57

6.1
 Frictions in Russian-Tajik Relations............................................................................58

6.2
 Iran’s Policy Towards Russia in Tajikistan...................................................................61

6.2.1
 Iran’s role in peace negotiations in Tajikistan....................................................62

7: Iran’s Role in Afghanistan............................................................................................64

7.1
 Iran’s Recent Economic Support.................................................................................65

7.2
 Iran-Afghanistan Relations.........................................................................................66

7.3
 The Paradox of the American Presence in Afghanistan..................................................68

8: Current Success of the Persian-Speaking Association....................................................72

8.1
 The First International Conference of Persian Speakers.................................................72

8.2
 The Three Countries’ Cooperation...............................................................................72

8.3
 Criticism of the Persian-Speaking Association..............................................................77

9: Economic Calculations.................................................................................................82

9.1
 The Gravity Model.....................................................................................................85

9.2
 Preferential Trade Agreements....................................................................................91

10: Conclusion..................................................................................................................94

10.1
 Looking Ahead/ Further Research...............................................................................95

Appendices....................................................................................................................97

Appendix 1........................................................................................................................98

Appendix 2........................................................................................................................99

Reference List................................................................................................................103


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LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1: Map of Persian Language in the Region.................................................................24

Figure 2: Map of Ethnicity Mixing in the Region..................................................................98

Figure 3: Trade Creation...................................................................................................100

Figure 4: Trade Diversion.................................................................................................101


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LIST OF TABLES
Table 1: Country Comparison, 2009 data......................................................................................83
Table 2: Gravity Model Estimation...............................................................................................88
Table 3: GDP and PCI in 2005......................................................................................................89
Table 4: Iran’s predicted export to Afghanistan and Tajikistan (000, $US)..................................89
Table 5: Cross-Border Trading Costs in 2008 in Persian-Speaking States and OECD.................90

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