Investing in Science Investing in Science Social Cost- Benefit Analy sis of Research Infrastructures Massimo Florio The MIT Press Cambridge, Mas sa chu setts London, England © 2019 Mas sa chu setts Institute of Technology All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from the publisher. This book was set in Times New Roman by Westchester Publishing Serv ices. Printed and bound in the United States of Ameri ca. Library of Congress Cataloging-i n- Publication Data Names: Florio, Massimo, author. Title: Investing in science : social cost-benefit analysis of research infrastructures / Massimo Florio. Description: Cambridge, MA : The MIT Press, [2019] | Includes bibliographical references and index. Identifiers: LCCN 2019006862 | ISBN 9780262043199 (hardcover : alk. paper) Subjects: LCSH: Science—Social aspects. | Science and state. | Science and the arts. | Discoveries in science—Social aspects. Classification: LCC Q125 .F5845 2019 | DDC 338.9/26—dc23 LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2019006862 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Contents List of Abbreviations vii List of Main Variables xiii Introduction: Beyond Big Science, the Research Infrastructure Paradigm 1 1 The Evaluation Framework: A Cost- Benefit Analy sis Model 23 2 Costs and Financial Sustainability of Research Infrastructures 53 3 Benefits to Scientists: Producing and Using Knowledge Output 83 4 Students and Postdoctoral Researchers: The Effects of Research Infrastructures on Human Capital 109 5 The Direct Effect on Firms: Knowledge Spillovers and Learning 131 6 Benefits to Users of Information Technology in the Big Data Era 161 7 Users of Science- Based Innovations 191 8 Outreach and Benefits to Users of Cultural Goods 227 9 Taxpayers: Science as a Global Public Good 249 10 The (Expected Net Pres ent) Value of Investing in Discovery 273 Epilogue 299 vi Contents Acknowl edgments 305 Notes 309 References 323 Index 355 List of Abbreviations ADC Analog- to- digital converter AIRC Italian Association for Research on Cancer ALICE Accelerators and L asers In Combined Experiments ALS Advanced light source APIs Application programming interfaces ARPANET Advanced Research Proje cts Agency Network ASI Italian Space Agency ASTERICS Astronomy ESFRI and Research Infrastructure Cluster ATLAS A Toroidal LHC ApparatuS BCG Boston Consulting Group BCR Benefit- cost ratio BRC Bioinformatics resource center CAD Canadian dollars CAFÉ Clean Air for Eur ope Caltech California Institute of Technology CBA Cost-b enefit analy sis CE Cost- effectiveness CERN Eu ro pean Organi zation for Nuclear Research CET CERN Expenditure Tracking CHF Swiss franc CML Chronic myeloid leukemia CMS Compact Muon Solenoid CNAO National Centre of Oncological Hadrontherapy COSMO SkyMed Constellation of small Satellites for Mediterranean Basin Observation CPI Consumer price index cryoEM Cryogenic electron microscopy CT Computerized tomography CV Capital value CVM Contingent valuation method DCF Discounted cash flow DoE (US) Department of Energy DSP Data science platform EARSC Eu ro pean Association of Remote Sensing Companies viii List of Abbreviations EBI Eu ro pean Bioinformatics Institute EBIT Earnings before interest and taxes EBITDA Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization ECR Early career researcher EGA Eu ro pean Genome-P henome Archive ELI Extreme Light Infrastructure EMBL Eu ro pean Molecular Biology Laboratory ENA Eu ro pean Nucleotide Archive ENPV Economic net pres ent value ENVISAT Earth Observation Environmental Satellite EPO Eu ro pean Patent Office ESA Eu ro pean Space Agency ESFRI Eu ro pean Strategy Forum on Research Infrastructures ESRF Eu ro pean Synchrotron Radiation Fa cili ty EST Eu ro pean Solar Telescope ETS Emissions trading system EU Eu ro pean Union EU- SILC European Community Statistics on Income and Living Conditions EVRI Environmental Valuation Reference Inventory EXV Existence value FCC Future Circular Collider FDR Financial discount rate FFRDC Federally Funded Research and Development Center FIRR Financial Internal Rate of Return FMDV Foot and mouth disease virus FNPV Financial net pres ent value FTEs Full- time equivalent employees FTIR Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy FY Fiscal year GATC G, A, T, and C (guanine, adenine, thymine, cytosine) GATK Genome Analy sis Toolkit GDP Gross domestic product GERD Gross domestic expenditure in R&D GHG Green house gas GPS Global positioning system GRI Global research infrastructure GTC Gran Telescopio Canarias HECToR High- End Computing Terascale Resource HEP High- energy physics HGP Human Genome Proj ect HIV Human immunodeficiency virus HL High- Luminosity HMS Her Majesty’s Ship HPA Human Protein Atlas HTML Hypertext Markup Language List of Abbreviations ix HTTP Hypertext Transfer Protocol HUGO Human Genome Organisation ICT Information and communication technology IMF International Monetary Fund IMPLAN IMpact Analys is for PLANning INFN Instituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare I- O Input- output IOP Institute of Physics IPR Intellectual property rights IRR Internal rate of return ISS International Space Station IT Information technology IV Instrumental variable ITER International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor JASPERS Joint Assistance to Support Proje cts in Eur o pean Regions JAXA Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency JPO Japan Patent Office KSC Kennedy Space Center KT Knowledge transfer LBLN Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory LE Light echo LEP Large Electron-P ositron Collider LHC Large Hadron Collider LIGO Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory LNA Low noise amplifier LSST Large Synoptic Survey Telescope MCCT Multicenter clinical trial in medical research MICE Muon Ionisation Cooling Experiment MIT Mas sa chu setts Institute of Technology MPC Marginal production cost MRI Magnetic resonance imaging MSV Marginal social value NACE National Association of Colleges and Employers NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration NCHGR National Center for Human Genome Research NEEDS New Energy Externalities Development for Sustainability NGI National Graphene Institute NH3 Ammonia NIAID National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases NIH National Institutes of Health NMR Nuclear magnetic resonance NMVOC Nonmethane volatile organic compound NOAA National Oceanographic and Atmosphere Administration NOx Nitrogen oxide