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470 Pages·2012·5.59 MB·English

by  World Bank Group

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Migration and Remittances during the
Global Financial Crisis and Beyond

Migration and Remittances during the
Global Financial Crisis and Beyond
Edited by
Ibrahim Sirkeci
Jeffrey H. Cohen
Dilip Ratha
Washington, D.C.
© 2012 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / International Development
Association or Th e World Bank
1818 H Street NW
Washington DC 20433
Telephone: [phone]
Internet: www.worldbank.org
1 2 3 4 15 14 13 12
Th is volume is a product of the staff of Th e World Bank with external contributions. Th e
fi ndings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this volume do not necessarily refl ect the
views of Th e World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent.
Th e World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work.
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territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries.
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All other queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be
addressed to the Offi ce of the Publisher, Th e World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC
20433, USA; fax: [phone]; e-mail: [email protected].
ISBN (paper): 978-0-8213-8826-6
ISBN (electronic): 978-0-8213-8827-3
DOI: 10.1596/978-0-8213-8826-6
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Migration and remittances during the global fi nancial crisis and beyond / edited by Ibrahim
Sirkeci, Jeff rey H. Cohen and Dilip Ratha.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 978-0-8213-8826-6 — ISBN 978-0-8213-8827-3 (electronic)
1. Emigration and immigration—Economic aspects. 2. Global Financial Crisis, 2008-2009.
3. Immigrants—Economic aspects. 4. Emigrant remittances—Cross-cultural studies. I. Sirkeci,
Ibrahim. II. Cohen, Jeff rey H. (Jeff rey Harris) III. Ratha, Dilip.
JV6217.M545 2011
332’.04246090511—dc23
2011032374
Cover image: Diana Ong/Superstock by Getty Images
Cover design: Critical Stages
Contents
Foreword ............................................................................................................................xv
Otaviano Canuto and Hans Timmer
Acknowledgments ...........................................................................................................xvii
Contributors ......................................................................................................................xix
Abbreviations .................................................................................................................xxvii
Introduction: Remittance Flows and Practices during the Crisis ......................................1
Ibrahim Sirkeci, Jeff rey H. Cohen, and Dilip Ratha
PART I
Chapter 1. Theoretical Appraisal: Understanding Remittances ......................................15
Jeff rey H. Cohen and Ibrahim Sirkeci
Chapter 2. Forecasting Migrant Remittances during the Global Financial Crisis ...........23
Sanket Mohapatra and Dilip Ratha
Chapter 3. Economic Crises and Migration: Learning from the Past and the Present ...35
Tim Green and L. Alan Winters
Chapter 4. Remittance Flow, Working Capital Formation, and Economic Growth ........53
Gabriela Mundaca
PART II
Chapter 5. The Financial Crisis in the Gulf and Its Impact on
South Asian Migration and Remittances ..........................................................................67
S. Irudaya Rajan and D. Narayana
Chapter 6. Gendered Use of Remittances: The United Arab Emirates–Bangladesh
Remittance Corridor .........................................................................................................81
Md Mizanur Rahman and Danièle Bélanger
Chapter 7 Trends and Correlates of Remittances to India .............................................93
Poonam Gupta and Karan Singh
v
vi l CONTENTS
Chapter 8. Shocks Affecting the Flow and Stability of Workers’
Remittances to India .......................................................................................................107
Bhupal Singh
Chapter 9. Migrant Remittances in Nepal: Impact of Global Financial Crisis and
Policy Options ................................................................................................................121
Sanket Mohapatra, Dilip Ratha, and Ani Silwal
Chapter 10. Nepal: Migration History and Trends ........................................................137
Jeevan Raj Sharma
Chapter 11. Resilience of Remittances during the Global Financial Crisis and the
Entrenchment of Migration ............................................................................................141
Andrea Riester
Chapter 12. Rural-Urban Migration in the Context of Thailand’s Ongoing Uneven
Development .................................................................................................................149
Gregory S. Gullette
Chapter 13. Migration and Remittances in Bangladesh and Pakistan:
Evidence from Two Host Countries ...............................................................................153
Guntur Sugiyarto, Carlos Vargas-Silva, and Shikha Jha
Chapter 14. Impacts of the Crisis on Migrants and Their Families:
A Case Study from Bangladesh ......................................................................................171
Guntur Sugiyarto, Selim Raihan, Carlos Vargas-Silva, and Shikha Jha
PART III
Chapter 15. The Impact of the Financial Crisis on Remittance Flows:
The Case of El Salvador ..................................................................................................183
Pablo Acosta, Javier Baez, Rodolfo Beazley, and Edmundo Murrugarra
Chapter 16. Remittance Flows to Mexico and Employment and Total Earnings of
Mexican Immigrant Workers in the United States .........................................................193
Jesús A. Cervantes González and Alejandro Barajas del Pino
PART IV
Chapter 17. The Impact of the Global Economic Downturn on Remittances
from the European Union ...............................................................................................215
Oscar Gómez Lacalle
Chapter 18. Remittances and Evolving Migration Flows from Central and
Eastern Europe to the United Kingdom .........................................................................227
Simon Pemberton and Lisa Scullion
Chapter 19. Effects of the Global Crisis on Migration and Remittances in Albania ....237
Ilir Gedeshi and Nicolaas de Zwager
Chapter 20. The Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on Migration to and
Remittance Flows from Spain .........................................................................................255
Marta Roig and Joaquín Recaño-Valverde
PART V
Chapter 21. Forecasting Turkish Workers’ Remittances from Germany
during the Financial Crisis ..............................................................................................273
Şule Akkoyunlu
CONTENTS l vii
Chapter 22. Remittances in an Environment of Human Insecurity:
The Kurdish Case ............................................................................................................289
Ibrahim Sirkeci
Chapter 23. Financial Crisis and Remittances from Denmark to Turkey .......................295
Pinar Yazgan and Ibrahim Sirkeci
Chapter 24. Work and Remittance Patterns of Irregular Immigrants in Turkey ............303
Oğuzhan Ömer Demir and M. Alper Sozer
PART VI
Chapter 25. Labor Migration, Overseas Remittances, and Local Outcomes in the
Contemporary Philippines ..............................................................................................315
Ty Matejowsky
Chapter 26. The New Zealand–Pacifi c Remittance Corridor:
Lowering Remittance Costs ............................................................................................319
Don Abel and Kim Hailwood
Chapter 27. Role of Trade Openness, Remittances, Capital Infl ows, and Financial
Development in Vanuatu ................................................................................................325
Ronald R. Kumar
PART VII
Chapter 28. Remittances to Sub-Saharan Africa in the Wake of a Financial Crisis:
Source of Resilience or Vulnerability? .............................................................................337
Wim Naudé and Henri Bezuidenhout
Chapter 29. From Shock Absorber to Shock Transmitter:
Determinants of Remittances in Sub-Saharan Africa......................................................349
Raju Jan Singh
Chapter 30. A Comparative Examination of Women’s Remittance Practices in
Two Somali Communities: Johannesburg, South Africa, and Columbus, Ohio .............359
Marnie Shaff er
PART VIII
Chapter 31. The Global Crisis and Expatriates’ Remittances to Lebanon ....................365
Nassib Ghobril
Chapter 32. Migrant Transfers in the MENA Region: A Two-Way Street in Which
Traffi c Is Changing ..........................................................................................................377
George Naufal and Carlos Vargas-Silva
Bibliography ....................................................................................................................387
Index ...............................................................................................................................421
Figures
I.1 Resilience of Remittances Compared to Other Financial Flows to Developing
Countries .........................................................................................................................................2
3.1 Real GDP per Capita with and without the Current Crisis, 1980–2013 ..........................37
3.2 Population of Ireland during the Nineteenth Century ........................................................38
viii l CONTENTS
3.3 Emigration from the British Isles to the United States and British GDP Growth,
1831–1913 .....................................................................................................................................40
3.4 Emigration of British Citizens from the British Isles to the United States and
British GDP Growth, 1853–1913 .............................................................................................40
3.5 (Lagged) Emigration of British Citizens from the British Isles to the United States
and British GDP Growth, 1853–1913 .....................................................................................41
3.6 Emigration to the United States from Five European Countries and U.S. GDP
Growth, 1870–1913 ....................................................................................................................41
3.7 Emigration Rates to the United States, 1860–1913 ..............................................................42
3.8 GDP Growth, Th en and Now ....................................................................................................46
3.9 Change in Unemployment Rates for Native- and Foreign-Born Workers, Selected
OECD Countries, Th ird Quarter 2008 to Th ird Quarter 2009 .........................................51
6.1 Bangladeshi Labor Migration to the United Arab Emirates, 1976–2010 .........................84
6.2 Infl ows of Remittances from the United Arab Emirates to Bangladesh, 1998–2011 ....84
7.1 Remittances to India ...................................................................................................................94
7.2 Current Account Infl ows, 1991–2009 .....................................................................................95
7.3 Net Remittances versus Net Capital Infl ows, 1991–2009 ...................................................96
8.1 Structure of Workers’ Remittances to India, 1975–2010 .................................................108
8.2 Impulse Response of Workers’ Remittances to Various Shocks in Model 1 ................115
8.3 Impulse Response of Workers’ Remittances to Various Shocks in Model 2 ................116
8.4 Annual Growth Rate in Workers’ Remittance Infl ows to India, 1992–2010 ................117
9.1 Primary Destinations of Nepalese Migrants, Excluding India,
1999–2000 to 2009–10 ...........................................................................................................123
9.2 Growth in Remittances and Other Sources of External Finance Sent to Nepal,
1996–2010 ..................................................................................................................................125
9.3 Remittances to Nepal during the Crisis, April 2007–October 2010 ..............................127
9.4 Growth in Mobile Phone Subscriptions in Nepal, 2003–08 ............................................131
13.1 Remittances to Bangladesh .....................................................................................................156
13.2 Remittances to Pakistan ..........................................................................................................156
13.3 Remittances from the United Kingdom to Bangladesh ....................................................159
13.4 Remittances from the United States to Bangladesh ..........................................................159
13.5 Labor Force Participation Rate of Asians in the United States .......................................161
13.6 Unemployment Rate of Asians in the United States .........................................................161
13.7 Number of Bangladesh and Pakistan Nationals Currently Residing in the
United Kingdom .......................................................................................................................164
13.8 Unemployment Rate of Th ose Born in Pakistan and Bangladesh Currently
Residing in the United Kingdom ...........................................................................................164
13.9 Unemployment Rate of Nationals of Pakistan and Bangladesh Currently
Residing in the United Kingdom ...........................................................................................165
13.10 U.S. Dollar and U.K. Pound Exchange Rate with Respect to Bangladeshi Taka ..........168
13.11 U.S. Dollar and U.K. Pound Exchange Rate with Respect to Pakistani Rupee .............168
14.1 Knowledge about the Global Financial Crisis ....................................................................173
14.2 Expected Period of Impact of Global Financial Crisis According to Households
Reporting Relatively or Very Good Knowledge .................................................................173