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X MARKS FACING WORST FISCAL ART MADE THE SPOT CRISIS IN DECADES, ONLINE, OFA NEW YORK CONSIDERS SOLVING FARAWAY Weekend BORROWING BILLIONS PROBLEMS ack PAGE6 | BUSINESS IN Aiasy’ ences WORLD DESIGNING DWELLINGS | “"""°4° EN ROUTE TO THE PAGE 15 | FOR NICER LOCKDOWN PAGE 10 | INTERNATIONAL HOMES SPACE STATION, WITH A TUXEDO LOOK PAGE 16 | STYLE Che New York Cime INTERNATIONAL EDITION | SATURDAY-SUNDAY, MAY 30-31, 2020 In America, economics of not dying Paul Krugman “OPINION ‘America snow engagedin avast, dan- gerous experiment. Although social distancing has limited the spread of the coronavirus, itis far from contained. Yet despite warnings from epidemiologists, ‘much of the country is moving to open upfor business as usual. ‘You might think that such amomen- tous move would come with elaborate justifications —that politicians pushing ‘an end tosocial distancing, from Donald ‘Trump ondown, would atleast try to explain why we should take this risk, Butthose calling for quickly reopening have been notably silent about the —____rrade-offsinvolved. Instead, they talk essantly about the What good is increasing the GDP. in the U: ifit kills you? ‘Thatis, however, a very bad way to think about economic policy in a pandemic. ‘What, after alls the economy's purpose? If your answer is something. like, “To generate incomes thatlet people buy things," you're getting it ‘wrong —money isn’t the ultimate goal; it'sjustameanstoanend,namely, improving the quality of fe. Now, money matters: Thereisaclear relationship between income and life satisfaction, Butit'snotthe only thing that matters. In particular, you know what also makes a major contribution to the quality of life? Notdying. ‘And when wetaketthe value of not dying into account, the rush toreopen looks likea really bad idea, terms of economics properly under- stood. ‘You might be temptedto say that we can't put aprice on human life. Butif you think about it, that’s silly; we doitall the time, We spend alot on highway safety, but not enough to eliminate every prevent- able fatal accident. We regulate busi nesses to avoid lethal pollution, even KRUGMAN, PAGE 14 The New York Times publishes opinion {from a wide range of perspectives in hhopes of promoting constructive debate about consequential questions. Still vulnerable he tatest global studies on the coronavirus have determined that the world remains a long way from herd-immunity thresholds, the point at ‘hich the virus can no longer spread widely. In New York City, above, only about 20 percent of all residents had been infected by the virus as of early May. PAGE 3 Where hospitals are deadly Health care workers and patients in Mexico are dying from neglect BY NATALIE KITROEFI AND PAULINA VILLEGAS The senseless deaths torment doctors and nurses the most: The man who died because an inexperienced nurse un- plugged his ventilator. The patient who died from septic shock because no one monitored his vital signs. The people, abandoned in their hospital beds for hours on end, whose breathing tubes clogged. In Mexico, it's not{ust the coronavirus that is claiming lives. The country's bro- ken health system is killing people, too. Years of neglect have hobbled Mex co's health care system, leaving it dan- Berously short of doctors, nurses and equipment to fight a virus that has over- whelmed far richer nations. Now, the pandemic is making matters ‘much worse, sickening more than 11,000 ‘Mexican health workers — one of the highest rates in the world — and deplet- ing the already thin ranks in hospitals, Some hospitals have lost half their staff to illness and absenteeism. Others are running low on basic equipment. ‘The shortages have had devastating consequences for patients, according to interviews with health workers across the country. Several doctors and nurses recounted dozens of preventable deaths in hospitals — the result of neglect or mistakes that never should have hap- pened. xy of what we call Ti the enter of an outbreak. “It's not is thats killing them. I'sthe lack of proper care: Patients die because they're given the wrong medications, or the wrong dose, health workers say. The protective gloves at some hospitals are so old that they crack the moment they're slipped fon, nurses say. People are often not se~ dated properly, then wake up and yank out their own breathing tubes, hospital employees say. Adriana de la Cruz, a nurse at the Dr. Belisario Dominguez hospital in the southeast corner of Mexico City, said the overstretched and often undertrained work force has made glaring errors —at great cost “People have died because ofa lack of medical attention and because of negli gence,” Ms. de la Cruz said. “These pa- tients would have a better chance of sur- viving if we could offer better care.” ‘The Mexican government spends less ‘on health care as a percent ofits econ- ‘omy than most countries in the Western Hemisphere, according to the World Bank, and President Andrés Manuel Lopez Obrador presided over spending cuts even after acknowledging his coun- try had 200,000 fewer health care work- ers than it needed. When the epidemic hit Mexico in March, many hospitals sent front-line workers to confront the deluge of cases without any protective equipment or training. Some nurses say they were told not to wear masks to avoid causing MEXICO, PAGE 2 Beijing hardens resolve to defy US. NEWS ANALYSIS: BEUING Even while seeking cooperation, China shows it won't bow to pressure BY KEITH BRADSHER AND STEVEN LEE MYERS. Ignoring threats from Washington, China has stripped another layer of au- tonomy from Hong Kong, plowing ahead with a plan that would ban any form of dissent deemed subversive in the terri- tory reclaimed from Britain more than two decades ago. But even as the plan was approved by China's top legislative body, and Chinese officials taunted the United States as an imperious meddler, Premier Li Kegiang, struck a conciliatory tone. While offer- ing no concessions to American de- mands, he called for close trade rela- tions between the two countries. ‘The clash over Hong Kong and other issues points to the quandary facing China asit growsin power and contends. with an increasingly aggressive Trump ‘administration, The Chinese leadership ‘does not want to incinerate the relation- ship with the United States, given the ‘enormous economic benefits. Nor is it willing to back down, reflecting divi- sions in Beijing between hawks and more moderating forces. “Anything the U.S. says or does or will do, China will refuse,” Shi Yinhong, a professor of international relations’ at Renmin University in Beijing, said in a telephone interview. With each country blaming the other for the coronavirus pandemic, trade dis- putes and now the crisis roiling Hong Kong, the result has been a downward spiral of actions and responses that may not let up before President Trump's re- ‘election campaign ends in November The back-and-forth between Wash- ington and Beijing intensified in the past few days. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo de- clared on Wednesday that Washington would no longer consider Hong Kong to have significant autonomy, clearing the way for Mr. Trump to end the special trade and economic relations the terri- tory now enjoys. Less than 24 hours lat- (CHINA, PAGE 4 HONG KONG COULD LOSE sPECiAt STATUS Washington is considering revoking the status that has helped the territory become a global financial hub. PAGE « Notes on an art heist, by one who has done it AMSTERDAM ‘Aconvicted van Gogh thief describes the difficulties in disposing of stolen art BY NINA SIEGAL The security footage clearly showed the ‘man smashing glass doors at the Singer Laren Museum inthe Netherlands, then walking out moments later with a pain ing by Vincent van Gogh under his arm, “Look at that,” Octave Durham said ashe watched. “His gear isnoteven pro- fessional. If you're a professional you're fully in black. He's got jeans and Nike sneakers on.” Mr. Durham's exasperation isnot that of some couch potato who has seen one too many crime shows. He's a thief who 18 years ago stole not one but two van Gogh paintings from the Van Gogh Mu- seum in Amsterdam. ‘One of two burglars convicted of that Octave Durham near the Van Gogh Museum in Amsterdam, from which he stole wo van Goghs in 2002. He served 25 months in prison, and the paintings were found in 2016, crime in 2004, he served 25 months in prison. In 2016, the Italian police found the two paintings he stole in Castellam- ‘mare di Stabia, a town near Naples, in- side the kitchen wall of a house belong ing to Raffaele Imperiale, a member of an Italian drug-trafficking gang. They ‘were returned to the museum. “This isthe easiest art heist I've ever seen,” Mr. Durham, 47, concluded of the Singer Laren theft, which took place in the early morning on March 30 at the ‘museumin the town of Laren, southeast of Amsterdam. ‘The police in the Netherlands de- clined to comment on their investiga- tion, But Arthur Brand, a private art- crime detective who has helped recover ‘many stolen artworks, said that he was ‘working with the police on the case and that he saw some similarities between that theft and Mr. Durham's crime, Both were quick break-ins, commit- ted in under five minutes by a man with sledgehammer. Both the painting stol- en from Laren, “The Parsonage Garden at Nuenen in Spring” and one of those VAN GOGH, PAGE 2 JAMIN i g 2 | SATURDAY-SUNDAY, MAY 30-31, 2020 ‘THE NEW YORK TIMES INTERNATIONAL EDITION PAGE TWO Mexicos hospitals become killers ‘MEXICO, FROM PAGE 1 panic. Many say they were forced to buy face shields and goggles themselves. ‘The fallout has been severe. About one in five confirmed cases in Mexico are health workers — a greater share than in the United States, Italy or China. Mexico's outbreak is growing quickly and shows no signs of slowing. Reported cases and deaths have risen every week for the last couple of months. After a Times analysis foundevidence that the federal authorities were under- reporting fatalities, a top federal health official publicly conceded that the gov- ernment does not have an accurate count of deaths caused by the virus. ‘At Dr. Villasefior's hospital, there are so few doctors left that during some shifts, critically il patients are going eight hours without anyone checking on them, he said, “You hear of one patient dying be- cause he didn’t get the proper care — and then another one and another one — and you try not to become paralyzed,” said Dr. Villasefior, a rheumatologist who said hehad tolearnhow tosuit upto treat coronavirus patients by watching, a video on YouTube. ‘As Mexico's population grew during the last decade, the government kept hospital funding low, devoting less than 3 percent of its national output to health care, World Bank data shows that by 2017, well before Mr. L6pez Obrador took office only two countries in Central and South America spent less on health than Mexico as a share of their economies: Guatemala and Venezuela. “Administration after administration gave lip service to the issue of health, but it never showed up as a priority in the budget,’ Judith Méndez, an analyst at the Economie and Budgetary Re- search Center, said of Mexico's succes- sive governments, ‘The Mexican government did not re- spond to repeated requests for com- ‘ment. Local health ministersin Baja Cal- ifornia and Mexico City also declined to comment. Patients have filed thousands of com- plaints with the country’s human rights commission about negligence in hospi tals in recent years. And the quality of care only diminished further after hos pital workers in Mexico endured some of the nation’s first coronavirus out- breaks. Doctors and nurses have fallen ill in ‘many countries, but in Mexico the prob- lemis particularly bad. “It health workers are getting sick at this rate, bottom lineis, yourisk not hav- ing ahealth work force to look after peo- ple,’ said Howard Catton, the chief exec- tutive of the International Council of Nurses. Ms. de la Cruz, the nurse in Mexico City, said that her hospital initially in- structed employees not to wear masks around a patient until the person tested positive for coronavirus. “You waited three or four days to see if the patient tested positive, and in the ‘meantime you got infected,” said Ms. de la Cruz, who noted that 80 of her col- leagues had gotten sick. ‘Some hospitals did prepare early for the virus, which sweptthe United States and Europe before outbreaks flared in Mexico. In Monterrey, doctors said pro- tocols to shield workers were estab- lished months ago. Rodolfo Ruiz, an in- fectious disease specialist, said he feels protected at his public hospital in Mexi- cali, even as hospital beds fil up. But the missteps in some of the hard- est ht cities have brought overrun hos- pitas to a breaking point, workers say. Doctors and nurses have staged pro- tests outside their hospitals in at least a dozen states, according to local news re- ports. Some doctors and nurses have re- fused to treat coronavirus patients. Rosario Luna, a nurse at the José Maria Morelos and Pavén hospital in Mexico City, described treating Covid-19 patients with broken heart monitors and faulty suction machines. Doctors and nurses say that many er- rors inside hospitals are never investi- gated, in part because overtaxed health workers are unlikely to lodge com- plaints against their own colleagues. ‘At Dr. Carlos Mac Gregor hospital in ‘Mexico City, Berenice Andrade,adoctor, said that one internist quit because of the lack of staff and that only one doctor watched over 54 patients during the weekends. “It makes the care we offer very defi- cient,” Dr. Andrade said. “The patient's health is of course affected” Five health workers have died at La Raza Medical Center, a public hospital complex in Mexico City, according to a spokesman for the federal health sys- tem. This month, one of the hospitals started offering psychological support to workers, “Its not easy knowing that one day you were working with someone and the next, they aren’ there anymore,” said Ivette Diaz, an intensive carenurse, who is 37 and lives with her elderly parents. “Tm scared every day. My alarm goes off and I don't want to go to work” ‘The hospital has never had enough supplies, she said. Bandages don' stick topatients because they've lost their ad- hesive, But after her colleagues blocked roads leading into the hospital last month, executives began providing ‘more protective equipment. Still, the ‘masks that they gave out were perfo- rated, because of a manufacturing flaw, Ms. Diaz said. She spent her day off recently scour- ing the streets of her neighborhood until sshe found a local vendor to sell her a batch of masks. She paid $7 for each, a ‘small price for a mask free of holes, she decided. Notes on an art heist, by one who has done it VAN GOGH, FROM PAGE 1 taken by Mr. Durham, “Congregation Leaving the Reformed Church in Nue- nen,” depict the church where van Gogh's father served as pastor. ““My strong suspicion is that this is a copycat,” Mr. Brand said. (By the way, he has verified that Mr. Durham was i the hospital at the time of the theft.) Mr. Durham, whose nickname is Okie, doesn't like the copycat theory: “People say he's an ‘Okkie wannabe, but I don't know” he said in an interview. “I wouldn't doit this way” Now the thief is in very much the same situation as Mr. Durham was dec- ades ago. What to do with a stolen van Gogh? Who buys a painting widely pub- licized as stolen? “I just didit because I saw the oppor- tunity” Mr. Durham said. He noticed a window at the museum that he thought would be easy to smash. “I didn’t havea buyer before I did it” he said. “I just thought I can either ‘sell them, or if 1 have a problem I can negotiate with the paintings.” By “negotiate with the paintings?” Mr. Durham meant using the paintings as a bargaining chip with law enforcement officials, in case he got into trouble for something else. Mr. Durham has been charged sev- eral times with thefts and break-ins, in- cluding a bank job for which he was ac- quitted but now admits he committed, Hehasin recent years spoken a good bit about his past, participating in a 2017 documentary about his life. In a 2018 biography, “Master Thiet?” by Wilson Boldewijn, Mr. Durham con- fessed to other thefts as well, but in- sisted that he had never used violence against people to commit his crimes. (Under Dutch lav, criminal prosecution records are sealed.) ““My Number 1 rule is talk smooth, be cool, have a fast car and never touch anyone,” he said. Mr. Durham said that, growing up, a neighbor of his had been a Dutch crim nal: Kees Houtman, who had returned “The Parsonage Garden at Nuenen in Spring,” above, was stolen from a museum in the Netherlands in March. Van Gogh's “Congrega- tion Leaving the Reformed Church in Nuenen,” right, was one of two works by the artist stolen by Octave Durham in 2002, two stolen van Goghs in his possession tothe Dutch judiciary in 2005, hoping to Bet a lighter prison sentence in a drug smuggling case. The early van Gogh works had been stolen from another small museum in the Netherlands, in 1990, Mr. Durham said, “That always stayed in my mind.” Mr. Durham said that he first offered the van Gogh paintings he had stolen to two criminals, but that both of them ‘were murdered before the deal could go down, “Pm religious, and I'm superstitious,” ‘Mr. Durham said. “I thought that these two paintings were cursed. I said, ‘L don’t want to do anything with these paintings.” Ultimately, he and his co-conspirator, Henk Bieslin, sold the paintings to Mr. Imperiale, who owned an Amsterdam coffee shop and was a leader of the Ca- ‘morra drug ring in Naples. He took the paintings to Italy and hid them in his ‘mother's Kitchen, apparently for safe- keeping, according to Willem Nijkerk, a prosecutor with the Amsterdam public prosecutor's office. Meanwhile, Mr. Durham ran from Amsterdam to Spain, where the police arrested him in 2003 in Marbella, a southern resort town. Dutch forensic in- vestigators matched DNA from a base- ball cap he left behind at the Van Gogh ‘Museum to conviet him, but he refused to reveal the location of the paintings, More than adecade later, when Italian police were investigating the Camorra ‘Mafia, Mr: Imperiale confessed by letter to having the paintings, in apparent hopes of negotiating amore lenient sen- tence for himself ‘Atleast 34 van Goghs have been stol- en worldwide since 1975, said Nienke Bakker, a senior curator of van Gogh paintings for the Van Gogh Museum. ‘They include 20 paintings stolen in 1991 from the museum where she works; they were recovered within afew hours, from an abandoned car. Ursula Weitzel, the lead public pros- ecutor onart crimes for the Netherlands Public Prosecution Service, said that in ‘general, art was stolen for the same rea Sons people steal cars, “Unless i's crime of passion, usually the motive is to make money.” she said. “It as simple as that. People don't steal it because they want to hang it on the wall, That kind of theft for pride or sta- tus, I haven't seen that. I'S usually for ‘money. Or, for safekeeping, in the event that it may be necessary” Mr. Brand said thai many thieves think they can sel paintings on the open ‘market, but they quickly discover that there are no legal buyers. “More than half of my cases have been like that,” he said. “You have thieves who think there are buyers who ‘would really like to have stolen art on their wall. That doesn’t exist; that is only from the movie ‘Dr. No’ But some thieves think these people exist, and then they have a rude awakening when they can't sell the work” ‘That's when they offer them to other criminals, he said, often for much less than their real value. ‘Mr. Brand estimated that a work in the criminal underworld is worth about 10 percent of its value in the legitimate art market — so if painting might sell for $10 million at auction, it can be traded among criminals for about $1 mil- Tion, ‘Mr. Durham said that the value was ‘even lower — about 25 percent to 5 per- cent of market value. ‘Ms. Weitzel, who handles about 10 cases of stolen art a year in Amsterdam alone, said that sometimes a criminal might hold on to a work in the hope of usingitascollateralor abargaining chip with law enforcement. ‘Mr. Durham said he would not steal another van Gogh, and described the theft 18 years ago as the act of a younger ‘man, “Itsnot ike doing a bankjob;" he said, “I understand now that people really like art, andif you steal it, people are go- ing to get mad and get hurt. I under- stand that now, even if still don't have that feeling myself” Baritone embraced French roots GABRIEL BACQUIER 1924-2020 BY STEVE SMITH Gabriel Bacquier, a French baritone ‘whose supple voice, immaculate diction ‘and keen dramatic instincts made hima ‘cherished presence in opera houses and ‘on concert stages worldwide, died on May 13 at his home in Lestre, in Nor- mandy, France. He was 95. His death was announced by his wife, the mezzo-soprano and author Sylvie ‘Oussenko. ‘Mr. Bacquier was particularly ad- mired as a proponent of French musi both opera and song. Among the roles with which he was most elosely associ- ated were Golaud in Debussy's “Pelléas ‘et Mélisande” the High Priest of Dagon in Saint-Saéns's “Samson et Dalila.” and the four villains in Offenbach's “The ‘Tales of Hoffmann.” He made significant recordings of numerous French-lan- ‘guage works, including Rossini’s “Gui- llaume Tell?” Massenet’s “Thais” and Ravel's “L'Heure Espagnole.” He also commanded respect in Ital- ian-language operas. His Mozart roles included Almavivain “Le Nozze di Figa- +0," Don Alfonso in “Cosi Fan Tutte” and both the devilish seducer Don Giovanni and his long-suffering wingman, Lepo- rello. Among Mr. Bacquier’s most portrayals were Searpia zett’s *LElisir dAmore” and the title roles in Donizetti's “Don Pasquale” and Verdi's “Falstaff” ‘Having honed his eraft early on with French and Belgian companies, Mr. Bac- 4quier came to international attention ‘with a portrayal of Don Giovanni at the Aix-en-Provence Festival in 1960, tele- vised throughout Europe. Major debuts followed: Almaviva atthe Glynde- bourne Festival and the High Priest at Chicago's Lyric Opera in 1962; Zurga in Bizet's “Les Pécheurs de Perles” at the Philadelphia Lyric Opera in 1963; and Riccardo in Bellini's “I Puritani” at the Royal Opera House in London in 1964. That year, Mr. Bacquier made his de- but at the Metropolitan Opera in New York as the High Priest. The perform- ance, deemed “splendid” by the exact- ing New York Herald Tribune critie Alan Rich, was the start of a run comprising. 123 performances over 18 seasons, at ‘home and on tour. Despite international success in the ‘core operatic repertoire andthe demand that resulted, Mr. Bacquier engaged ina broad range of musical pursuits. He was ‘an exemplary proponent of French songs, performing works by Fauré, Gabriel Bacquier, in 1973, was a propor ‘ent of French music, opera and song. Ravel, Poulene and Dupare, among oth- fers, and had an enduring interest in op- eretta, He ereated roles in new operas, including Menotti's “Le Dernier Sau- vage" and Daniel-Lesur’s “Andréa del Sarto” and was active in the recording ‘studio as late as 2007, when he created ‘an album of songs by the French actor and songwriter Pierre Louki Gabriel ‘Augustin-Raymond- ‘Théodore-Louis Bacquier was born in Béziers, France, on May 17, 1924, the only child of Augustin and’ Fernande (Geverae) Bacquier, both railroad em- ployees. He was fascinated with music {rom boyhood. “When I was 5 years old, 1 found it necessary tosing as away of expressing myself" he saidin an interview with The New York Times in 1973, “and it was not long before I developed an appreciation ‘of opera, because my father had one of those windup phonographs with records that played only one side” Pressed by his parents to pursue a.ca- reer incommercial design, Mr. Bacquier almost acquiesced, until a period of com- pulsory labor onthe railroads during the German occupation brought him into contact with people who knew person- ally the singers he admired. One en- ‘counter was with a wellconnected voice teacher named Madame Bastard, “I be- ‘ganto study with her” Mr. Bacquier said in the 1978 interview, “and no matter Which sift was working on, Tmanaged tohave a lesson every day until 19457 That year Mr. Bacquier entered the Paris Conservatory, graduating in 1950, He began his professional career in José Beckman's Compagnie Lyrique (1950- 52), followed by three years at La Mon- naie, in Brussels. He went to the Opéra- ‘Comique in Paris in 1956, and then joined the Paris Opéra in 1959. "Mr. Bacquier concluded his stage ca- reer in 1984 with a production of “Don Pasquale” at the Opéra-Comique. Long, past his retirement from the stage, Mr. Bacquier continued to give master classes and held teaching posi- tions in Paris and Monaco. ‘THE NEW YORK TIMES INTERNATIONAL EDITION SATURDAY-SUNDAY, MAY 30-31, 2020 | 3. Wor Herd immunity remains a distant hope Even the hardest-hit cities still show low proportions of infection, studies find BY NADIA POPOVICH, AND MARGOT SANGER-KATZ The coronavirus still has a long way to ‘g0. That's the message from new studies across the world that are trying to quan- tify how many people have been in- fected. Official case counts often substan- tially underestimate the number of coro- navirus infections. But in studies that test the population more broadly, the percentage of people who have been in- fected so far is still in the single digits. The numbers are a fraction of the threshold known as herd immunity, at which the virus can no longer spread widely. The precise herd immunity threshold for the coronavirus is not yet. clear, but several experts said they be- lieved it would be higher than 60 per- cent. Even in some of the hardest-hit cities in the world, the studies suggest, the vast majority of people remain vulnera- ble tothe virus. ‘Some countries — notably Sweden, and briefly Britain — have experi- ‘mented with limited lockdowns in an ef- fort to build up immunity in their popu- lations. But even in these places, recent studies indicate that no more than 7 to 17 percent of people have been infected so far. In New York, which has had the larg- est coronavirus outbreak in the United States, around 20 percent of the city’s residents had been infected by the virus as of early May, according to asurvey of peoplein grocery stores and community centers released by the New York State governor's office. ‘Similar surveys are underway in China, where the coronavirus first ‘emerged, but results have not yet been reported, A study froma single hospital in the city of Wuhan, where the virus first emerged, found that about 10 per- cent of people seeking to go back to work had been infected with the virus. Viewed together, the studies show that herd immunity protection is un- likely to be reached “anytime soon,” said Michael Mina, an epidemiologist at the Harvard TH. Chan School of Public Health ‘The herd immunity threshold for this new disease is still uncertain, but many epidemiologists believe it will be reached when between 60 percent and 80 percent of the population has been in- fected and develops resistance. A lower level of immunity in the population can slow the spread of a disease somewhat, but the herd immunity number repre sents the point where infections are sub- stantially less likely to turn into large outbreaks. “We don’t have a good way to safely build it up, tobe honest, notin the short term,” Dr. Mina said. “Unless we're go- ing tole the virus run rampant again — but I think society has decided that is ‘not an approach available to us.” ‘The new studies look for antibodiesin people's blood, proteins produced by the Immune system that indicate a past in- fection. An advantage of this testis that it can find people who may have been asymptomatic and didn't know they were sick. A disadvantage is that the tests are sometimes wrong — and se\ eral studies, including a notable on¢ Herd immunity estimate At least 60% of population needed Wuhan (returning workers) 10% have antibodies Apri 2: ‘Note: Studes represent best current estimates, but ae inexact and may overestimate immunity where coronavius infections are low. Repor vece publi released. The study from Wuhan, China, evaluate immunity only among people returning wen study re Still not safe from the spread Even in cities hardest hit by the coronavirus, a vast majority of people remain vulnerable to it. ‘New studies that look for antibodies in people's blood suggest that most places fall far short of the threshold known as herd immunity, the point at which the virus can no longer spread widely. New York City 19.9% have antibodies May 2 Boston London 17.5% have antibodies Vy 21 ‘Stockholm region 7.3% have antibodies May 20 Madrid 11.3% have antibodies Ms Barcelona 7.1% have antibodies dates retect ‘wor, not inthe general population Sources: New York State; Public Heath England: Cars il Heath institute; Wu eta, Journal of Medical Viology: City of Boston; Pubic Heath Agency of Sweden California, have been criticized for not accounting for possible inaccuracies or for not representing the whole popula- tion, ‘Studies that use these tests to exam- ine a cross section of a population, often called serology surveys, are being un- dertaken around the United States and the world, ‘These studies are far from perfect, said Carl Bergstrom, a professor of biol- ogy at the University of Washington. But in aggregate, he said, they give a better sense of how far the coronavirus has truly spread — and its potential for spreading further. ‘The herd immunity threshold may dif- fer from place to place, depending on factors like density and social interac- tion, he said, But on average, experts say, it will require atleast 60 percent im- ‘munity in the population. Ifthe disease spreads more easily than is currently believed, the number could be higher. If there slot of variation in people's like- lihood of becoming infected when they are exposed, that could push the num- ber down, ‘All estimates of herd immunity as- sume that a past infection will protect. people from becoming sick a second time. There is suggestive evidence that people do achieve immunity to the coro- navirus, but itis not yet certain whether that is true in all eases; how robust the immunity may be; or how long it will last, Even with herd immunity, some peo- ple will stil get sick. “Your own risk, if exposed, isthe same,” said Gypsyamber D'Souza, a professor of epidemiology at Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore. You just become much less likely to be exposed” Diseases like measles and chicken- pox, once very common among chil- dren, are now extremely rare in the United States because vaccines have helped build enough herd immunity to contain outbreaks. ‘There is no vaccine for the coro- navirus, so getting to herd immunity without a new and more effective treat- ‘ment could mean many more infections and many more deaths. If it is assumed that herd protection could be achieved at 60 percent, that ‘means New York City is only one-third of the way there, And so far, the death rate is around 250 of every 100,000 city residents. The city still has millions of residents vulnerable to catching and spreading this disease and tens of thou- sands more who are at risk of dying. Even in cities like So Paulo, Brazil, which has been battered by the pandemic, studies ‘suggest the vast majority of people remain vulnerable. “Would someone advise that people go through something like what New York went through?” said Natalie Dean, an assistant professor of biostatistics at the University of Florida. “There's a lot of people who talk about this managed {infection of young people, butt ust feels like hubris to think you can manage this virus. It's very hard to manage.” Infections have not been evenly dis- tributed throughout the population, ‘with low-income and minority commu. nities in the United States bearing a ‘greater burden. On Thursday, Gov. An- ‘drew M. Cuomo of New York State an- nounced that antibody testing showed that some neighborhoods in the bor- ‘oughs of Bronx and Brooklyn had dou- ble the infection rate of New York City in general. Those areas are already ap- proaching the herd immunity threshold, ‘when new outbreaks become less likely. But because they are not isolated from the city at large, where immunity rates are much lower, residents are still at risk In other cities, serology surveys are ‘showing much smaller shares of people ‘with antibodies. The quality of these studies is somewhat varied, either be- ‘cause the samples weren't random or because the tests were not accurate ‘enough. But the range of studies shows that most places would have to see 10 or more times as many illnesses — and possibly, deaths — to reach the point ‘where an outbreak would not be able to take off, The serology studies can also help sci- centists determine how deadly the virus really is. Currently, estimates for whats called the infection fatality rate are rough. To calculate them precisely, i's ‘important to know how many people ina place died from the virus versus how many were infected. Official case rates, which rely on testing, undercount the true extent of infections in the popula tion. Serology helps us see the true foot- print. In New York, where 20 percent of peo- ple were infected with the virus by May 2, according to antibody testing, and ‘where more than 18,000 had died by then, the infection fatality rate appears tobe around I percent. For comparison, the infection fatality rate for influenza is estimated at 0.1 per- cent to 0.2 percent. But the way the government esti- mates flucasesis less precise than using, serology tests and tends to undercount thenumber of infections, skewing thefa- tality number higher. But even if the fatality rates were ‘identical, the coronavirus and the dis- ‘ease it causes, Covid-l9, would be a much more dangerous disease than in- fluenza. Ithas to do with the number of people who are at riskof getting sickand dying as the disease spreads. ‘With the lu, only about half the popu- lation is at risk of getting sick in a given flu season. Many people have some im- ‘munity already, either because they have been sick with a similar strain of flu, or because they got a flu shot that ‘was a good match for the version of the vvirus they encountered that year. ‘Thatnumber isn't high enough tofully reach herd immunity — and the flu still circulates every year. Covid-19, unlike influenza, is a brand- ‘new disease. Before this year, no one in the world had any immunity to it at all ‘That means that even ifinfection fatality rates were similar, it has the potential 0 kill many more people. One percent of a large number is bigger than 1 percent of ‘a smaller number, “There aren't 328 million Americans who are susceptible to the flu every fall at the beginning of the flu season,” said ‘Andrew Noymer,an associate professor ‘of public health at the University of Cali- fornia, Irvine. “But there are 328 million ‘Americans who were susceptible to this when this started” ‘Additional research by Anna Joyce. Areporter’s surreal journey across a resuscitatin EUROPE DISPATCH ROZVADOV BORDER CROSSING Disorienting checks and rapidly changing laws have replaced easy travel ‘BY PATRICK KINGSLEY “Can you please?” said the police officer at the Czech-German border, “step out of the car?” He and a colleague rummaged through the vehicle, muttering to each other about the possibility of a secret compartment. By the time they had fin- ished, 11 minutes later, they had strewn the contents of my suitcase, backpack and medical bag across the passenger seats. Iwas now free to enter Germany, they said. It was only a mildly inconvenient episode, but nevertheless illustrative — an encapsulation of how haphazard and disorienting life in Europe has become since the start of the coronavirus pan- demic. ‘Three months ago, I could have driv- en from the Czech Republic into Ger- ‘many without even noticing where ex- actly the border was, thanks toan agree- ment that allows free movement be- tween most countries in the European Union. Now, there's a checkpoint on the Czech side, and another one just inside Germany ‘And initially, not even a letter from ‘The New York Times, a diplomatic note from the British embassy (I'm a British citizen), a German press card and a cer- In Berlin, lef, ie is slowly returning to normal. Right, a checkpoint at the border between Germany and Belgium. Cross-border travel now requires alot more organization, tificate confirming I was virus-free were ‘enough to persuade the Germans that had legitimate reason to be traveling this way. It's exactly this kind of odd encounter that I'm trying to document as I drive through a Europe thatis waking up after the lockdown, ‘Accompanied by Laetitia Vancon, a Times photojournalist, I am in the mid dle of what will most likely end up as a 3,700-mile journey through as many as. sixcountries in various stages of emerg- ing from a virus-induced slumber. Over the next few days, we will be Publishing our dispatches and photo- 8raphs from this changed world — from an eccentric drivein theater in Prague toa dystopically long line at afood bank in Geneva, one of the world’s richest cit- ies. So far, it has been an absurdly privi- leged experience, at a time when many people are still confined to their neigh- borhoods. Ithas also been predictably strange— fa journey in which surreal moments seem normal, and normality seems sur- real. In Berlin, we spent a day at a newly reopened restaurant, something that ‘wouldn't have merited a mention three ‘months ago. Now it seems remarkable. Ithas been bewildering to witness dif- ferent countries — and even different regions within individual countries — ‘open up at different speeds and with dif- ferent priorities. ape ‘That day in Berlin, diners could al- ready eat inside restaurants. Yet simul- taneously in Munich, they could still sit only at tables outside, In Switzerland, most people didn't ‘seem to be wearing masks in the street. But a day later in the Czech Republic, it was still the law to wear a mask any- ‘where outside the house. ‘Then the next morning, we emerged into the sunlight to see people's faces again: The law had changed overnight. ‘The logistics of travel have proved finitely more challenging than usual. Most hotels were closed. Those that remained open were eerily empty. In Prague, I paid for a hotel in advance — but on arrival, it turned out to have closed weeks ago. The lights were off g Europe anda sign on the door advised us to con- tact another hotel in the same chain. When traveling through Europe for ‘work last year, I sometimes flew over- seas at afew hours’ notice. But this jour- ney took weeks to organize, and for safety reasons we decided to travel by ‘ar instead of plane. [t would minimize ‘our exposure to publicspaces, and other people's exposure to us. ‘The journey also required liaising with several national governments to ‘work out whether they would alow jour- nalists to enter their territory, and if so, under what conditions. twas a flat “no” from the Polish bor- der guard. But the Belgian Interior istry saidwemerely neededapress card ‘and a blue sign we could download from its website, print out and place behind the windshield. ‘The Danes wanted a letter from my ‘editors. The Swiss needed only to know ‘our dates of travel, before providing a laissez-passer for us to present on the border. The authorities in Germany, where Ilive, said I could leave the coun: try for only 48 hours at a time, unless I wanted to spend two weeks in quaran- tine on my return. ‘Sometimes, the officials weren't even ‘sure what to tell us. The Czechs i ter from The note from our respective embassies Prague. Then, days before we traveled, the rules changed, ‘To enter the Czech Republic, we now ‘also needed an invitation from a Czech ‘company (the drive-in theater eventu- ally provided one) — and, trickiest ofall, a virus test that had been completed within four days of crossing the border. ‘That was challenging, because the re- sults can take three working days to process, whereas we had only two. By the time the results arrived, we were al- ready in Switzerland, foreing the clinic to send them, slightly grudgingly, by email Afterall that, the Czech police barely ‘glanced at the results before waving me ‘onward at the border. ‘Tomy surprise, it was the German po- lice on the Czech border who were the most suspicious. “Do you have anything in the car like ‘weapons, knives?” one officer said. “Or drugs?” he added. “Marijuana?” Thave spent much of my career inves- tigating smugglers. But in this world turned upside down, the policeman ‘seemed to think I might be one myself. 4 | SATURDAY-SUNDAY, MAY 30-31, 2020 ‘THE NEW YORK TIMES INTERNATIONAL EDITION WORLD (CHINA, FROM PAGE er, on Thursday, the National People’s Congress, China's legislature, did pre- cisely what Mr. Pompeo had railed against: authorizing new security laws in Hong Kong, ‘After the United States won an initial victory in a Canadian court on Wednes- day in its long effort to bring criminal charges against a senior executive of Huawei, the Chinese telecommunica- tions equipment maker, China swiftly vowed to retaliate against both Canada and the United States. China already had blocked some Canadian exportsand detained two Canadian citizens for more than 500 days. ‘Trump administration officals argue that they have brought China to the ta- ble on trade by imposing tariffs. But they have failed so far to achieve their goal of fundamentally shifting China's behavior — on trade or any other issue. From Beijing's perspective, the puni- tive measures have simply revealed the core of American hostility toward China. “When China was rising as an eco- nomic power, the United States toler- ated it” Shen Dingli, an expert on rela tions with the United States at Fudan University in Shanghai, said in a tele- phone interview. “Now that China is strong, it cannot tolerate it anymore: ‘When the Trump administration an- nounced new restrictions to block com- panies around the world from using American-made machinery and soft- ware to help Huawei, Being promised to target American technology compa- nies operating in China ‘When the administration capped the number of Chinese journalists in the United States, China kicked out most of the American correspondents from three major news organizations in the United States, including The New York Times. Both Mr. Trump and President Xi Jin- ping of China feel compelled to appear strong. The American president views blaming China for the coronavirus crisis, the United States as a path tore-elec- tion. The Chinese leader faces enor- ‘mous economic and diplomatic chal- lenges that could stir domestic opposi- tion to his grip on power. ‘What the American moves have not done is chasten Mr. Xi's government, which appears to feel simultaneously embattled and defiant. the outspoken editor of 's, a nationalistic tabloid controlled by the Communist Party, all but dared the Trump administration to carry out its threat to end Hong Kong's favored trade status. He noted that there were 85,000 Americans there and scores of companies that would reaj “the bitter fruits” of the American deci “Washington is too narcissistic” he wrote in Chinese on the messaging plat- form Weibo on Thursday. “American po- liticians like Pompeo arrogantly think that the fate of Hong Kong is in their hands” ‘The National People's Congress on Thursday dutifully adopted the govern- ‘ment's proposals to impose new lawson Hong Kong to suppress subversion, se- cession, terrorism and other acts that ‘might threaten China's national security —as the authorities in Beijing define it. ‘The vote was nearly unanimous, with only one delegate voting against and six abstaining, China's authoritarian system and state-run media give Mr. Xi enormous power to control the message in the face of American hostility — exploiting it to rally popular outrage and tempering it to play the role of magnanimous global partner. ‘At his ritual news conference wrap- ping up the National People's Congress on Thursday, Mr Li, the premier, singled out for praise an American company, Honeywell, that on Tuesday announced an investment in Wuhan — thecity from. which the pandemic spread. A month before, the Pentagon had awarded Hon- eywell a contract to supply protective masks. Mr Litwice called for “peaceful” rela- tions with Taiwan, after conspicuously dropping the word when he discussed ‘Taiwan at the start of the weeklong leg- lative session. And he underlined Chi- na’s willingness to look further for the origins of the coronavirus. ‘China, though, has shown litle incli- nation for compromise. Beijing reacted harshly toa Canadian court's ruling that cleared an initial hur- dle for the extradition of Meng ‘Wanzhou, a senior executive of Huawei charged by the United States with bank fraud related to American sanctions against Iran US. officials have failed so far to achieve their goal of shifting China's behavior — on trade or any other issue. ‘The Chinese Embassy in Ottawa ac- ceused the United States and Canada of abusing their bilateral extradition treaty and “arbitrarily taking forceful measures” against Ms. Meng. “The purpose of the United States is to bring down Huawei and other Chi- nese high-tech companies, and Canada thas been acting in the process as an ac- complice of the United States,” the em- bassy said on Twitter, which is banned inside China. “The whole cases entirely a grave political incident.” ‘China has already retaliated against hardens resolve to defy the U.S. President Xi Jinping, center, on Thursday, when China's legislature authorized new security laws for Hong Kong. Me. Xi seems impervious to worries about China's reputation. Canadian exports of pork, canola oil and other products, and in recent days it has. hinted that it will broaden its targets. It has also held two Canadians, Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor,in secret de- tention on state security charges widely viewed as retaliatory. Neither has appeared in apublic court, hearing or been afforded access to law- yers during court proceedings. That has hardened anti-Chinese sentiment in Canada, which had not historically been as suspicious of Beijing as, say, the United States has. ‘The International Crisis Group, where Mr. Kovrig, a former diplomat, worked, posted a message on Twitter noting that Thursday was his 535th day in detention. “Each passing day is a stain on China's reputation,” the group said. ‘Mr Xi, who has ruled with an increas- ingly authoritarian grip since 2012, Seems impervious to worries about Chi- reputation, He has emerged from the pandemic newly emboldened, seiz- ing onnationalist themes to deflect from the government's early failures in stop- ping the coronavirus’s spread. He has described the pandemic and its stil-unfolding economic challenge as, crucible that will forge a stronger gov- ‘ernment anda stronger party. China has also shown it will not be distracted from its defense of territorial claims along its land and sea borders, from the South ‘China Sea to the Himalayas. ‘The bravado has weakened what leverage the United States might once have wielded: the threat of international condemnation, restrictions on trade, even the prospect of decoupling the world's two largest economies. Beijing now seems willing to bear any cost. Lau Siu-kai, a former senior Hong Kong government official who advises Beijing, said that American pressure had failed to prompt areconsiderationin the Hong Kong issue, in part because China's “leadership has anticipated ‘American opposition on many fronts. “Beijing wil stick with its new policy toward Hong Kong regardless of US. re- actions and is prepared to take counter- ‘measures in a titfor-tat manner” he said. Keith Bradsher reported from Beijing, ‘and Steven Lee Myers from Seoul, South Korea. Research was contributed by (Claire Fu, Wang Yiwei, Amber Wang and Liu Yi from Beijing. What'sat stake if Hong BY ALEXANDRA STEVENSON Hong Kong is at risk of becoming collat- eral damage in the growing rivalry be- tween China and the United States. Chinese leaders have moved to ex- tend Beijing's grip over the former British colony. In response, officials in Washington are considering whether to strip away the special status they have Jong afforded the semiautonomous ter- ritory, which has helped it build its sta- tus as a global financial hub and as a critical gateway between China and the United States. Should the United States revoke that designation, Hong Kong’s status as a business capital willbe in jeopardy. WHY DOES IT GET SPECIAL STATUS? The United States has long had a special relationship with Hong Kong, despite the fact that the former British colony is, part of China. Britain, which initially claimed the territory during the Opium Wars of the ‘mid-1800s, handed it back to China in 1997. Beijing in turn pledged that Hong Kong would keep ahigh degree of auton- omy under a “one country, two systems” understanding. Even though itis part of China, Hong Kong operates under its own laws that include economic and civ- il freedoms that cannot be found in ‘mainland China. ‘The special status that Washington grants Hong Kong acknowledged this difference. Under the United States-Hong Kong. Policy Act of 1992, Hong Kong is treated differently by U.S. law when it comes to financial transactions, immigration and trade, ‘That status has allowed annual trade between thetwo to grow to some $38bil- lion, WHY IS THAT STATUS IN JEOPARDY? China's Communist Party has been frus- trated by the anti-Beijing protests that erupted in Hong Kong beginning last year. ‘On Thursday, Chinese leaders ap- proved a plan that would include draft- ing anew law expected by September to suppress terrorism, support national se- curity and quell calls for Hong Kong in- dependence from China. It is not yet clear what the new law will include. But diplomats and business leaders worry that the legislation will politicize immigration, infringe on Hong, Kong's free speech and the free flow of formation online and lead to meddling, with financial market regulations, China signaled this month that it would approve the plan, and American officials have expressed dismay. The US. secretary ofstate, Mike Pompeo, on Wednesday declared that he no longer considered Hong Kong to have a high degree of autonomy from the mainland, paving the way for punitive measures that could bring Washington's special economic relations with the territory to anend, WHAT HAPPENS IF IT CHANGES? Under the special status, the U.S. dollar can be freely exchanged with the Hong. Kong Protesters in Hong Kong. Washington is considering revoking the status that has helped turn the city into a global financial hub. Kong dollar, which makes the city a par- ticularly attractive place for American companies to do business. Hong Kong Bets preferential treatment on trade, ‘meaning litle to no tariffs or other costs. The United States and Hong Kong enjoy visa-free travel, making it easy for busi- ness executives to come and go. If the United States removes Hong Kong's special status, all that could come to an end. Depending on Washington's re- sponse, the removal ofthe special status could lead the United States to treat Hong Kong the same way it treats any other Chinese city. That would mean higher tariffs, including those enacted amid the trade war between the United States and China, Movement between the two places would be restricted as well. Many American businesses may choose to leave. loses its special stat It would put Hong Kong under the same export controls over sensi technology that the United States places ‘on Chinese buyers. ‘The Trump administration has creasingly limited the access of Chinese companies to American software and hardware expertise on national security grounds. Removal of the special status could lead to greater serutiny of investments inthe United States by Hong Kong com- panies, oo. In recent years, Washington has made it increasingly hard for Chi- nese companies to invest there. Hong Kong is considered a special ad- ministrative region of China, or SAR, but “the Sin S.A.R.isonly special in that the rest of the world treats it differently from the mainland” said David Webb, a former banker and investor in Hong Kong, us ‘CAN TRUMP CHANGE IT HIMSELF? President Trump can change the status by himself, through an executive order. Congress, however, has increasingly pressed him toact. Last year, Mr. Trump signed the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy’ Act after it was ap- proved in both the Senate and the House by wide margins. The act requires gov- ernment agencies to review Hong Kong's autonomy from mainland China each year. Removing the status carries political risks. It would make Mr. Trump look tough on China before November's elec- tion, an approach he has taken to divert attention from the U.S. government's ‘stumbles in addressing the coronavirus ‘outbreak. Butit could also jeopardize his trade war truce with China, one of the major accomplishments of his adminis- tration, DOES THE US. RISK HURTING ITSELF? ‘On paper, the United States exports much more to Hong Kong than it im- ports. Making business tougher in Hong Kong could also drive the territory's Population, which has broadly ex- pressed sympathy with the pro-democ- racy demonstrators, closer to Bejing, “The harder the U.S. hits us in terms of cutting our ties, what will happen is that will drive us towards mainland China, won't it?” said Regina Ip, the leader of the pro-Beijing New People’s Party in Hong Kong. But Washington may calculate that the damage will be painful enough to China to make its objections clear. Chi ‘ese companies, including state-owned enterprises, use Hong Kongas aplace to raise money. It is home to complicated Dbutessential financial plumbing used by Chinese companies and individuals, who are limited in how much money they can move in and out of China be- ‘cause of Beijing's tight limits over finan ial flows past its borders. Ending its special status could severely weaken those benefits. Hong Kong is also the regional head- ‘quarters for many of the world's biggest ‘companies. China's vast economy re- ‘mains abig draw. Butif Hong Kong loses its transparency and openness, those ‘companies may decide to set up shop elsewhere, Found, lost, then found: Roman villa’s mosaic floor ROME BY ELISABETTA POVOLEDO Italian archaeologists have again un- earthed the well-preserved, colorfully patterned mosaic floors of an ancient Roman villa in a vineyard that was last excavated nearly a century ago and then lost to public memory. The site, near Verona in northern Ita- ly, was known to scholars through pho- tographs taken during an earlier ar- ‘chacological campaign, in 1922. But the villa's ruins were reburied at the time and effectively forgotten. But not by archaeologists. Nearly 100 years after the last exca- vation, a state-funded effort began last. ‘year to try to find the long-lost mosaics. ‘At first, it was a bit hit or miss, because the archaeologists who worked a cen- tury ago had not fixed the precise co- ‘ordinates of the villas location, accord- ing to Gianni de Zuccato, the state ar- ‘chaeologist leading the current excava- tion, But on May 18, archaeologists hit pay dirt, uncovering part of a mosaic that Mr. de Zuccato knew well from the cen- tury-old photographs. “Itwas one of the most moving expe- riences of my life” he said of the mo- ment when the team at the site un- ‘earthed a strip of mosaic, between three ‘and five feet underground, “I had the sensation of entering a time machine, of ‘coming into contact with reality that's long gone, so many centuries ago, and yet having the imprint of humankind," he added. “The villa's mosaie floor from the third or fourth century A.D. was originally discov- ‘ered in 1822 near Verona, Italy. “I cannot help but think of the people who laid the mosaics, of the people who lived there — not only the aristocrats, ‘but the dozens” of servants and farmhands who lived on the land, “That ‘deeply moves me! he sai Though the name of the long-ago ‘owner of the villa is not known, Mr. de Zuccato said that the quality of the mo- ‘saies suggested he was welloff, possibly ‘local official or an associate of the Im- perial entourage. The overall layout of the villa, which might have been about 10,000 square feet according to Mr. deZuccato,stillhas not been mapped out because the exca- vations have far to go. Ina.2007 book on mosaics in the Vene- toregion, the archaeologist Federica Ri- naldi, now responsible for the Colosse- lum in Rome, used the photographs to date the mosaics to the third or fourth century A.D., based on a comparison with other mosaics in the area. “It's an important find,” Ms. Rinaldi said ofthe rediscovery. Verona’s ancient inhabitants “had unique tastes in floor- ing,” she added, and “few villas have been found with such well-preserved ‘and well-executed examples” ‘Afew mosaics from the villa were first ‘accidentally found in 1887 when work was done on the vineyard, which is near the town of Negrar di Valpolicella, in a part of the Veneto region known for its wine. At the time, the vineyard's owner was free to profit from the mosaics, and he sold them to city officials in Verona. They are on exhibit at the city’s Ar- ‘chaeological Museum, alongside mosa- icsfromother ancient Roman villasnear Verona, an outpost so important for its temples and monuments in ancient times that it was known as Little Rome, Mr. de Zuccato said. Local lore among the area's farmers, as well as scholarly publications, kept the memory of the buried mosaics alive. When a local resident built an under- ground cellar nearby, Mr. de Zuccato ‘grew concerned that further construe- tion could inadvertently put the mosaics at risk, ‘The mosaics were found in an area ‘about 50 yards from where the archaeol- ‘ogists had begun excavating, in a vine- xyard belonging to two owners. ‘The excavation is being carried outin trenches, so as not to disturb the vines. Now, however, the archaeologists have to decide what to do next. “If we bring everything to light, we have to make sure that we can protect and conserve the site, even before we speak of possibly transferring it toamu- ‘seum,” Mr. de Zuccato said, ‘THE NEW YORK TIMES INTERNATIONAL EDITION SATURDAY-SUNDAY, MAY 30-31, 2020 | 5. WORLD emer? —s A section ofthe border wall under construction in Texas last year President Trump has promised to build 450 miles ofthe wall. Construction has not yet reached 200 miles. Land grab for wall accelerates WASHINGTON US. government steps up its efforts as residents shelter from pandemic BY ZOLAN KANNO-YOUNGS, The Trump administration is accelerat- ing efforts to seize private property for President Trump's wall on the border with Mexico, taking advantage ofthe co- ronavirus pandemic to survey land while the owners are confined indoors, residents along the Rio Grande, which forms part of the border, have said. “Is that essential business?” asked Nayda Alvarez, 49, who recently found construction markers on the land in Starr County, Texas, that has been in her family for five generations. “That didn’t stop a single minute during the shelter in place or stay at home” The United States _ government brought a furry of lawsuits against landowners in South Texas to survey, seize and potentially begin construction on private property in the first five ‘months ofthe year as the administration rushed to deliver on Mr. Trump's prom- {se tobuild 450 miles of wall by theend of the year, which he reduced on Thursday to 400, Construction under Mr. Trump hhas not reached 200 miles His administration has brought 78 lawsuits against landowners on the bor- der, 30 of them this year. hhas acquired just 10 of the 213 private property that the border wall is, projected to pass through in the Laredo and Rio Grande Valley sectors, accord ing to Customs and Border Protection data from May 19 obtained by The New York Times, an increase of seven miles since December. In recent months, the president's son-indaw, Jared Kushner, has stepped in to oversee the effort. ‘The increased litigation against the landowners, despite the pandemic, is evidence of the administration's sense of urgency to deliver on a symbol of Mr. ‘Trump's crackdown on immigration, The president has said the pandemic is proof of the walls necessity, though there sno real evidenceiit will have any effect on public health. “Mexico is having a very, very hard time, as you know, with Covid, espe- cially along the border,” Mr. Trump told reporters on Thursday, though Mexico's 9,000 deaths and 81,000 infections are a faction of the toll in the United States, “Fortunately.” he added, “we have a brand-new wall along there, and the wall is saving us” ‘The government filed 13 lawsuits in ‘March alone to gain access to and ac- Quire land, the highest single-month to- tal since Mr. Trump took office, aecord- ng to the Texas Civil Rights Project. ‘Some of the landowners sued have kept the properties in their families for generations. But the Texans say the government's timing has left them fur- ther disadvantaged in a process in which the administration already has the law on its side. Landowners adher- ing to coronavirus guidelines have been unable to meet with their relatives to discuss the government's offers, to con- fer with lawyers on how to fight the gov- ernment or to consult appraisers on the accurate value of their land, Some have questioned why the push for access to their properties is coming as the coro- navirus spreads and they try to avoid social contact. ‘A Trump campaign rally in Las Vegas. The government has filed lawsuits against Texas landowners in an effort to deliver on Mr. Trump's promises ofa border wall. ee “Melissa Cigarroa's husband, Carlos, and daughter, Annalis,on their property in Zapata County, Texas. Melissa Cigarroa has refused to allow the government on her land. “They want to doit all obviously prior to November” and the election, said Steven Kobernat, a 61-year-old land- owner in Starr County who said he felt hounded by the Department of Justice. “Buthere wearein apandemic. Wecan’t ‘meet, we can't meet with our families. ‘And then D.0.1. says it's time-sensitive in atime of pandemic. I's just absurd” ‘The Justice Department said in a statement, “We are following all local, state and federal Covid protocols for all phases of land acquisition and court work” Raini Brunson, a spokeswoman for the Army Corps of Engineers, which is leading construction, said the agency ‘was committed to the safety of employ- ees, contractors and “the people in com- ‘munitiesin which we work.” The agency “continues to execute its border barrier infrastructure mission in order to safe- guard national security capabilities” she added. Ms. Alvarez had just come back to ‘Starr County in March when shenoticed something strange on her property: construction markers jammed into the earth to measure elevation. Crews had come to her land while she was in Wash- ington to testify to Congress against the border wall, Months before, Ms. Alvarez had en- countered government contractors on her property who claimed they had re- ceived permission fromarelative tosur- vey the land. She refused them access, but her family has continued to see con- struction crews driving around their land. Mr. Kobernat feels similar pressure, When the Army Corps of Engineers pressed him to accept an offer for seven Acres ofhis family’s farm, he pleaded for time to allow the pandemic o ebb, “Thereis sudden mad rush to obtain our property by pushing us to sign and sellimmediately: But due to the extraor- inary current pandemic crisis, we sim- ply need more time,” Mr. Kobernat ‘wrote in an April 27 email to officials with the Army Corps and the US. Bor- der Patrol “Our family is presently un- able to safely confer with each other or our attorney as we need to — due to my mayor, my governor and your boss's shelter-in-place rules” Shortly after that, he began getting calls from the Justice Department telling him to cooperate with the Army Corps or risk a lawsuit. Lawyers and government officials agree that landowners already had few options. They can choose to voluntarily allow the government to enter and survey their land and, if the administration wants it, aceept compensation that is supposed tobe based on fair market valk ue. But if they refuse, they are likely to be taken to court, where the govern- ‘ment can use eminent domain powers to argue thatthe wall isan emergency and eventually take possession oftheir land. ‘The government can then begin con- struction, even while continuing to ar- ue with the landowners over compen- sation. Ricky Garza, a staff lawyer for the ‘Texas Civil Rights Project, said the tim- ing of the government's push for private property had made what was already an uphill batle for the landowners even ‘more challenging. “They've taken advantage of people sheltering in place” Mr. Garza said “People have not been able to seek out attorneys.” fe haven't seen any signs of itslow- ing down," he added. “The landowner is really at the mercy of what the govern- ‘ment i trying to do” Many ofthe property owners are stil enlisting lawyers to negotiate. Some hope they can delay the process beyond the election, when the construction of the wall may not beas much ofa priority ‘But Mr. Trump is pressing forward as fast as possible. AS the coronavirus spread in March, he tweeted, “We need the Wall more than ever” despite a top health oficia’s saying he had not seen evidence that physical barriers would prevent the spread of the virus. The president's border agency recently Started a website showcasing videos of the walls construction, months after Mr. Kushner and his allies pushed the De- partment of Homeland Security to livestream the building ofthe project. ‘The administration has also waived federal contracting laws to speed con- struction of the wall; 194 miles have been completed, up from 93 in Decem- ber Allbutthree ofthe miles are in areas Where dilapidated barriers existed or Vehicle barriers once stood. The federal government also recently gave anearly $13 billion contract to a North Dakota company backed by Stephen K. Bannon, former Trump adviser, to construct 42 niles ofthe wall, though the Office of In spector General for the Department of Defense had examined an earlier $400 milion contract given to the company. With recent funding transfers from the Department of Defense, the admi {stration now has $15 billion to build 731 miles of border wall. John B. Mennell, a Customs and Border Protection spokes- ‘man, pointed to data that suggested the agency could build about 500 miles of wall on federal border land, without pri- vate acquisitions. The agency has apparently tried to lower expectationsin recent months, re moving language from weekly border ‘wall bulletins that said the administra- tion expected to have 450 miles com- pleted by the end of the year. By the Trump administration's own logie, private land in South Texas is where the wallis most needed. The bor- der agency recorded more than 34,000 illegal crossings in the Rio Grande Val- Jey in fiscal year 2019, the most of any border sector. “tis the shortest land route from the Guatemala-Mexico border to the US.” said Gil Kerlikowske, the Customs and Border Protection commissioner under President Barack Obama. “Itis an envi- ronment thats very difficultto enforce? he said, adding, “It should be the foal point” Melissa Cigarroa, 53, said she had rarely thought of the border in Zapata County, Texas, as dangerous. The land brings to mind skeet shooting or wateh- ing aoudads — or Barbary sheep — make their way through her family’s 150-acre ranch So far, she has refused to sign docu- ‘ments allowing the government to enter her property. “Why are we going to be the guinea pigs?" Ms. Cigarroa said. “We're such a littietownontheborder.Itisridiculous.” Mr. Kobernat, the Starr County land- owner, sad he would not give the federal government an answer until he could meet with his siblings, who share own- ership of the property All of them are ‘vulnerable to the coronavirus. Handling of bailout could test Trump WASHINGTON BY ALAN RAPPEPORT AND NICK CORASANITI ‘When restaurant industry executives gathered at the White House this month, Tilman J. Fertitta pleaded with Presi- dent Trump to let his chains of high-end eateries gain access to a government loan program meant for small bus nesses. Mr. Fertitta the billionaire owner of the restaurant group Landry's, told Mr. ‘Trump it was unfair that he had tolay off 40,000 workers at his 600 restaurants only because they were employed by a larger corporation that was suddenly boxed out of the program amid public outrage over big companies’ getting bailouts. ‘Mr. Trump turned to Treasury Secre- tary Steven Mnuchin, whose rule cchanges had excluded companies like Landry's, which owns restaurants like Del Frisco's Double Eagle Steakhouse ‘and Morton's Grille, to see if there was ‘anything he could do to help. “L mean, he's got @ unique situation?” Mr. Trump said of Mr. Fertitta, who nearly a decade ago bought an Alantic ity casino from Trump Entertainment Resorts, a now-defunct company once partly owned by Mr. Trump before he ‘was president. “You know, he has alot of restaurants.” ‘Mr: Mnuchin, observing thatthe polit- ically charged debate was taking place with cameras rolling, demurred, “We don't need to have this infront of all of ‘our friends back there," he said. ‘The Trump administration's carrying. ‘out of the largest economic bailout in ‘American history has emerged as a po- litical liability for the president, with businesses, banks and Democrats as- sailing the White House over its han- ing ofa centerpiece program intended to help keep businesses and workers afloat during the virus-induced shut- down. Funds have flowed to rich hoteliers, the Los Angeles Lakers and Planned Parenthood affiliates, sending Mr. ‘Trump's advisers scrambling to reclaim ‘money and tighten the program’sterms. ‘With more than 30 million Americans Jobless and economists predicting that thousands of small businesses could lose permanently, the Paycheck Pro- tection Program's troubles are shaping up as an opportunity for Democrats, heading into the 2020 election. “Top Democrats, including the party's presumptive presidential nominee, Jo- seph R. Biden Jr, have seized on exam- piles of rich executives’ getting money ‘ahead of small businesses through the program as indicative of corporate cronyism. ‘This month, the Democratic National Committee and Democratic state par- tiesin swing states held conference calls with reporters and other events high- lighting stories of small-business own- es who did not get approved for loans. In Maine, four small businesses — an animation studio, a beauty salon, a Pi- lates gym and a cafe and bookshop — all told their stories of frustrations and fail ures with the Paycheck Protection Pro- ‘gram, prodded by the head of the state Democratic Party. ‘In Georgia, the state party held asimi- lar call, with the owners of a cafe and a nanny Service both lamenting their in- ability to get funding from the program. In Florida, Tom Perez, the chairman of the Democratic National Com held a virtual event with local business ‘owners and elected officials to make the ‘case that the use of the PPP. was hurting the Latino community. The shortcom- ings of the program, Mr. Perez prom- ‘sed, would become a central focus ofthe committee's messaging for the year. “These are the stories that we're go- {ng to tell” Mr, Perez said. “The stories of tragedy among small-business own- ers. The stories of misuse of resources to help Trump and his buddies. The story ‘ofa Latino community that isa lifeblood ‘community inthis state and inthis coun- ‘try. We're going tobe goingeverywhere, ‘and we're going to make sure that come lection time, people see this” ‘The Trump administration has hailed theloan program, which was part of leg- islation that passed Congress with bi- partisan support, as a major success. Mr. Mnuchin has claimed that the loans. hhave been a lifeline that saved millions ‘ofjobs. To date, $511 billion inloanshave been approved, with an average loan size of $116,000, according to the Small Business Administration. ‘Some Republican candidates are run- ning their own ads embracing the effort. Senator Susan Collins, Republican of Maine, who is facing a tough re-election battle, has spent nearly $500,000 on ads that promote her role in “co-authoring” the program, according to data from Ad- vertising Analytics, an ad tracking firm. ‘And Senator Mitch McConnell, Re- publican of Kentucky and the majority leader, spent $175,000 onan ad featuring, ‘small-business owners and employees describing jobs and businesses that had been “rescued” by Mr. McConnell’ ef- forts on the stimulus package. ‘Butleft-leaning groupshave seizedon the program's stumbles and are spend- ing heavily to get that message to vot- ers. Priorities USA, oneof the largest su- per PACS on the Democratic side, has been paying Facebook to promote cer- tain news articles — a tactic known as “boosted news” — that highlight short- ‘comings of the program. acronym, a progressive super PAC that focuses on digital advertising, be- ‘gan running a $1.9 million ad campaign in five swing states — Arizona, Michi- ‘gan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and ‘Wisconsin — that focused on struggling ‘small businesses. “Its so important that we counter the ties and misinformation that the presi- dent is going to spew about quote-un- ‘quote economicrecovery and makesure voters know whois to blame fr this eco- nomic crisis” said Tara McGowan, chief ‘executive and founder of Pacronym. Democrats and allied groups have been buoyed by polling from Navigator Research, which is overseen by leaders ‘of several progressive organizations, that found a majority of Americans were “very concerned” that the loans were ‘going to large corporations and bus nesses like the Los Angeles Lakers, in ‘stead of small businesses. Democrats hope to turn the problems to their advantage. ‘The issue is already coming up on the virtual campaign trail. Mr. Biden has been raising Mr. Trump's management of the stimulus money with growing fre- ‘quency in television interviews and on social media. This month, Mr. Biden vowed that if ‘elected, he would appoint a new inspec- tor general to investigate where the stimulus money had gone and refer any misdeeds or “corrupt giveaways" to the ‘Justice Department for prosecution. The Paycheck Protection Program, ‘which provides forgivable loans to cover eight weeks of payroll and overhead costs to businesses with 500 or fewer employees, has benefited many small ‘companies. More than four million loans have been approved and, according to the Federal Reserve's ‘most recent “Beige Book” report, the program has helped limit layoffs. ‘But the rollout has not gone smoothly, with technical glitches and delays ham- pering efforts to send money out the door and millions of dollars in loans ap- proved for large companies, including those that are publicly traded and had other access to capital ‘report by S&P Global Ratings found that in the first round of the program, ‘seven out of 10 states that received the largest loan amounts had the lowest un- ‘employment rates, while eight out of 10 states that got the smallest loan ‘amounts had the highest unemploy- ment rates. California businesses have been the biggest recipients of loan ‘money in the two rounds of the program, ‘After it became public that big fran- chises, including ‘Shake Shack and Ruth's Chris Steak House, were getting, Toans, Mr. Mnuchin warned that firms ‘with access to other capital should repay the loans or face criminal liability for ly- ing on their applications. ‘This month, amid backlash from Re- publicans, the Small Business Adminis tration sent letters to Planned Parent- ‘hood affiliates ordering them to return loan money because they were not sup- posed to be eligible to apply. ‘The U.S. House of Representativeson ‘Thursday approved a bill that would ‘give companies more time and flexibil- ity to use the money. It remains unclear whether the pro- ‘gram will be replenished when it runs ‘Out of funds for a second time, but it will most likely continue to put Mr. Trump ‘and Republicans on the defensive. ‘Sonny Perdue, the agriculture secretary, with Niren Chaudhary, chief of Panera Bread, ‘who has sought access to a government loan program meant for small businesses. 6 | SATURDAY-SUNDAY, MAY 30-31, 2020 ‘THE NEW YORK TIMES INTERNATIONAL EDITION Business New York confronts economic collapse City considers borrowing billions of dollars to cover its operating expenses BY LUIS FERRESADURNI, JEFFERY C. MAYS [AND JESSE MCKINLEY ‘The coronavirus pandemic has plunged New York into the most dire fiscal crisis, the city has faced in generations. More than 900,000 people have lost their jobs since February, and thousands of busi- nesses have closed. ‘The streets remain empty of workers and visitors: Nearly 117,000 people filed new unemployment claims in the sec- ond week of May, staggering 2,206 per- cent increase from the previous year. ‘Tourism, which generates roughly $70 billion a year in economic activity, has disappeared. ‘The real estate market is stagnant; salesare projected tobe down bya third. People are not spending money; sales tax revenueis expected to drop by SLbil lion — part of an anticipated $9 billion shortfall in city tax revenue that could force drastic cuts to essential services. ‘The grim outlook has forced top off cials to contemplate a maneuver that has been inconceivable since it brought ‘New York to disrepair and the brink of bankruptcy in the 1970s: allowing the city to borrow billions of dollars to pay for basic operating expenses. ‘Numerous budget experts and public officials, including Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo, are leery of giving the city per- mission to solve its budget problems by taking on significant debt, sensitive to thereckless borrowing that began more than 50 years ago under Mayor Robert Wagner and accelerated under the city's next two mayors, John V. Lindsay and Abraham D. Beame. ‘The shortsighted economic strategy — Mr. Wagner blithely called it a “bor- row now, repay later” philosophy — was ‘one reason New York City reached the brink of bankruptcy in 1975, leading to the creation of the New York State Fi- nancial Control Board, which was given broad oversight of the city’s financial management Mayor Bill de Blasio, who has asked legislative leaders to grant him permis- sion to issue bonds to cover the city's op- erating costs, has said he would do so only as a “last resort” Doing so, however, has increasingly become a real possibility: Legislative leaders, returning inthe past week from a nearly two-month hiatus to vote on a ‘number of coronavirus-related bills, are discussing the issue with the governor's office and city officials. “What do you do if you don't have the option of some amount of borrowing? You have to do massive cuts, massive cuts to all city agencies” Mr. de Blasio said on Thursday. “That will undermine any possibility of the right kind of re- start and recovery. So, borrowing the right way, it makes sense” "The city is far from alone in con- fronting an economic collapse. New York State is expecting as much as $13 billion ess in tax revenue this year; Cal- ifornia faces a $54 billion budget deficit and Los Angeles has a24 percent unem- ployment rate. Nine states, including New York and California, have bor- rowed from the federal government to reinforce their unemployment insur- ance trust funds. Hundreds of thousands of New Yorkers have lost their jobs, and thousands of businesses, like some in Coney Island, above and below left, have closed during the coronavirus pandemic. Below right, Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo is one of the many officials leery of giving New York City permission to solve its budget problems by taking on significant debt. ‘And in New York State's recently passed budget, lawmakers included a provision that gave Mr. Cuomo the abil- ity to borrow up to Sit billion, giving budget officials increased flexibility amid uncertain revenue forecasts. State Senator Liz Krueger, chairwoman of the Senate Finance Committee, said the city ‘was merely asking for the same leeway that the Legislature recently granted the governor. But New York City’s problems, and its request to potentially borrow ts way out of them, have added resonance because ofhow disastrously that scenario played out in the mid-1970s, the city’s last and ‘most notorious brush with the fiscal abyss, ‘The Financial Control Board forced the city toabsorb drastic spending cuts: Workers were let go, and hospitals were closed. Crimes and disorder rose; tens of thousands of residents fled the city, as. ‘New York turned into a national symbol of urban decay. Mr. Cuomo, who prides himself on be- ing fiscally conservative and would need to sign the legislation, referenced the 1970s nadir as he cautioned against granting New York City borrowing ca- pacity. He said on Thursday that al- though government had long issued 10H warnern es of, PS CL bonds to pay for longterm capital projects, doing so for operating ex- penses was fiscally questionable. “We don’t want to create a situation where the state or any local government borrows so much money that they can’t repay it,and then youhaveto start tocut service and now you're in that vicious downward spiral” Mr. Cuomo, a third- term Democrat, said during abriefing at the New York Stock Exchange in Man- hattan on Tuesday. “New York City has been there before.” Indeed, economists frown on borrow- ing to cover operating expenses, saying that debt should ideally be taken on only for large, long-term projects — espe- cially ones that generate income, like toll bridges and roads. Borrowing for short-term needs, much like taking a loan tocover rent, does nothing tofix the cause of the deficit while shifting the debt to future generations. ‘Scott M. Stringer, the city comptroller, ‘said that f the city borrowed $7 billion to ‘cover current expenses, it would most likely be on the hook for more than $500 million a year in debt payments for the next 20 years. “That $500 million means less for teachers, child care and restricts ‘our ability to borrow for needed infra- ‘NEW YORK, PAGE 7 Post-pandemic inflation may be just what the U.S. needs BY NEIL IRWIN I's not just the usual inflation alarmists, Many people now see high inflation lurking around the corner, a world where, in the not-too-distant future, ma- jor economies will face upwardly spiral- ing prices. ‘There are lots of reasons, however, to think that the possibility of an early 2020s inflation surge is at best a distrac- tion and at worst something that could lead to bad policy today. Itrisks ignoring an imminent and clear-cut erisis that is mainly deflationary — causing falling prices. Still, i's worth considering the concerns of those who see a meaningful chance of the return of inflation, Their story goes like this: ‘The public health crisis caused by the coronavirus comes to an end, with ei ther a vaccine or more reliable trea ‘ments, People rush tostores and restau rants and resume buying, with lots of pent-up demand after months in quar- antine. Meanwhile, a wave of shutdowns. leaves shortages across the economy: factories that haven’t been producing, crops rotting in fields and globalization reverses. When those trends run head- on into a huge increase in federal deficits and money creation by central banks aimed at containing the economic crisis, 0 much money will be sloshing. around the economy relative to what is, being produced, and prices will rise. tis a cogent story, with versions of it embraced by thoughtful commentators including Charles Goodhart of the Lon- don School of Economies and Nouriel Roubini of New York University. Even some who reject it acknowledge that thereis an extraordinarily wide range of possibilities for what the world economy will ook like down the road, andit would be foolish to rule it out. Olivier Blanch- ard, a former chief economist at the In- ternational Monetary Fund, recently wrote, “I cannot completely dismiss a small probability of high inflation.” It’s an interesting intellectual parlor game. But it's less clear that it any- thing more than that or whether it should matter for people making policy today. “T think trying to predict where infla- tion is going to be in a few years is a ‘mug’s game,” said Kristin Forbes, an economist at the Massachusetts Insti- tute of Technology and a former official at the United States Treasury and the Bank of England. “Policymakersneedto be ready for different scenarios.” ‘While there are shortages and price spikes for a handful of goods, particu- larly meat and personal protective gear, there is a glut of almost everything else that is driving prices down. And mass unemployment means that wage growth will most likely be weak or non- existent for the foreseeable future, as workers have no bargaining power to demand raises, Inflation could well go through a yo- yo effect, as is already happening with ‘ther economic indicators, Indeed, by ‘many measures that is the kind of reali- ty that financial markets are pricing in. Consider the path of ol prices in the years ahead that is implied by the fu- tures market. On Friday, abarrel of West. ‘Texas Intermediate crudeoll, the United States standard, for delivery in July was trading at about $33.25, The price for de- ivery in July 2021 was around $37.50 — implying a 13 percent surge in the price of lover the coming year, which would tend to push overall consumer prices ‘Anoil service company near Stanton, Texas. Inflation could go through a yo-yo effect, as upward, But that still suggests a de- pressed oil market — a level at which there are widespread bankruptcies among drillers and a price well below its level at the beginning of the year (S61). Even the most distant available futures contract, for February 2031, ast traded at about $5775, impiying expectations that a decade from now oil prices will still be below their pre-pandemic level. You could apply the same logic not only to other commodities, but also to service industries that are heavily af- fected by the pandemic. Hotels, for ex- ample, are running far below capacity, with 32 percent occupancy in the week that ended May 16, according to the re- search firm STR. That has led them to {is already happening with some economic indicators, including the path of ol prices. slash prices, with average daily rates down 42 percent from a year earlier. ‘As public health concerns start to re- cede, its plausible that hotels will start filling up and raising their prices in ‘ways that create an apparent surge of inflation, even while occupancy remains far below long-term norms. In other ‘words, inflation would be not so much a reflection of an economy that had over- heated as an artifact of the strange spring of 2020. It is easy to see the outlines of a pre- dicament for the Fed in the next few years. There could easily be inflation rates that are well above its 2 percent target while prices over all are still be- low pre-pandemic levels. That would suggest that all the problems deflation ‘can create —in particular, making debts ‘more onerous — would still be very much alive, even as the economic head- lines pointed to spiking prices. It certainly could be a political prob- lem for the Fed, and cause pain for ‘American workers, if prices for con- ‘sumer goods rise while wages are stag- ‘nant or falling. But it would fundamen- tally reflect an economy that was start- ing to heal, not one that had overheated ‘or one in which policymakers had flooded the system with too much ‘money. And that speaks to an irony in the inflation hand-wringing that has ‘emerged in the last few weeks. In many ways, an inflation surge in the early 20208 would be a signal that all the ef- {forts being taken now (toflood the finan- cial system with cash, to prop up smaller businesses and aid uriemployed people) hhad worked, Over the last several decades, global- ization most likely pulled inflation downward in advanced nations as they imported goods made with cheaper la- bor in China and other emerging mar- kets. Today, the potential for de-global- ization is real, especially as geopolitical tension between the United States and ‘China rises. But such trends tendto play ‘out gradually. Inthe next few years, ifthe Fed has to raise interest rates and Congress has to ‘cut budget deficits to stop inflation from settling in at excessive rates, that will reflect an economy that has returned to full health. So, isinflation on the horizon once the pandemic is contained? Maybe the an- ‘swer s yes, and maybe tisno. But may- be the best answer is: We should be so lucky. Trump chops at internet shield that protects him NEWS ANALYSIS WASHINGTON Executive order could make ‘Twitter responsible for president's messages BY PETER BAKER AND DAISUKE WAKABAYASHI President Trump, who built his political ‘career on the power of aflame-throwing ‘Twitter account, has now gone to war with Twitter, angered that it would pre- ‘sume to fact-check his messages. But the punishment he is threatening could force social media companies to crack down more on customers just like Mr. order that Mr. Trump signed on Thursday seeks to strip liabil- ity protection in certain cases for com- panies like Twitter, Google and Face- ook for the content on their sites, ‘meaning they could face legal jeopardy if they allowed false and defamatory Posts. Without a liability shield, they presumably would have to be more ag- ‘gressive about policing messages that press the boundaries — like the presi- dent's “That, of course, is not the outcome Mr. ‘Trump wants. What he wantsis the free- dom to post anything he likes without the companies’ applying any judgment to his messages, as Twitter did when it began appending “get the facts” warn- ings to some of his false posts on voter fraud. Furious at what he called “censor- ship” — even though his messages were not in fact deleted — Mr. Trumpis wield- ing the proposed executive order like a ‘lub to compel the company to back down. ‘What Mr. Trump wants is the freedom to post anything he likes without the companies’ applying any judgment to his messages. It may not work even as intended, Plenty of lawyers quickly said on Thurs day that he was claiming power to do something that he does not have the power to do by essentially revising the interpretation of Section 230 of the Com- munications Decency Act, the main United States law, passed by Congress {in 1996, tolay out therules ofthe road for online media. Legal experts predicted ‘such a move would be challenged and ‘most likely struck down by the courts. But the logic of Mr. Trump's order is intriguing because it attacks the very le- ‘gal provision that has allowed him such latitude to publish with impunity a whole host of inflammatory, harassing ‘and factually distorted messages that a media provider might feel compelled to take down if it were forced into the role ‘of a publisher that faced the risk of legal liability rather than a distributor that does not. “Ironically, Donald Trump is a big beneficiary of Section 230," said Kate Ruane, a Senior legislative counsel for the American Civil Liberties Union, Which instantly objected tothe proposed order. “If platforms were not immune under the law, then they would not risk the legal liability that could come with hosting Donald Trump's lies, defama- tion and threats” In amove that threatened to increase the tension, Twitter said early Friday that a tweet from President Trump sug- gesting that protesters in Minneapolis could be shot violated the company's rules against glorifying violence. The company prevented users from viewing Mr. Trump's message without first reading a brief notice describing the rule violation. Twitter also blocked users from liking or replying to Mr. ‘Trump's post. ‘But Twitter did not take the tweet down, saying it was in the public’ inter- fest that the message remain accessible. ‘Mr. Trump has long posted false and disparaging messages to his 80 million followers on Twitter, disregarding com- plaints about their accuracy or fairness. In recent weeks, he has repeatedly is- ‘sued tweets that essentially falsely ac- ‘cused Joe Scarborough, the MSNBC host, of murdering a staff member in 2001 when he was a congressman. Mr. Scarborough was 800 miles away at the time and the police found no signs of foul play. The aide's widower asked Twitter todelete the messages, but it refused. ‘Mr. Trump and his allies argue that so- «ial media companies have shown bias ‘against conservatives and need to be reined in. While the companies are pri- vate organizations, not governmental, the president and his allies argue that the companies have ineffect become the public square envisioned by the founders of the United States when they drafted the First Amendment to the Constitution and therefore should not be Weighing in on one side or the other. The First Amendment is the constitutional protection of free speech, “If @Twitter wants to editorialize & ‘comment on users’ posts it should be di- FREE SPEECH, PAGE? ‘THE NEW YORK TIMES INTERNATIONAL EDITION SATURDAY-SUNDAY, MAY 30-31, 2020 | 7. BUSINESS President Trump at the White House in the past week. He reacted angrily after Twitter appended “get the facts” warnings to some of his false posts on voter fraud. Internet order could backfire ‘FREE SPEECH, FROM PAGE 6 vested ofits special status under federal (Section 230) & forced to play by same rules as all other publishers,” Sen- ator Josh Hawley, a Republican from Missouri who has vowed legislation on the matter, said on Twitter. “Fairs fai ‘The order that Mr. Trump signed said that an online provider that weighs inon some tweets beyond certain limited con- ditions “should properly lose the limited liability shield” of the law “and be ex- posed to liability like any traditional edi- tor and publisher that is not an online provider” ‘The order asks the Federal Communi cations Commission to draft regulations to that effect and directs the Federal ‘Trade Commission to consider action against providers that “restrict speech in ways that do not align with those enti ties’ public representations about those practices” On Thursday, Mr. Trump framed his goal as combating bias. “Currently, so- ial media giants like Twitter receive an ‘unprecedented liability shield based on the theory that they're a neutral plat- form, which they're not,” he said in the Oval Office as he signed the order. But some government officials said his plan was unenforceable. “This does Jessica Rosenworcel, amem- ber of the RC.C. who was first appointed under President Barack Obama, said in a statement. “Social media can be frus- trating. But an executive order that would turn the Federal Communica- tions Commission into the president's speech police is not the answer. I's time for those in Washington to speak up for the First Amendment. History won't be kind to silence: Even some conservatives objected, warning that the president was handing control of the internet to the “adminis- trative state” and creating a bonanza for liberal trial lawyers to go after unpopu- lar speakers traditionally filtered out by the mainstream media — including those like Mr. Trump himself, “Conservatives must appreciate the fact that social media has empowered countless new voices on the right and al- lowed them to garner millions of follow- ers and billions of views," said Patrick Hedger, aresearch fellow at the Compet- ive Enterprise Institute, a libertarian think tank. “The net effect of social media has been overwhelmingly positive," he said. ‘The Communications Decency Act was passed during the dawn of the mod- ern information age, intended at first to make it easier for online sites run by early internet companies like Prodigy and AOL to block pornography, even when it was constitutional, without run- ning afoul of legal challenges. By labeling such sites distributors, rather than publishers, Section 230 gave them important immunity from law- suits. Over time, the law became the guarantor of a rollicking, almost no- holds-barred internet by letting sites set. rules for what is ands not allowed with- utbeing liable for everything posted by visitors, as opposed to a newspaper, which is responsible for whatever it publishes. Since Section 230 was signed into law by President Bill Clinton, the courts have repeatedly shot down challenges to get around it, invoking a broad inter- pretation of immunity. Erie Goldman, a professor at Santa Clara University'Law School in Califor- nia and a director of the High Tech Law Institute there, said that the order “doesn't stand a chance in court” but that it could do some damage until a le- gal challenge reached the judicial sys- tem. While the courts have sided with the internet companies, Congress is adiffer- ent matter. Both Republicans and Dem- ocrats have taken issue with the protec- tions afforded to social media compa- nies, even though they disagree on why. Republicans have accused the compa- nies of censoring conservative voices and violating the spirit of the law that the internet should be a forum for a di- versity of political discourse. Democrats have argued that the com- panies have not done enough to remove problematic content or to police har- assment. Jeff Kosseff,a cybersecurity law pro- fessor at the United States Naval Acad- emy and the author of a book about the law, “The Twenty-Six Words That Creat- ed the Internet.” said he believed that Section 230 would be repealed by Con- ‘gress in the next few years. In the meantime, Mr. Trump's order ‘may still have an impact. “I think what the order is trying to do is say a com- pany like Twitter holds itself out to be a neutral platform, and when it is biased against conservatives, it is acting de- ceptively.” said Jeffrey Westling, a tech nology and innovation policy fellow at R Street Institute, a conservative public policy research organizatic ‘Mr. Westling said the legal theory ‘would probably be difficult to pursue. “Theissue have and I think alot of peo- ple are starting to realize is the execu- tive order doesnt need to be legally en- forceable to still be a threat to these companies,” he said. “The companies will likely win any challenge, but no one wants to go through litigation. It be- comes a cost-benefit analysis of, ‘Is it ‘worth it to put afact check the next time the president puts a false tweet out there?" eter Baker reported from Washington, ‘and Daisuke Wakabayashi from Oak: land, Calif. Kate Conger contributed re- porting from Oakland, and Maggie Ha- berman from New York. Twitter doubles down on fact warnings ‘OAKLAND, CALIF. Questionable posts tagged in a move that intensifies confrontation with Trump BY KATE CONGER AND MIKE ISAAC ‘Twitter has added new fact-checking la- bels to hundreds of tweets, even as the ‘Trump administration issued an execu- tive order to curtail the legal protections that shield social media companies from liability for the content posted on their platforms. ‘Twitter's move escalated the con- frontation between the company and President Trump, who has been fulmi- nating over actions taken by his favorite social media service. ‘Twitter on Tuesday appended fact- checking labels for the first time to two of Mr. Trump's tweets about mail-in bal- lots, rebutting their accuracy. In re~ sponse, Mr. Trump accused Twitter of stifling’ speech and declared that he ‘would put a stop to the interference. ‘On Thursday, Mr. Trump signed an executive order to make it easier for fed- eral regulators to argue that companies like Facebook, Google and Twitter were suppressing free speech when they sus- pended users or deleted posts. The com- panies have had “unchecked power to censor, restrict, edit, shape, hide, alter any form of communication between private citizens or large public audi- ences,” he said, But Twitter has not relented. Late Wednesday, it added fact-checking la- bels to messages from Zhao Lijian, a spokesman for China's Foreign Ministry who had claimed that the coronavirus outbreak may have begun in the United States and been carried to China by the US. military, ‘Twitter also added notices on hun- dreds of tweets that falsely claimed a photo of a man in a red baseball cap was ‘The San Francisco head office of Twitter, which added fact-checking labels to messages Derek Chauvin, an officer involved in the death of George Floyd, an African- American man who died in the past week after being handcuffed and pinned to the ground by police. The Twitter la- bel alerted viewers that the image was “manipulated media.” ‘The skirmish between Twitter and Mr. ‘Trump shows that a backlash against large tech companies, which had reced- ed during the pandemic, is now back in full force. The Justice Department has also recently signaled that it is prepar- ing to bring an antitrust case against Google, perhaps as soon as this summer. "The executive order “seems designed to punish a handful of companies for perceived slights,” said Jon Berroya, chief executive of the Internet Associa tion, a lobbying group representing ‘many of the major tech companies. “It stands to undermine a variety of gov- ernment efforts to protect public safety and spread critical information online through social media and threatens the vibrancy of a core segment of our econ- omy” from a Chinese government official about how the coronavirus initially spread. A Twitter spokeswoman said that the tweets modified on Wednesday con- tained “potentially misteading content” and that the fact-checking was consi tent with the company’s approach this ‘month. In a series of tweets on Wednesday, Jack Dorsey, Twitter's chief executive, also said he would not back down from the fact-checking effort. “We'll continue to point out incorrect oF disputed infor- mation,” he wrote ‘The executive order aims at protec- tions granted to technology services un- der Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act. The law gives tech compa nies such as Facebook, Google and Twit- ter broad immunity from liability for content created by their users. ‘As Mr. Trump and other conservative figures have claimed that social media companies are biased against them, Re~ publican lawmakers have proposed ‘modifications to the statute. Senator Josh Hawley of Missouri has argued that tomaintain Section 230 protections, social media services should be re- quired to submit toathird-party auditto ensure their content moderation sys- tems are politically neutral Senator Ron Wyden, a Democrat from Oregon who wrote the law, said Mr. ‘ump was threatening Section 230 to “chill speech and bully” the big tech ‘companies into giving the White House ‘more favorable treatment, “He's clearly targeting Section 230 be- cause it protects private businesses’ right not to have to play host to his lie Mr. Wyden said ina statement. “Efforts to erode Section 230 will only make on- Tine content more likely to be false and dangerous” ‘The executive orders ikely tofacele- gal challenges. Harold Feld, the senior vice president of Public Knowledge, a policy nonprofit ‘group, said the order appeared to be tended to limit speech on social media that disagreed with the president. That was “literally the worst case scenario that the authors ofthe First Amendment were afraid of” he said, referring to free speech protections in the Constitution. ‘Twitter's confrontation with Mr. ‘Trump has also opened new fissures in Silicon Valley. Mr. Dorsey has doubled down on factchecking tweets, but Mark Zuckerberg, Facebook's chief executive, has distanced his social network from that effort. “L just believe strongly that Facebook shouldn'tbe the arbiter of truthofevery- thing that people say online” Mr Zuckerberg said in a taped television in- terview that ran Thursday morning on Fox News. ‘On Twitter, Mr. Dorsey fired back af- ter Mr. Zuckerberg's comments became public before they were aired. “This does not make us an ‘arbiter of truth!” he said of his decision to fact- check tweets. “Our intention is to con- rect the dots of conflicting statements and show the information in dispute so people can judge for themselves.” Kate Conger reported from Oakland, Calif, and Mike Isaac from San Fran- New York considers borrowing heavily [NEW YORK, FROM PAGE 6 ‘structure improvements,” he said. But the mayor said on Wednesday that he could not make further reduc- tions without leading the city toa “horri- ble place where we would be cutting back basic services, cutting back per- sonnel, furloughs, layoffs, things we do rot want to see, things that go against everything that we believe is right for New York Cit Mr. de Blasio, a Democrat, said that his $89.3 billion executive budget, re- leased in April, already included $2.7 bil lion in cuts to a bevy of municipal serv- ices, including traffic safety enforce- ment, tree pruning and a program that provided thousands of poor young peo- ple with summer jobs. The city has also had to spend $1.4 bil- tion to fight the pandemic, a sum that of- ficials anticipate will rise to $3.5 billion by the end of the year. In the negotiations over whether state lawmakers should give the city the latitude to borrow money, the possibility hhas been raised of giving the Financi Control Board, whose broad control ‘over the city's budget expired decades ago, the added power to formally ap- prove any bond issuances. ‘The board has seven members, three ‘of whom are appointed by the governor, who also serves on the board. City off cials oppose giving the board any added oversight power. ‘The state last authorized the city to takeon debt for operating costs alter the terrorist attacks on Sept. Il. The move — which followed an appeal from Michael R. Bloomberg, who was then mayor — ‘gave city officials financial breathing room and allowed them to issue so- called recovery bonds. Lawmakers from the city, who domi- nate the Democraticled Legislature, say that the current situation calls for similar measures. In February, before the economy shuttered, the city had 4,669,000 million jobs, according to the Independent Budget Office. By April, the city had 3,756,900 jobs — a loss of 912,100. Cer- tain sectors like the hospitality industry were hit particularly hard: Hotel occu ancy plummeted to 15 percent in the last week in March, down from an aver- age of 88 percent in 2019, “The city is in distress,” said Michael Gianaris, a Democratic’ state senator from Queens who serves as deputy m: jority leader. “And we should do what is reasonable to avoid billions of dollars of service cuts” ‘Senator Krueger, a Democrat who represents the East Side of Manhattan and introduced the borrowing bill, said that giving the city the authority to bor- row up to $8 billion “doesn't mean they're actually going to use it” adding that it was “not an unreasonable ask for the city to make” Legislators don't plan to vote on the bill yet, after failing to reach an agree- ment with the governor and city offi als, but negotiations continue, and the proposal could be brought up for a vote in the coming weeks. Both the mayor and the governor have said that without substantial fed- eral recovery funds, essential city and state services, like policing, health care ‘and education, would be endangered. Indeed, Republican resistance to ad- ditional financial support for states has increased in Washington, particularly for those led by Democrats. Last month, the Senate majority leader, Mitch Mc- Connell, brought a furious retort from Mr. Cuomo after referring to possible ‘additional federal funding for state and local governments as a “blue-state bail- ‘out,’ chastising such states for past fis- cal irresponsibility, ‘That line of aitack was echoed by President Trump, who met with Mr Cuomo in the White House on Wednes- day. ‘Mr. Cuomo said that allowing the city toborrow could dissuade Congress from giving New York the billions of dollars in federal funding the governor and mayor have said are critically needed. ‘Borrowing, it seems painless, but it’s not at all. Basically what you do is make future New Yorkers pay for your bills.” ‘Mr. de Blasio is already relying on re- serve funds to balance the budget. The city is drawing $2 6billion from the ret ‘eehealth benefit trust, $900 million from ‘general reserves and $250 million from the capital stabilization reserve to bal- ‘ance the 2021 budget, according to the Independent Budget Office. ‘Andrew Rein, the president ofthe Citi- zens Budget Commission, a fiscally con- servative watchdog, said the city could still find additional savings in its budget. Getting permission to borrow could lead City officials to avoid “making the hard choices today,” he said. “Borrowing, it seems painless, but it's not at all” he Said. “Basically what you do is make future New Yorkers pay for ‘your bills. I's pretty clear to us that the ‘ity should not go there yet. There is a Jot more that it could do.” Progressive lawmakers, whose elec- tion in 2018 helped Democrats regain ‘control of the Legislature for the first time in nearly a decade, have proposed ‘another potential solution: a series of new taxes on the wealthy, which activ- ists say will raise billions of dollars in new revenue. Those proposals, howev- cer, were not on the Legislature's agenda in the past week ‘Mr. Cuomo’s budget officials have ar- ‘gued that high-income New Yorkers al- ready pay some of the nation’s highest taxes and that new taxes could lead many ofthem todecide toflee, shrinking, ‘an important part ofthe state's tax base. ‘Tourism, which generates $70 billion in yearly economic activity in New York City, has disappeared, as attractions like the amusement park in Coney Island have closed. Iczkovits tax free cars Est. 1926 (CH-8027 Zarich Altred Excher Str. 10 i i i i i renewable Tax Free & Paid registration on Swiss plates We also register cars with expired or foreign plates TAX FREE & TAX PAID - NEW & USED Expats services Homologation services International sales Diplomatic sales [email protected] The world's most trusted perspective. Get unlimited digital access to The New York Times. Save 50%. nytimes.com/globaloffer 8 | SATURDAY-SUNDAY, MAY 30-31, 2020 THE NEW YORK TIMES INTERNATIONAL EDITION SCIENCE LAB In Galaxy PKS 2014-55, a really big X factor Astronomers have figured out yet another great trick that monster black holes can play. In many galaxies, jets of en- ergy are squeezed outward by the black holes that lurk at their centers, and go shooting off in opposite directions into space. But in a few galaxies, the jets take the form of four beams in the shape of an X. New radio astronomy observa- tions have shown how that happens. Astronomers know how black holes so dense not even light can e: nous. The pressure in the swir black hole expels high-energy pe their gravity — can become of doom surrounding a particles from the top and bottom. But a galaxy known as PKS 2014-55, about 800 million light-years away, is different, with jet shaped like two boomerangs, above, placed back to back to form an X. Why? Maybe the central black hole was wobbling, like a lawn sprinkler aiming its jets to different spots, or maybe 0 lumi- two black holes were colliding. But new ob: gest that the jets’ dynamics resemble those seen in an elab- orate fountain, w in designer configurations. In this lion light-yea Si ith water going up and dow supethot gas is being pumped up s into space, then ca: and flowing mil- fades back and splashes sideways off the center of the galaxy, shaping an X in the cosmos, as if marking a treasure FOCUS ON THE PREY The deadly concentration eo of the hunting manti A praying mantis watches intently as a fly bobs by. In ess than a blink, she's ds snatched it up. When the tape is played back in slow motion, we see the mantis pause and calibrate, almost lke an experienced baseball catcher who has realized she's dealing with a knuckle e ball ‘Anew study uses this as evidence that mantises strike less like automa- tons and more like active hunters, calibrating their attacks to more ef ciently capture their prey asi flies by at varied speeds. Predatory animals are traditionally divided into two categories based on how they catch their meals. The first group, pursuit predators, run down prey They are the action heroes of the animal world, flashy and attention getting, like cheetahs The second group, sit-and-wait predators, skulk until the time is right and then strike In the past, such pre thought to act almost as windup toys. But the mantis research calls that view into question. cara GlarMo . “This unpredictable environment, and anxiety about the future, women think twice about s going to make having children.” Dr. Denise Jamieson, head of obstetrics and gynecology at Emory University, €n the falling number of births in th Like a rainbow, but with quite a few more calories This month, Samy Kamkar shared his latest creation on Twitter: chocolate that shimmers like a rainbow. Mr. Kamar is not a chocolatier: He's a founder of the internet security company Openpath, and gained early internet notoriety in 2008 for releasing a virus on the Myspace social network. He also has a3-D printer and a pen- chant for experimenting with his food. A few years ago, he saw an irides cent effect on black plastic at an event in Los Angeles, which provided the first taste of inspiration. T wondered what else I could do this on," he said. Mr. Kamkar first considered making the iridescent effect on hard candy, but United States, then decided that would be too easy, Chocolate, with its melty gooeyness, seemed like a bigger challenge. After ‘two months of playing around, Mr Kamkar created a repeatable tech fhique. DEVI Lockwoop NO INVASION HERE These large lizards have every reason to call islands home Monitor lizards feed on insects, spi ders, bird eggs, mollusks, crabs, fish, amphibians and rodents alive. Deer are a big part of the diets of the Komodo dragon, the largest monitor lizard species, which is native to east cern Indonesia. “They'll feed at garbage dead or piles and eat chicken bones. Whatev er's available,’ said Fred Kraus, an evolutionary biologist in Michigan. Monitor lizards have been found living on the most far-flung islands of Micronesia in the Pacific Ocean. For decades, people assumed humans dropped off these carnivores, turning them into threatening ecologi But a new study shows that the monitor lizards are previously unde- scribed species native to those is lands, MARION RENAULT al invad DECEIVING T She's a lot sneakier than she looks UNTERS The birth process of sea turtles pro- vides some of nature's most endearing Mother turtles, lke tl trudge up onto the beach at night, dig a nest and lay eggs, then return to the Weeks later, hatchlings arrive But we rarely see what happens immediately after the eggs are laid and before the turtle goes back to the sea ‘People find that stage boring, and they just don't understand it” said Malcolm Kennedy, a zoologist in Scot land. The turtles flap around, and that's But that flapping and scattering of sand fascinated Dr. Kennedy, who has released a study with the zoologist Tom Burns. They found the turtles are actually creating decoy nests to fool predators like mongooses and wild pigs and prevent them from sniffing out the real nests and eating their eggs. They spend a good deal of ener gy and time — roughly 30 minutes ‘on this endeavor, exposing themselves to dangers from predators and the hot, rising sun, DAVID WALDSTEIN ‘TRILOBITES ¥ Daily nuggets of science readers: nytimes.com tril ‘THE NEW YORK TIMES INTERNATIONAL EDITION SATURDAY-SUNDAY, MAY 30-31, 2020 | 9 Sports LONDON Teams plan to restart on June 17. Serie A also announces a return date. BY TARIQPANIA, ‘The English Premier League, the most- watched sports league in the world, plans to resume play on June 17 after a two-month hiatus caused by the coro- navirus pandemic, league officials an- nounced on Thursday. ‘The resumption of soccer in England follows Germany's Bundesliga, which began play last week. It adds momen- tum to a comeback of sports, with sev- eral North American leagues also mak- ing plans to find away back to the arena. Serie A, which has been suspended since March 10 in hard-hit Italy, an- nounced on Thursday that it would also return, on June 20, ‘The Premier League's return would come after weeks of uncertainty and dis agreement among teams over the possi bilities. Germany's successful return toaction earlier this month, with the league com- pleting two rounds of action without in- cident, helped build consensus among, executives of England's leading teams, who would face huge losses ifthe season. were called off ‘The agreement requires final clear- ance from the British authorities. In recent days, momentum had been building for the league to return to ac- tion after similar moves to complete the season without fans in a growing num- ber of leagues across Europe. English teams agreed this week to protocols for theresumption of full contact practice, necessary step before competing in games again. ‘The first games on the schedule will be Aston Villa hosting Sheffield United ber of smaller teams objected tothe pos- sibility of having to play remaining games at neutral sites. Some of the more high-profile games are almost certain to be played at secondary venues to help manage crowds. ‘Slowly, the league's various stake- holders coalesced around the need totry to restart, with the realities of not com- pleting the season becoming clearer. There would be a thicket of legal issues, ‘most notably related to deciding which three teams would be relegated to the second tier, a demotion worth tens of millions of pounds. and Arsenal's visit to Manchester ‘A punishing rebate would also be Those games were postponed e ‘owed to domestic and global broadeast- the season because of aclash in thecal- ers that pay more for the Premier endar. ‘League than for any other national soc- Several setbacks had suggested that cer championship. the Premier League might not find a so- lution to completing the season. Some players raised doubts about returning to action during the pandemic, and a num- ‘The Premier League's restart plans have received regular support from the British government, with senior law- makers regularly talking up the possi- Premier League to resume play ‘The Premier League's return adds momentum to the comeback of major sports leagues in Europe and North America. bility of games’ being playedif strict hy- iene regulations are met. The league has recently conducted three rounds of tests on players and staff members, with 12 positive results out of 2,752 tests administered. The tests are required otake place twice weekly, with anyone who tests positive told to self isolate for seven days before being cleared to return. Early indications from Germany sug- est that soccer, even devoid of jersey- clad fans, is as big a draw as ever, achieving record numbers on television for the first slate of games. ‘The appetite in England is likely to be just as high with Liverpool, which led the league by 25 points, two victories away from ending a ttle drought of 30 years and the competition for the quali fying positions. for the Champions positions on a points-per-game ratio, ‘which would be similar toa decision tak- en by the French league, which sur- prised many this month when it called off its season after a declaration from the French prime minister that games could not be played there until Septem- ber. Even if it completes the season, the Premier League, which in many ways is a financial driver for the European soc- cer industry more broadly, stands to Jose around 500 million pounds, or over $615 million, through lost stadium reve- ‘hues, additional costs associated with the new measures and millions that broadcasters are demanding to be re- paid because of the interruption to the season. English clubs, by far the biggest buy- ers in the soccer global player trading League fierce with 10 games to go. ‘Should there be a setback, the league would most likely have to decide final ‘market, will not be in a position to main- tain spending that pushed it beyond $7 billion worldwide last year. Women's soccer to play 1-month, 25-game season BY ANDREW DAS ‘AND ANDREW KEH, ‘The National Women's Soccer League has laid out an ambitious, and poten- tially risky, plan to return tothe field late ‘ext month for its first games of a sea- ‘son that was supposed to start in April but ended up stalled by the coronavirus pandemic. Under the schedule that league offi- ials outlined on Wednesday, the nine N.WS.L. teams are to gather in Utah in late June and complete their entire sea- ‘son as a 25-game tournament over 30 days. “The proposed event, to be called the N.WSL. Challenge Cup, will be an ‘Olympic-style tournament with a group- play stage and then an eight-team ‘knockout tournament. The games — the first is set for June 27 — will be the league's first competition since last Oc- tober's championship game and will ‘succeed only through a mix of careful planning, extensive virus testing, strict health protocols and no small amount of ‘200d fortune. ‘And all of it depends on the players’ willingness to participate, the absence ‘of new outbreaks and hundreds of tests before and after the games arrive in Utah. “Each player will have her own deci- sion to make,” Lisa Baird, the NWS.L's ‘new commissioner, said on a conference call. “We will not’ require anybody to play in the tournament” Whether a player decides to partici- ‘pate or not, she will receive her full sala- ry, as well as her medical and housing benefits for the 2020 season, Yael Aver- buch, the executive director of the N.WSLL. Players Association, said in a telephone interview. Allofthe matches will be playedinthe Salt Lake City suburbs of Herriman and ‘Sandy, the home of one of the league's teams, Utah Royals EC. ‘Under the format the N.WS.L. has proposed, each team is to play four ‘games at the 5,000-seat Zions Bank Sta- dium in Herriman to determine seed- ings for an eight-team knockout round. ‘The semifinals and final (set for July 26) are to be played at the larger Rio Tinto ‘Stadium in Sandy, the home of the Roy- ‘No fans will be allowed to attend the ‘games. CBS will broadcast the tourna- ‘ment opener and the final, and the other ‘games will be shown live on the CBS All ‘Access streaming platform. Dell Loy Hansen, the Utah Royals ‘owner, and his organization will be the de facto hosts. Hansen, who also owns Real Salt Lake, a Major League Soccer team, and the two Utah stadiums, will use his team’s expansive training com- plex to accommodate the teams’ train- ing and competition needs. ‘The N.WS.L, which had considered proposals from three other potential host cities, plans a partnership with two ‘area hotels to house all nine teams and their staffs in what the league is calling the N.WS.L. Village — a quasi-quaran- tine effort that aims to reduce the risk of ‘coronavirus infection for all involved. “We want them to stay in the envi- ronment, but we want the environment not to fee! like a restriction” Baird said. ‘Hansen, who also spokeon the confer- cence call, estimated that the village set- up would include about 300 players and +300 administrative staff members. Players will not be joined by their families, but those with children will be allowed to bring them, and any neces- sary caregivers. ‘The hotels willhave spaces for leisure ‘and recreational time, and hotel officials will be on hand to accommodate non- soccer requests — whatever ittakes, ba- sically, to keep the players on site. “We just kind of opened the check- book and said, ‘Get whatever they ‘need; Hansen Said. Details are not final. As recently as ‘Tuesday, league officials and the associ- ations representing the league's rank- ‘and-file players and the members of the United States women's national team ‘were stil negotiating testing and isol tion protocols, best practices to avoid ‘contracting or spreading the virus, and off-the-field guarantees for the teams and their players, both during pretour- rhament camps in their home cities and at the Utah event itself. Rosters will be completed by June 21, which is the first day teams will be al- lowed to arrive in Utah, Baird said the league was working to secure visas for its international players amid new ‘global travel restrictions, NON SeQuITUR i CALLED Sixt#-Tuo) Foor-FAucrs, But T Stu Last PROBABIN SOMETHNG TDIONT EAT IM PRETTY SURE LHAD THE VIRUS LAST JANUARY WHEN T HAD A, THROAT TICKLE, WONDER WHY VIRUS. ‘TEST KITS EXIST WHEN WE CAN JUST ASK. PEOPLE IF THEY HAD IT. 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Its pow- ‘ered entirely by solar energy, with grid backup. ‘The estate, named Rancho Chilamate for a chilamate tree growing on the ‘grounds, is anchored by a3,800-square- foot, four-bedroom main house. An adj pss sn Sa ss 2 Om dae ae he sun Equestrian estate Buit in 2009 with local materials, the colonia-style prop- erty includes nine bedrooms and stables for up to 18 horses. Three ofthe bedrooms open out to the pool terrace, Below, through French doors. cent house has a garage and two staff bedrooms, and a stand-alone casita has ‘one bedroom. Two additional staff bed- Fooms are near the stables. “If you love horses, it's absolutely fantasti," said Robert Cooper, a direc- tor of 7th Heaven Properties, a luxury agency specializing in the Caribbean ‘and Central America, which has thellist- ing. “I's not toofar from the beach, and it has that quintessential Nicaraguan feel” “Particularly nowy he said, “I can certainly think of worse places to be selfisolating.” adding that the price ‘was recently reduced to $650,000 from $729,000. Heather van Doomninck, the seller, said she wanted to honor Nicaragua's architectural heritage when she built the estate. “All the cement is by hand,” inthe forest with achain saw. Nothingis milled here. I's authentically grounded and gorgeous.” ‘Ms. van Doorninck has rented rooms for $200 anight andled guests on horse- back tours tothe beach or through ariv- erside jungle inhabited by howler mon- keys. “The cacophony of jungle noises here is amazing,” she said, ‘A long driveway leads to a parking area and a white security wall sur- rounding much of the property ‘Through the gate are a stone courtyard with a barbecue and an outdoor dining area. Two faded blue antique doors ‘open into the home's great room, with 20-foot vaulted ceilings and tropical hhardwood beams. The space includes a dining table for 10, a TV area and the kitchen. Past the kitchen, saloon doors lead to she said. very single rock here is cut ‘NICARAGUA, PAGE 11 Rethinking design, with pandemics in mind BY TIM MCKEOUGH ‘The coronavirus pandemic has placed any number of demands on our homes, which now serve as makeshift offices, art studios, gyms, workshops, class- rooms and Storage lockers. And urban ‘apartments, where all of those functions are often squeezed into a space-con- strained envelope, face the biggest chal- lenges of all. ‘Those of us quarantined in acity have devised ad hoc solutions to cope in the short term. But if history is any guide, the experi- ence should have lasting implications for the future of apartment design long after the lockdowns end. More than acentury ago, diseases like tuberculosis and the 1918 influenza “had fan enormous impact on architecture, with the creation of sanitariums that were very open and were all about the balcony, light and air” said Paul Whalen, a partner at Robert A.M. Stern Archi: tects. “Whether it was subconscious or not, that kind of architecture had a big influence on residential architecture throughout the whole 20th century.” We asked architects whose firms have helped shape New York in recent years how apartment design may evolve in the years ahead. MORE FLEXIBLE SPACES Working from home with the help of dig ital tools was a trend long before the pandemic hit. Now that its widely ac- cepted as a productive way to work, itis ‘most likely here to stay in a significant way, even after offices reopen. As a re- sult, some architects believe residential design will take cues from recent devel- ‘opments in office and college-campus design, “The home is still one of those places where you find single-purpose spaces, and that, surely is going to change” said ‘Maitland Jones, a partner at Deborah Berke Partners in New York. “One thing ‘we see on college campuses is that no ‘one builds single-purpose spaces any- ‘more. Boundaries between where one stud- ies, where one socializes, where one eats, where one sleeps are diminishing” When thoughtfully designed, rooms {in an apartment can also serve multiple functions. “Ifthe dining room is not going tobea casualty of the pandemic, but rather a beneficiary” Mr. Jones said, “it has todo quick shifis from dining mode to work ‘made to probably a third mode,’ serving as a bedroom, say, or a media room, Room sizes could also change to cre- ‘ate more flexibility “The open office has become a rule in somany different industries, and yet we need lots of litte tiny spaces where one ‘can either make a private call or have a very small videoconference,” Mr. Jones said. “Homes could easily be like that.” When the firm CetraRuddy was de- signing Rose Hill, a new condominium at 30 East 29th Street in Manhattan, the architects were thinking along similar lines and included a “flex-space” in nu- ‘merous apartments: a windowless al- covesmaller than a bedroom that can be closed off with sliding glass doors. “It's a space where you can set up a home office, a library” or a learning space for children, said John Cetra, one of the firms founding principals. “It ‘wasn't like we were planning for a pan- demic, but it is something that people living in the city I think, will really come to appreciate.” ACCESS TO THE OUTDOORS: ‘After spending so much time indoors, having access to fresh air and nature at home is likely to become a priority. “The one thing I find most people re- ally complaining about is this feeling of being confined in a spacey’ said Morris Adjmi, an architect based in New York. One way to provide a closer connec- tion to nature, he said, may be with larger courtyard gardens, like the 25,000-square-foot green space he planned with Michael Van Valkenburgh Associates at Front & York, a new apart- ‘ment complex in Brooklyn. Oritcould be accomplished with more balconies and terraces, like the ones Ce- traRuddy designed at 200 East 59th ‘Street in Manhattan, a 35-story tower ‘wrapped by terraces on every level to provide each apartment with outdoor space. Mr. Whalen offered another idea: “In a tight city, where every square foot is ‘expensive to build, it can also be done with, say, French doors ina living room” and a Juliet balcony, he said, “In a way, the whole living room, or whole dining room, could sort of feel like an outside loggia. ‘The simplest solution, however, could be a return to large, operable windows and designs for cross ventilation to en- ‘courage breezes, which apartments in ‘newer buildings sometimes lack. Facades on glass buildings could open wider to the outdoors, said Angelica ‘Trevino Bacon, a partner at SHOP Ar- chitects like those her firm designed for Uber's new headquarters in San Fran cisco, where large glass panels open like bifold doors. “Fresh air is just so important for DESIGN, PAGE! Back to nature Leta rendering of ‘anew apartment ‘complex in Brook ‘yn, which shows. ‘units wrapping ‘around 2 25,000- ‘square-foot court yard garden,

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