International Futures: Building and Using Global Models PDF
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INTERNATIONAL FUTURES INTERNATIONAL FUTURES Building and Using Global Models B B. H ARRY UGHES AcademicPressisanimprintofElsevier 125LondonWall,LondonEC2Y5AS,UnitedKingdom 525BStreet,Suite1650,SanDiego,CA92101,UnitedStates 50HampshireStreet,5thFloor,Cambridge,MA02139,UnitedStates TheBoulevard,LangfordLane,Kidlington,OxfordOX51GB,UnitedKingdom Copyright#2019BarryHughes.PublishedbyElsevierLtd.Allrightsreserved. Nopartofthispublicationmaybereproducedortransmittedinanyformorbyanymeans,electronicormechanical, includingphotocopying,recording,oranyinformationstorageandretrievalsystem,withoutpermissionin writingfromthepublisher.Detailsonhowtoseekpermission,furtherinformationaboutthePublisher’s permissionspoliciesandourarrangementswithorganizationssuchastheCopyrightClearanceCenterandthe CopyrightLicensingAgency,canbefoundatourwebsite:www.elsevier.com/permissions. ThisbookandtheindividualcontributionscontainedinitareprotectedundercopyrightbytheAuthor(otherthanas maybenotedherein). Notices Knowledgeandbestpracticeinthisfieldareconstantlychanging.Asnewresearchandexperiencebroadenour understanding,changesinresearchmethods,professionalpractices,ormedicaltreatmentmaybecomenecessary. Practitionersandresearchersmustalwaysrelyontheirownexperienceandknowledgeinevaluatingandusingany information,methods,compounds,orexperimentsdescribedherein.Inusingsuchinformationormethodsthey shouldbemindfuloftheirownsafetyandthesafetyofothers,includingpartiesforwhomtheyhaveaprofessional responsibility. Tothefullestextentofthelaw,neitherthePublishernortheauthors,contributors,oreditors,assumeanyliabilityfor anyinjuryand/ordamagetopersonsorpropertyasamatterofproductsliability,negligenceorotherwise,or fromanyuseoroperationofanymethods,products,instructions,orideascontainedinthematerialherein. LibraryofCongressCataloging-in-PublicationData AcatalogrecordforthisbookisavailablefromtheLibraryofCongress BritishLibraryCataloguing-in-PublicationData AcataloguerecordforthisbookisavailablefromtheBritishLibrary ISBN978-0-12-804271-7 ForinformationonallAcademicPresspublicationsvisitour websiteathttps://www.elsevier.com/books-and-journals Publisher:CandiceJanco AcquisitionEditor:GlynJones EditorialProjectManager:GabrielaD.Capille ProductionProjectManager:DebasishGhosh CoverDesigner:MatthewLimbert TypesetbySPiGlobal,India Prologue It is now half a century since the emer- aware, however, of the dangers of oversell- genceofthefirstcomputermodelsforthink- ing our ability to understand global change ing about possible long-term global futures and to contribute with confidence to policy andforconsideringhowwemight,inatleast discussions. Further, while very concerned some small way, make those futures better. about the large and growing pressure that Thisvolumesurveysandreportsonthefield humans place on the environment, I was of global modeling, including early world not convinced of the seeming inevitability models and more recent integrated assess- of global collapse produced by almost all ment models. In the process of that review, model runs of World3 by the MIT group, consideringstrengths,weaknesses,andpos- asreportedintheirbookTheLimitstoGrowth, siblefuturedirections,thebookgivesspecial popularized by the Club of Rome. attention to a modeling project that I have Attheendofthe1970sIembarkedonthe led,namelythataroundtheInternationalFu- projectofcreatinganewworldmodelcalled tures(IFs)system.Atleastsomepartsofthe International Futures. My goal was an edu- volumeshouldbeofinteresttoawiderange cational tool, especially for university stu- of those thinking seriously about global dents, but also for helping policy analysts change:studentsandscholars,policyanalysts think about the future. The acronym IFs in- (andideallydecisionmakers),concernedciti- tentionally conveys both the uncertainty of zens,and,ofcourse,globalmodelers. our understanding of possible futures and I have had the great privilegeof studying the reality that any story or scenario about anddevelopingsuchmodelsoverthatentire thefuturefromamodelisessentiallyacom- half-century period.Myfirstexposuretothe plex if-then statement—we humans are cre- audacious idea of building long-term ating the future by our choices, whether or multiissue global computer simulations be- notwe can fully understand theirimpact. ganin1972atCaseWesternReserveUniver- Atthesametime,anentirelynew stream sity.TheworkunderwayatMITonamodel ofglobalmodelingwasemerging.Itwastied calledWorld3(buildingonWorld1,arguably in part to the energy shocks of the global thefirstsuchglobalmodel)inspiredagroup economy in the 1970s, but quickly directed ofusatCaseWesternReserveunderthelead- a large portion of its attention to climate ership of Mihajlo (Mike) Mesarovic to build change.Underitsumbrellalabelofintegrated the World Integrated Model (WIM), adding assessmentmodels(IAMs),theassortedpro- regional and model detail to World3’s fairly jects also focused on other human impacts simplerepresentationoftheworldasawhole. upon biophysical systems including land Several other teams developed world use,biodiversityloss,airpollution,andwater models,astheywerethencalled,inthatfirst systemstress.Althoughmotivatedbypolicy- decade,and it was a heady period forthose related issues and initiatives, not least the ofusinvolvedintheeffort.Iwasverymuch work of the Intergovernmental Panel on vii viii PROLOGUE Climate Change, the IAM projects retained have been possible without the generous closeconnectionstothescientificworld. supportofFrederickPardee. While IFs grew from the early world Many more from the IFs and broader modeling tradition, it is very much now an global modeling communities have given IAM as well, based at the University of helpinthepreparationofthisvolume.Steve Denver’s Frederick S. Pardee Center for In- Hedden, Brian O’Neill, Dale Rothman, ternational Futures since the Center’s estab- DominiquevanderMensbrugghe,andHeleen lishment in 2009. Given the background of van Soest provided feedback on the broad IFs, however, it has more focus than other manuscript during at least one stage of its IAMsonissuesofhumandevelopmentsuch evolution. Theodore (Ted) Gordon, Ha˚vard aspovertyandhungerreduction,advanceof Hegre, Mohammod Irfan, Peter Johnston, education,andimprovementofhealth.That Samir KC, Elmar Kriegler, Randall Kuhn, has positioned it well for a new era marked PaulLucas,WolfgangLutz,PatrickMcCully, bytheenunciationoftheSustainableDevel- Adrian Pop, Paul Raskin, Mark Rosegrant, (cid:1) opment Goals (and before that the Millen- Jose Solorzano, and Jin Zhouying reacted nium Development Goals) and the related veryusefullytosomeportionsofit.Elizabeth globalefforttoimprovethehumancondition Bremer led graphic production, while David in an environmentally sustainableworld. Bohl and Alanna Markle provided support. As this historical survey of the develop- Kanishka Narayan managed data updates ment of IFs and global modeling indicates, steadily throughout. Most especially, Janet IFs development and this volume owe very Dickson, my wife and professional col- muchtofarmorepeoplethanIcanpossibly league, knows this volume as well as I do acknowledgeandthank.Myapologiestoso and contributed in a wide variety of ways. very, very many who have supported the Of tremendous importance was a constant effort over time and are not named. Among flowofideasforimprovement,rangingfrom those I must mention are earlier co-authors overall structure to specific conceptualiza- and long-time friends, Evan Hillebrand, tions and to clarity and details of presenta- JakkieCilliers,andRichardChadwick.Also, tion. She combined all that with consistently Jonathan Moyer, current director of the positive and strong support in an enterprise PardeeCenter,continuesstronglytosupport that often seemed almost hopelessly ambi- making IFs a living and evolving tool for tious. Further, she undertook bibliographic anyone wishing to add to its development support, digging deeply into wide-ranging or use. Institutionally, the University of literatures; did the most careful of reading DenverandtheJosefKorbelSchoolofInter- and editing; and provided reactions to my nationalStudieshavebeenwonderfulprofes- writing when it went astray. If you do find sional homes for IFs and for me. Most the volume helpful to you in any way, these especially, the ongoing development of IFs people, and especially Janet, deserve your at the university’s Pardee Center would not thanksaswellasmine. Glossary I: Model Acronyms and Abbreviations AGE applied general equilibrium model AIM Asia-Pacific Integrated Model AOGCMs atmosphere-ocean general circulationmodels CGE computable general equilibrium model CROPWAT Crop water and irrigationrequirements tool; no elaborated name DICE DynamicIntegrated modelof Climate and theEconomy DNE21 DynamicNew Earth 21 DSSAT DecisionSupport System for Agrotechnology Transfer ENV-Growth Environment and economic growth model; no elaborated name ENVISAGE Environmental Impact and Sustainability Applied General Equilibrium model ENV-Linkages Adynamic generalequilibrium model; no elaborated name EPIC EnvironmentalPolicy Integrated Climate model ESMs earth system models EUGene ExpectedUtility Generation andData Management Program FAIR Finite Amplitude ImpulseResponse model(six linked modules) FeliX FunctionalEnviro-economic LinkagesIntegrated neXus FUGI Future of GlobalInterdependence FUND Climate Framework for Uncertainty,Negotiation,and Distribution G4M GlobalForest Model GAEZ GlobalAgro-Ecological Zones system GAINS Greenhouse gas—Airpollution Interactions andSynergies GCAM GlobalChange Assessment Model GCMs global climatemodels GEM GlobalEconomic Model GEM-E3 GeneralEquilibrium Modelfor Economy-Energy-Environment GINFORS GlobalInterindustry FORecasting System GISMO GlobalIntegrated Sustainability MOdel GLOBIO GlobalBiodiversity model GLOBIO-Aquatic Extension of GLOBIO; human impactson freshwater biodiversity GLOBIOM GlobalBiosphereManagement Model GLOBUS World model;no elaborated name GLOFRIS GlobalFlood Risk with IMAGE Scenarios H08 Globalhydrology model; noelaborated name ix x GLOSSARYI:MODELACRONYMSANDABBREVIATIONS IAMs integrated assessmentmodels IFs InternationalFuturesmodelsystem IGSM Integrated GlobalSystem Model IMACLIM Simplified climate model/no elaborated name found IMAGE Integrated Modelto Assess the GlobalEnvironment IMPACT InternationalModelforPolicyAnalysisofAgriculturalCommoditiesand Trade iPETs integrated Population-Economy-Technology-Science system LEITAP Landbouw Economisch Instituut Trade Analysis Project LINKAGE Generalequilibrium model;no elaborated name LPJmL Lund-Potsdam Jena managed Land model MACRO Generaleconomic model; no elaborated name found MaGE Macroeconometrics ofthe GlobalEconomy MAGICC Modelfor theAssessment of Greenhouse-gas Induced Climate Change MAGNET Modular AppliedGeNeralEquilibriumTool MAgPIE Modelof Agricultural Production and its Impacton the Environment MAMS Maquette for MDG Simulations MERGE-ETL ModelforEvaluatingRegionalandGlobalEffectsofgreenhousegasreduc- tion policies MESSAGE ModelforEnergySupplyStrategyAlternativesandtheirGeneralEnviron- mentalImpact MOIRA Modelof International Relations inAgriculture PAGE PolicyAnalysis of theGreenhouse Effect PCR-GLOBWB PCRaster GLOBal Water Balance model PHOENIX Population and health model; no elaborated name POLES ProspectiveOutlook onLong-term Energy Systems PoleStar World model; noelaborated name REMIND Regional ModelofInvestments and Development RICE Regional Integrated modelof Climate and the Economy SARUM SystemsAnalysis ResearchUnit Model SIMLINK Developing world trade andgrowth model; noelaborated name SIMPEST Simulating Political, Economic, and Strategic Interactions Among Major Powers T21 Threshold 21 TARGETS Tool to Assess Regional and Global Environmental and health Targets for Sustainability TIAM TIMES Integrated Assessment Model TIMER TargetsIMage EnergyRegional model USLE Universal SoilLoss Equation WaterGAP Water—Global Analysis andPrognosis model WEFM World Economy Forecasting Model WEM World Energy Model WIM World Integrated Model WITCH World Induced Technical Change Hybrid model World3 World model; noelaborated name WorldScan World model; noelaborated name Glossary II: Modeling-Related Concepts, Tools, and Databases AQUASTAT Food andAgriculture Organization’s global water informationsystem BBOE billion barrels of oil equivalent CBR crude birth rate CDR crude death rate COPDAB Conflictand PeaceData Bank DALYs disability-adjusted life years DataGator Pardee Center data analysistool EDGAR Emissions Database for GlobalAtmosphericResearch EJ exajoules FAOSTAT Food andAgriculture Organization database FBIC formal bilateralinfluence capacity index GAMS GeneralAlgebraicModeling System GEMPACK GeneralEquilibrium Modeling PACKage GPI global power index GUI graphicaluser interface HDI Human DevelopmentIndex ISCED International StandardClassificationof Education KEDS Kansas Event Data System LES linear expenditure system MFP multifactor productivity MID Militarized Interstate Disputes dataset PAFs population attributablefractions PIDcontroller equilibrium system controller (Proportionalto Integral and Derivative) Ppm parts per million RR relative risk SAM social accounting matrix SCC social costs ofcarbondioxideemissions SNA System ofNationalAccounts TFP total factor productivity xi xii GLOSSARYII:MODELING-RELATEDCONCEPTS,TOOLS,ANDDATABASES TFR total fertility rate VVA verification, validation, andaccreditation WDI WorldDevelopment Indicators YLDs years of living with a disability YLLs years of life lost
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