International Crisis and Conflict

292 Pages·1993·15.687 MB·English

by  Richard Clutterbuck

International Crisis and
Conflict
Richard Clutterbuck
INTERNATIONAL CRISIS AND CONFLICT
Also by Richard Clutterbuck
ACROSS THE RIVER {as Richard Jocelyn)
BRITAIN IN AGONY
CONFLICT AND VIOLENCE IN SINGAPORE AND
MALAYSIA
THE FUTURE OF POLITICAL VIOLENCE {editor)
GUERRILLAS AND TERRORISTS
INDUSTRIAL CONFLICT AND DEMOCRACY
KIDNAP AND RANSOM
KIDNAP, HIJACK AND EXTORTION
LIVING WITH TERRORISM
THE LONG, LONG WAR
THE MEDIA AND POLITICAL VIOLENCE
PROTEST AND THE URBAN GUERRILLA
RIOT AND REVOLUTION IN SINGAPORE AND MALAYA
TERRORISM AND GUERRILLA WARFARE
TERRORISM, DRUGS AND CRIME IN EUROPE AFTER 1992
International Crisis
and Conflict
Richard Clutterbuck
Security and Political Risk Consultant
and Honorary Research Fellow
University of Exeter
flfl
t Richard Clutterbuck 1993
All rights reserved. No reproduction, copy or transmission of
this publication may be made without written permission.
No paragraph of this publication may be reproduced, copied or
transmitted save with written permission or in accordance with
the provisions of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988,
or under the terms of any licence permitting limited copying
issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency, 90 Tottenham Court
Road. London W1P9HE.
Any person who does any unauthorised act in relation to this
publication may be liable to criminal prosecution and civil
claims for damages.
First published in Great Britain 1993 by
THE MACM1LLAN PRESS LTD
Houndmills. Basingstoke. Hampshire RC21 2XS
and London
Companies and representatives
throughout the world
A catalogue record for this book is available
from the British Library.
ISBN 0-333-59192-5 hardcover
ISBN 0-333-59193-3 paperback
Printed in Great Britain by
Ipswich Book Co Ltd
Ipswich, Suffolk
First published in the United States of America 1993 by
Scholarly and Reference Division,
ST. MARTIN'S PRESS, INC..
175 Fifth Avenue.
New York. N.Y. 10010
ISBN 0-312-10188-0 (cloth)
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Clutterbuck, Richard L.
International crisis and conflict / Richard Clutterbuck.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 0-312-10188-0 (cloth)
1. World politics—20th century. 2. World politics. 3. Crisis
management. I. Title.
D445TC89 1993
909.53 2—d c20 93-4375
CIP
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2
04 03 02 01 00 99 98 97 96
Contents
List of Tables ix
List of Maps x
Preface xi
List of Abbreviations xiii
PART I INTRODUCTION
1 International Power and Crisis Management 3
The lunacy of war 3
The power and motivation of national leaders 4
The foundations of international power 5
Ideology, religion and power 6
Crisis management 7
PART H POWER IN HISTORY
2 Historical Roots of International Conflict 13
Civilization and human conflict 13
Cities, states and empires 15
The growth of European power 17
Industrialization 18
Imperialism and nationalism 19
Revolution, socialism and democracy 20
3 The Balance of Power 25
The Congress of Vienna 25
The revolutions of 1848 28
Four more French revolutions 30
Cavour, Bismarck and Napoleon III 31
The Franco-Prussian War 36
The Balance of Power 40
Achievements of the Congress of Vienna: 1815-1914 41
v
VI Contents
4 The Outbreak of the First World War 43
An explosive mixture 43
The Kaiser and the German Navy 45
Sarajevo 46
Mobilization timetables 52
The people who started the war 56
5 The Rise of Hitler 61
Wilson's Fourteen Points and the Treaty of Versailles 61
The failure of the League of Nations 62
Versailles as the creator of Hitler 64
Germany, Italy and Japan 69
Hitler's war 70
Whose fault? 75
PART III CRISIS AND CONFLICT UNDER THE
NUCLEAR UMBRELLA
6 The Cold War 79
The birth of the nuclear era and the Cold War 79
Stalin and the peak of the Cold War: 1948-53 81
The Khrushchev era: 1953-64 87
Brezhnev and the arrival of Gorbachev: 1964—85 93
7 Czechoslovakia and Berlin 1948 101
The Communist coup in Czechoslovakia 101
The Berlin blockade 102
8 Cuba 1962 106
Khrushchev's gamble 106
Anatomy of the crisis 107
Crisis management 111
9 The First Arab-Israeli Wars 1948-67 115
The foundation of Israel 115
The Suez War of 1956 118
The Six Day War of 1967 119
Assessment 122
Contents VII
10 The Arab-Israeli War of 1973 125
Sadat's Initiative for Peace 125
Sadat prepares for war 127
Israeli intelligence 129
Attack and counter-attack 130
Cease-fire and disengagement 132
Assessment 133
11 The Vietnam War 135
The Mao Zedong pattern 135
US military advisers 136
The deployment of US combat troops 137
Victory and misery in Vietnam 139
12 Bangladesh, Cyprus and the Falkland Islands 141
Bangladesh 1971 144
Cyprus 1974 145
The Falkland Islands 1982 149
PART IV AFTER THE COLD WAR
13 The European Revolutions of 1989—92 159
Mikhail Gorbachev 159
People power 161
Poland 164
Hungary 165
East Germany 166
Czechoslovakia 168
Romania 170
Bulgaria and Albania 171
Yugoslavia 172
The disintegration of the USSR 172
The revolutions in retrospect 176
14 The Gulf Crisis 1990-91 181
Warnings of attack 181
Invasion and crisis: August 1990--January 1991 185
Th e war 187
The aftermath of war 190
Conclusions 193
Vlll Contents
PART V TODAY AND TOMORROW
15 Patterns of Future Conflict 197
The Balkanization of Eastern Europe 197
Western Europe 206
Religion, conflict and war 209
Islamic fundamentalism 211
Other ongoing conflicts 213
Civil war and insurgency 214
Terrorism 216
Regional wars 219
Nuclear weapons 219
China 220
16 Keeping the Peace 222
Pax Americana? 222
Peacemaking and peacekeeping 223
Cambodia 225
Somalia 229
Liberia 232
Commonwealth of Independent States 234
Bosnia 234
The future of peacemaking and peacekeeping 288
A new role for NATO 240
17 Crisis Management 243
Assessment of the crisis managers 243
Crisis management in years to come 246
Notes and References 249
Bibliography 265
Index n/'
List of Tables
3.1 Outline chronology, 1814-1914 26
4.1 Outbreak of the First World War, 1914 48
5.1 The rise of Hitler, 1918-39 65
6.1 Cold War chronology: Stalin 1945-53 82
6.2 Cold War chronology: Khrushchev 1953-64 88
6.3 Cold War chronology: Brezhnev and after 1964—85 94
9.1 The Arab-Israeli Conflict 1948-67 119
10.1 The Arab -Israeli War of 1973 126
10.2 Losses in the war of 1973 133
13.1 Disintegration of the Warsaw Pact and the USSR 162
15.1 Contemporary armed conflicts, September 1992 198
15.2 Ethnic and religious minorities in former Soviet
republics and East Europe 199
15.3 Minorities in the Russian Federation 200
15.4 Yugoslav refugees 205
15.5 Refugees to Western Europe, 1988 and 1991 208
16.1 UN peacekeeping operations 1992 225
IX