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Springer Proceedings in Mathematics & Statistics Volume 118 Moreinformationaboutthisseriesathttp://www.springer.com/series/10533 Springer Proceedings in Mathematics & Statistics Thisbookseriesfeaturesvolumescomposedofselectcontributionsfromworkshops and conferences in all areas of current research in mathematics and statistics, in- cluding operation research and optimization. In addition to an overall evaluation of the interest, scientific quality, and timeliness of each proposal at the hands of thepublisher,individualcontributionsareallrefereedtothehighqualitystandards of leading journals in the field. Thus, this series provides the research community withwell-edited,authoritativereportsondevelopmentsinthemostexcitingareasof mathematicalandstatisticalresearchtoday. Adriano Polpo • Francisco Louzada Laura L. R. Rifo • Julio M. Stern Marcelo Lauretto Editors Interdisciplinary Bayesian Statistics EBEB 2014 2123 Editors AdrianoPolpo JulioM.Stern FederalUniversityofSaoCarlos Dept.ofAppliedMathematics SaoCarlos UniversityofSaoPauloInstituteofMathematics Brazil andStatistics SaoPaulo,SãoPaulo FranciscoLouzada Brazil UniversityofSaoPaulo SaoCarlos MarceloLauretto Brazil SchoolofArts,SciencesandHumanities UniversityofSaoPaulo LauraL.R.Rifo SaoPaulo,SãoPaulo CampinasStateUniversity Brazil Campinas Brazil ISSN2194-1009 ISSN2194-1017(electronic) SpringerProceedingsinMathematics&Statistics ISBN978-3-319-12453-7 ISBN978-3-319-12454-4(eBook) DOI10.1007/978-3-319-12454-4 SpringerChamHeidelbergNewYorkDordrechtLondon LibraryofCongressControlNumber:2014956382 © SpringerInternationalPublishingSwitzerland2015 Thisworkissubjecttocopyright.AllrightsarereservedbythePublisher,whetherthewholeorpartofthe materialisconcerned,specificallytherightsoftranslation,reprinting,reuseofillustrations,recitation, broadcasting,reproductiononmicrofilmsorinanyotherphysicalway,andtransmissionorinformation storageandretrieval,electronicadaptation,computersoftware,orbysimilarordissimilarmethodology nowknownorhereafterdeveloped. Theuseofgeneraldescriptivenames,registerednames,trademarks,servicemarks,etc.inthispublication doesnotimply,evenintheabsenceofaspecificstatement,thatsuchnamesareexemptfromtherelevant protectivelawsandregulationsandthereforefreeforgeneraluse. Thepublisher,theauthorsandtheeditorsaresafetoassumethattheadviceandinformationinthisbook arebelievedtobetrueandaccurateatthedateofpublication.Neitherthepublishernortheauthorsorthe editorsgiveawarranty,expressorimplied,withrespecttothematerialcontainedhereinorforanyerrors oromissionsthatmayhavebeenmade. Printedonacid-freepaper SpringerispartofSpringerScience+BusinessMedia(www.springer.com) Foreword ItisagreatpleasuretoprefaceEBEB2014, theproceedingsofthe12thBrazilian MeetingonBayesianStatistics,whichwasattendedbytheever-growingcommunity ofBrazilianresearchersinBayesianStatisticsandbycolleaguesandcollaborators fromaroundtheworld. From March 10th to 14th at a beautiful resort in Atibaia, EBEB hosted fine presentationsinlecture(33)andposter(39)formatsofresearchersfrominstitutions inBelgium, Canada, Chile, Finland, India, Italy, Peru, SaudiArabia, Switzerland, UK,USA,andBrazil.Thetraditionofmeetingparticipantsservingasrefereesforthe selectionofpaperssubmittedtobeincludedinthisbookwasmaintained.Thiswasnot aneasytask,asthequalityofsubmissionwasveryhigh.TheEBEB2014organizers madesurethatgraduatestudentshadfinancialsupportforactiveengagementinthe meeting activities; presenting their research and interacting with researchers from otherinstitutions.Thissupportisalwaysasoundinvestmentforthedevelopmentof BayesianStatistics. High-qualitypublicationsofproceedings,asofEBEB2012byAIP(TheAmerican InstituteofPhysics)andofEBEB2014bySpringer,motivateresearchersandenrich the EBEBs. Editing such proceedings is a tradition inspired by the Valencia and MaxEntseries, arguablytwoofthemostinfluentialandlong-standingmeetingsin BayesianStatistics.Thisrequiresalotoftime,greateffort,andalsoknowledgeand experience. Another tradition of the Brazilian Bayesian community is to invite illustrious professorswhodiscussourresearchandsuggestnewdirectionstoexplore.Firstand foremostamongthosewereDevBasuandDennisLindley,asIwillcommentinthe sequel.WelookforwardtomaintainingthattraditionatthenextEBEBs.Wealsosee asapositivesignofmaturity,theincreasingnumberofinternationalresearchersthat spontaneouslyattendEBEB,asoneexpectsfromprestigiousinternationalmeetings inwell-developedareasofscientificresearch.Thistrendisadirectconsequenceof theexistenceofhigh-qualityproceedings,andvice-versa,exactlyasitisinMaxEnt andusedtobeinValencia. TheincreasingpresenceatEBEBofseveralemergentcentersofresearchinBrazil spreadsourBayesianactivitiesoutsidetheRioandSãoPauloaxis. Someofthese emerging centers are strongly inserted and well connected internationally, but are v vi Foreword also becoming increasingly capable of self-steering, exhibiting the high degree of autonomythatissocharacteristicofgenuinescientificresearch. MygoodfriendandcolleagueJosemarRodriguesreceivedamostdeservedac- colade at this EBEB. Josa’s drive for research produces many papers by himself, hisstudents,andcolleagues.HavingbecomeagoodfriendofProfessorBasu,Josa wasalsodeeplyinfluencedbyhiminhismovefromagoodfrequentisttoasuperb Bayesian. In a way, Dev is a Founding Father of Brazilian Bayesianism. His visit to USP intheeightiesleftseedswhichbecameimportantBayesiantrees.Thisprocesswas also caused by the visit of Dennis, who sadly passed away in 2013. The Brazilian Bayesiancommunityowesgratitudetothetwogurusanddedicatesthisvolumeto theirmemory. FabioSpizzichinoandClaudioMacci’spaperinthisbookisaBraziliancontri- butiontothecelebrationsofthe250thanniversaryofthepublicationof(ultimately thereasonforustogatheratAtibaia)“AnEssaytowardsSolvingaProbleminthe DoctrineofChances”byOurReverendThomasBayes. SãoPaulo SergioWechsler January2015 Preface This volume of the “Springer Proceedings in Mathematics & Statistics” contains selected articles from EBEB 2014. The home page of the event is available at http://www.ime.usp.br/∼isbra/ebeb/ebeb2014. • ThemainpromotersofEBEB2014were – ISBrA—BrazilianchapteroftheInternationalSocietyforBayesianAnalysis (ISBA) – INCTMat—NationalInstituteofMathematicalScienceandTechnology – InterinstitutionalGraduatePrograminStatisticsofUFSCar/ICMC-USP – GraduatePrograminStatisticsofIME-USP – IME-USP—InstituteofMathematicsandStatisticsofUniversityofSãoPaulo • OrganizingCommittee – AdrianoPolpo(UFSCar) – CarlosAlbertodeBragançaPereira(IME-USP) – FrancisoLouzadaNeto(ICMC-USP) – JulioStern(IME-USP) – LauraLetíciaRamosRifo(UNICAMP) – MarceloLauretto(EACH-USP) – TeresaCristinaMartinsDias(UFSCar) • ScientificCommittee – AdrianoPolpo(UFSCar/Brazil) – AlexandraM.Schmidt(UFRJ/Brazil) – AndréRogatko(Cedars-Sinai/US) – CarlosAlbertodeBragançaPereira(IME-USP/Brazil) – CarlosA.R.Diniz(UFSCar/Brazil) – CassiodeCampos(IDSIA/Switzerland) – DaniGamerman(IM-UFRJ/Brazil) – DebajyotiSinha(FSU/US) – FranciscoLouzadaNeto(ICMC-USP/Brazil) – JulioStern(IME-USP/Brazil) – LauraLetíciaRamosRifo(IMECC-UNICAMP/Brazil) – MarceloLauretto(EACH-USP/Brazil) – MárciaD’EliaBranco(IME-USP/Brazil) vii viii Preface – MarcioAlvesDiniz(UFSCar/Brazil) – RosangelaH.Loschi(UFMG/Brazil) – VictorFossaluza(IME-USP/Brazil) • Executivecommittee – BrunoBorcado(SupremumAssessoria/Brazil) – LourdesVazdaSilvaNetto(IME-USP/Brazil) – SylviaReginaA.Takahashi(IME-USP/Brazil) TheorganizersthankthefirstpresidentofISBrA,ProfessorSergioWechsler,forthe Forewordandthereviewersfortheircarefulworkinselectingthepapers.Thisbook isaconsequenceofthegreatandhardworkofallpeopleinvolvedintheorganization ofEBEB:colleagues,administratorsandtheconventioncenter/hotelemployers. Wealsothankthesupportofthefollowingpromoters: Contents 1 WhatAbout the Posterior Distributions When the Model is Non-dominated? .............................................. 1 ClaudioMacciandFabioSpizzichino 2 Predictive Inference Under Exchangeability, and the Imprecise DirichletMultinomialModel ................................... 13 GertdeCooman,JasperDeBockandMárcioDiniz 3 Bayesian Learning of Material Density Function by Multiple SequentialInversionsof2-DImagesinElectronMicroscopy ....... 35 DaliaChakrabartyandShashiPaul 4 ProblemswithConstructingTeststoAccepttheNullHypothesis.... 49 AndréRogatkoandStevenPiantadosi 5 Cognitive-Constructivism, Quine, Dogmas of Empiricism, and Münchhausen’sTrilemma...................................... 55 JulioMichaelStern 6 AMaximumEntropyApproachtoLearnBayesianNetworksfrom IncompleteData .............................................. 69 GiorgioCoraniandCassioP.deCampos 7 BayesianInferenceinCumulativeDistributionFields ............. 83 RicardoSilva 8 MCMC-DrivenAdaptiveMultipleImportanceSampling .......... 97 LucaMartino,VíctorElvira,DavidLuengoandJukkaCorander 9 Bayes Factors for Comparison of Restricted Simple Linear RegressionCoefficients ........................................ 111 VivianaGiampaoli,CarlosA.B.Pereira,HelenoBolfarine andJulioM.Singer ix