Intelligent Transportation and Evacuation Planning: A Modeling-Based Approach PDF
Preview Intelligent Transportation and Evacuation Planning: A Modeling-Based Approach
Intelligent Transportation and Evacuation Planning Arab Naser Ali K. Kamrani l Intelligent Transportation and Evacuation Planning A Modeling-Based Approach ArabNaser AliK.Kamrani DesignandFreeFormFabrication DesignandFreeFormFabrication Laboratory Laboratory IndustrialEngineeringDepartment IndustrialEngineeringDepartment UniversityofHouston UniversityofHouston Houston,TX,USA Houston,TX,USA FatimahAlnijris’sResearchChair forAdvancedManufacturingTechnology IndustrialEngineeringDepartment KingSaudUniversity Riyadh,SaudiArabia ISBN978-1-4614-2142-9 e-ISBN978-1-4614-2143-6 DOI10.1007/978-1-4614-2143-6 SpringerNewYorkDordrechtHeidelbergLondon LibraryofCongressControlNumber:2012933992 #SpringerScience+BusinessMedia,LLC2012 Allrightsreserved.Thisworkmaynotbetranslatedorcopiedinwholeorinpartwithoutthewritten permissionof the publisher (SpringerScience+Business Media, LLC, 233 SpringStreet, New York, NY10013,USA),exceptforbriefexcerptsinconnectionwithreviewsorscholarlyanalysis.Usein connectionwithanyformofinformationstorageandretrieval,electronicadaptation,computersoftware, orbysimilarordissimilarmethodologynowknownorhereafterdevelopedisforbidden. Theuseinthispublicationoftradenames,trademarks,servicemarks,andsimilarterms,evenifthey arenotidentifiedassuch,isnottobetakenasanexpressionofopinionastowhetherornottheyare subjecttoproprietaryrights. Printedonacid-freepaper SpringerispartofSpringerScience+BusinessMedia(www.springer.com) To my mother, wife and children Arab Naser, Ph.D. and To my boys, Arshya & Ariya Ali K. Kamrani, Ph.D., P.E. “Honesty is the best policy. If I lose mine honor, I lose myself” William Shakespeare (1564–1616) Preface For most human beings, facing threats is inevitable. While in some cases a threat canbetreatedoreliminated,thesafestcourseofactioninfacingthreatsisoftento evacuatethedangerzone.Thisisespeciallydemonstratedbynaturalthreats,such asearthquakes,hurricanes,andfires,wheretheforceofthethreatismuchgreater thananypossiblehumandefense.Evacuationofthedangerzonecanvaryinscale from individual movement to hundreds of thousands of people evacuating urban cities.Urbanevacuationcanbeviewedastheprocessinwhichevacueesaremoved from danger areas to safe zones utilizing transportation resources. This massive movement of population typically exceeds normal demands on transportation resources and thus requires careful planning and optimization. The greatest risk ofapoorevacuationplanisthatpeoplemaylosetheirlivesiftheyarenotgiventhe chancetoevacuateontime.Anotherlesssevereconsequenceisamassivenumber ofpeopletrappedforhoursontheroad. Recently, evacuation planning and modeling have attracted interests among researchers as well as government officials. This is probably due to the fact that south eastern states of USA are under increasing threat of hurricane attacks every year. The catastrophic loss of human lives after hurricane Katrina, and the massive evacuation “nightmare” before hurricane Rita in 2005 have also initiated several research effortsforthedevelopmentofevacuationplanningstrategiesand techniques. This book presents the state-of-art models and methodologies for evacuation planning. These models integrate various scientific disciplines, such as operations research,simulation,trafficengineering,andsystemsengineering.Simulationand operationsresearchfocusonanalytical(mathematical)modelsandmethodologies; thus,themaingoalofthesemodelsistofindthebestroutesforevacuation.Onthe other hand, systems engineering applies the planning process at the top level or design phase, while considering all the following stages. Traffic engineering and intelligenttransportationresearchprovidesunderstandingofreallifecharacteristic andattributesfortheevacuationprocess. vii viii Preface Intelligent transportation systems (ITS) are complex systems that apply communications and information systems technology in transportation infrastruc- ture to improve the efficiency, safety, and security of the transportation system. The Research and Innovative Technology Administration of the Department of Transportation(U.S.DOT)listsseveralresearchinitiativestoaccomplisheffective ITS. ITS improves safety and mobility of transportation systems and increases productivity of human beings by integrating technologies known for communica- tions,vehicles,andinfrastructuresusedintransportation.Abroadrangeofwireless communications is involved in ITS. In late 1980s, importance of addressing life cycle operations and maintenance as part of the systems development was not known. To address these challenges, systems engineering was introduced to the ITScommunity.ITSinclude avastarray ofpossibilities,andtodevelop effective andreliableinitiativesitisnecessarytoadoptcertainprovenmethodologiesasthat presentedbysystemsengineeringtheories. Systems engineering is a discipline which deals with the development of both the methodologies and required technologies for design and engineering of com- plex systems. System is an integrated set of components such as equipments, information, materials, human resources, building, software, etc. which work collectively toward producing a desired outcome based on a set of requirements andspecifications.Foreverysystemtherewillbemultiplesubsystems.Systemscan besimplyclassifiedintostaticanddynamic.Manyareacombinationofthesetwo categories. An example of a dynamic system is transportation systems. Usually largeandcomplexsystemsaredifficulttobuildandmaintain.Systemsengineering isaneffectiveprocesswhichdealswiththeoveralllifecycledesignofanysystem. Itmanagestheprojectsbyusingtoolsandmethodsstage-by-stagefromconception, design,manufacturing,operation,andtodisposal. Mathematical models have been developed for evacuation planning. These models range between network optimization and simulation models. Network optimizationmodelsaimatfinding“thebest”routesforevacuation.Inevacuation planning, the ultimate goal is to clear and move all evacuees to safety in the minimum amount of time. In pursuing this goal these models have to simplify model complexity by adding assumption that may seem contradictory to real life observations. One of these observations is the relation between roads travel time and the number of evacuees on the road. Most network optimization models assume constant travel time whereas realistically travel time depends on traffic density.Simulationmodelsontheotherhandareunabletofindtheoptimumroutes. Instead several alternative routes and scenarios are evaluated to assist in the planningprocess.However,thesimplestructureofasimulationroutinefacilitates capturingcomplexsystemattributes,suchasload-dependenttraveltime. An integrated methodology that utilizes the advantages of both models is presentedinthisbook.Inthismethodology,thegoalistofindthebestroutesthat minimizetotalevacuationtimewhileallowingtraveltimetobeafunctionofroads density. This book also presents state-of-the-arts models and methodologies for evacuationplanningbasedonthesystemsengineeringconcepts. Preface ix Fig.1 Costofprojectscheduleoverrun(UnderstandingtheValueofSystemsEngineering;Eric Honour;INCOSE2004) Chapter 1 presents an introduction to system engineering concept. Systems engineering (SE) is a term that was coined in the 1950s then associated with the processofdevelopinglarge-scaledefensesystems.PerINCOSE,systemsengineer- ing is: An interdisciplinary approach and means to enable the realization of successfulsystems.Itfocusesondefiningcustomerneedsandrequiredfunctionality early in the development cycle, documenting requirements, then proceeding with design synthesis and system validation while considering the complete problem. Systemsengineeringintegratesallthedisciplinesandspecialtygroupsintoateam effort forming a structured development process that proceeds from concept to production tooperation.Systemsengineering considersboth the business and the technical needs of all customers with the goal of providing a quality product that meetstheuserneeds. Thisdefinition,whileverybroad,includesallaspectsofaproject,fromdevelop- menttodisposal.Itincludesvarioustechnicalandprojectmanagementactivitiesas wellasdesignrequirementsanalysisandriskmanagement.Inamoregeneralsense, systems engineering is a systematic approach to providing a deliverable with minimalcorrectioncostsviadetailedandsynergisticplanningwiththedevelopment of tools that directly support project management. As shown in Fig. 11, systems engineering effort has a direct relationship with the project cost. Furthermore, by mitigating and correcting defects at an early stage via the implementation of the opinions of all parties involved in the project, project costs are kept within the plannedrange.Thisextensiveplanningandcoordinationeffortisacriticalaspectof systemsengineering. 1UnderstandingtheValueofSystemsEngineering;EricHonour;INCOSE2004. x Preface Chapter 2 discusses the application of systems engineering in planning and developing of ITS. The systems engineering process model that is commonly emerging in developing ITS projects is the “V” model and has hence become the standardmodelpertheDOTandFHWA. Since its creation in the 1980s, the “V” model has taken many different forms andrefinements.Namely,thewingsofregionalarchitecture(s),feasibilitystudies, operations and maintenance, changes and upgrades, and retirement/replacement have been added by the transportation sector as an adaptation for its use in the systems engineering of ITS projects. These additions show how project develop- ment fits within the entire ITS project life-cycle. For this particular “V” model, fromlefttorightthe“V”startswithparametersthatinvolveinitialidentificationof needs. These parameters include the regional ITS architecture, feasibility studies, and concept exploration. The central section of the “V” shows parameters of the systemsengineeringprocessthatinvolvedefiningtheproject,implementingwork, and lastly verifying work completed. At the far right, close-out processes include handingoverthesystemtooperationsandmaintenance, andfromtheremaintain- ing, upgrading, and/orultimately replacing the system. As with any infrastructure project,itisimportanttoconsidertheentirelife-cycle.Hence,thewingsofthe“V” are a key addition that brings the systems engineering of ITS projects full circle. Itisclear,bymovingfromlefttoright,thatthesystemsengineeringapproachstarts relativelybasicandgeneralized,thenmovestohighlydetailedtechnicalprocesses, andfinallybacktofullspectrumvalidation.Further,the“V”isarrangedsuchthat qualityisassuredviaverificationandvalidationbylinkingtheleftandrightsidesof the“V”together.Toproperlyachievedetaileddesign,thelargersystemisbroken downintosubsystems,andthosesubsystemsarethendecomposedintoindividual components. As the system is broken down into smaller and smaller pieces, the detailsofthedesignandtherequirementsoftheindividualcomponentsareclearly defined. Thus, as the systems are broken down, a series of traceable and interlinking documentsaregeneratedthatsetstandardsfortesting,verification,andvalidationat the system, subsystem, and component levels. These specification documents, whileassuringquality,alsopromoteprojectmanagement.Anothercrucialcompo- nent of the systems engineering approach to designing ITS projects is that by decomposing the overall system into smaller and more detailed systems, there is an inherent relationship established between all of the individual stages of the systems engineering process as well as the individual components of the system and subsystems. By documenting and establishing this interrelationship, called traceability, project and system requirements are developed intrinsically as part of the design. This is a critical concept of systems engineering that allows the designertobecertainthatthesystemisdeliveredwiththeinitialneedsestablished at the beginning of the project, and throughout the design stages of the systems engineeringprocess.Forexample,traceabilitymayincluderelatingarequirement to the subsystem or components that will implement a requirement in the overall system.Thistraceabilityensuresthatasystemorprojectneedwillbemetthrougha smallersubsystemrequirement.
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