Instruments to increase climate policy ambition before 2020

113 Pages·2016·2.09 MB·English

CLIMATE CHANGE
2 9/2016

Instruments to increase
climate policy ambition
before 2020 - economic
and political implications
in selected industry and
emerging countries
Final Report

CLIMATE CHANGE 29/2016
Environmental Research of the
Federal Ministry for the
Environment, Nature Conservation,
Building and Nuclear Safety
Project No. (FKZ) 3713 41 103
Report No. (UBA-FB) 002347/ENG

Instruments to increase climate policy
ambition before 2020 - economic and political
implications in selected industry and
emerging countries

Final Report

by
Sean Healy, Katja Schumacher
Öko-Institut e. V., Berlin
Thomas Day*, Niklas Höhne*, Karlien Wouters, Hanna Fekete*, Lidewij van den
Brink, Ecofys
Vicki Duscha
Fraunhofer ISI
Öko-Institut, Schickler Str. 5-7, 10179 Berlin

On behalf oft the German Environment Agency (Germany)
January 2016

*: with Ecofys at the time of writing of the report
Imprint

Publisher:
German Environment Agency
Wörlitzer Platz 1
06844 Dessau-Roßlau
Tel: [phone]
Fax: [phone]
[email protected]
Internet: www.umweltbundesamt.de

/umweltbundesamt.de
/umweltbundesamt

Study performed by:
Öko-Institut e. V., Schickler Str. 5-7, 10179 Berlin

Study completed in:
January 2016
Edited by:
Section I 2.1, Judith Voß-Stemping

Publication as pdf:
http://www.umweltbundesamt.de/publikationen/

ISSN 1862-4359

Dessau-Roßlau, October 2016

The Project underlying this report was supported with funding from the Federal
Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, Building and Nuclear safety
under project number FKZ 3713 41 103. The responsibility for the content of this
publication lies with the author(s).
UBA Report: Climate policy ambition before 2020 Final Report

Abstract
Currently there exists a gap between the emissions projected in the Intended Nationally Determined
Contributions (INDCs) submitted by countries to the UNFCCC and the emissions that are consistent
with limiting global warming to below 2°C (Climate Action Tracker, 2015a; UNFCCC, 2015). Given
that the INDCs only commit countries to mitigation actions beyond 2020, there is an opportunity to
further reduce this projected emission gap in 2030 based upon more ambitious mitigation efforts
prior to 2020. The aim of this research paper is to analyse the current mitigation efforts of countries,
identify best practices and estimate the global impact on emission reductions in 2020 if applied
globally. By estimating the extent to which mitigation potential may exist up until 2020 and by
providing insights on how policy barriers may be overcome, this report aims to facilitate enhanced
action by countries participating in the UNFCCC negotiations prior to 2020.

Kurzbeschreibung
Derzeit besteht eine Lücke zwischen den projizierten Treibhausgasemissionen in den „angestrebten
nationalen Beiträgen“ (Intended Nationally Determined Contributions, INDCs), die von den Ländern
bei der UNFCCC eingereicht wurden, und den Emissionen, die mit einer Begrenzung des globalen
Temperaturanstiegs auf maximal 2°C konsistent sind (Climate Action Tracker, 2015a; UN-FCCC,
2015). Da die INDCs die Länder nur zu Minderungsmaßnahmen nach 2020 verpflichten, bieten am-
bitioniertere Minderungsanstrengungen vor 2020 eine weitere wichtige Möglichkeit die Emissionslü-
cke für das Jahr 2030 weiter zu reduzieren. Ziel des vorliegenden Berichts ist daher, aktuelle Minde-
rungsanstrengungen von Ländern zu analysieren, Best Practice-Politiken und Maßnahmen zu identi-
fizieren und Auswirkungen auf die Emissionsminderungen im Jahr 2020 abzuschätzen, wenn diese
Best Practices global umgesetzt würden. Die Analyse dieses globalen Minderungspotentials bis zum
Jahr 2020 wird ergänzt durch eine Diskussion, wie mögliche Hemmnisse zur Umsetzung des Potenti-
als überwunden werden können. Damit bietet der Bericht einen Beitrag zur Ermöglichung verstärkter
Aktivitäten von UNFCCC-Ländern vor 2020.
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UBA Report: Climate policy ambition before 2020 Final Report

Tables of content
List of Figures ............................................................................................................................ 8
List of Tables ............................................................................................................................. 9
Executive Summary ................................................................................................................. 10
Zusammenfassung .................................................................................................................. 16
1 Introduction .................................................................................................................... 22
2 Methodological approach ................................................................................................ 23
2.1 Screening of current activities ............................................................................ 23
2.1.1 Selection of countries .................................................................................... 24
2.1.2 Indicators for policy evaluation ....................................................................... 24
2.1.3 Selection of thematic areas and specific case studies for evaluation ................. 25
2.2 Analysis of selected thematic areas .................................................................... 25
2.2.1 Qualitative Analysis ....................................................................................... 25
2.2.2 Quantification of reductions ........................................................................... 26
3 Results of screening of current activities ........................................................................... 26
4 Results per thematic area ................................................................................................ 33
4.1 Renewable Energy Support (RES) ........................................................................ 33
4.1.1 Germany: Feed in Tariff .................................................................................. 33
4.1.2 China: Renewable Energy Law......................................................................... 35
4.1.3 USA: Production Tax Credit ............................................................................. 38
4.1.4 United Kingdom: Renewables Obligation ......................................................... 40
4.1.5 Quantitative assessment ................................................................................ 43
4.1.5.1 Methodological considerations 43
4.1.5.2 Results of quantitative assessment 44
4.1.6 International discussions in related forums ..................................................... 47
4.1.7 Summary and recommendations for RES ......................................................... 48
4.1.7.1 Summary and comparison of case studies 48
4.1.7.2 Barriers and mitigating policy features 50
4.1.7.3 Co-benefits 50
4.1.7.4 Policy impacts and mitigation potential 51
4.2 Light Duty Vehicle Standards .............................................................................. 51
4.2.1 U.S: Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) and GHG standards ...................... 51
4.2.1.1 Motivation and co-benefits of U.S. CAFE 53
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UBA Report: Climate policy ambition before 2020 Final Report

4.2.2 EU: Reducing CO emissions from passenger cars - Regulation
2
443/2009/EC ............................................................................................... 54
4.2.2.1 Motivation and co-benefits of E.U. vehicle emissions regulation 56
4.2.3 Japan: Top Runner Fuel Efficiency Standards for Light Duty Vehicles .................. 56
4.2.4 China – Corporate Average Fuel Consumption (CAFC) ....................................... 58
4.2.5 Quantitative assessment ................................................................................ 60
4.2.5.1 Methodological considerations 60
4.2.5.2 Results of quantitative assessment 62
4.2.6 International discussions in related forums ..................................................... 65
4.2.7 Summary and recommendations for light duty vehicle standards ...................... 66
4.2.7.1 Summary and comparison of case studies 66
4.2.7.2 Barriers and mitigating policy features 69
4.2.7.3 Co-benefits and motivation 69
4.2.7.4 Future outlook 70
4.2.7.5 Policy impacts and mitigation potential 71
4.3 Emissions from flaring during oil and gas production ........................................... 71
4.3.1 Norway – the Petroleum Act and the Pollution Control Act ................................. 71
4.3.2 Russia – License requirements and the law “on environmental protection” ........ 74
4.3.3 Quantitative assessment of policies ................................................................ 76
4.3.3.1 Methodological considerations 76
4.3.3.2 Results of quantitative assessment 77
4.3.4 International discussions in related forums ..................................................... 80
4.3.5 Summary and recommendations for flaring during oil and gas production ......... 81
4.3.5.1 Summary and comparison of case studies 81
4.3.5.2 Barriers and mitigating policy features 81
4.3.5.3 Co-benefits and motivation 82
4.3.5.4 Future outlook 82
4.3.5.5 Policy impact and mitigation potential 82
4.4 Appliances ........................................................................................................ 82
4.4.1 Japan: Top Runner programme ........................................................................ 82
4.4.2 South Korea: Energy Efficiency Label and Standard Programme ........................ 86
4.4.3 Quantitative assessment ................................................................................ 88
4.4.3.1 Methodological considerations 88
4.4.3.2 Results of quantitative assessment 89
4.4.4 International discussions in related forums ..................................................... 91
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UBA Report: Climate policy ambition before 2020 Final Report

4.4.5 Summary and recommendations for appliances ............................................... 92
4.4.5.1 Summary and comparison of case studies 92
4.4.5.2 Barriers and mitigating policy features 93
4.4.5.3 Co-benefits and motivation 93
4.4.5.4 Policy impact and mitigation potential 94
5 Conclusion ..................................................................................................................... 95
6 List of References ............................................................................................................ 97
7 Appendix ...................................................................................................................... 103
7.1 Appendix I - Countries selected for the screening analysis .................................. 103
7.2 Appendix II – Indicators for selection of countries and thematic areas ................. 104

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UBA Report: Climate policy ambition before 2020 Final Report

List of Figures
Figure 1: General methodological steps .......................................................................... 23
Figure 2: Development of electricity generation from renewable energies in
Germany ......................................................................................................... 34
Figure 3: Cumulative development of wind and solar capacity between
2005 and 2014 compared to future targets ....................................................... 37
Figure 4 Cumulative development of wind capacity in the USA between
1998 and 2014 ............................................................................................... 39
Figure 5: Cumulative development of wind and solar capacity in the UK
between 1998 and 2014 .................................................................................. 41
Figure 6: Share of renewables in electricity generation (country-level
analysis)......................................................................................................... 45
Figure 7: Global upscaling result for RES-E support policies ............................................. 47
Figure 8: CAFE standards and actual performance for light duty passenger
vehicles - MY 1978-2025 ................................................................................. 52
Figure 9: EU standards and actual performance for light duty passenger
vehicles - MY 1995-2025 ................................................................................. 55
Figure 10: Average standards and achieved performances of new production
light duty passenger vehicles in Japan .............................................................. 57
Figure 11: Average standards and achieved performances of light duty
passenger vehicles in China ............................................................................. 59
Figure 12: Results of country-level quantification for LDV vehicle standards ........................ 64
Figure 13: Global upscaling result for vehicle standards .................................................... 65
Figure 14: Comparison of achieved light duty vehicle fuel economy and
proposed standards for EU, US, China and Japan, MY 1995-2025 ....................... 68
Figure 15: Emissions from venting and flaring in Norway ................................................... 73
Figure 16: Index of APG flared and crude oil production for Russia (1994 -
2010) ............................................................................................................. 78
Figure 17: Results country-level quantification of flaring reduction policies ........................ 79
Figure 18: Upscaling to top-5 flaring countries (only emissions from Russia,
Nigeria, Iran, Iraq and Algeria are shown) .......................................................... 80
Figure 19: Electricity consumption with and without Ecodesign Directive
implemented .................................................................................................. 90
Figure 20: Global upscaling for appliances and lighting policies ......................................... 91
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UBA Report: Climate policy ambition before 2020 Final Report

List of Tables
Table 1: Result of country policy analysis: most popular policy
instruments and percentage coverage .............................................................. 11
Table 2: Ergebnisse der Politikanalyse: die gängigsten Politikinstrumente
der Länder in Prozent ...................................................................................... 17
Table 2: Structure of indicators by policy area and sector ............................................... 24
Table 3: Summary list of indicators for country policy analysis ........................................ 26
Table 4: Result of country policy analysis: most popular policy
instruments and percentage coverage .............................................................. 28
Table 5: Overview of mitigation potential by initiative ..................................................... 29
Table 6: Extended list of possible thematic areas (indicative mitigation
potential in brackets) ...................................................................................... 31
Table 7: Selected thematic areas and their rational for selection ..................................... 31
Table 8: Overview of the countries selected per thematic area ......................................... 32
Table 9: Target input data for quantification of RES-E support ......................................... 44
Table 10: Results country-level analyses RES-E support policies ....................................... 45
Table 11: Summary of qualitative assessment ................................................................. 48
Table 12: Approach for upscaling quantitative analysis of vehicle standards ...................... 62
Table 13: Input data for quantification of vehicle standards .............................................. 62
Table 14: Results of country-level quantification for LDV vehicle standards ........................ 64
Table 15: Summary and comparison of vehicle standards in the EU, Japan,
China and the US ............................................................................................ 67
Table 16: Results country-level quantification of flaring reduction policies ........................ 79
Table 17: Summary and comparison of methane policy in Norway and
Russia ............................................................................................................ 81
Table 18: Energy efficiency improvement of major products with Top
Runner Standards ........................................................................................... 84
Table 19: Summary of qualitative assessment for appliances ............................................ 92
Table 20: List of countries that are selected for the screening analysis ............................ 103
Table 21: Structure of indicators by policy area and sector ............................................. 104
Table 22: Data collection guideline for indicators ........................................................... 105
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