Instruments to increase climate policy ambition before 2020

94 Pages·2014·1.31 MB·English

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Instruments to increase climate
policy ambition before 2020 –
economic and political implications in
selected industry and emerging
countries

Pre2020 climate policy ambition Berlin, 06 June 2014

DRAFT VERSION

Environmental Research of the Federal Ministry for the
Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety
Project No. 3713 41 103
Authors Head Office Freiburg
P.O. Box 17 71

79017 Freiburg
Nadine Braun Sean Healy
Street address
Ecofys Öko-Institut e.V. (Aether) Merzhauser Strasse 173
79100 Freiburg
Tel. [phone]
Niklas Höhne Katja Schumacher

Ecofys Öko-Institut e.V.
Office Berlin
Schicklerstrasse 5-7
Markus Hagemann Vicki Duscha 10179 Berlin
Tel. [phone]
Ecofys ISI Fraunhofer

Office Darmstadt
Thomas Day Rheinstrasse 95
Ecofys 64295 Darmstadt
Tel. [phone]

[email protected]
www.oeko.de

Partner

Climate policy ambition before 2020

Table of Contents
List of Figures 6
List of Tables 7
1 Summary 11
1.1 Renewable Energy Support (RES) 12
1.2 Light duty vehicle standards 12
1.3 Methane from fossil fuel production 13
1.4 Electric appliances 13
2 Methodological approach 14
2.1 Screening of current activities 15
2.1.1 Selection of countries 15
2.1.2 Indicators for policy evaluation 15
2.1.3 Selection of thematic areas and specific case studies for evaluation 16
2.2 Analysis of selected thematic areas 17
2.2.1 Qualitative Analysis 17
2.2.2 Quantification of reductions 17
2.2.2.1 Step 1: Estimate the impact of proposed thematic areas in selected countries 17
2.2.2.2 Step 2: Estimate the global reduction potential 17
2.2.2.3 Tools 18
3 Results of screening of current activities 19
4 Results per thematic area 23
4.1 Renewable Energy Support (RES) 23
4.1.1 Germany: Feed in Tariff 23
4.1.2 China: Renewable Energy Law 25
4.1.3 USA: Production Tax Credit 28
4.1.4 United Kingdom: Renewables Obligation 30
4.1.5 Quantitative assessment 32
4.1.5.1 Methodological assumptions for RES thematic area 32
4.1.5.1.1 Country-level quantification 32
4.1.5.1.2 Regional and global upscaling 33
4.1.5.2 Results of quantitative assessment 34
4.1.6 International discussions in related forums 37
4.1.7 Summary and recommendations for RES 38
4.1.7.1 Summary and comparison of case studies 38
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Climate policy ambition before 2020

4.1.7.2 Barriers and mitigating policy features 39
4.1.7.3 Co-benefits 39
4.1.7.4 Policy impacts and mitigation potential 40
4.2 Light Duty Vehicle Standards 41
4.2.1 U.S: Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) and GHG standards 41
4.2.1.1 Motivation and co-benefits of U.S. CAFE 43
4.2.2 EU: Reducing CO emissions from passenger cars - Regulation 443/2009/EC 44
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4.2.2.1 Motivation and co-benefits of E.U. vehicle emissions regulation 46
4.2.3 Japan: Top Runner Fuel Efficiency Standards for Light Duty Vehicles 46
4.2.4 China – Corporate Average Fuel Consumption (CAFC) 47
4.2.5 Quantitative assessment 48
4.2.5.1 Methodological considerations 48
4.2.5.1.1 Country-level analysis 48
4.2.5.1.2 Regional and global upscaling 50
4.2.5.2 Results of quantitative assessment 51
4.2.6 International discussions in related forums 53
4.2.7 Summary and recommendations for light duty vehicle standards 54
4.2.7.1 Summary and comparison of case studies 54
4.2.7.2 Barriers and mitigating policy features 56
4.2.7.3 Co-benefits and motivation 56
4.2.7.4 Future outlook 57
4.2.7.5 Policy impacts and mitigation potential 58
4.3 Methane from fossil fuel production 58
4.3.1 Qualitative assessment 58
4.3.1.1 Norway – the Petroleum Act and the Pollution Control Act 59
4.3.1.2 Russia – License requirements and the law “on environmental protection” 61
4.3.2 Quantitative assessment of policies 63
4.3.2.1 Methodological considerations 63
4.3.2.1.1 Country-level analysis 63
4.3.2.1.2 Regional and global upscaling 64
4.3.2.2 Results of quantitative assessment 65
4.3.3 International discussions in related forums 67
4.3.4 Summary and recommendations for methane from fossil fuel production 68
4.3.4.1 Summary and comparison of case studies 68
4.3.4.2 Barriers and mitigating policy features 68
4.3.4.3 Co-benefits and motivation 69
4.3.4.4 Future outlook 69
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Climate policy ambition before 2020

4.3.4.5 Policy impact and mitigation potential 69
4.4 Appliances 70
4.4.1 Japan: Top Runner programme 70
4.4.2 South Korea: Energy Efficiency Label and Standard Programme 73
4.4.3 Quantitative assessment 75
4.4.3.1 Methodological considerations 75
4.4.3.1.1 Country-level analysis 75
4.4.3.1.2 Regional and global upscaling 76
4.4.3.2 Results of quantitative assessment 77
4.4.4 International discussions in related forums 80
4.4.5 Summary and recommendations for appliances 80
4.4.5.1 Summary and comparison of case studies 80
4.4.5.2 Barriers and mitigating policy features 81
4.4.5.3 Co-benefits and motivation 81
4.4.5.4 Policy impact and mitigation potential 82
5 List of References 83
6 Appendix 86
6.1 Countries selected for the screening analysis 86
6.2 Appendix I – Indicators for selection of countries and thematic areas 87
6.3 Appendix II 93

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Climate policy ambition before 2020

List of Figures
Figure 1: General methodological steps 14
Figure 2: Development of electricity generation from renewable energies in
Germany 24
Figure 3: Rate of increase in gross electricity generation from RE compared to
2005 27
Figure 4: Development of wind power in the United States between 1992 and
2011 28
Figure 5: Renewables Obligation Performance 2002-2009 30
Figure 6: Results of country-level quantification for RES-E targets (Germany, UK
and Morocco) 35
Figure 7: Results of country-level quantification for RES-E targets (China) 35
Figure 8: Global upscaling result for RES-E Support 37
Figure 9: CAFE standards and actual performance for light duty passenger
vehicles - MY 1978-2025 42
Figure 10: EU standards and actual performance for light duty passenger vehicles
- MY 1995-2025 45
Figure 11: Results of country-level quantification for LDV vehicle standards 52
Figure 12: Global upscaling result for vehicle standards 53
Figure 13: Comparison of achieved light duty vehicle fuel economy and proposed
standards for EU, US, China and Japan, MY 1995-2025 55
Figure 14: Oil production and flaring of associated gas in Norway between 1980
and 2002 60
Figure 15: Emissions from venting and flaring in Norway 60
Figure 16: Index of APG flared and crude oil production for Russia (1994 - 2010) 65
Figure 17: Results country-level quantification of flaring reduction policies 66
Figure 18: Upscaling to top-5 flaring countries (only emissions from Russia,
Nigeria, Iran, Iraq and Algeria are shown) 67
Figure 19: Long term trend of the energy efficiency of room air conditioners in
Japan 72
Figure 20: Transformation of the fluorescent lamp market between 1999 and 2008 74
Figure 21: Energy efficiency gains in households in the EU since 2000 (based on
Odyssee-Mure, 2014) 77
Figure 22: Results of country-level quantification for appliances policies 78
Figure 23: Upscaling to OECD for appliances and lighting policies 79

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Climate policy ambition before 2020

List of Tables
Table 1: Result of country policy analysis: most popular policy instruments and
percentage coverage 11
Table 2: Structure of indicators by policy area and sector 15
Table 3: Result of country policy analysis: most popular policy instruments and
percentage coverage 20
Table 4: Overview of mitigation potential by initiative (Source UNEP emissions
gap report 2013) 21
Table 5: Extended list of possible thematic areas (indicative mitigation potential
in brackets) 21
Table 6: Selected thematic areas and their rational for selection 22
Table 7: Overview of the countries selected per thematic area 23
Table 8: Approach for upscaling quantitative analysis of RES-E targets 34
Table 9: Target input data for quantification of RES-E support 34
Table 10: Results of country-level quantification for RES-E support policies 36
Table 11: Shares of energy carriers in different pathways 36
Table 12: Summary of qualitative assessment 38
Table 13: Average standards and achieved performances of new production light
duty passenger vehicles in Japan 46
Table 14: Average standards and achieved performances of light duty passenger
vehicles in China 47
Table 15: Approach for upscaling quantitative analysis of vehicle standards 50
Table 16: Input data for quantification of vehicle standards 51
Table 17: Results of country-level quantification for LDV vehicle standards 52
Table 18: Summary and comparison of vehicle standards in the EU, Japan, China
and the US 54
Table 19: Results country-level quantification of flaring reduction policies 66
Table 20: Summary and comparison of methane policy in Norway and Russia 68
Table 21: Energy efficiency improvement of major products with Top Runner
Standards 71
Table 22: Results of country-level quantification for RES-E support policies 78
Table 23: Summary of qualitative assessment for appliances 80
Table 24: List of countries that are selected for the screening analysis 86
Table 25: Structure of indicators by policy area and sector 87
Table 26: Data collection guideline for indicators 88
Table 27: List of data sources consolidated for the analysis 94

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Climate policy ambition before 2020

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