Innovations in travel demand modeling : summary of a conference, May 21-23, 2006, Austin, Texas

82 Pages·2008·3.178 MB·English

by  Turnbull, Katherine F

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Innovations in
Travel Demand Modeling
Summary of a Conference
volume 1: session summaries
isbn 978-0-309-11342-7
TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD
2008 EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE*
Chair: Debra L. Miller, Secretary, Kansas Department of Transportation, T opeka
Vice Chair: Adib K. Kanafani, Cahill Professor of Civil Engineering, University of California, B erkeley
Executive Director: Robert E. Skinner, Jr., Transportation Research B oard
J. Barry Barker, Executive Director, Transit Authority of River City, Louisville, K entucky
Allen D. Biehler, Secretary, Pennsylvania Department of Transportation, H arrisburg
John D. Bowe, President, Americas Region, APL Limited, Oakland, C alifornia
Larry L. Brown, Sr., Executive Director, Mississippi Department of Transportation, J ackson
Deborah H. Butler, Executive Vice President, Planning, and CIO, Norfolk Southern Corporation, Norfolk, V irginia
William A. V. Clark,Professor, Department of Geography, University of California, Los A ngeles
David S. Ekern, Commissioner, Virginia Department of Transportation, R ichmond
Nicholas J. Garber, Henry L. Kinnier Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Virginia, C harlottesville
Jeffrey W. Hamiel, Executive Director, Metropolitan Airports Commission, Minneapolis, M innesota
Edward A. (Ned) Helme, President, Center for Clean Air Policy, Washington, D .C.
Will Kempton, Director, California Department of Transportation, S acramento
Susan Martinovich, Director, Nevada Department of Transportation, Carson C ity
Michael D. Meyer, Professor, School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta
(Past Chair, 2006)
Michael R. Morris, Director of Transportation, North Central Texas Council of Governments, A rlington
Neil J. Pedersen, Administrator, Maryland State Highway Administration, B altimore
Pete K. Rahn, Director, Missouri Department of Transportation, Jefferson C ity
Sandra Rosenbloom, Professor of Planning, University of Arizona, T ucson
Tracy L. Rosser, Vice President, Corporate Traffic, W al- Mart Stores, Inc., Bentonville, A rkansas
Rosa Clausell Rountree, Executive Director, Georgia State Road and Tollway Authority, A tlanta
Henry G. (Gerry) Schwartz, Jr.,Chairman (retired), Jacobs/Sverdrup Civil, Inc., St. Louis, M issouri
C. Michael Walton, Ernest H. Cockrell Centennial Chair in Engineering, University of Texas, Austin (Past Chair, 1991)
Linda S. Watson, CEO, LYNX–Central Florida Regional Transportation Authority, Orlando(Past Chair, 2007)
Steve Williams, Chairman and CEO, Maverick Transportation, Inc., Little Rock, A rkansas
Thad Allen(Adm., U.S. Coast Guard), Commandant, U.S. Coast Guard, Washington, D.C. (ex officio)
Joseph H. Boardman, Administrator, Federal Railroad Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation (ex officio)
Rebecca M. Brewster, President and COO, American Transportation Research Institute, Smyrna, Georgia (ex officio)
Paul R. Brubaker, Administrator, Research and Innovative Technology Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation
(ex officio)
George Bugliarello, President Emeritus and University Professor, Polytechnic Institute of New York University, Brooklyn; Foreign
Secretary, National Academy of Engineering, Washington, D.C. (ex officio)
Sean T. Connaughton, Administrator, Maritime Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation (ex officio)
LeRoy Gishi, Chief, Division of Transportation, Bureau of Indian Affairs, U.S. Department of the Interior, Washington, D.C.
(ex officio)
Edward R. Hamberger, President and CEO, Association of American Railroads, Washington, D.C. (ex officio)
John H. Hill, Administrator, Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation (ex officio)
John C. Horsley, Executive Director, American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials, Washington, D.C.
(ex officio)
Carl T. Johnson, Administrator, Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation,
Washington, D.C. (ex officio)
J. Edward Johnson, Director, Applied Science Directorate, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, John C. Stennis Space
Center, Mississippi (ex officio)
David Kelly, Acting Administrator, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation
(ex officio)
Thomas J. Madison, Jr., Administrator, Federal Highway Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation (ex officio)
William W. Millar, President, American Public Transportation Association, Washington, D.C. (ex officio) (Past Chair, 1992)
James S. Simpson, Administrator, Federal Transit Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation (ex officio)
Robert A. Sturgell, Acting Administrator, Federal Aviation Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation (ex officio)
Robert L. Van Antwerp(Lt. General, U.S. Army), Chief of Engineers and Commanding General, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers,
Washington, D.C. (ex officio)
* Membership as of October 2008.
C O N F E R E N C E P R O C E E D I N G S 4 2
Innovations in
Travel Demand Modeling
Summary of a Conference
VOLUME 1: SESSION SUMMARIES
KATHERINE F. TURNBULL, Texas Transportation Institute
Rapporteur
May 21–23, 2006
Austin, Texas
Sponsored by
Transportation Research B oard
Federal Highway Administration
Federal Transit A dministration
Capital Metropolitan Transportation A uthority
Central Texas Regional Mobility A uthority
HNTB Corporation
PBS&J–Austin
URS Corporation
Washington, D.C.
2008
www.TRB.org
Transportation Research Board Conference Proceedings 42, Volume 1
ISSN 1073-1 652
ISBN 978-0-309-11342-7
Subscriber Category
IA planning and administration
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by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National
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This project was sponsored by the Transportation Research Board, the Federal Highway Administration,
the Federal Transit Administration, the Capital Metropolitan Transportation Authority, the Central Texas
Regional Mobility Authority, HNTB C orporation, PBS&J–Austin, and URS Corporation.
Committee on Innovations in Travel Demand Modeling: A Conference
Chandra R. Bhat, University of Texas, Austin, Cochair
Kenneth J. Cervenka, North Central Texas Council of Governments, Cochair
Kay W. Axhausen, Institut für Verkehrsplanung und Transport Systeme, S witzerland
Rick Donnelly, PB Consult, Inc.
Julie K. P. Dunbar, Dunbar Transportation C onsulting
Karen M. Faussett, Michigan Department of T ransportation
Rachel Gossen, Oakland Metropolitan Transportation C ommission
Konstadinos G. Goulias, University of California, Santa B arbara
Susan L. Handy, University of California, D avis
Hani S. Mahmassani, University of Maryland
Ram M. Pendyala, University of South Florida
Thomas F. Rossi, Cambridge Systematics, I nc.
William J. Upton, Oregon Department of T ransportation
Johanna P. Zmud, NuStats Partners, L P
Liaisons
Ronald T. Fisher, Federal Transit A dministration
Elizabeth Sherry Riklin, U.S. Department of T ransportation
Bruce D. Spear, Federal Highway Administration
Rapporteur
Katherine F. Turnbull, Texas Transportation I nstitute
TRB Staff
Kimberly M. Fisher, Associate Director, Technical Activities D ivision
Freda R. Morgan, Senior Program Associate
Bruce A. Millar, Meeting C oordinator
Gregory W. Wheeler, Registration A ssistant
TRB Publications O ffice
Betsy Winship, E ditor
Jennifer J. Weeks, Editorial Services S pecialist
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Juanita Green, Production M anager
Cover design by Beth Schlenoff, Beth Schlenoff Design.
Typesetting by Carol Levie, G rammarians.
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Preface
On May 21–23, 2006, the Transportation Research CONFERENCE PLANNING
Board (TRB) convened the Innovations in Travel
Demand Modeling Conference in Austin, Texas. To plan this conference, TRB assembled the Committee
The conference was sponsored by the following agencies, on Innovations in Travel Demand Modeling: A Confer-
organizations, and companies to provide an opportunity ence, appointed by the National Research Council.
for a frank exchange of ideas and experiences among aca- Under the chairmanship of Chandra R. Bhat, University
demics, model developers, and practitioners: TRB, the Fed- of Texas at Austin, and Kenneth J. Cervenka, North Cen-
eral Highway Administration (FHWA), the Federal Transit tral Texas Council of Governments, the planning com-
Administration (FTA), the Central Texas Regional Mobil- mittee identified three objectives for the conference. The
ity Authority, the Capital Metropolitan Transportation first objective was to examine advances in travel demand
Authority, PBS&J–Austin, URS Corporation, and HNTB modeling. The second objective was to facilitate the shar-
Corporation. Approximately 220 individuals participated, ing of ideas and information among academics and prac-
including individuals from across the transportation titioners on the opportunities and the challenges
research c ommunity—a t national, state, regional, and local associated with the implementation of advanced travel
levels and from the public and private sectors and models. The third objective was to identify additional
academia. areas for research, education, and training to ensure that
the travel demand modelers of today and tomorrow are
adequately prepared to apply the new model techniques.
BACKGROUND After identifying the three main objectives listed
above, the committee issued a call for papers. The com-
The last major specialty travel demand modeling con- mittee sought h igh- quality three- to f ive-p age white
ference was held as part of the U.S. Department of papers addressing the themes of the interactive sessions.
Transportation’s Travel Model Improvement Program The themes included the f ollowing:
(TMIP) in the fall of 1996. At that time, there was little
research and no practical application of land use models (cid:127) Data needs to support a ctivity-b ased and land use
and activity-b ased travel demand models, or integration microsimulation m odels;
of these models with demographic, economic, and net- (cid:127) Innovations in survey data collection to support
work modes. Since then, there has been a literal revolu- travel demand forecasting;
tion in travel demand forecasting. In particular, (cid:127) Population and household synthesis;
significant advances have been realized over the past (cid:127) Validation and assessment of a ctivity-b ased travel
decade in survey methods and analysis tools available to models;
the travel demand modeling p rofession. (cid:127) Implementation of a ctivity-b ased models;
v
vi INNOVATIONS IN TRAVEL DEMAND MODELING, VOLUME 1
(cid:127) Emerging traffic microsimulation a pplications; Volume 2: Papers
(cid:127) Innovations in traffic assignment and improve-
ments of forecast s peeds; Volume 2 contains 31 individual authored papers from
(cid:127) Institutional, monetary, staff, data, hardware, and the breakout sessions.
training resources needed to move innovative ap -
proaches to practice; a nd
(cid:127) The role of models in decision making in the con- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
temporary decision-m aking context.
This volume has been reviewed in draft form by indi-
The final versions of these papers are reproduced in viduals chosen for their diverse perspectives and techni-
Volume 2. cal expertise, in accordance with procedures approved
by the National Research Council’s Report Review
Committee. The purposes of this independent review
CONFERENCE FORMAT are to provide candid and critical comments that will
assist the institution in making its published report as
The conference opened with two workshops: Innovations sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets
in Practice and FTA Findings for Meaningful Forecasts. institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and
Two plenary sessions held at the beginning of the confer- responsiveness to the committee’s charge. The review
ence framed the underlying policy issues that drive model comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to
development and the issues associated with moving inno- protect the integrity of the deliberative p rocess.
vative modeling techniques into practice. Following these TRB thanks the following individuals for their review
plenary sessions, 11 breakout sessions were held. These of this report: Kenneth J. Cervenka, North Central
breakout sessions were largely based on the papers, Texas Council of Governments, Arlington, Texas;
although several non- paper-b ased presentations were Maren L. Outwater, Cambridge Systematics, Inc., Sam-
included in areas where the committee felt that additional mamish, Washington; and Erik E. Sabina, Denver
information was required to cover the topic. The break- Regional Council of Governments, Denver, C olorado.
out sessions were designed to provoke lively discussion. A Although the reviewers listed above provided many
final plenary session focused on the institutional issues to constructive comments and suggestions, they did not see
be addressed in moving research into p ractice. the final draft of the report before its release. The review
of the final draft of this report was overseen by C.
Michael Walton, University of Texas at Austin.
CONFERENCE PROCEEDINGS FORMAT Appointed by the National Research Council, he was
responsible for making certain that an independent
Volume 1: Session S ummaries examination of this report was carried out in accor-
dance with institutional procedures and that all review
This volume contains summaries of the plenary and comments were carefully c onsidered.
breakout sessions. The workshops are not summarized The conference planning committee thanks the TRB
because they were very informal training sessions. How- Transportation Demand Forecasting Committee, the
ever, a background paper used in Workshop 1, Innova- Traveler Behavior and Values Committee, the Travel
tions in Practice, has been included in Volume 2. The Survey Committee, and the Moving Activity-B ased
conference summary was prepared by Katherine Turn- Modeling into Practice Task Force. The leadership and
bull, Texas Transportation Institute. A list of all confer- members of these committees and task force were
ence participants can be found at the end of this volume. important contributors to the c onference.
Contents
OVERVIEW OF THE POLICY I SSUES .....................................................................................1
Welcome....................................................................................................................................................1
Chandra Bhat
Conference Participants and Agenda.........................................................................................................2
Ken Cervenka
Travel Demand Modeling and Public Policy.............................................................................................2
Frank Koppelman
State and Local Agency Perspectives on Policy Issues: One Size Does Not Fit All....................................4
Michael Morris
Federal Demands on Travel Demand Models............................................................................................6
Edward Weiner
MOVING INNOVATIVE MODELS INTO P RACTICE..........................................................................9
Travel Demand Forecasting Models: Raising Some Issues.........................................................................9
Martin W achs
Modeling Needs......................................................................................................................................10
Keith Lawton
Developing Detailed Projections of Impacts of Spatial Separation, Mitigation,
Supply and Demand, Infrastructure, and Strategies in a Volatile Economic, Social,
and Physical Environment.......................................................................................................................11
Edward Granzow
Innovations in Modeling.........................................................................................................................12
Brian Gardner
TOUR-B ASED MODELS.......................................................................................................................13
Design Features of A ctivity- Based Microsimulation Models for U.S. Metropolitan
Planning Organizations...........................................................................................................................13
Mark Bradley and John Bowman
New York Metropolitan Transportation Council T our-B ased Model Development................................14
Peter Vovsha and K uo-A nn Chiao
The San Francisco Model in Practice: Validation, Testing, and Application............................................15
Maren Outwater and Billy C harlton
Mid-O hio Regional Planning Commission T our-B ased Model Development..........................................17
Rebekah Anderson
Application of a Microsimulation Model for User Benefit Calculation in Transit Projects.....................17
Peter Vovsha
Application of the M id-O hio Regional Planning Commission Microsimulation Model:
Review of the New Starts Program.........................................................................................................18
David Schmitt
DATA AND SYNTHETIC POPULATIONS ..........................................................................................20
Processing the Denver Travel Survey to Support Tour-B ased Modeling:
Methods, Data, and Lessons Learned......................................................................................................20
Erik Sabina, Gregory Erhardt, Thomas Rossi, and John Coil
Validation of the Atlanta Regional Commission Population Synthesizer.................................................21
John Bowman and Guy R ousseau
Microsimulation of S ingle-F amily Residential Land Use for Market Equilibriums..................................22
Bin Zhou and Kara Kockelman
LAND USE FORECAST.........................................................................................................................24
The Case for Integrated Land Use–Transport Modeling.........................................................................24
J. Douglas H unt
Challenges in Integrated Land Use and Transportation Modeling:
Lessons from UrbanSim Experience........................................................................................................24
Paul Waddell
The Path to a Staged Implementation of Integrated Models...................................................................25
Becky Knudson
ACTIVITY-B ASED MODELS................................................................................................................27
Modeling Short-T erm Dynamics in A ctivity- Travel Patterns: From Aurora to Feathers..........................27
Theo Arentz, Harry Timmermans, Davy Janssens, and Geert W ets
Comprehensive Econometric Microsimulator for Daily A ctivity- Travel Patterns:
Recent Developments and Sensitivity Testing Results..............................................................................29
Chandra Bhat, Abdul Pinjari, Naveen Eluru, Ipek Sener, Rachel Copperman, Jessica Guo, and
Sivaramakrishnan Srinivasan
MATSIM/Planomat: A Microsimulation System of Activity Demand.....................................................30
Kay A xhausen
Recent Developments with the Prism- Constrained Activity- Travel Simulator and Integration
with the Dynamic Event- Based Network Simulator................................................................................31
Ram Pendyala, Ryuichi Kitamura, and Kaira K ikuchi