INNOVATION ECONOMICS This page intentionally left blank Robert D. Atkinson and Stephen J. Ezell Innovation Economics The Race for Global Advantage new haven and london Published with assistance from the foundation established in memory of Philip Hamilton McMillan of the Class of 1894, Yale College. Copyright © 2012 by Robert D. Atkinson and Stephen J. Ezell. All rights reserved. This book may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, including illustrations, in any form (beyond that copying permitted by Sections 107 and 108 of the U.S. Copyright Law and except by reviewers for the public press), without written permission from the publishers. Yale University Press books may be purchased in quantity for educational, business, or promotional use. For information, please e-mail [email protected] (U.S. offi ce) or [email protected] (U.K. offi ce). Set in Scala type by Westchester Book Group Printed in the United States of America Library of Congress Cata loging- in- Publication Data Atkinson, Robert D. Innovation economics : the race for global advantage / Robert D. Atkinson and Stephen J. Ezell. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 978- 0- 300- 16899- 0 (cloth : alk. paper) 1. Technological innovations— Economic aspects— United States. 2. Technological innovations— Economic aspects. 3. Diff usion of innovations— United States. 4. Industrial policy— United States. I. Ezell, Stephen J. II. Title. HC110.T4 A8187 2012 338'.0640973— dc23 2012006642 A cata logue record for this book is available from the British Library. This paper meets the requirements of ANSI/NISO Z39.48– 1992 (Permanence of Paper). 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 As Winston Churchill wrote, “Writing a book is an adventure. To begin with, it is a toy and an amusement; then it becomes a mistress, and then it becomes a master, and then a tyrant.” I want to extend my deepest appreciation to my wife Anne-Marie, son David, and daughter Claire, who were more than patient with me when I was struggling with my tyrant, instead of being the husband and Dad I would have liked to be. —RDA To my wife Lisa, for your enduring love, patience, and support; and to my parents, for a lifetime of inspiration. —SJE This page intentionally left blank CONTENTS 1 The Race for Global Innovation Advantage 1 2 Explaining U.S. Economic Decline 17 3 Learning from the Wrong Master: Lessons from U.K. Industrial Decline 57 4 Why Do So Many Refuse to See U.S. Structural Economic Decline? 85 5 What Are Innovation and Innovation Policy and Why Are They Important? 128 6 Crafting Innovation Policy to Win the Race 162 7 Cheating as a Way to Win the Race: Innovation Mercantilism as the Strategy of Choice 190 8 Winning the Race for Innovation Advantage with the Eight “I’s” of Innovation Policy 226 9 Why Don’t We Have More Innovation and Innovation Policy? 264 contents viii 10 Can Nations Overcome the Barriers to Innovation? 301 11 Creating a Robust Global Innovation System 338 Notes 367 Index 417 1 The Race for Global Innovation Advantage T he so-c alled Great Recession that convulsed the U.S. economy from the end of 2007 to the middle of 2009 has been offi cially over for several years, but for most Americans it certainly doesn’t feel that way. The offi cial unemployment rate still hovers around 8.5 per- cent, and if the part-t ime workers who would rather be working full-t ime were included, the rate would be almost double.1 In fact, the Congressional Bud get Offi ce reported in February 2012 that after three years with unem- ployment topping 8 percent, the United States has seen the longest period of high unemployment since the Great Depression, yet it still expects that unemployment will remain above 8 percent through 2014.2 Less than two- thirds of adults are in the labor force, a twenty- fi ve-y ear low.3 Worse, from 2000 to 2010, the United States did not add a single net new job.4 Both the federal budg et and trade defi cits remain unsustainably high. U.S. compa- nies are sitting on, rather than investing, close to $2 trillion in cash reserves. And some regions remain mired in recession, with many cities, towns, and even states on the brink of bankruptcy. By most accounts, this is all the result of an uncommonly severe but ul- timately survivable fi nancial crisis, akin to the destruction wrought by a 1