Innovation, Economic Change and Technology Policies: Proceedings of a Seminar on Technological Innovation held in Bonn, Federal Republic of Germany, April 5 to 9, 1976

348 Pages·1977·13.529 MB·English

by  V. Hauff (auth.), Karl A. Stroetmann (eds.)

Editor / Herausgeber:
Prof. Salomon Klaczko-Ryndziun, Frankfurt a. M.
Co-Editors / Mitherausgeber:
Prof. Ranan Banerji, Temple University, Philadelphia
Prof. JeromeA. Feldman, UniversityofRochester, Rochester
Prof. Mohamed Abdelrahman Mansour, ETH, Zürich
Prof. Ernst Billeter, Universität Fribourg, Fribourg
Prof. Christof Burckhardt, EPF, Lausanne
Prof. Ivar Ugi, Technische Universität München
Prof. King-Sun Fu, Purdue University, West Lafayette
Prof. Gerhard Fehl, R. W. T.H., Aachen
Dipl. -Ing. Ekkehard Brunn, Universität, Dortmund
Interdisciplinary Systems Research Interdisziplinäre Systemforschung
AnalysIs - Modelmg - SimulatIOn Analyse - Formaltslerung - Simulation
The system science has been developed from several Die System wissenschaft hat sich aus der Verbindung
scientific fields: control and communication theory, mehrerer Wissenschaftszweige entwickelt: der Rege
model theory and computer science. Nowadays it ful lungs-und Steuerungstheorie, der Kommunikationswis
fills the requirements which Norbert Wiener formulated senschaft, der Modelltheorie und der Informatik. Sie
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Research and practical application of system science noch ungenügend entwickelte Computerwissenschaft
involve works of specialists of system science as weil stark eingeschränkt war.
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now, the efficiency of this co-operation has been proved stemwissenschaft bezieht heute sowohl die Fachleute
in many theoretical and practical works. der Systemwissenschaft als auch die Spezialisten der
The series 'Interdisciplinary Systems Research' is in Anwendungsgebiete ein. In vielen Bereichen hat sich
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students and scientists involved in theoretical and ap Die Reihe «Interdisziplinäre Systemforschung» setzt
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about the most advanced state of the art in research, dem Praktiker über den neuesten Stand aus Lehre und
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cluding diverse mathematical modeling procedures Dieser Rahmen soll noch insofern erweitert werden, als
developed in many decades for the description and op die Reihe in ihren Publikationen die mathematischen
timization of systems. Modellierungsverfahren mit einbezieht. die in verschie
In contrast to the former tradition, which restricted the densten Wissenschaften in vielen Jahrzehnten zur
theoretical control and computer science to mathemati Beschreibung und Optimierung von Systemen erarbeitet
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phasizes the interdisciplinarity which system science Entgegen der früheren Tradition, in der die theoretische
has reached until now, and which tends to expand. City Regelungs-und Computerwissenschaft auf den Kreis
and regional planners, psychologists, physiologists, der Mathematiker, Physiker und Ingenieure beschränkt
economists, ecologists, food scientists, sociologists. war, liegt die Betonung dieser Reihe auf der Interdiszi
political scientists, lawyers, pedagogues, philologists, plinarität. die die System wissenschaft mittlerweile er
managers, diplomats, military scientists and other spe reicht hat und weiter anstrebt. Stadt-und Regionalpla
cialists are increasingly confronted or even charged ner, Psycholoflen, Physiologen, Betriebswirte, Volks
with problems of system science. wirtschafter, Okologen, Ernährungswissenschafter,
The ISR series will contain research reports - including Soziologen, Politologen, Juristen, Pädagogen, Mana
PhD-theses -Iecture notes, readers for lectures and ger, Diplomaten, Militärwissenschafter und andere Fach
proceedings of scientific symposia. The use of less ex leute sehen sich zunehmend mit Aufgaben der System
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sorgen.
ISR51
Inter'disciplinary Systems Research
Interdisziplinäre Systemforschung
Karl A.Stroetmann (Editor)
Innovation, Economic Change
and Technology Policies
Proceedings of a Seminar on
Technological Innovation
held in Bonn, Federal Republic of Germany,
April 5 to 9, 1976
sponsored by
Bundesministerium für Forschung und Technologie (BMFT),
Federal Republic of Germany
and
National Science Foundation (NSF),
United States of America
1977 Springer Basel AG
To Paul
CIP-Kurztitelaufnahme der Deutschen Bibliothek
Innovation, economic change and technology
policies: proceedings of a Seminar on
Technolog. Innovation held in Bonn, Federal
Republic of Germany, April 5 to 9, 1 976/
Karl A.Stroetmann (ed.). Sponsored by
Bundesministerium für Forschung u. Technologie,
(BMFT), Federal Republic of Germany and
National Science Foundation (NSF),
United States of America. — 1 .Aufl. — Basel,
Stuttgart: Birkhäuser, 1977.
(Interdisciplinary systems research; 51)
ISBN 978-3-7643-0977-0
NE: Stroetmann, Karl A. [Hrsg.]; Seminar on
Technological Innovation < 1 976, Bonn>
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a
retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic,
mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission
of the copyright owner.
© Springer Basel AG, 1977
Originally published by Birkhäuser Verlag Basel, 1977
ISBN 978-3-7643-0977-0 ISBN 978-3-0348-5867-0 (eBook)
DOI 10.1007/978-3-0348-5867-0
v
Preface
Technological progress is a major factor chaping economic growth. Today's standard
of living is a direct result of scientific advances and technical change in the
past. Since uncontrolled technological progress has become amenace to our well
being and may actually threat our survival, it is necessary to learn to manage
technological progress and direct innovative activities in such a manner that both
private wants and social needs playa dominant role in determining the rate and
direction of technical change. This requires a better understanding of the processes
of technical change, of their impact on and interrelationships with economic and
social developments and of the means and measures by which both individuals and
governments can influence and direct technological progress. To this end, the
Ninistry for Research and Technology of the Federal Republ ic of Germany and the
National Science Foundation of the Uni ted States of America invited a group of
scholars, corporate managers and civil servants to a one week seminar on "Technolo
gical Innovation". The seminar took place in April, 1976, in Bonn, Federal Republ ic
of Germany. Most papers presented at this meeting were specifically prepared for the
seminar. With this volume, they are made available to a larger audience to further
stimulate discussion not only among scholars interested in innovation research and
technology policy questions but also among managers, union officials, civil ser
vants and others directly or indirectly concerned with and affected by technical
change.
+ + +
As an introduction to the seminar, V. Hau f f of the German Federal Ministry for
Research and Technology welcomes the participants in Bonn and briefly outlines the
background, the purpose and the results expected of the meeting.
This is followed by Workshop I deal ing with "The Process of Technological Innovation"
at the firm level. J am e s U t t erb a c k , in an introduction to the general
topic, reviews major innovation research results, proceeds to generalize them into a
dynamic model of process and product innovation by firms, and discusses some implica
tions for public policy. - The paper by L u i t pol d U h 1 man n presents
first results of an empirical study on technical innovation processes; the research
was undertaken jointly by four research groups. 218 innovations in 126 enterprises
in the Federal Republic of Germany, Great Britain and Sweden have been studied. -
R 0 y Rot h w e 1 1 and M 0 r r isT e u b a 1 take a second look at pro
ject SAPPHO, a study of successful and unsuccessful innovations. The first part of
their paper describes the methodology and scope of the project and briefly presents
important results and conclusions. In the second part, the SAPPHO results are re
organized and analysed in the light of more recent innovation studies undertaken at
the Falk Institute in Israel. - R 0 b e r t G e e addresses the R&D management de
cision problem of how to allocate limited resources to continuing or proposed re
search programmes in an industrial setting. A concept of economic opportunity is
developed and a simple quantitative selection criterion proposed. - Finally,
Hel 9 a E c h t e rho f f - S e ver i t t presents data on R&D expenditures
in business enterprises in the Federal Republic of Germany and analyses them with
particular reference to small and medium-sized firms. For comparison with expendi
tures by large corporations, absolute figures on R&D expenditures by smaller firms
are of only limited value. Index numbers are more meaningful but can be misleading
unless used with ca re as is demonstrated through several examples.
Preface VI
worksho~ 11 is concerned with "The Economics of Technological Innovation". As back
ground or the discussion of innovation-related problems and policy questions at the
macro economic level, Ha n s B Ü 1 0 w identifies major recent changes in inter
national socio-economic patterns and the impact these are expected to have on the
further development of the international division of labour; repercussions on the
industrial structure of the Federal Republic of Germany and on employment in diffe
rent branches of industry are analysed and consequences for the promotion of tech
nological innovations in industrialized countries derived. - Sie 9 f r i e d
L a n 9 e and his collaborators point at the unsolved scientific problems of how to
link technological development to macro economic change. In addition, they present
a pragmatic approach to the problem of identifying new technologies which may have
a significant effect on economic change. Further research in this area is urgently
needed. - E.-J. H 0 r n compares the performance of German industry with that of
other industrialized countries regarding their technological innovation capabilities
and their accomplishments in international trade. A marked shift in the pattern of
camparative advantage of the West German economy towards the production of new tech
nologies and of new goods is being observed, and implications for an active govern
mental innovation policy to promote structural change in industry are derived. -
L 0 w e 1 1 S tee 1 e looks at international technology transfer fram a corpo
rate point of view and points at some of the easily overlooked but nevertheless ex
tremely important determinants of a successful transfer of this kind. -
H 0 war d N aso n stresses the importance of refining the perceptions of
barriers and of stimulators for technical innovation, taking into account the com
plexities involved and the spectrum of interests, needs and basic positions, all
relative to the public interest.
Workshop IrI "Government Pol icies and Technological Innovation" focusses on the
role of government policies and their influences on innovation. The first two
papers provide a broad overview over the present state of the art. - Rod ger
N 0 1 1 summarizes the major conclusions derived from an extensive research project
addressed to the question of whether the existing state of knowledge provides an
adequate base of information for making decisions about public policies that affect
technical change. Though a host of often preliminary propositions can be derived,
our knowledge is very limited and numerous opportunities for further research can
be identified. - L e 0 n a r d L e der man n presents a summary of same of
the research and analysis performed for the National Science Foundations's R&D Assess
ment Program. Guided by the needs of government policymakers, this programme seeks
information and analysis which will aid decisionmaking affecting R&D and technolo
gical innovation. - These two summary papers are followed by an essay of
R ich a r d N e 1 s 0 n and S i d n e y W i n t e r who, by attempting to
sketch same directions that would seem fruitfull to follow if we are to achieve a
theoretical structure that can be helpful in guiding thinking about policy, try to
break new ground. - Then T. Gau d i n presents some provoking statements on the
usefulness of economic research on innovation and stresses the importance of in
stitutional analysis for understanding innovation processes.
The next three papers discuss innovation policies in different countries.
J a m e s U t t erb a c k and his colleagues have collected data on successful,
unsuccessful and on-going innovation projects in five industries in Europe and in
Japan in order to examine relationships between environmental influences and the
sources and outcomes of these projects. Major research results are summarized and
compared with earlier research, and the impact of different government policies eva
luated. - Hel m a r K r u p p provides a critical overview and analysis of the
Preface VII
innovation policy of the Government of the Federal Republic of Germany leading to
recommendations on. policy formulation, on possible improvements of policy instru
ments and on policy implementation. - The paper by Wal t erZ e 9 v e 1 d
reviews the development of government policy in the Netherlands aimed at industrial
development.
Patent policies and their impact on technological innovations are the focus of the
following three papers. F. M. S c her e r presents a concise summary of theo
retical issues and a discussion of how anti trust and patent policies affect the
pace of innovation in industry. - Kar 1 0 p p e n 1 ä n der looks at the
relationship between patent po1icies and technica1 progress in the Federa1 Repub1ic
of Germany. Extensive data on patent activities of industria1 firms were co11ected
totest various hypotheses about the effects of patent protection on the innovation
process. - The paper by A. Ger s t e n f e 1 d and J. Pos t reviews a
unique effort to promote inventions within organizations through the Employees'
Inventions La\~ of West Germany. The operation of the 1aw is described and its im
pact critica11y eva1uated.
In the final paper of this vo1ume, V. Hau f f acknow1edges that research has
so far not been ab1e to deve10p a comprehensive theoretica1 framework as a basis
for po1icy decisions - as the discussions at the seminar have shown. For scien
tists this presents achallenge; for po1iticians faced dai1y with the need to
make po1icy decisions, this is a high1y uncomfortab1e situation. He proceeds to
identify major problem areas the German Government has to cope with and sketches
the out1ines of a techno10gy po1icy to affect structura1 change in industry through
the se1ective promotion of innovations.
+ + +
Obtaining we11-written English versions of those papers that were origina11y
written in German, solving copyright problems and negotiating with pub1ishers was
a time consuming and sometimes tedious task. I am gratefu1 to all contributors who
he1ped - by shortening and revising their original papers - in preparing not on1y
a concise overview over the seminar but also a first - though necessari1y incom
p1ete - introduction into the many aspects of innovation research. I hope that the
de1ay in pub1ishing the seminar proceedings is made up for bya more readab1e
vo1ume of interest to a greater audience.
We owe a debt to the Bundesministerium für Forschung und Technologie and the
National Science Foundation for sponsering the conference. In addition, special
thanks go to the secretaries, particu1arly Ms. Ingrid Haas, who expertly typed,
retyped and corrected the manuscript. We are also gratefu1 to the Birkhäuser Ver
lag for making this pub1ication possib1e.
The views expressed in the papers are those of the authors and do not necessari1y
ref1ect the views of the organization with which they are affi1iated or the spon
sors of the conference.
May 1977
Kar1 A. Stroetmann
TABLE OF CONTENTS VI II
Page
Preface V
INTRODUCTION: WELCOMING ADDRESS
V. Hauff 1
Workshop I: THE PROCESS OF TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION
1.1 RECENT FINDINGS AND HYPOTHESES ABOUT THE DYNAMICS OF PRODUCT AND
PROCESS CHANGE
James M. Utterback 7
1.2 THE INNOVATION PROCESS IN INDUSTRIALIZED COUNTRIES - SOME EMPIRICAL
RESULTS
Luitpold Uhlmann 21
1.3 SAPPHO REVISITED: A RE-APPRAISAL OF THE SAPPHO DATA
Roy Rothwell and ~1orris Teubal 39
1.4 RESEARCH PRIORITIES: ALLOCATION OR RESOURCES AMONG R&D PROGRAMS
Robert E. Gee 61
1. 5 EXPENDITURES FOR RESEARCH AND DEVELOPt4ENT IN BUSINESS INTERPRISES
OF THE FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF GERMANY IN 1971 AND 1973
Helga Echterhoff-Severitt 71
Workshop 11: THE ECONOMICS OF TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION
2.1 INTERNATIONAL DIVISION OF LABOUR AND CHANGES IN THE INDUSTRIAL
STRUCTURE: CONSEQUENCES FOR TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATIONS IN GERMANY
Hans Bülow 95
2.2 NEW TECHNOLOGIES AND THEIR IMPLICATIONS FOR ECONOMIC CHANGE IN THE
FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF GERMANY
S. Lange, H. Rempp, G.F. Schäfer, H.J. Kahlenberg 117
2.3 INTERNATIONAL TRADE AND TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION: THE GERMAN
POSITION VIS-A-VIS OTHER DEVELOPED MARKET ECONOMIES
Irnst-Jürgen Horn 129
2.4 THE ECONOMICS OF INTERNATIONAL TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER: A CORPORATE VIEW
Lowell W. Steele 149
2.5 AMERICAN PERCEPTIONS OF BARRIERS TO INNOVATION
Howard K. Nason 159
TABLE OF CONTENTS IX
Workshop 111: GOVERNMENT POLICIES AND TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION
3.1 GOVERNMENT POLICY AND TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION: WHERE 00 WE STAND
AND WHERE SHOULD WE GO?
Roger G. Noll 169
3.2 TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION AND FEDERAL GOVERNMENT POLICY - RESEARCH
AND ANALYSIS OF THE OFFICE OF NATIONAL R&D ASSESSMENT
Leonard L. Lederman 187
3.3 IN SEARCH OF A USEFUL THEORY OF INNOVATION
Richard R. Nelson and Sidney G. Winter 215
3.4 INNOVATION AND INSTITUTIONS
T. Gaudin 247
3.5 THE PROCESS OF INNOVATION IN FIVE INDUSTRIES IN EUROPE AND JAPAN
James M. Utterback, Thomas J. Allen, J. Herbert Holloman and
Marvin A. Sirbu, Jr. 251
3.6 THE INNOVATION POLICY OF THE FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF GERMANY - NOTES
AND RECOMMENDATIONS
Helmar Krupp 267
3.7 INDUSTRIALIZATION POLICY, INDUSTRY POLICY AND INNOVATION POLICY
IN THE NETHERLANDS
W. Zegveld 287
3.8 ANTITRUST AND PATENT POLICIES
F.M. Scherer 293
3.9 PATENT POLICIES AND TECHNICAL PROGRESS IN THE FEDERAL REPUBLIC
OF GERMANY
Karl Heinrich Oppenländer 307
3.10 POLICY AND TECHNOLOGY: THE EMPLOYED INVENTOR
A. Gerstenfeld and J. Post 331
3.11 TOWARDS A TECHNOLOGY POLICY TO AFFECT STRUCTURAL CHANGE IN INDUSTRY:
A GERMAN OUTLOOK
V. Hauff 343
Addresses of Authors 349