Topics in Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality Adrian V. Gheorghe Marcelo Masera Polinpapilinho F. Katina Editors Infranomics Sustainability, Engineering Design and Governance Topics in Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality Volume 24 Series editor Adrian V. Gheorghe For furthervolumes: http://www.springer.com/series/6653 TOPICS IN SAFETY, RISK, RELIABILITY AND QUALITY Volume 24 Editor Adrian V. Gheorghe, Old Dominion University Norfolk, VA, USA Editorial Advisory Board P. Sander, Technical University of Eindhoven, The Netherlands D. C. Barrie, Lakehead University, Ontario, ON, Canada R. Leitch, Royal Military College of Science (Cranfield), Shriverham, UK AimsandScope.Fundamentalquestionswhicharebeingaskedthesedaysofallproducts, processes and services witheverincreasing frequency are: What istherisk? Howsafe isit? Howreliableisit? Howgoodisthequality? Howmuchdoes itcost? Thisisparticularlytrueasthegovernment,industry,public,customersandsocietybecome increasingly informedandarticulate. In practice none of the three topics can be considered in isolation as they all interact andinterrelateinverycomplexandsubtlewaysandrequirearangeofdisciplinesfortheir description and application; they encompass the social, engineering and physical sciences and quantitativedisciplines includingmathematics, probability theory andstatistics. The major objective of the series is to provide a series of authoritative texts suitable for academic taught courses, reference purposes, post graduate and other research and practi- tionersgenerally working or stronglyassociated with areassuch as: Safety Assessment andManagement Emergency Planning RiskManagement Reliability Analysis andAssessment VulnerabilityAssessment and Management Quality Assuranceand Management Special emphasis is placed on texts with regard to readability, relevance, clarity, applic- ability,rigour and generally soundquantitativecontent. Adrian V. Gheorghe Marcelo Masera • Polinpapilinho F. Katina Editors Infranomics Sustainability, Engineering Design and Governance 123 Editors Adrian V.Gheorghe MarceloMasera Polinpapilinho F.Katina InstitutefortheProtection and Security Engineering Management andSystems of theCitizen Engineering Joint Research Center Old DominionUniversity Petten Norfolk,VA The Netherlands USA ISSN 1566-0443 ISSN 2215-0285 (electronic) ISBN 978-3-319-02492-9 ISBN 978-3-319-02493-6 (eBook) DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-02493-6 SpringerChamHeidelbergNewYorkDordrechtLondon LibraryofCongressControlNumber:2013954028 (cid:2)SpringerInternationalPublishingSwitzerland,InderscienceEnterprisesLimited, SpringerScience+BusinessMediaDordrecht(outsidetheUSA)2014 Thisworkissubjecttocopyright.AllrightsarereservedbythePublisher,whetherthewholeorpartof the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation,broadcasting,reproductiononmicrofilmsorinanyotherphysicalway,andtransmissionor informationstorageandretrieval,electronicadaptation,computersoftware,orbysimilarordissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. 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Printedonacid-freepaper SpringerispartofSpringerScience+BusinessMedia(www.springer.com) Preface We define Infranomics as a body of discipline supporting analysis and decision making regarding modern societal vexing issues of sustainability, asset manage- ment,energyandsafety,ethics,education,andengineeringdesign.Whileitisinits infancy,Infranomicsisproposedasathesisenablingbetterdecisionmakinginan increasingambiguous,complex,emergent,interdependent,anduncertainworld.As modern society contends with rapid technological changes, socioeconomic institutional changes, increased globalization, and scarcity of resources, decision makers(i.e.,policymakersandprivateentityoperators,andresearchers)arefaced with a daunting task of ensuring the well-being of public health, security, and economy.Sincenonationhasunlimitedresources,thetimeisripeforadiscipline that supports analysis and decision making to increase anticipation in an increasingly uncertain world. In the next 25 works contributing to this book, we illuminate Infranomics in different aspects of modern society. The paper by Gheorghe et al., serves as the introduction to this volume. It addresses the interdisciplinary format of Infra- nomics, highlighting some potential initial areas of applications, and the category ofanalyticalinstrumentsadequatelyempoweredtodealwiththecomplexdomain of the new body of discipline. Part I contains three papers discussing sustainability of infrastructures in modern society. How can we create harmony between people, the planet, and profit? The paper by Emile Broesterhuizen et al., provides a tentative solution to this problem by examining ports, with consideration of clients and contractor vantagepoints.Continuingthethemeofsustainabilityinportsisthepaperwritten by Martijn P.C. de Jong et al. They provide an alternative design for open water ports and consider coastal impact as well as advantages and disadvantages of the proposeddesign.ThispartconcludeswithworkdonebyPoonamTanejaetal.,and discusses the role offlexibility in port development. They argue that flexibility is instrumental in achieving long-term financial viability and reduces environmental and social impact of the port infrastructures in uncertain economic times. Part II contains three works discussing asset management. Kerry Brown et al., suggestthatstrategicmanagementofassetsrequirescorporategovernance,policy, objectives, and interagency collaboration. A framework that enables asset acqui- sition,utilization,andmaintenanceforstrategicdevelopment ispresented.Martin Laue et al., operationalize the various levels of the asset management framework v vi Preface presented in previous work. This work considers how asset management can be embedded in organizations through the temporal, organizational, and spatial dimensions. We conclude this Part II with a section on multicriteria decision making for real estate portfolio. Monique Arkesteijn and Ruud Binnekamp show how measure asset performance to enable decision making based on decision makers’ criteria and preferences. In Part III, the book discusses safety and energy management topics. In an unpredictable world, we must develop mechanisms that can be used to alarm citizens in harm’s way. However, paper by Helena Jagtman shows current approaches has limitations. Framework to enable better communication is devel- oped based on a case study. Paper by Masaki Nishimori et al., discusses policy design for disaster-hit areas. Using the example at Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant, authors present a framework of system design by holistically incorporating requirements stakeholders’ requirements interactively and bottom- upcommunications.Theworldlargestoil-importsisnow,China.Howdidweget here and what does the future hold? Yang Saini et al., discusses these questions and how these changes could impact transportation sector. PartIVispurposefullyentitledequity,ethics,andinfrastructurestoprojectthe image that Infranomics involved morals and policy. First, Neelke Doorn applies thisconcepttowater.Thestatisticsonwater-bornediseases,peoplelivingwithout safe water, and flooding are staggering. To address these issues, Neelke Doorn suggests that modern society integrate governance into water systems. Kien To and John Fernández present a compelling need for designing and implementing low-emitting carbon cites in modern society-based alternative urban technologies enabling efficient use of scarce resources. This part concludes with new and exciting developments in the Engineering Systems Division at MIT concerning instilling motivation to future researcher in solve complex and sociotechnical systems problems. ModelingandsimulationisthesubjectoffivecontributionsinPartV.Andreas Tolk urges for need for modeling and simulation known as Serious Gaming to enable manage systems of systems. An experimental game based on systems dynamicisbuilttoexplorethequestionofsustainabilityandgreenhouseemissions for built environments. The procedure and the results of the game simulation model are provided in the work of Iman Mohammed and Erik Pruyt. Work by Todd Schenk is specifically written to suggest an innovative way (Role Play Simulation) to addressing hazards and threats impacting performance of critical infrastructures. To conclude this paper, Sertaç Oruç and Scott Cunningham introducepropositionsregardingengineeringdesign.Inthiswork,thecaseismade for multi-actor approach that emphasizes game theoretical modeling for optimi- zation in engineering design. Governance enables regulation of social systems using variety of mechanisms for a better society and is the subject of four contributions in Part VI. First, Behnido Calida and Charles Keating give a new vision on the issues related to governance in the context of complex systems exposed to uncertain and ambig- uous environments. Many initiatives fail not because of incompetence of Preface vii stakeholders, rather Otto Kroesen and David Ndegwah suggest there is a need to understand ambiguities involved between cultural clash between nations and pri- orities. This paper explores governance in technology transfer in East Africa. Third, Fei Xue et al., introduce a systematic concept of structural analysis for power grids security assessment to enable governance. Authors provide new measures for criticality to enable ranking for sake of critical component surviv- ability.Fourth,theworkdonebyAriaIwasawaetal.,usesSurrogateWorthTrade- off Method to select technology for design of new systems in a Multiobjective, Mixed-Discrete Nonlinear Programming problem. The book concludes with Part VII comprises four papers contributing to learning and knowledge dissemination within the larger context of Infranomics. First, Christopher Magee et al., describe historical roots of Engineering Systems and methods used in the field at MIT. Next, the researchers at ODU and Uni- versitateaPolitehnicaBucharest,Romaniaprovideamethodologythatcanbeused toassesresilienceofacademicprograms.Thismethodologycanbeusedtoassess structural complexity and vulnerability of academic problems meant to address modernsocietymostvexingissues.ThepaperbyHugoPriemusexploresthecase for risk analysis and risk management in large-scale infrastructure project in the Netherlands. This paper illustrates how academic theory can be used to advice strongerorientationtowardflexibilityandtheidentificationofviableoptions.The concluding paper is about a general framework, Actor-Option Framework, which can beused tomodellarge-scale systemsintransition,toenable understandingin different transition cases and integration. As it is becoming increasingly evident that the space for technology-driven solutions to twenty-first century issues is diminishing, there is a need for multi- disciplinary approach involving technical and soft elements of human social, organizational/managerial and policy, and political elements. The discipline of Infranomics offers an initiating collaborative effort supporting analysis and deci- sion making in our modern society. Norfolk, Virginia, May 2013 Adrian V. Gheorghe Acknowledgment This book would not have been possible without the help from numerous people. OuracknowledgmentsareindebtedtoProf.MargotWeijnenofDelftUniversityof Technology (The Netherlands) whose interests in Infranomics is demonstrated in years of research at and before the foundation of Next Generation Infrastructures Foundation in The Netherlands. We also acknowledge Prof. Paulien Herder of DelftUniversityofTechnology(TheNetherlands)withoutwhomthisbookwould not have been possible. Prof. Herder was instrumental in organizing the CESUN 2012InternationalEngineeringSystemsSymposiumconferenceinwhichsomeof the authors contribute immensely to this text. WearethankfultoNathalieJacobsandCynthiaFeenstraofSpringerPublishing Company for their encouragement in publishing the first textbook of this topic. We would like to extend our gratitude to friends and colleagues around the globe whose input improved initial drafts of this book. ix Contents Infranomics: A Discipline-of-Discipline for the XXIst Century . . . . . . 1 Adrian V. Gheorghe and Marcelo Masera Part I Infrastructure and Sustainability Sustainable Procurement for Port Infrastructure Projects . . . . . . . . . 11 Emile Broesterhuizen, Tiedo Vellinga, Poonam Taneja and Linda Docters van Leeuwen Open Water Ports: Possibilities and Challenges for Container Terminals . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 Martijn P. C. de Jong, Otto M. Weiler and Jan-Joost Schouten Role of Flexibility in Sustainable Port Development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41 Poonam Taneja, Tiedo Vellinga and Robin Ros Part II Asset Management An Integrated Approach to Strategic Asset Management . . . . . . . . . . 57 Kerry Brown, Martin Laue, Javier Tafur, Muhammad Nateque Mahmood, Pascal Scherrer and Robyn Keast Integrated Strategic Asset Management: Frameworks and Dimensions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75 Martin Laue, Kerry Brown, Pascal Scherrer and Robyn Keast Real Estate Portfolio Decision Making. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89 Monique H. Arkesteijn and Ruud Binnekamp xi