Informing an Effective Response to Climate Change (National Research Council)

347 Pages·2010·25.38 MB·English

by  America's Climate Choices: Panel on Informing Effective Decisions and Actions Related to Climate Change

http://www.nap.edu/catalog/12784.html
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Informing an Effective Response to Climate Change

America's Climate Choices: Panel on Informing Effective

Decisions and Actions Related to Climate Change

ISBN: 0-309-14595-3, 348 pages, 7 x 10, (2010)

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Informing an Effective Response to Climate Change
http://www.nap.edu/catalog/12784.html
Informing an Effective Response
to Climate Change
America’s Climate Choices:
Panel on Informing Effective Decisions and Actions Related to Climate Change
Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate
Division on Earth and Life Studies
Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Informing an Effective Response to Climate Change
http://www.nap.edu/catalog/12784.html
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS • 500 Fifth Street, N.W. • Washington, DC 20001
NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of
the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National
Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The
members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special compe-
tences and with regard for appropriate balance.
This study was supported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration under
contract number DG133R08CQ0062. Any opinions, fndings, conclusions, or recommendations
expressed in this material are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily refect the views of
the sponsor.
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Cover images:
Far left: © City of Palo Alto
Middle left: courtesy of National Aeronautics and Space Administration
Middle right: Photo by Scott Bauer courtesy of National Wildlife Refuge
Far right: courtesy of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Copyright 2010 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Printed in the United States of America
Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Informing an Effective Response to Climate Change
http://www.nap.edu/catalog/12784.html
The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonproft, self-perpetuating society of distin-
guished scholars engaged in scientifc and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of
science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter
granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the
federal government on scientifc and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the
National Academy of Sciences.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National
Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its
administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences
the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also
sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and
research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of
the National Academy of Engineering.
The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to se-
cure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy
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The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to
associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of fur-
thering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general
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Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council.
www.national-academies.org
Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Informing an Effective Response to Climate Change
http://www.nap.edu/catalog/12784.html
Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Informing an Effective Response to Climate Change
http://www.nap.edu/catalog/12784.html
AMERICA’S CLIMATE CHOICES:
PANEL ON INFORMING EFFECTIVE DECISIONS AND
ACTIONS RELATED TO CLIMATE CHANGE
DIANA LIVERMAN (Co-Chair), University of Arizona, Tucson and Oxford University,
United Kingdom.
PETER RAVEN (Co-Chair), Missouri Botanical Garden, St. Louis
DANIEL BARSTOW, Challenger Center for Space Science Education, Alexandria,
Virginia
ROSINA M. BIERBAUM, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor
DANIEL W. BROMLEY, University of Wisconsin-Madison
ANTHONY LEISEROWITZ, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut
ROBERT J. LEMPERT, The RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, California
JIM LOPEZ,* Department of Housing and Urban Development
EDWARD L. MILES, University of Washington, Seattle
BERRIEN MOORE, III, Climate Central, Princeton, New Jersey
MARK D. NEWTON, Dell, Inc., Round Rock, Texas
VENKATACHALAM RAMASWAMY, National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration, Princeton, New Jersey
RICHARD RICHELS, Electric Power Research Institute, Inc., Washington, D.C.
DOUGLAS P. SCOTT, Illinois Environmental Protection Agency, Springfeld
KATHLEEN J. TIERNEY, University of Colorado at Boulder
CHRIS WALKER, The Carbon Trust LLC, New York, New York
SHARI T. WILSON, Maryland Department of the Environment, Baltimore
NRC Staff
MARTHA McCONNELL, Study Director
LAUREN M. BROWN, Research Associate
RICARDO PAYNE, Program Assistant
DAVID REIDMILLER, Christine Mirzayan Science and Technology Fellow
*Asterisks denote members who resigned during the study process.

Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Informing an Effective Response to Climate Change
http://www.nap.edu/catalog/12784.html
Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Informing an Effective Response to Climate Change
http://www.nap.edu/catalog/12784.html
Foreword: About America’s
Climate Choices
onvened by the National Research Council in response to a request from
Congress (P.L. 110-161), America’s Climate Choices is a suite of fve coordinated
Cactivities designed to study the serious and sweeping issues associated with
global climate change, including the science and technology challenges involved, and
to provide advice on the most effective steps and most promising strategies that can
be taken to respond.
The Committee on America’s Climate Choices is responsible for providing overall
direction, coordination, and integration of the America’s Climate Choices suite of activi-
ties and ensuring that these activities provide well-supported, action-oriented, and
useful advice to the nation. The committee convened a Summit on America’s Climate
Choices on March 30-31, 2009, to help frame the study and provide an opportunity for
high-level input on key issues. The committee is also charged with writing a fnal re-
port that builds on four panel reports and other sources to answer the following four
overarching questions:
• What short-term actions can be taken to respond effectively to climate
change?
• What promising long-term strategies, investments, and opportunities could be
pursued to respond to climate change?
• What are the major scientifc and technological advances needed to better
understand and respond to climate change?
• What are the major impediments (e.g., practical, institutional, economic, ethi-
cal, intergenerational, etc.) to responding effectively to climate change, and
what can be done to overcome these impediments?
The Panel on Limiting the Magnitude of Future Climate Change was charged to
describe, analyze, and assess strategies for reducing the net future human infuence
on climate. The panel’s report focuses on actions to reduce domestic greenhouse gas
emissions and other human drivers of climate change, such as changes in land use, but
also considers the international dimensions of limiting climate change.
The Panel on Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change was charged to describe,
analyze, and assess actions and strategies to reduce vulnerability; increase adaptive
ii
Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Informing an Effective Response to Climate Change
http://www.nap.edu/catalog/12784.html
F O R E W O R D
capacity; improve resiliency; and promote successful adaptation to climate change in
different regions, sectors, systems, and populations. The panel’s report draws on a wide
range of sources and case studies to identify lessons learned from past experiences,
promising current approaches, and potential new directions.
The Panel on Advancing the Science of Climate Change was charged to provide a
concise overview of past, present, and future climate change, including its causes and its
impacts, and to recommend steps to advance our current understanding, including new
observations, research programs, next-generation models, and the physical and human
assets needed to support these and other activities. The panel’s report focuses on the
scientifc advances needed both to improve our understanding of the intergrated-cli-
mate system and to devise more effective responses to climate change.
The Panel on Informing Effective Decisions and Actions Related to Climate Change
was charged to describe and assess different activities, products, strategies, and tools
for informing decision makers about climate change and helping them plan and
execute effective, integrated responses. This report describes the different types of
climate change-related decisions and actions being taken at various levels and in dif-
ferent sectors and regions; and it develops a framework, tools, and practical advice for
ensuring that the best available technical knowledge about climate change is used to
inform these decisions and actions.
America’s Climate Choices builds on an extensive foundation of previous and ongoing
work, including National Research Council reports, assessments from other national
and international organizations, the current scientifc literature, climate action plans
by various entities, and other sources. More than a dozen boards and standing com-
mittees of the National Research Council were involved in developing the study, and
many additional groups and individuals provided additional input during the study
process. Outside viewpoints were also obtained via public events and workshops
(including the Summit), invited presentations at committee and panel meetings, and
comments received through the study website, http://americasclimatechoices.org.
Collectively, the America’s Climate Choices suite of activities involve more than 90 volun-
teers from a range of communities including academia, various levels of government,
business and industry, other nongovernmental organizations, and the international
community. Responsibility for the fnal content of each report rests solely with the
authoring panel and the National Research Council. However, the development of each
report inluded input from and interactions with members of all fve study groups; the
membership of each group is listed in Appendix E.
iii
Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Informing an Effective Response to Climate Change
http://www.nap.edu/catalog/12784.html

Preface
ow can America make more informed decisions about climate change? This
was the question asked of the Panel on Informing Effective Decisions and
HActions Related to Climate Change. We were challenged to identify the op-
portunities and challenges associated with informing effective decisions and actions,
including the different activities, products, strategies, and tools for informing decision
makers about climate change and helping them plan and execute effective, integrated
responses. We were asked to describe the different types of climate change-related
decisions and actions being taken at various levels and in different sectors and regions
and to review frameworks and tools for ensuring that the best available technical
knowledge about climate change is used to inform these decisions and actions.
Our frst challenge was to decide how to set the limits of our panel report given the
broad statement of task, the limited time, and the potential for overlap with the work
of the three other America’s Climate Choices panels. We also took into account input
received during the public discussion of the study, especially suggestions about the
signifcance of looking at decision makers beyond the Federal government and about
the importance of communication and education. We soon recognized that an in-
formed and effective national response to climate change requires that the widest
possible range of decisions makers—public and private, national and local—have ac-
cess to up-to-date and reliable information about current and future climate change,
the impacts of such changes, the vulnerability to these changes, and the response
strategies for reducing emissions and implementing adaptation. We also acknowl-
edged the importance of information that is needed to assess whether the decisions
or responses are successful or should be revised.
We began our work with refections about America’s ability to face grand and com-
plex challenges in the past, where a record of success and learning from experience
provided us with an optimistic start to thinking about informing climate choices. We
then examined the decisions and actions that have already been taken in relation to
climate, who was making the decisions, and what tools and information they were
using or lacking. Responding to our task statement we then turned to an assessment
of frameworks and tools for making climate-related decisions and identifed two key
types of information services that are needed in making decisions about climate
change: (1) information about climate, climate impacts, and adaptation, and (2) infor-
mation about greenhouse gas emissions and their management. We recognized that
ix
Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.