Information systems : crossroads for organization, management, accounting and engineering ; ItAIS: The Italian Association for Information Systems PDF
Preview Information systems : crossroads for organization, management, accounting and engineering ; ItAIS: The Italian Association for Information Systems
Intelligence Gathering, Analysis & Dissemination Proceedings from the 2008–2009 Forum Series Copyright © 2009 by the Rector and Visitors of the University of Virginia www.millercenter.org Intelligence Gathering, Analysis & Dissemination George H.Gilliam & Cristina Lopez-Gottardi Chao, editors Proceedings from the 2008–2009 Forum Series Presented by C ONTENTS 4 Acknowledgements 6 Introduction 12 A Short History of the Business of Intelligence Frederick P.Hitz 32 The Complexities of Intelligence Robert Kennedy 52 Intelligence Analysis and Dissemination Thomas Fingar 74 Interagency Relationships in the Intelligence Community Philip Mudd 96 Intelligence and Espionage:The Lessons of Tehran and Afghanistan Howard Hart 118 The NSAfrom 9/11 to the Eavesdropping on America James Bamford 138 Suicide Terrorism AssafMoghadam 160 Dealing with the New Iranian Superpower Robert Baer Miller Center ofPublic Affairs, University ofVirginia, Charlottesville,Virginia. INTELLIGENCE GATHERING,ANALYSIS AND DISSEMINATION 3 A CKNOWLEDGEMENTS T he events of 9/11 which led to a restructuring of the nation’s intelligence community inspired scholars at the University of Virginia’s Miller Center of Public Affairs to assess U.S.national security and intelligence capabilities. The Center’s scholars are deeply indebted to the contributors of this volume for giving of their time,valuable insights and for sharing their varied and rich experiences with us.In particular,we thank Frederick P.Hitz and Howard Hart who each played an integral part in the development of the series, and—more importantly—for their years of service and sacrifice to our nation. We also thank the Miller Center’s Director,Governor Gerald L.Baliles, for his intellectual curiosity and constant support of the Forum program. The Miller Center of Public Affairs is a leading public policy institution. Through its many academic,public and policy programs it serves as a national meeting place where engaged citizens,scholars,students,policy makers and media representatives gather to research,reflect and report upon issues of national importance to the governance of the United States,with a particular emphasis on the role of the Executive Branch.This volume, focused on the business of intelligence gathering,analysis and dissemination, is a product of this process.Its contributors offer thoughtful reflections and policy recommendations regarding the challenges that have faced the U.S.intelligence community since 9/11. Converting the program agenda suggested by Hitz and Hart to Forums, and,finally into this published volume took the effort and coordination of numerous individuals.We are grateful to Shirley K.Burke of the Miller Center for her assistance coordinating all logistical aspects of the Forum program.We thank Anne Chesnut for the publication design,and Rebecca Barns and our student asssistant Sarah Koczot for their careful eyes in editing the finished product.Finally,the Miller Center Forum program and 4 MILLER CENTER of PUBLIC AFFAIRS The John and Rosemary Galbraith Forum Room the publication of this volume would not be possible without significant financial support,and for this we thank the Miller Center Foundation and our loyal friends whose generous philanthropy supports all that we do. George H.Gilliam Assistant Director for Public Programs and Chair ofthe Forum Program Cristina Lopez-Gottardi Chao Assistant Chair ofthe Forum Program Miller Center of Public Affairs University of Virginia Charlottesville,Virginia Fall 2009 INTELLIGENCE GATHERING,ANALYSIS AND DISSEMINATION 5 I NTRODUCTION I n the aftermath of the attacks of September 11,2001,the National Commission on Terrorist Attacks Upon the United States (“9/11 Commission”) released a critique of the U.S.intelligence community which brought to light the complexity of the business of intelligence gathering,analysis and dissemination. It also outlined a number of areas that required restructuring to meet the demands posed by terrorism and the broader range of national security concerns made evident by the 2001 attack.Given the devastating failure to warn about 9/11, the Commission’s aim was to provide a detailed account of the circumstances related to the attacks and to assess the nation’s preparedness to safeguard against future threats. Among its many findings and recommendations,the 9/11 Commission Report highlights two important areas of concern which are the focus of this volume: 1) intelligence community architecture,and 2) U.S.foreign relations with the Muslim world.Robert Kennedy,Professor at the Sam Nunn School of International Affairs at the Georgia Institute of Technology and a contributor to this volume,captures the Commission’s sentiments stating that,“in the United States the intelligence community is a confederation of sometimes competing, sometimes cooperating,sometimes conflicting Executive Branch agencies and organizations that work both separately—sometimes at cross-purposes and,at times,together to conduct intelligence activities.”1Kennedy further notes how the “fragmented and decentralized nature”of their associations can sometimes compromise the quality and timeliness of producing effective intelligence. As a result,in 2004 Congress passed the Intelligence Reform and Terrorism Prevention Act which outlined a number of sweeping structural changes.The most significant modification called for the establishment of the position of Director of National Intelligence to oversee all 16 intelligence agencies of the federal government,replacing the Director of Central Intelligence.As such, this position now serves as the principal advisor to the President,the National Security Council and the Department of Homeland Security on matters relating to intelligence and national security. 6 MILLER CENTER of PUBLIC AFFAIRS The Scripps Library at the Miller Center ofPublic Affairs In a further attempt to streamline the beaurocratic process,the Commission also called for the establishment of a National Counterterrorism Center (NCTC) to be staffed by members of all 16 agencies and to serve as a center for joint operations and planning.In addition,the Commission pushed for increased information sharing within and between agencies,as well as greater coordination between local,state and national law enforcement. The 2004 Intelligence Reform Act mandated the first major shift in the structure and coordination of the nation’s intelligence community since 1947.That year, President Harry Truman signed into law the National Security Act requiring a major restructuring of the nation’s military units and intelligence capabilities. In particular,two major changes were implemented—the establishment of the National Security Council,creating a centralized coordinating body for national security policy within the Executive Branch and concurrently,the creation of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) which replaced the Office of Strategic Services that emerged during the Second World War.Prior to this time intelligence was conducted as needed on demand by the various departments within the Executive Branch,however,they shared no common direction or coordination. Thus,the CIAbecame the first and only civilian intelligence agency within the government,bringing greater coordination and strategy to intelligence matters. INTELLIGENCE GATHERING,ANALYSIS AND DISSEMINATION 7 The end of the Cold War marked another important shift in the focus and direction of the intelligence community.In the years immediately following the Cold War’s end,the nation’s national security concerns were sidelined by the euphoria unleashed by America’s assumed victory in this struggle.President George H.W.Bush’s declaration of a “new world order”in September 1990,falsely led the nation and policy makers to assume that the end of the Cold War heralded the beginning of a new era characterized by declining global conflict.Bush said, Until now,the world we’ve known has been a world divided—a world of barbed wire and concrete block,conflict and cold war.Now,we can see a new world coming into view.A world in which there is the very real prospect of a new world order.In the words of Winston Churchill, a “world order”in which “the principles of justice and fair play… protect the weak against the strong…”A world where the United Nations,freed from cold war stalemate,is poised to fulfill the historic vision of its founders.A world in which freedom and respect for human rights find a home among all nations.2 This vision,however,proved to be short lived as crises erupted in Kosovo and Somalia, among other places.The series of terrorist attacks that began with the 1993 World Trade Center bombing,and continued several years later with U.S.Embassy bombings in Kenya and Tanzania and the attack on the USSCole in 2000,served as further warning signs of a world in transition.It was not until 2001,however,that the nation was decisively forced to face a more elusive,diverse,and complex range of adversaries. Shifts in the geopolitical landscape,the rise of extremism,and the emergence of al-Qaeda as a global terrorist organization made plain the need to transform the focus and structure of the U.S.intelligence community.The challenges posed by the “war on terror”reminded policy makers that intelligence agencies and structures had been developed during a time vastly different from the present.Change was necessary to ensure domestic security. A second major focus of the 9/11 Commission Report concerned America’s relations with the Muslim world.In particular,the Commission called for greater U.S.support to Pakistan against the nation’s extremists in the form of both military and development aid;a commitment to a stable Afghanistan;greater diversity and clarity regarding the U.S.-Saudi relationship;and an enhanced multilateral effort against Islamic extremism.The report also noted significant concern regarding the rise of suicide terrorism around the world,and the potential threat from Iran based in part on its association with al-Qaeda. 8 MILLER CENTER of PUBLIC AFFAIRS
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