Influencing Violent Extremist Organizations Pilot Effort

300 Pages·2011·3.96 MB·English

by  Abigail Chapman

Approved for Public Release
2011

Influencing
 Violent
 Extremist
 Organizations
 Pilot

Effort:
 Focus
 on
 Al
 Qaeda
 in
 the
 Arabian

Peninsula
 (AQAP)

Strategic
 Multi-­‐Layer
 Assessment
 (SMA)
 Office

Department
 of
 Defense,
 Office
 of
 the
 Secretary

of
 Defense
 (OSD)

Editors

Abigail
 Chapman
 &
 Janice
 Adelman

Fall
 2011

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Table
 of
 Contents

PREFACE
  2

ABIGAIL
 CHAPMAN
 &
 JANICE
 R.
 ADELMAN

CHAPTER
 ONE
 -­‐
 SOCIAL
 IDENTIFICATION,
 INFLUENCE,
 AND
 WHY
 PEOPLE
 JOIN
 AL-­‐QAEDA
 IN

THE
 ARABIAN
 PENINSULA
 (AQAP)
  13

JANICE
 R.
 ADELMAN
 &
 ABIGAIL
 CHAPMAN

CHAPTER
 TWO
 -­‐
 MORAL
 IMPERATIVES
 AND
 DEMOCRATIC
 DYNAMICS
 IN
 THE
 FIGHT

AGAINST
 AQAP
 IN
 THE
 CONTEXT
 OF
 THE
 ARAB
 SPRING:
 POLICY
 AND
 RESEARCH

CHALLENGES
  45

SCOTT
 ATRAN

CHAPTER
 THREE
 -­‐
 APPLIED
 EVOLUTIONARY
 NEUROBEHAVIOR
 TO
 REDUCE
 PARTICIPATION

IN
 AL-­‐QA’IDA
 IN
 THE
 ARABIAN
 PENINSULA
  91

JEFF
 VICTOROFF

CHAPTER
 FOUR
 -­‐
 REDUCING
 RECRUITMENT
 INTO
 ISLAMIC
 TERRORIST
 ORGANIZATIONS:

THE
 ANTAGONISTIC
 EFFECT
 OF
 LIBERAL
 DEMOCRACY
 PROMOTION
  177

PETER
 K.
 HATEMI,
 ROSE
 MCDERMOTT,
 &
 KAREN
 STENNER

CHAPTER
 FIVE
 -­‐
 THE
 NEUROSCIENCE
 OF
 SOCIAL
 DECISION-­‐MAKING
 &
 SOCIAL
 COGNITION:

IMPLICATIONS
 FOR
 VIOLENT
 EXTREMIST
 ORGANIZATION
 (VEO)
 RECRUITMENT
 AND

RETENTION
  211

LASANA
 T.
 HARRIS

CHAPTER
 SIX
 -­‐
 AQAP
 EXTERNAL
 OPERATIONS
  228

MARC
 SAGEMAN

CHAPTER
 SEVEN
 -­‐
 THE
 WAR
 OF
 IDEAS
 IN
 YEMEN:
 ANALYSIS
 OF
 THE
 2011
 GLEVUM
 POLLS
 247

CLARK
 MCCAULEY

CHAPTER
 EIGHT
 -­‐
 USES
 OF
 NARRATIVE
 IN
 PROMOTING
 AND
 COUNTERING
 VIOLENT

EXTREMISM
  262

JAMES
 PRICE
 DILLARD

CHAPTER
 NINE
 -­‐
 AQAP’S
 USE
 OF
 NORM
 ENTREPRENEURSHIP
 IN
 THE
 INSPIRE
 SERIES
  281

 JARRET
 BRACHMAN

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Preface
Background
In 2010 the Strategic Multi-Layer Assessment (SMA)1 office saw a need to bring academics,
practitioners, and individuals from all branches of the United States government together to
discuss the current research and debate issues surrounding extremist violence: Defining a
Strategic Campaign for Working with Partners to Counter and Delegitimize Violent Extremism
(CVE) and the Neurobiology of Political Violence. The findings from the two conferences
clearly indicated that a detailed examination of a violent extremist organization from a multi-
method approach was required in order to begin down the path of understanding.
The CVE workshop was held from 19-20 May 2010 at Gallup World Headquarters in
Washington, DC. The workshop focused on strategic communications and violent extremism and
was designed to inform decision makers and was not intended as a forum for policy discussion.
The workshop emerged from an SMA- and AFRL- sponsored white paper entitled Protecting the
Homeland from International and Domestic Terrorism Threats: Current Multi-Disciplinary
Perspectives on Root Causes, the Role of Ideology, and Programs for Counter-radicalization
and Disengagement. The key insights and findings of the CVE workshop are as follows:2
1. Violent extremism cannot be reduced to one singular or simple cause
2. The difficulties of pursuing deradicalization and delegitimization are numerous. The
question to ask is if this is an appropriate or attainable goal
3. Multi-perspective, tailored approaches are key to effective counter-terror strategic
communications
4. The ways the US uses vocabulary and themes is critical to success of its strategic
communications
The Neurobiology of Political Violence: New Tools, New Techniques workshop hosted by the
National Institutes of Health (NIH), United States Strategic Command (STRATCOM), the Joint
Staff, and the Strategic Multilayer Assessment Office (OSD) in Bethesda, MD from 1-2
December 2010. The workshop facilitated a broad discussion of the current state of the art within
the related fields of neuroscience, neurobiology, and social psychology as it relates to deterring
political violence. While most panelists emphasized the prematurity of applying current research
to real world problems within the national security and homeland defense space, they all agreed

1 The Joint Staff and USSTRATCOM, in partnership with OSD, have developed a proven methodology merging multi-agency
expertise and information to address complex operational requirements that call for multi-disciplinary approaches utilizing skill
sets not normally present within any one service/agency. The SMA process uses robust multi-agency collaboration leveraging
intellectual/analytical rigor to examine factual/empirical evidence with the focus on synthesizing existing knowledge. The end
product consists of actionable strategies and recommendations which can then be used by planners to support COA Development.
SMA is accepted and synchronized by Joint Staff and executed by USSTRATCOM/J-9 and ASD (R&E)/RRTO.
2 The full conference proceedings can be found on the SMA Extranet site [https://nsiteam.net/x_sma/default.aspx]. In order to
gain access you must go to this site and request an account: Https://nsiteam.net/reset
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Preface | 3
that the tools of neuroscience and related fields would serve to better inform current deterrence
and messaging strategies. The key insights and findings from the workshop are below:3
1. Neuroimaging (e.g., MRI) has great utility and provides added insights devoid of self-
report biases.
2. In-group/out-group receptivity to reconciliation has a neurobiological basis and can be
modified by rhetoric.
3. New tools and techniques are emerging.
4. Culture and environment influence behavior and brain function.
5. It is critical to continue basic research in this area.
Overview and Approach
The Influencing Violent Extremist Organizations (IVEO) Pilot Effort was organized by the
Strategic Multilayer Assessment (SMA) Office in the Department of Defense (DoD) and
supported by the Joint Staff (J-3), Strategic Command (STRATCOM), and the Assistant
Secretary of Defense for Research and Engineering. The Pilot Effort fits into the broader IVEO
effort, which has the objective of first improving the United States Government’s (USG)
understanding of potential unintended consequences of influence actions against VEOs and,
second, suggesting principles for planning influence actions that mitigate potential negative
effects and exploit potential opportunities to produce intended effects.4 The Countering Violent
Extremist Organizations (VEOs) Pilot Effort: Focus on Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula
(AQAP) effort was a multi-method, multi-disciplinary exploration of the selected VEO. AQAP
was selected as the focus of the pilot effort due to its continued threat to the United States.
Social science has provided an extant literature surrounding the who, what, and why of violent
extremist organizations. The who and the what are the easy parts. It’s really the why at a
fundamental human level that—even after decades of research, including theorizing, empirically
testing, and cautiously observing—still has social scientists in disagreement and searching for
answers. This pilot effort provided a unique approach to investigate not only the why, but also
the how, in violent extremist organization recruitment. Where does support come from,
particularly global support that goes above and beyond a local connection? Assembling the top
researchers in this field to discuss more theories has been done before, and frankly, is not enough
to move us to the next level of understanding and providing counterstrategies. In this pilot effort,
we brought the best and brightest in to answer one question: given your area of expertise, what
can we possibly do to counter recruitment in violent extremist organizations? From there, we
aimed to synthesize these efforts into one coherent package that may take us beyond simple
theoretical strategizing. Across the fields of social psychology, social neuroscience, evolutionary
psychology, political psychology, and communication science, this work is truly an
interdisciplinary effort.
This quick turnaround effort began in early March and culminated in early August, with the final
report delivered late-September of 2011. Initially, each participant worked independently on

3 The full conference proceedings can be found on the SMA Extranet site [https://nsiteam.net/x_sma/default.aspx]. In order to
gain access you must go to this site and request an account: Https://nsiteam.net/reset
4 Please contact Abigail Chapman ([email protected]) if you would more details on the larger IVEO effort.
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4 | Chapman & Adelman
their research. In late-July, all of the participants came together to begin integrating their findings
across disciplines along with AQAP subject matter experts and practitioners to discuss the results
and identify any gaps. The end result here is the final culmination of these efforts.
Context - Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)
AQAP’s base of operations is the Arab Republic of Yemen, located on the southwest corner of
the Arabian Peninsula and long considered by many in the Arab World to be the Middle East’s
most backward and impoverished state. There are growing fears among many in the US and
Saudi Arabia that AQAP is in position to exploit, if not already exploiting, the ongoing
instability in Yemen to recruit new fighters, organize new attacks, and execute them both
regionally and globally (Blair, 2009; Critical Threats, 2011). This fear is exacerbated by the fact
that Yemen is not only governed by a weak central government, but that its government has
long-standing separatist concerns in the south and truce negotiations to complete with Shi'a
rebels in the north. In addition to the ongoing internal instability within Yemen, the recent death
of senior Al-Qaeda leadership may put Yemen and AQAP at the center of violent extremist
activity going forward (Zimmerman, 2011). Indeed, AQAP’s history combined with recent
videos and statements released on behalf of AQAP suggest that the concern may be warranted. A
number of policies attempt to deflect and weaken this threat, ranging from targeting leaders in
drone attacks to promoting aid and the spread of democracy in the region.
Historical Background
Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula is the result of a merger between al-Qaida’s previously
established Yemen- and Saudi Arabia-based affiliates; namely al-Qaeda in Yemen, and al-Qaeda
in Saudi Arabia (also referred to as al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula prior to the merger). On
their own merit, both of these local affiliates proved to be somewhat effective in their
organization and operations, but clearly had deficiencies that limited their reach. However, by
combining and pooling resources, in much the same way that al-Qaida’s North African affiliates
did in September 2006 to form al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), AQAP has established
itself as a primary regional organization with far greater capacity and stature within the larger al-
Qaeda movement.
In light of the historical and current political context, each participant embarked upon a 4-month
academic exercise designed to elicit the best concepts and ideas from their fields of expertise to
deter and influence VEOs and the potential unintended consequences of such strategies. We
were especially interested in gaining a better understanding of the decision-making processes for
recruitment and other important organizational functions, underlying motivations of those
involved, attitude formation processes and influence possibilities, and identity-related
considerations. A brief synopsis of each research topic that comprise the chapters in this report
are described below.
Research Topics
Social Identification, Influence, and Why People Join AQAP.
Academic disciplinary approach: Social psychology.
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A social identity perspective sheds light on motivations for joining a group, and more
importantly motivations for defending and promoting that group. How do factors of social
influence, prototypicality, and social identification influence motivation to join a violent
extremist organization? In Chapter 1, Janice Adelman and Abigail Chapman seek to answer this
question by reviewing the social identity literature and applying this theoretical framework to
group processes in a violent extremist organization.
Moral Imperatives and Democratic Dynamics in the Fight Against AQAP in the Context of
the Arab Spring: Policy and Research Challenges
Academic disciplinary approach: Anthropology
In Chapter 2, Scott Atran addresses the question: What are the specific moral strategies that
AQAP is employing, or could employ, to reach youth in the region and what can research tell us?
His research looks to understand the potential moral appeal of AQAP among youth in the region.
The work he presents here builds on nearly a decade of DoD-supported studies concerned with
the role of “sacred values” in galvanizing terrorist networks, in supporting decisions to go to war,
and in maintaining seemingly intractable conflicts across the world.
Applied Evolutionary Neurobehavior to Reduce Participation in AQAP
Academic disciplinary approach: Evolutionary neuropsychology
Chapter 3 provides an evolutionary neuropsychology perspective that frames inclusive fitness as
a basic motivator for joining an extremist organization. Jeff Victoroff notes that AQAP is a small
group of people who represent a disproportionately large threat to U.S. security. He argues that
AQAP exists because (a) the world Muslim population has undergone a renaissance in anti-
Western militant Islamist sentiment and (b) Yemen is a geographic and social ecological niche
that is somewhat favorable to the jihadi agenda. Based on evolutionary neurobehavior, Victoroff
suggests that humans are ultimately motivated to make life history strategy decisions, such as
whether or not to join AQAP, by the brain’s calculation of the impact of that choice on inclusive
fitness. He notes that up to now, U.S. strategy to defeat AQAP has been devised blind to these
ultimate motivations. It is possible that better understanding ultimate motivations to join AQAP
would improve counterterrorism policy design. His chapter discusses the science of evolutionary
neurobehavior (ENB) as it relates to human motivation. He systematically reviews the unique
attractions of Yemen for AQAP in the light of ENB. In light of this new science, he then
examines some policy choices currently under consideration to fight AQAP, and offers some
specific recommendations that may enhance U.S. security.
Reducing Recruitment into Islamic Terrorist Organizations: The Antagonistic Effect of
Liberal Democracy Promotion
Academic disciplinary approach: Political Science/Genetics
Chapter 4 discusses the unintended consequences of one of the primary macro strategies the U.S.
government uses in its endeavors to reduce terrorism: the promotion of liberal democracy
abroad. Pete Hatemi, Rose McDermott, and Karen Stenner provide empirical evidence to suggest
that this approach actually inspires the terrorist activity it is trying to prevent. They argue that
individual worldviews regarding freedom and diversity—fundamental to liberal democracy—rest
on political attitudes which are not randomly distributed across the world's regions. Hatemi and
colleagues point out that the regions of the world where terrorist recruitment is most successful
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are also least disposed to values that support a liberal democracy. The authors further highlight
the importance of this since attitudes constitute part of a person’s psychological dispositions. As
such, they cannot be easily changed and attempts to force liberal values, upon which liberal
democracy rests, onto populations that do not want them will be interpreted as hostile and
coercive acts by those populations. Using political science theory and advances in genetics
research, these authors explain why current liberal democracy promotion effort may be
increasing, rather than diminishing, recruitment into terrorist organizations.
The Neuroscience of Social Decision-Making & Social Cognition: Implications for Violent
Extremist Organization (VEO) Recruitment and Retention
Academic disciplinary approach: Social Neuroscience
In Chapter 5, Lasana Harris asks what are the psychological and neural events that lead to a
person strapping a bomb to his (or her) body, blowing up one’s self and others? Harris proposes
that social decision-making processes underlie the observable behavior of people joining
extremist organizations. From a social psychological perspective, Harris believes that behaviors
are a product of individual dispositions and contextual factors. Since individual dispositions are
generalizable the world over, Harris focuses on the context in which people find themselves,
paying particular attention to the neural correlates of the contextual factors, as they are malleable
and influential in decision-making processes. This chapter provides an essential overview of
social neuroscience literature on social decision-making, social cognition, and dehumanization.
Without providing the magic bullet solution, this work demonstrates the complexity of behaviors
in action, providing a new perspective for analysts and policy experts to explore regarding
AQAP and VEOs.
AQAP’s External Operations Branch
Academic disciplinary approach: Sociology
Chapter 6 moves away from the neurobehavioral approach by analyzing prominent AQAP
members and their publications. Marc Sageman reiterates that AQAP (one of several al Qaeda
branches) currently represents the greatest threat to the West, since Al Qaeda proper in the
Afghan Pakistani frontier is fading. Sageman’s assessment from the literature suggests that
AQAP is a loose organization, mainly posing a local threat to Yemen and neighboring Saudi
Arabia. Sageman reports that the vast majority of AQAP operations are local, targeting local
authorities. Nevertheless, AQAP has become more active in recent years in targeting Western
countries, both in Yemen (e.g., embassies in Sanaa and Western tourists) and in the West (e.g.,
failed bombings on American commercial and industry planes). In this chapter the author focuses
on trying to understand the history of this new al Qaeda branch, how people formed and joined
it, what they say about their goals, strategy and tactics, and derive implications about their
strengths and vulnerabilities.
The War of Ideas in Yemen: Data from the November 2010 Glevum Poll
Academic disciplinary approach: Political Psychology
In Chapter 7, Clark McCauley applies the pyramid approach to understanding organizations,
acknowledging that at each part of the pyramid lie individuals with different connections to the
organization. That is, most people are purely sympathizers with the group’s goals; these
sympathizers form the bottom of the pyramid. A smaller proportion of people sympathize with
the group’s means of attaining its goals; these sympathizers are in the middle of the pyramid.
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Finally, few people actually act on behalf of the group; these violent actors are at the apex.
McCauley analyzes data from two recent polls conducted in Yemen to draw observations and
implications relevant to the war of ideas between the U.S. and AQAP.
Uses of Narrative in Promoting and Countering Violent Extremism
Academic disciplinary approach: Communication Science
In Chapter 8, James P. Dillard breaks down the concept of radicalization as two conceptually
distinct, yet related, components. The first component encompasses psychological processes of
beliefs, attitudes, intentions, and behavior. Dillard notes that radicalization tends to lead to binary
perceptions of ingroup and outgroups, judging those in the outgroup more harshly. The second
component is a necessary one to radicalization: messages. Dillard proposes that messages
stimulate thought, invoke feelings, and provide justification for past and future action. His
chapter provides a theoretical overview of messages and narratives grounded in communication
sciences and extends the logic of such an analysis to radicalization and counter-radicalization.
AQAP’s Use of Norm Entrepreneurship in the Inspire Series
Academic disciplinary approach: Political Science
The final chapter comes from Jarret Brachman. In his work, he incorporates the idea of "norm
entrepreneurship"—in which actors intentionally try to change existing behavioral norms within
a given social environment—to studying how AQAP reaches out to English speakers. The author
applies the study of norm entrepreneurship to AQAP’s English-language Inspire magazine.
Integration of Findings
The pilot effort sought to elicit unique insights and findings within and across multiple
disciplines. Each participant was tasked with applying the theories and research findings from his
or her field of study to the problem set of AQAP. Each participant received an overview brief on
AQAP and then worked independently on their efforts until the integration meeting held in late
July 2011. Participants were tasked with showcasing their individual contributions to the
problem and asked to begin pulling the common threads of understanding with the goal of
putting all of these pieces of the puzzle together so that a more coherent understanding of this
phenomenon would emerge. Additionally, by bridging diverse disciplines together, gaps in the
common understanding and knowledgebase become more apparent, allowing others to refocus
their work and strive to shore up the knowledge gaps. The following sections begin to walk the
reader along the multiple disciplines. It is a winding and bumpy road, but unique connections can
be made across and through disciplines resulting in an enriched understanding of the problem.
With additional time, resources, and access to AQAP intelligence, greater depth can be attained,
but this pilot effort begins to show the value and importance of cross-discipline approaches.
General Findings
Part of the problem in tackeling an issue such as this is the tendency to narrowly focus on one
tiny aspect, disregarding other potentially relevant factors. With the pilot effort, we had an
opportunity to avoid falling into the tunnel-vision trap. Yet at the same time, such an opportunity
also provides problems of its own. By opening up our field of vision, we often attempt to throw
in every possible factor. Neither of these approaches are very viable, moving from one extreme
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(e.g., only one factor) to the other (e.g., infinite factors). However, by beginning to approach the
problem one discipline at a time, then coming together as a group to discuss and identify
recurring themes, we may be able to avoid (to some degree) the tendency to under- or
overestimate the relative importance of any one factor. With this in mind, a few factors remained
at the forefront throughout the discussion among the academics.5 Figure 1 suggests a possible
framework for how all of the concepts presented by the academics interrelate with one another.
Figure 1. Conceputal Diagram of Academic Contributions

Given the overlap and connectedness between these concepts and constructs, what is the
underlying message that will move us forward? For example, what does it mean to promote a
civil society in cultures with different values from our own? To answer this question, we need to
look further at the overarching themes that emerged (and the concepts that were most prevalent)
throughout our two days of discussion regarding:
• Group Psychology
o Narratives
o Social Identity

5 Academics from different disciplines tend to use their own discipline’s terminology. We strived to pull out the main themes that
emerged from the discussion that appeared to tap the same idea or construct, regardless of the specific label assigned to that idea
from different disciplines. Of course, this is but one interpretation of how these concepts blend together.
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• Biology & Environment
o Inclusive fitness
o Genetic predispositions
o Interaction between environment and biology
Group Psychology
Narratives
Throughout the academics’ research, the importance and role of narratives presented itself as a
common element that both weaves between and links the various disciplines. In the broadest
sense, narratives play a role in helping individuals and groups navigate their world. For example,
Al-Qaeda in the Arbian Peninsula provides a narrative that is driven by the desire for collective
dignity and social justice. According to the narrative, both of these concepts justify the use of
violent confrontation against Western forces. Narratives emerge from the groups to which we
belong (i.e., our social identities), the society that we find ourselves in, and are often grounded in
historical context. As such, narratives contribute to how we categorize and conceptualize
ourselves and our group memberships based upon collective history that informs and shapes
attitudes and behavior. We can think of narratives as the storylines that are used to create and
sustain cultural worldviews. It is with these cultural worldviews that distinctions are drawn
between groups, creating the perpetual us versus them cycle. (See the section on social identities
below for further explication about group membership and “us” versus “them” mentality.)
It is through publications such as Inspire that the group narrative—whether it is based in fact or
fiction—spreads. It is often difficult for individuals to distinguish between a fictional and factual
narrative, especially when the narrative depicts a highly charged issue, or the recipient is in an
elevated emotional state. For many, the distinction of fact or fiction is irrelevant. Rather, the
issue is how the narrative makes them feel. This is a critical element to highlight: emotion plays
a large role in the receipt of a message, as well as the message’s ability to alter an individual’s
attitude or behavior. Indeed, discussion regarding narratives highlighted the three conditions
under which narratives will alter (or persuade) an audience:
1. Emotional arousal is necessary;
2. Emotion must be perceived as coming from the message and not somewhere else; and
3. Emotion must be perceived as relevant to the story advocacy presented.

When none of the above conditions are met, the narrative may in fact backfire, leading to
unintended consequences. Ultimately, such an occurrence will likely result in a negative
trajectory.
Given that emotion plays a large role and the fact that narratives help shape our collective
worldview (inclusive of attitudes and normative behavior) it can be very difficult to overcome
existing narratives. Prior to crafting counter-narratives extensive research must be done on the
target population’s narratives, including assessing which narratives, if any, play a crucial role in
radicalization or in creating the negative attitudes of interest.
Narratives can be a useful tool to provide cognitive frames that aid in understanding confusing or
ambiguous situations; it is in this way that narratives can also be used to potentially mitigate
consequences of an action taken. For example, if the United States were to engage in a targeted
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