Influence of Applying Credit ence of Applying Credit Scoring Technique on Custome Technique on ...

267 Pages·2016·6.23 MB·English

SSSuuudddaaannn UUUnnniiivvveeerrrsssiiitttyyy ooofff SSSccciiieeennnccceee &&& TTTeeeccchhhnnnooolllooogggyyy

College of Graduate Studies

IInnfflluueennccee ooff AAppppllyyiinngg CCrreeddiitt Scoring TTeecchhnniiqquuee oonn CCuussttoommeerrss’
Creditworthiness Estimation:
AAnn EEmmppiirriiccaall MMooddeell ttoo PPrreeddiicctt tthhee PPrroobbaabbiilliittyy ooff DDeeffaauulltt oonn
IIssllaammiicc FFiinnaannccee MMooddeess iinn SSuuddaann
During 2010-2014

:ءءءﻼﻼﻼﻣﻣﻣﻌﻌﻌﻠﻠﻠﻟﻟﻟ ﺔﺔﺔﯾﯾﯾﻧﻧﻧﺎﺎﺎﻣﻣﻣﺗﺗﺗﺋﺋﺋﻻﻻﻻااا ةةةرررااادددﺟﺟﺟﻟﻟﻟااا مممﯾﯾﯾﯾﯾﯾﻘﻘﻘﺗﺗﺗ ﻲﻲﻲﻓﻓﻓ ﻲﻲﻲﻧﻧﻧﺎﺎﺎﻣﻣﻣﺗﺗﺗﺋﺋﺋﻻﻻﻻااا فففﯾﯾﯾﻧﻧﻧﺻﺻﺻﺗﺗﺗﻟﻟﻟااا ﺔﺔﺔﯾﯾﯾﻧﻧﻧﻘﻘﻘﺗﺗﺗ قﯾﺑطﺗ رﺛأ
نادوﺳﻟا ﻲﻓ ﺔﺔﺔﯾﯾﯾﻣﻣﻣﻼﻼﻼﺳﺳﺳﻹﻹﻹااا لللﯾﯾﯾوووﻣﻣﻣﺗﺗﺗﻟﻟﻟااا ﻎﻎﻎﯾﯾﯾﺻﺻﺻ ﻲﻲﻲﻓﻓﻓ رررﺛﺛﺛﻌﻌﻌﺗﺗﺗﻟﻟﻟﺎﺎﺎﺑﺑﺑ ؤؤؤﺑﺑﺑﻧﻧﻧﺗﺗﺗﻠﻠﻠﻟﻟﻟ ﻲﻲﻲﺑﺑﺑﯾﯾﯾرررﺟﺟﺟﺗﺗﺗ جججذذذوووﻣﻣﻣﻧﻧﻧ
2014-2010 ةرﺗﻔﻟا لﻼﺧ
A Thesis submitted by:
HHuussaammEEllddeeeenn NNaabbeeiill MMoohhaammeedd YYoouussiiff
IInn ffuullffiillmmeenntt ooff tthhee requirement of PH.D deeggrreeee iinn
Banking studies
SSSuuupppeeerrrvvviiisssooorrr::: DDDrrr... IIIbbbrrraaahhhiiimmm FFFaaaddduuullleeemmmaaawwwlllaaa EEElllbbbaaassshhheeeeeerrr

May2016
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SSSuuudddaaannn UUUnnniiivvveeerrrsssiiitttyyy ooofff SSSccciiieeennnccceee aaannnddd TTTeeeccchhhnnnooolllooogggyyy

CCoolllleeggee ooff GGrraadduuaattee SSttuuddiieess

DECLARATION
I, the signing here-uunnddeerr,, ddeeccllaarree tthhaatt II amm tthhee ssoollee aauutthhoorr ooff tthhee ((PPhh..DD..)) Thesis
entitled: IInnfflluueennccee ooff AAppppllyyiinngg CCrreedit-Scoring TTeecchhnniiqquuee oonn CCustomers’
CCCrrreeedddiiitttwwwooorrrttthhhiiinnneeessssss EEEssstttiiimmmaaatttiiiooonnn::: AAAnnn EEEmmmpppiiirrriiicccaaalll MMMooodddeeelll tttooo ppprrreeedddiiicccttt ttthhheee ppprrrooobbbaaabbbiiillliiitttyyy ooofff dddeeefffaaauuulllttt
oonn IIssllaammiicc FFiinnaannccee MMooddeess iinn SSuuddaann dduurriinngg 22001100-2014, wwhhiicchh iiss aann oorriiggiinnaall
iinntteelllleeccttuuaall wwoorrkk.. WWiilllliinnggllyy,, II aassssiiggnn tthhee ccooppyyrriigghhtt ooff tthhiiss wwoorrkk ttoo tthhee CCoolllleeggee ooff
GGGrrraaaddduuuaaattteee SSStttuuudddiiieeesss (((CCCGGGSSS))),,, SSSuuudddaaannn UUUnnniiivvveeerrrsssiiitttyyy ooofff SSSccciiieeennnccceee aaannnddd TTTeeeccchhhnnnooolllooogggyyy (((SSSUUUSSSTTT)))...
AAAccccccooorrrdddiiinnnggglllyyy,,, SSSUUUSSSTTT hhhaaasss aaallllll ttthhheee rrriiiggghhhtttsss tttooo pppuuubbbllliiissshhh ttthhhiiisss wwwooorrrkkk fffooorrr SSSccciiieeennntttiiifffiiiccc pppuuurrrpppooossseeesss...
CCCaaannndddiiidddaaattteee’’’sss nnnaaammmeee::: HHHUUUSSSAAAMMMEEELLLDDDEEEEEENNN NNNAAABBBEEEIIILLL MMMOOOHHHAAAMMMEEEDDD YYYOOOUUUSSSIIIFFF
Candidate’s ssiiggnnaattuurree::.......................................................DDaattee:: MMaayy 22001166:
ررا ــــﻗإ
ففﯾﯾﻧﻧــــﺻﺻﺗﺗﻟﻟاا ﺔﺔــﯾﯾﻧﻧﻘﻘﺗﺗ ققــــﯾﯾﺑﺑططﺗﺗ ررــﺛﺛأأ :ﺔﺔــﻧﻧووﻧﻧﻌﻌﻣﻣﻟﻟاا ةةررااووﺗﺗﻛﻛددــــﻟﻟاا ﺔﺔﻟﻟﺎﺎــﺳﺳررﻟﻟ ددــﯾﯾﺣﺣووﻟﻟاا ففــﻟﻟؤؤﻣﻣﻟﻟاا ﻲﻲﻧﻧﻧﻧﺄﺄــــﺑﺑ ررــﻗﻗأأ ﻩﻩﺎﺎــﻧﻧددأأ ﻊﻊــﻗﻗووﻣﻣﻟﻟاا ﺎﺎــﻧﻧأأ
للــﯾﯾووﻣﻣﺗﺗﻟﻟاا ﻎﻎﯾﯾــﺻﺻ ﻲﻲــﻓﻓ ررﺛﺛﻌﻌﺗﺗﻟﻟﺎﺎــﺑﺑ ؤؤــﺑﺑﻧﻧﺗﺗﻠﻠﻟﻟ ﻲﻲــﺑﺑﯾﯾررﺟﺟﺗﺗ ججذذووــﻣﻣﻧﻧ" ءءﻼﻼــﻣﻣﻌﻌﻠﻠﻟﻟ ﺔﺔــﯾﯾﻧﻧﺎﺎﻣﻣﺗﺗﺋﺋﻻﻻاا ةةررااددﺟﺟﻟﻟاا ممﯾﯾﯾﯾﻘﻘﺗﺗ ﻲﻲﻓﻓ ﻲﻲﻧﻧﺎﺎﻣﻣﺗﺗﺋﺋﻻﻻاا
."2014 - 2010 ةةررﺗﺗﻔﻔﻟﻟاا للﻼﻼﺧﺧ ننااددووﺳﺳﻟﻟاا ﻲﻲﻓﻓ ﺔﺔﯾﯾﻣﻣﻼﻼﺳﺳﻹﻹاا
ﺎﺎــﯾﯾﻠﻠﻌﻌﻟﻟاا تتﺎﺎــﺳﺳرراا ددﻟﻟاا ﺔﺔــﯾﯾﻠﻠﻛﻛﻟﻟ للــﻣﻣﻌﻌﻟﻟاا ااذذــﻫﻫ ررــﺷﺷﻧﻧ وو ﻊﻊــﺑﺑطط ققووــﻘﻘﺣﺣ ﻲﻲــططﻋﻋأأ ييررﺎﺎﯾﯾﺗﺗﺧﺧﺎﺎﺑﺑ وو .لﯾﺻﺻأأ ييررﻛﻛﻓﻓ ﺞﺞﺗﺗﻧﻧﻣﻣ ﻲﻲﻫﻫ وو
.ﺔﺔﺔﯾﯾﯾﻣﻣﻣﻠﻠﻠﻌﻌﻌﻟﻟﻟااا ضضضرررااا ﻏﻏﻏﻸﻸﻸﻟﻟﻟ لللﻣﻣﻣﻌﻌﻌﻟﻟﻟااا اااذذذﻫﻫﻫ رررﺷﺷﺷﻧﻧﻧ ﺔﺔﺔﻌﻌﻌﻣﻣﻣﺎﺎﺎﺟﺟﺟﻠﻠﻠﻟﻟﻟ قققﺣﺣﺣﯾﯾﯾ ﻪﻪﻪﯾﯾﯾﻠﻠﻠﻋﻋﻋ ،،،ﺎﺎﺎﯾﯾﯾﺟﺟﺟوووﻟﻟﻟوووﻧﻧﻧﻛﻛﻛﺗﺗﺗﻟﻟﻟااا ووو ممموووﻠﻠﻠﻌﻌﻌﻠﻠﻠﻟﻟﻟ نننااادددوووﺳﺳﺳﻟﻟﻟااا ﺔﺔﺔﻌﻌﻌﻣﻣﻣﺎﺎﺎﺟﺟﺟ
ففــــــــــﺳﺳووﯾﯾ ددــــــــــﻣﻣﺣﺣﻣﻣ للــــــــــﯾﯾﺑﺑﻧﻧ ننــــــﯾﯾددﻟﻟاا ممﺎﺎــــــــــــﺳﺳﺣﺣ :سرادﻟا مﺳإ
م2015 وﯾﺎﻣ :ﺦﯾرﺎﺗﻟا .........................::سرادﻟا ﻊﯾﻗوﺗ

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لﻼـــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــﮭﺘﺳﻻا

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ﺐٌ ـﺗِﰷَ ر�ﺎـﻀَ ُﯾ ﻻوَ ﱲُْﻌَْﯾﺎـﺒََﺗ اذَ ا اوﺪُ ِﻬـﺷْ ��وَ ﺎﻫَ ﻮﺒُ �ُﻜْ َ�ﻻ�� حٌ ﺎَ� ﺟُ ﲂْ ُ ﯿَْﻠَ� ﺲَ ْ�َﻠَﻓ ﲂْ ُ َ�ْ�َﺑ ﺎَﳖَوﺮُ�ﺪِ ُﺗ ةًﴐَ ِ ﺎ�َ ةًرَﺎ�َ ﺘَِﻧﻮﻜُ َ� نْ �� ﻻا اﻮُﺑ�َﺮَْ� ﻻ�� ﱏَ دْ ��وَ ةِدَ ﺎَﻬﺸ� ﻠ�ِ
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.﴾ ﲓ ٌ ﻠَِ� ءٍﳾْ َ ﲁِّ ُ �ِ �ُ� اوَ �ُ� ﲈﻜُ ﻤُّﻠِﻌَُﯾوَ �َ� ا اﻮﻘُ�ﺗاوَ ﲂْ ُ �ِ قٌﻮﺴُ ُﻓ ﻪُ�ﻧﺎَﻓ اﻮُﻠﻌَ ﻔَْﺗ نْ اوَﺪٌ ﯿﻬِ ﺷَ ﻻوَ
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ةﺮﻘﺒﻟا ةرﻮﺳ
282 ﮫﯾﻵا

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I would like to dedicate this Doctoral dissertation to my father, my mother, my
beloved family and friends for their support, help, and standing by me. No
doubt that without their continued support and counsel I could not have
completed this process.

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First and foremost, I have to thank Sudan University of Science and
Technology, also I would like to acknowledge the inspirational instruction and
guidance of Dr. Ibrahim Fadulemawla Elbasheer, also the support and help that
given by Mr. Abdelmoneim Ahmed Abdelwahab. Both of them have given me
a deep appreciation and love for the beauty and detail of this subject.
I would also like to acknowledge the support and assistance given to me by the
co-workers in CBOS. They have been very generous in their support of my
academic pursuits and many of them have contributed ideas, feedback and
advice. Finally, I would like to thank my wife, Dalia, for her support and
encouragement.

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Abstract
The study aimed to investigate the existence of the potential link between credit scoring
and financial decision making by investigating the influence of credit scoring updates
on customer affordability, explore the relationship between credit risk and credit
scoring, and determine the effect of applying a credit scoring system on decreasing the
probability of default through the accuracy of creditworthiness assessment progress in
Sudanese commercial banks. Following an investigative phase to identify relevant
variables in the sector, the research proceeds to an evaluative phase, in which an
analysis is undertaken of financial and demographic data sets for Islamic finance
applicants during 2010-2014. The study problem stemmed from the commercial banks
adoption of personal judgment approach, which leads to grant credits to inappropriate
borrowers while Statistical scoring techniques are shown to provide more efficient
classification results than the currently used judgmental techniques. The study depended
on several research methods; hence, the study adopted the descriptive methodology to
determine the magnitude and the causes of the problem, the Discriminant analysis in the
applied aspect, and the inductive method in drawing conclusions. The study indicated
the existence of a statistical significant adverse relationship between high credit score
and the probability of default; also, the existence of a statistically significant positive
relationship between adopting credit scoring model and creditworthiness estimation
process. The study most important recommendations call for commercial banks in
Sudan to adopt the proposed model which may have positive influence in decreasing the
non-performing loans.

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صﻠﺧﺗﺳﻣﻟا
ﺔﯾﻟﺎﻣﻟا ترارا ﻘﻟا ذﺎﺧﺗإ و ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺗﺋﻻا فﯾﻧﺻﺗﻟا نﯾﺑ ﺔﻠﻣﺗﺣﻣ ﺔﻗﻼﻋ دوﺟو نﻣ قﻘﺣﺗﻟا ﻲﻟإ ﺔﺳرا دﻟا تﻓدﻫ
، مﻬﺗﺎــﻣزا ﺗﻟإ دادــﺳ ﻲــﻠﻋ ءﻼــﻣﻌﻟا ةردــﻗ ﺔــﻓرﻌﻣ ﻲــﻠﻋ ﻲﻧﺎــﻣﺗﺋﻻا فﯾﻧــﺻﺗﻟا رــﺛأ نــﻣ قــﻘﺣﺗﻟا قــﯾرط نــﻋ
فﯾﻧـﺻﺗﻟا مﺎـظﻧ قـﯾﺑطﺗ رـﺛأ دـﯾدﺣﺗ و ،ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺗﺋﻻا فﯾﻧﺻﺗﻟا و لﯾوﻣﺗﻟا رطﺎﺧﻣ نﯾﺑ ﺔﻗﻼﻌﻟا فﺎﺷﻛﺗﺳإ
ًﺎــﯾﻧﺎﻣﺗﺋا نادوــﺳﻟا ﻲــﻓ ﺔــﯾرﺎﺟﺗﻟا فرﺎــﺻﻣﻟا ءﻼــﻣﻋ مﯾــﯾﻘﺗ رــﺑﻋ رــﺛﻌﺗﻟا ﺔــﯾﻟﺎﻣﺗﺣإ ضــﻔﺧ ﻲــﻓ ﻲﻧﺎــﻣﺗﺋﻻا
اذـــﻫ ﻲﺗﺄـــﯾ و .ﻲﻓرـــﺻﻣﻟا عﺎـــطﻘﻟﺎﺑ ﺔﻠـــﺻﻟا تاذ ترا ـــﯾﻐﺗﻣﻟا دـــﯾدﺣﺗ قـــﯾرط نـــﻋ كـــﻟذ و .ﺔـــﻘﯾﻗد ةروـــﺻﺑ
لوــﺻﺣﻠﻟ اوﻣدــﻘﺗ نﯾذــﻟاءﻼﻣﻌﻠﻟ ﺔــﯾﻓرا ﻏوﻣﯾدﻟا و ﺔــﯾﻟﺎﻣﻟا تﺎــﻧﺎﯾﺑﻟا نــﻣ ﺔــﻋوﻣﺟﻣ لــﯾﻠﺣﺗ و مﯾــﯾﻘﺗﻟ ثــﺣﺑﻟا
فرﺎــﺻﻣﻟا دﺎــﻣﺗﻋإ ﻲــﻓ ﺔــﺳرا دﻟا ﺔﻠﻛــﺷﻣ تــﻠﺛﻣﺗ .(2014-2010) ةرــﺗﻔﻟا لﻼــﺧ ﻲﻣﻼــﺳإ لــﯾوﻣﺗ ﻲــﻠﻋ
لـــﯾوﻣﺗﻟا ﺢﻧـــﻣ ﻲـــﻟإ يدؤـــﯾ يذـــﻟا رـــﻣﻷا لـــﯾوﻣﺗﻟا ﺢﻧـــﻣ دـــﻧﻋ ءﻼـــﻣﻌﻠﻟ ﻲـــﺻﺧﺷﻟا مﯾـــﯾﻘﺗﻟا ﺔـــﻘﯾرط ﻲـــﻠﻋ
مﯾـــﯾﻘﺗﻟا نـــﻣ ةءﺎـــﻔﻛ و ﺔـــﻗد رـــﺛﻛأ ﺔﯾﺋﺎـــﺻﺣإ تﺎـــﯾﻧﻘﺗ ترـــﻬظ ﻪـــﻧأ نﯾـــﺣ ﻲـــﻓ ،نﯾﺑـــﺳﺎﻧﻣﻟرا ﯾﻏ صﺎﺧـــﺷﻸﻟ
ﻲﻔـــﺻوﻟا ﺞﻬﻧﻣﻟﺎــﻛ ﺞﻫﺎــﻧﻣﻟا نــﻣ ددـــﻋ ﻲــﻠﻋ ﺔــﺳرا دﻟا تدــﻣﺗﻋإ .ً ﺎـــﯾﻧﺎﻣﺗﺋا ءﻼــﻣﻌﻟا فﯾﻧــﺻﺗﻟ ﻲــﺻﺧﺷﻟا
ﺞﻬﻧـﻣﻟا و ،ءﻼـﻣﻌﻟا نﯾﺑ ﺔﻠﺿﺎﻔﻣﻠﻟ زﯾﺎﻣﺗﻟا لﯾﻠﺣﺗ ﺞﻬﻧﻣ ،ﺎﻬﺑﺎﺑﺳأ دﯾدﺣﺗ و ﺔﻠﻛﺷﻣﻟا مﺟﺣ ﻲﻠﻋ فرﻌﺗﻠﻟ
ﺔﯾـﺳﻛﻋ ﺔـﻗﻼﻋ دوـﺟو :ﺔـﺳرا دﻟا ﺞﺋﺎـﺗﻧ مـﻫأ نـﻣ .تﺎﯾﺻوﺗﻟﺎﺑ جورﺧﻟا و ﺞﺋﺎﺗﻧﻟا صﻼﺧﺗﺳﻹ ﻲﺋرا ﻘﺗﺳﻹا
دوــﺟو ،دادــﺳﻟا ﻲــﻠﻋ ةردــﻘﻟا مدــﻋ ﺔــﯾﻟﺎﻣﺗﺣإ و ﻊــﻔﺗرﻣﻟا ﻲﻧﺎــﻣﺗﺋﻻا فﯾﻧــﺻﺗﻟا نﯾــﺑ ﺔﯾﺋﺎــﺻﺣإ ﺔــﻟﻻد تاذ
ﺔـﯾﻧﺎﻣﺗﺋﻻا ةرادـﺟﻟا مﯾـﯾﻘﺗ و ﻲﻧﺎـﻣﺗﺋﻻا فﯾﻧﺻﺗﻟا جذو ﻣﻧ قﯾﺑطﺗ نﯾﺑ ﺔﯾﺋﺎﺻﺣإ ﺔﻟﻻد تاذ ﺔﯾدرط ﺔﻗﻼﻋ
حرــﺗﻘﻣﻟا ﻲﺋﺎــﺻﺣﻹا جذوــﻣﻧﻟا ﻲــﻧﺑﺗ ﻲﻧادوــﺳﻟا ﻲﻓرــﺻﻣﻟا زﺎــﻬﺟﻟا ﻲــﻠﻋ :تﺎﯾــﺻوﺗﻟا مــﻫأ نــﻣ .ءﻼــﻣﻌﻠﻟ
تﻻدــﻌﻣ ضــﻔﺧ ﻲــﻓ رــﺛﻷا ﻪــﻟ نوﻛﯾــﺳ يذــﻟا رــﻣﻷا ءﻼــﻣﻌﻟا ةرادــﺟ مﯾــﯾﻘﺗ ﺔــﯾﻠﻣﻋ نــﻣ زأ ــﺟﺗﯾ ﻻ ءزــﺟﻛ
.ةرﺛﻌﺗﻣﻟا نوﯾدﻟا

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Table of contents
Page No.
BLANK PAPER
TITLE PAGE
EXAMINERS APPROVAL
DECLARATION
INTRODUCTIVE PAGES
DEDICATION i
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT ii
ABSTRACT iii
ﺺﻠﺨﺘﺴﻤﻟا iv
TABLE OF CONTENTS V
LIST OF TABLES x
LIST OF FIGURES xi
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS xii
LIST OF APPENDICES xv
CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION
1.1 PREAMBLE 2
1.2 MOTIVATION OF THE STUDY 2
1.3 IMPORTANCE OF THE STUDY 3
1.3.1 Scientific importance 3
1.3.2 Practical importance 3
1.4 PROBLEM OF THE STUDY 3
1.5 QUESTIONS OF THE STUDY 5
1.6 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY 5
1.6.1 General objectives 5
1.62 Special objectives 5
1.7 HYPOTHESIS OF THE STUDY 6
1.8 SOURCES OF DATA 6
1.9 MODEL OF THE STUDY 6
1.10 METHODOLOGY OF THE STUDY 7
1.11 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY 7
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