Table Of Content

Inequality,Grievances,andCivilWar This book argues that political and economic inequalities following group linesgenerategrievancesthatcanmotivatecivilwar.Thetheoreticalapproach highlightsethnonationalismandhowlinkagesbetweengroupidentitiesand inequalitiesspurmobilizationandresorttoviolence.Althoughcontemporary research on civil war has largely dismissed grievances as irrelevant, empha- sizinginsteadtheroleofopportunities,theauthorsshowthatmanyalleged nonresultsforgrievancesstemfromatheoreticalmeasures,typicallybasedon individualist data. The authors develop new indicators of political and economic exclusion at the group level and demonstrate how these exert strong effects on the risk of civil war. They provide new analyses of the effects of transnational ethnic links and the duration of civil wars and extended case discussionsillustratingcausalmechanisms. Lars-Erik Cederman is Professor of International Conflict Research at the CenterforComparativeandInternationalStudiesatETHZu¨rich.Heisthe authorofEmergentActorsinWorldPolitics(1997),theeditorofConstruct- ingEurope’sIdentity(2001),andtheco-editorofNewSystemsTheoriesof World Politics (2010). He is the winner of the 2012 and 2002 American PoliticalScienceAssociation’sHeinzI.EulauAwards,the2000FurnissBook Award,andtheHoraceH.RackhamDissertationAwardfromtheUniversity ofMichigan. Kristian Skrede Gleditsch is Professor in the Department of Government, UniversityofEssex,andaResearchAssociateatthePeaceResearchInstitute Oslo (PRIO). He is the author of All International Politics Is Local (2002) and Spatial Regression Models (2008) as well as numerous journal articles. Heisthewinnerofthe2012AmericanPoliticalScienceAssociation’sHeinz I.EulauAward,the2011InternationalAssociationforConflictManagement outstandingarticleinthefieldaward,the2007KarlDeutschAwardfromthe International Studies Association, and the 2000 American Political Science Association’sHelenDwightReidAward. Halvard Buhaug is Research Professor at the Peace Research Institute Oslo and Professor of Political Science at the Norwegian University of Science and Technology. He received the 2006 Royal Norwegian Society of Sci- ences and Letters award for excellent research by young scholars in human sciences. Recent academic publications include articles in the Journal of Conflict Resolution, Global Environmental Change, International Security, International Organization, andProceedings of the National Academy of SciencesoftheUSA. CambridgeStudiesinContentiousPolitics Editors MarkBeissinger PrincetonUniversity JackA.Goldstone GeorgeMasonUniversity MichaelHanagan VassarCollege DougMcAdam StanfordUniversityandCenterforAdvancedStudyinthe BehavioralSciences SarahA.Soule StanfordUniversity SuzanneStaggenborg UniversityofPittsburgh SidneyTarrow CornellUniversity CharlesTilly(d.2008) ColumbiaUniversity ElisabethJ.Wood YaleUniversity DeborahYashar PrincetonUniversity RonaldAminzadeetal.,SilenceandVoiceintheStudyofContentious Politics JavierAuyero,RoutinePoliticsandViolenceinArgentina:TheGray ZoneofStatePower W.LanceBennettandAlexandraSegerberg,TheLogicofConnective Action:DigitalMediaandthePersonalizationofContentious Politics CliffordBob,TheMarketingofRebellion:Insurgents,Media,and InternationalActivism CharlesBrockett,PoliticalMovementsandViolenceinCentralAmerica ValerieBunceandSharonWolchik,DefeatingAuthoritarianLeadersin PostcommunistCountries Lars-ErikCederman,KristianSkredeGleditsch,andHalvardBuhaug, Inequality,Grievances,andCivilWar ChristianDavenport,MediaBias,Perspective,andStateRepression GeraldF.Davis,DougMcAdam,W.RichardScott,andMayerN.Zald, SocialMovementsandOrganizationTheory DonatelladellaPorta,ClandestinePoliticalViolence ToddA.Eisenstadt,Politics,Identity,andMexico’sIndigenousRights Movements DanielQ.Gillion,ThePoliticalPowerofProtest:MinorityActivism andShiftsinPublicPolicy JackA.Goldstone,editor,States,Parties,andSocialMovements TamaraKay,NAFTAandthePoliticsofLaborTransnationalism ContinuedaftertheIndex Inequality, Grievances, and Civil War LARS-ERIK CEDERMAN CenterforComparativeandInternationalStudies, ETHZu¨rich KRISTIAN SKREDE GLEDITSCH UniversityofEssexandPeaceResearchInstituteOslo HALVARD BUHAUG PeaceResearchInstituteOslo 32AvenueoftheAmericas,NewYork,ny10013-2473,usa CambridgeUniversityPressispartoftheUniversityofCambridge. ItfurtherstheUniversity’smissionbydisseminatingknowledgeinthepursuitofeducation, learningandresearchatthehighestinternationallevelsofexcellence. www.cambridge.org Informationonthistitle:www.cambridge.org/9781107603042 ©Lars-ErikCederman,KristianSkredeGleditsch,andHalvardBuhaug2013 Thispublicationisincopyright.Subjecttostatutoryexception andtotheprovisionsofrelevantcollectivelicensingagreements, noreproductionofanypartmaytakeplacewithoutthewritten permissionofCambridgeUniversityPress. Firstpublished2013 PrintedintheUnitedStatesofAmerica AcatalogrecordforthispublicationisavailablefromtheBritishLibrary. LibraryofCongressCataloginginPublicationData Cederman,Lars-Erik,1963– Inequality,grievances,andcivilwar/Lars-ErikCederman,CenterforComparativeand InternationalStudies,ETHZu¨rich;KristianSkredeGleditsch,UniversityofEssexandPeace ResearchInstituteOslo;HalvardBuhaug,PeaceResearchInstituteOslo. pagescm.–(Cambridgestudiesincontentiouspolitics) Includesbibliographicalreferencesandindex. isbn978-1-107-01742-9(hardback)–isbn978-1-107-60304-2(pbk.) 1.Civilwar–Socialaspects. 2.Equality. 3.Humanrights. I.Gleditsch,KristianSkrede, 1971– II.Buhaug,Halvard,1972– III.Title. jc491.c374 2013 303.6ʹ4–dc23 2013001656 isbn978-1-107-01742-9Hardback isbn978-1-107-60304-2Paperback CambridgeUniversityPresshasnoresponsibilityforthepersistenceoraccuracyofurlsfor externalorthird-partyInternetWebsitesreferredtointhispublicationanddoesnotguarantee thatanycontentonsuchWebsitesis,orwillremain,accurateorappropriate. Contents Tables pageviii Figures ix Preface xi 1. Introduction 1 parti: theoriesandconcepts 2. InequalityandGrievancesintheCivilWarLiterature 11 3. FromHorizontalInequalitytoCivilWarviaGrievances 30 partii: empiricalanalysisofcivilwaronset 4. PoliticalExclusionandCivilWar 57 5. EconomicInequalityandCivilWar 93 6. TransborderEthnicKinandCivilWar 119 7. Country-LevelInequalitiesandCivilWar 143 partiii: beyondcivilwaronset 8. TheDurationandOutcomeofCivilWars 171 9. ConclusionsforTheoryandPolicy 205 References 227 Index 251 vii Tables 4.1. Comparingexcludedandincludedgroups’conflict propensities page71 4.2. Ethnicgroups’conflictpropensitybypower-access category 72 4.3. Politicalhorizontalinequalityandgroup-levelonsetofcivil war,1946–2009 73 5.1. Economichorizontalinequalityandgroup-levelonsetof civilwar,1991–2009 108 6.1. TEKandgroup-levelonsetofcivilwar,1946–2009 132 7.1. Meansamplevaluesbyconflictoutcome,1991–2009 154 7.2. Logitmodelofcivilwaronset,1991–2009 155 7.3. Multinomiallogitmodelsofcivilwaronset,1991–2009 157 7.4. Highhorizontalinequalityin1999andcivilwaronset, 2000–9 161 7.5. Highhorizontalinequalityin2009withoutconflict, 1991–2009 164 7.6. Summaryoffindings 165 8.1. Approachestocivilwardynamics/duration 175 8.2. Coxproportionalhazardregressionestimatesof termination,1946–2009 194 8.3. Multinomiallogitbyoutcometype(toconflict continuation),1946–2009 197 8.4. Coxproportionalhazardregressionofconflict termination,conflictlevel,1946–2009 203 9.1. Asummaryoftheconfirmedhypothesesofthisbook 206 9.2. Top-tencountrieswithlargestexcludedanddiscriminated sharesofthepopulationin2009 221 viii Figures 3.1. Thecausalpathfrominequalitiestoonsetthrough grievances page36 3.2. Thecausalpathfromhorizontalinequalitiestogrievances 37 3.3. Thecausalpathfromgrievancestocivilwaronset 44 3.4. Grievance-basedmechanismasspuriousexplanation 51 3.5. Grievancesbypassedthroughreversecausation 52 4.1. Thepolitymodelwithincludedandexcludedgroups 59 4.2. Comparingtheeffectofpoweraccessstatusoncivilwar onset 75 4.3. ComparingtheeffectoncivilwaronsetforEPRcategories 76 4.4. Theeffectofstatusreversalsontheprobabilityofcivilwar onset 77 4.5. Conflictpropensityofincludedandexcludedgroupsasa functionoftheirrelativesize 78 4.6. Conflictpropensityasafunctionofthenumberofthe group’spreviousconflictonsets 79 5.1. G-EconcellsforYugoslaviaoverlaidwithGeoEPRgroup polygonsforSlovenesandAlbanians 103 5.2. Resultofspatialwealthestimationforgroupsin Yugoslavia 104 5.3. ResultofspatialwealthestimationforgroupsintheSudan 105 5.4. ResultofspatialwealthestimationforgroupsinMyanmar 106 5.5. Conflictprobabilityforgroupslesswealthythanthe countryaverage 109 5.6. Conflictprobabilityforgroupswealthierthanthecountry average 110 5.7. Comparingtheeffectofrelativepovertyontheconflict probabilityofincludedandexcludedethnicgroups 111 ix