Indus River Basin. Water security and sustainability PDF
Preview Indus River Basin. Water security and sustainability
INDUS RIVER BASIN INDUS RIVER BASIN Water Security and Sustainability Edited by S I. K ADIQ HAN UniversityCorporationforAtmosphericResearch(UCAR)at NOAANationalWaterCenter,Tuscaloosa,AL,UnitedStates T E. A III HOMAS DAMS TerraPredictions,LLC,Blacksburg,VA,UnitedStates Elsevier Radarweg29,POBox211,1000AEAmsterdam,Netherlands TheBoulevard,LangfordLane,Kidlington,OxfordOX51GB,UnitedKingdom 50HampshireStreet,5thFloor,Cambridge,MA02139,UnitedStates #2019ElsevierInc.Allrightsreserved. Nopartofthispublicationmaybereproducedortransmittedinanyformorbyanymeans,electronicor mechanical,includingphotocopying,recording,oranyinformationstorageandretrievalsystem,without permissioninwritingfromthepublisher.Detailsonhowtoseekpermission,furtherinformationabout thePublisher’spermissionspoliciesandourarrangementswithorganizationssuchastheCopyrightClearance CenterandtheCopyrightLicensingAgency,canbefoundatourwebsite:www.elsevier.com/permissions. ThisbookandtheindividualcontributionscontainedinitareprotectedundercopyrightbythePublisher (otherthanasmaybenotedherein). Notices Knowledgeandbestpracticeinthisfieldareconstantlychanging.Asnewresearchandexperience broadenourunderstanding,changesinresearchmethods,professionalpractices,ormedicaltreatment maybecomenecessary. Practitionersandresearchersmustalwaysrelyontheirownexperienceandknowledgeinevaluatingandusingany information,methods,compounds,orexperimentsdescribedherein.Inusingsuchinformationormethodsthey shouldbemindfuloftheirownsafetyandthesafetyofothers,includingpartiesforwhomtheyhaveaprofessional responsibility. Tothefullestextentofthelaw,neitherthePublishernortheauthors,contributors,oreditors,assumeanyliability foranyinjuryand/ordamagetopersonsorpropertyasamatterofproductsliability,negligenceorotherwise,or fromanyuseoroperationofanymethods,products,instructions,orideascontainedinthematerialherein. LibraryofCongressCataloging-in-PublicationData AcatalogrecordforthisbookisavailablefromtheLibraryofCongress BritishLibraryCataloguing-in-PublicationData AcataloguerecordforthisbookisavailablefromtheBritishLibrary ISBN:978-0-12-812782-7 ForinformationonallElsevierpublicationsvisitour websiteathttps://www.elsevier.com/books-and-journals Publisher:CandiceJanco AcquisitionEditor:LouisaHutchins EditorialProjectManager:EmilyThomson ProductionProjectManager:PremKumarKaliamoorthi CoverDesigner:GregHarris TypesetbySPiGlobal,India Dedication To Anayah,Haris,Eshal &Ruby for infusing allthe distractions andchaos in my life. SadiqI.Khan To all those who came before usand especially those who makeusbetterpeople. ThomasE.AdamsIII v Contributors ThomasE.AdamsIII TerraPredictions,LLC, Security,UniversityofAgriculture,Faisalabad, Blacksburg,VA,UnitedStates Pakistan MuhammadAkram WaterandPower ZacharyFlamig CenterforDataIntensive DevelopmentAuthority,Pakistan Science,UniversityofChicago,Chicago,IL, AkhtarAli RASKnowledgeHub,Lahore, UnitedStates Pakistan NathanForsythe WaterResourcesResearch DavidR.Archer JBATrust,Skipton,United Group,SchoolofEngineering,Newcastle University,Newcastle,UnitedKingdom Kingdom ZaheerAhmadBabar FloodForecasting HayleyFowler WaterResourcesResearch Group,SchoolofEngineering,Newcastle Division,PakistanMeteorologicalDepartment, University,Newcastle,UnitedKingdom Lahore,Pakistan SamjwalRatnaBajracharya International DavidGochis NationalCenterfor AtmosphericResearch,Boulder,CO, CentreforIntegratedMountainDevelopment, UnitedStates Kathmandu,Nepal MuhammadBasharat International MuraliKrishnaGumma InternationalCrops ResearchInstitutefortheSemi-AridTropics WaterloggingandSalinityResearchInstitute (ICRISAT),Patancheru,India (IWASRI),PakistanWaterandPower DevelopmentAuthority(WAPDA),Lahore, YangHong SchoolofCivilEngineeringand Pakistan EnvironmentalSciences,TheUniversityof DanieleBocchiola DepartmentofCiviland Oklahoma,Norman,OK,UnitedStates EnvironmentalEngineering,Politecnicodi VivekanandHonnungar NationalCenterfor Milano,Milano,Italy AtmosphericResearch,Boulder,CO,United Ju€rgenBo€hner CentreforEarthSystem States ResearchandSustainability(CEN),Instituteof VijayRatanKhadgi InternationalCentrefor Geography,UniversityofHamburg,Hamburg, IntegratedMountainDevelopment, Germany Kathmandu,Nepal TobiasBolch MountainCryosphereResearch SadiqI.Khan UniversityCorporationfor Group,DepartmentofGeography,University AtmosphericResearch(UCAR)atNOAA ofZurich,Zurich,Switzerland NationalWaterCenter,Tuscaloosa,AL, OleksiyBoyko DepartmentofCivil UnitedStates Engineering,UniversityofSiegen,Siegen, AsifKhan DepartmentofCivilEngineering, Germany UniversityofEngineeringandTechnology, JohnF.Burkhart UniversityofOslo,Oslo, JalozaiCampus,Peshawar,Pakistan Norway MuhammadRiazKhan FloodForecasting MuhammadJehanzebMasud Division,PakistanMeteorologicalDepartment, Cheema DepartmentofIrrigationand Lahore,Pakistan Drainage;PrecisionAgriculture,Centerfor KrishnanRaghavan IndianInstituteofTropical AdvancedStudiesinAgricultureandFood Meteorology,Pune,India xi xii CONTRIBUTORS Young-JooKwak InternationalCentrefor TomH.Rientjes DepartmentofWater WaterHazardandRiskManagement Resources,FacultyITC,UniversityofTwente, (ICHARM-UNESCO),PublicWorksResearch Enschede,TheNetherlands Institute,Tsukuba,Japan,Departmentof AyeshaShahid MastersofCityPlanning, EnvironmentalInformation,TokyoUniversity MassachusettsInstituteofTechnology, ofInformationSciences,Chiba,Japan Cambridge,MA,UnitedStates LuLi NORCENorwegianResearchCentre; FinuShrestha InternationalCentrefor BjerknesCentreforClimateResearch,Bergen, IntegratedMountainDevelopment, Norway Kathmandu,Nepal SudanBikashMaharjan InternationalCentre ArunBhaktaShrestha InternationalCenterfor forIntegratedMountainDevelopment, IntegratedMountainDevelopment, Kathmandu,Nepal Kathmandu,Nepal Micheld.S.Mesquita NORCENorwegian MandiraSinghShrestha InternationalCentre ResearchCentre;BjerknesCentreforClimate forIntegratedMountainDevelopment, Research,Bergen,Norway Kathmandu,Nepal YvanJ.Orsolini BjerknesCentreforClimate AfreenSiddiqi MassachusettsInstituteof Research,Bergen;NorwegianInstituteforAir Technology,Cambridge,MA,UnitedStates Research,Kjeller,Norway AndreaSoncini DepartmentofCiviland IndraniPal ColumbiaWaterCenter,Columbia EnvironmentalEngineering,Politecnicodi University;NOAACooperativeRemote Milano,Milano,Italy SensingScienceandTechnology(CREST) ShahzadSultan FloodForecastingDivision, Center,TheCityUniversityofNewYork, PakistanMeteorologicalDepartment,Lahore, NewYork,NY,UnitedStates Pakistan AshwiniM.Panandiker TheEnergyand PardhasaradhiTeluguntla U.S.Geological ResourcesInstitute(TERI),Goa,India Survey(USGS),WesternGeographicScience JonggeolPark InternationalCentrefor Center,Flagstaff,AZ,USA WaterHazardandRiskManagement PrasadS.Thenkabail U.S.GeologicalSurvey (ICHARM-UNESCO),PublicWorksResearch (USGS),WesternGeographicScienceCenter, Institute,Tsukuba,Japan,Departmentof Flagstaff,AZ,USA EnvironmentalInformation,TokyoUniversity ShabehulHasson CentreforEarthSystem ofInformationSciences,Chiba,Japan ResearchandSustainability(CEN),Instituteof DavidPritchard WaterResourcesResearch Geography,UniversityofHamburg,Hamburg, Group,SchoolofEngineering,Newcastle Germany;DepartmentofSpaceSciences, University,Newcastle,UnitedKingdom InstituteofSpaceTechnology,Islamabad, MuhammadUzairQamar Departmentof Pakistan IrrigationandDrainage,Universityof VidyunmalaVeldore DetNorskeVeritas— Agriculture,Faisalabad,Pakistan GermanischerLloyd,Oslo,Norway AsadSarwarQureshi InternationalCenterfor NishaWagle InternationalCenterforIntegrated BiosalineAgriculture(ICBA),Dubai,United MountainDevelopment,Kathmandu,Nepal ArabEmirates JamesL.Wescoat,Jr MassachusettsInstituteof RupakRajbhandari TribhuvanUniversity, Technology,Cambridge,MA,UnitedStates Kathmandu,Nepal AnthonyM.Whitbread InternationalCrops PaoloReggiani DepartmentofCivil ResearchInstitutefortheSemi-AridTropics Engineering,UniversityofSiegen,Siegen, (ICRISAT),Patancheru,India Germany Foreword The Indus River Basin (IRB) is shared by four countries, Pakistan, India, China, and Afghanistan. Within the context of sustainability, it is appropriate to summarize how they differ in their economic activity and needs in relation to their demand for water within the basin. Pakistan,withthelargestproportionofthebasinarea(47%)andpopulation(61%),hasthe greatestdependencyontheIndusRiverwiththeJhelumandChenabtributaries.TheIndusis theverylifebloodofPakistan,andthedemandforwaterisgrowingrapidly.Accordingtothe 2017census,Pakistannowhasapopulationof212million,makingitthesixthlargestcountry bypopulationintheworld,andmostofthatpopulationiswithinanddependentontheIndus RiverBasin.Populationgrowthremainscloseto2%perannumwithatotaladdedpopulation each year of 3.8 million. The requirement for water, food, energy, and services for such an increaseindemandwouldchallengethemostdevelopedeconomybutisevenmoreexacting for a country whose primary source ofincome isbased onagriculture. TheIndiancontributiontothebasinareaisapproximately39%,anditspopulationis35% ofthetotalbasin.WhiletheIRBmakesaconsiderablecontributiontotheIndianeconomyin agricultural production, it represents less than 14% of the total area of thecountry andless than 12% of its population. Population growth is lower than in Pakistan, at around 1.3% per annum. With a more diverse national economy, India is better positioned to withstand environmental shocks to the IRB withinits jurisdiction. Afghanistan’scontributiontothebasinareaisjust6%,anditspopulationis3%,mainlyin theKabulRiverBasin.However,theKabulRivercontributesapproximatelyaquarterofthe country’sfreshwater,and23%oftheAfghanpopulationliveintheKabulBasin,includingthe rapidlygrowingcityofKabul.Afterdecadesofwarandpoliticalturmoil,itisattemptingto develop an agricultural economy based on irrigation and provide basic power needs. It is therefore not surprising that there is strong national pressure to use the water within its own territory, but with strong opposition from downstream Pakistan, which has already developedwater infrastructures in the basin. About 8% of the basin lies in China on the fringes of the Tibetan Plateau and is sparsely populated but significant as the source of the main Indus Riverand theSutlejRiver. Sustainability has political, environmental, and social dimensions. Sustainability will re- quire active cooperation between the constituent countries. The Indus Water Treaty of 1960 provides rules of cooperation and sharing of water between India and Pakistan, but itisobservedintheletterofthelawratherthaninaspiritofcooperation.Itfailstoaddress the legitimate interests of Afghanistan and China and is concerned with abstractions from river flow and not from the shared alluvial groundwater. It also fails to address problems ofwaterqualityorprovideforenvironmentalresidualflowstoensurethehealthoftheriver to the estuary. This book fleshes out the competingand conflicting demands. xiii xiv FOREWORD Environmentalconcernsfocusontheroleofclimatechangeandvariabilityandconsequent influences on river flow. It is imperative therefore to improve understanding of processes, trends, and variability of climate and river flow as a basis for responding to extremes of drought (e.g., from 1998 to 2002) and floods (e.g., 2010 and 2011) and planning for future added risks that may develop as a result of climate change. While the beneficiaries of im- proved understanding are mainly on the irrigated plains, the flow in the river and its vari- ability are largely driven by what happens in its mountain headwaters. Understanding andanalysisdemanddata.AlthoughnationalagenciesinPakistanandIndiaestablishedcli- mate and flow networks in the mountain source areas in the 1950s, these networks remain sparse,limitedtolowerelevations,andlargelyrestrictedwithinnationalboundaries.Some progresshasbeenmadeinunderstandingpasttrendsandvariability,butattemptsatclimate andflowprojectionsbasedonthelimiteddataprovideconflictingresults,ascanbeseenfrom the detailedanalysis provided inthis book. Thefocusofanalysishasshiftedfromground-baseddatatosatelliteremotelysenseddata combinedwithmeteorologicalreassessmentandavarietyofmodelingapproachestoattempt explanation of climate patterns that are sometimes at variance with global norms and with trends in Central Himalaya. Of particular interest has been the atypical downward trend insummertemperaturesthathaveresultedinreducedglacialablationanddownwardtrends in river flow from high-level catchments. This pattern of behavior is now sufficiently well established to begiven thename“Karakoram anomaly.” Downstream,Pakistanfacesanetworkofinterlinkedchallengesinwhichwaterresources playakeyrole.Waterresourcesforirrigationwillgraduallydiminishasreservoirstoragein the major controlling reservoirs of Tarbela and Mangla is taken up by sediment. Reservoir sedimentationwillalsolimittheabilitytogeneratehydroelectricpowertomeetthegrowing demand for domestic and industrial energy. Proposed new dams are shelved foreconomic andpoliticalreasons.Furtherpressingproblemsaretheimpactofwaterloggingandsalinity onproductiveagriculture,over-abstractionofgroundwater,andcompetitionbetweenirriga- tiondemandandlegitimatedemandsfordomestic,industrial,andenvironmentaluse.Water resources,especiallyinPakistan,arealreadyhighlystressedandwillbecomeincreasinglyso with projected population changes. Thecontributionstothebookshowafascinatingvarietyofapproachesandrepresentes- sentialstepstowardthedefinitionifnotthesolutionofproblemsofincreasingsignificanceto thegrowingpopulationoftheIRB.Itshouldthereforebeessentialreadingforpolicymakers ineachoftheconstituentcountries,forwaterresourcesandenvironmentalmanagers,andfor researchersinclimateandhydrology,andforallreaderswithaconcernfortheprosperityand well-being of those who live in theIndus River Basin. David Archer NewcastleUniversity,NewcastleuponTyne,England JBA Consulting Engineers and Scientists,Skipton,England Acknowledgments Firstandforemost,theeditorshighlyvaluetheunconditionalsupportofeachofthecon- tributing authors who synthesized their research that appeared in a number of published scholarly manuscripts. We express gratitude to numerous collaborators from the academic aswellasthepublicsector.ThefacultyandstudentsoftheSchoolofCivilandEnvironmental Engineering(SCEE)attheNationalUniversityofScienceandTechnology(NUST),theSchool ofCivilEngineeringandEnvironmentalScienceattheUniversityofOklahoma,andQuaid-i- AzamUniversityareacknowledgedfortheircontributions.Weareverygratefultotheteam at thePakistan Meteorological Department for providing hydrometeorological data. Devel- opmentofsomeofthefloodforecastingworkfortheIndusRiverBasinhasbeensignificantly enhanced through funding under the Pakistan-US Science and Technology Cooperation Program managed by the United States National Academy of Sciences. The editors would be remiss without acknowledging Emily Thomson with Elsevier for her help, guidance, and patience in putting this book together. We are humbled by the opportunity to bring these chapters to the hydrologic andwater resources community. xv
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