Inductive Reasoning: Experimental, Developmental, and Computational Approaches

377 Pages·2007·2.66 MB·English

by  Aidan Feeney

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INDUCTIVE REASONING
Without inductive reasoning, we couldn’t generalize from one instance to an-
other,derivescientifichypotheses,orpredictthatthesunwillriseagaintomor-
rowmorning.Despitetheprevalenceofinductivereasoning,booksonthistopic
arerare.Indeed,thisisthefirstbookonthepsychologyofinductivereasoning
in twenty years. The chapters survey recent advances in the study of inductive
reasoningandaddressquestionsabouthowitdevelops,theroleofknowledgein
induction,howbesttomodelpeople’sreasoning,andhowinductionrelatesto
otherformsofthinking.Writtenbyexpertsinphilosophy,developmentalscience,
cognitivepsychology,andcomputationalmodeling,thecontributionsherewill
be of interest to a general cognitive science audience as well as to those with a
morespecializedinterestinthestudyofthinking.
AidanFeeneyisSeniorLecturerinPsychologyatDurhamUniversity.Hereceived
hisB.A.inpsychologyfromTrinityCollege,Dublin,in1992andcompletedhis
Ph.D.attheCenterforThinkingandLanguageattheUniversityofPlymouth.He
wasappointedLecturerintheDepartmentofPsychologyatDurhamUniversity
in1998andbecameSeniorLecturerin2005.Dr.Feeney’sresearchhasbeensup-
portedbyanumberofgrantsfromtheEconomicandSocialResearchCouncil
(UK).Hehaspublishedapproximatelythirtyjournalarticles,bookchapters,and
papersonthepsychologyofhypothesistestingandreasoning.
EvanHeitiscurrentlyProfessorofPsychologyandCognitiveScience,andFound-
ingFaculty,attheUniversityofCalifornia,Merced.Previously,Dr.Heitwason
thefacultyinthePsychologyDepartmentoftheUniversityofWarwick,UK.He
hasundergraduatedegreesincomputerscienceandpsychologyfromtheUniver-
sity of Pennsylvania and a Ph.D. from Stanford University. He also carried out
postdoctoralresearchattheUniversityofMichiganandNorthwesternUniversity.
ProfessorHeithaspublishedmorethanfiftypapersonthepsychologyofreason-
ing,memory,andcategorization.HisresearchhasbeenfundedbytheNational
ScienceFoundation,theNationalInstitutesofHealth,theEconomicandSocial
ResearchCouncil(UK),andtheBiotechnologyandBiologicalSciencesResearch
Council(UK).HeiscurrentlyontheeditorialboardofMemoryandCognition
andtheJournalofExperimentalPsychology:Learning,Memory,andCognitionand
isAssociateEditoroftheJournalofMemoryandLanguage.
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Inductive Reasoning
Experimental, Developmental, and
Computational Approaches
Editedby
AIDAN FEENEY
DurhamUniversity
EVAN HEIT
UniversityofCalifornia,Merced
iii
CAMBRIDGEUNIVERSITYPRESS
Cambridge, New York, Melbourne, Madrid, Cape Town, Singapore, São Paulo
Cambridge University Press
The Edinburgh Building, Cambridge CB28RU, UK
Published in the United States of America by Cambridge University Press, New York
www.cambridge.org
Information on this title: www.cambridge.org/9780521856485
© Cambridge University Press 2007
This publication is in copyright. Subject to statutory exception and to the provision of
relevant collective licensing agreements, no reproduction of any part may take place
without the written permission of Cambridge University Press.
First published in print format 2007
ISBN-13 978-0-511-34179-3 eBook (EBL)
ISBN-10 0-511-34179-2 eBook (EBL)
ISBN-13 978-0-521-85648-5 hardback
ISBN-10 0-521-85648-5 hardback
ISBN-13 978-0-521-67244-3 paperback
ISBN-10 0-521-67244-9 paperback
Cambridge University Press has no responsibility for the persistence or accuracy of urls
for external or third-party internet websites referred to in this publication, and does not
guarantee that any content on such websites is, or will remain, accurate or appropriate.
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Contents
ListofFigures pagevii
ListofTables ix
ListofContributors xi
Preface xiii
1 WhatIsInductionandWhyStudyIt? 1
EvanHeit
2 TheDevelopmentofInductiveReasoning 25
BrettK.Hayes
3 InterpretingAsymmetriesofProjectioninChildren’s
InductiveReasoning 55
DouglasL.MedinandSandraWaxman
4 PropertyGeneralizationasCausalReasoning 81
BobRehder
5 AvailabilityinCategory-BasedInduction 114
PatrickShafto,JohnD.Coley,andAnnaVitkin
6 FromSimilaritytoChance 137
SergeyBlok,DanielOsherson,andDouglasL.Medin
7 Theory-BasedBayesianModelsofInductiveReasoning 167
JoshuaB.Tenenbaum,CharlesKemp,andPatrickShafto
8 UseofSingleorMultipleCategoriesinCategory-Based
Induction 205
GregoryL.MurphyandBrianH.Ross
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vi Contents
9 AbductiveInference:FromPhilosophicalAnalysistoNeural
Mechanisms 226
PaulThagard
10 MathematicalInductionandInductioninMathematics 248
LanceJ.RipsandJenniferAsmuth
11 Induction,Deduction,andArgumentStrengthinHuman
ReasoningandArgumentation 269
MikeOaksfordandUlrikeHahn
12 IndividualDifferences,DualProcesses,andInduction 302
AidanFeeney
13 TaxonomizingInduction 328
StevenA.Sloman
Index 345
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ListofFigures
1.1 Criterion-shiftaccountofdeductionandinduction. page 9
2.1 SchematicstimulusexamplefromThompsonandHayes
(2005). 39
2.2 MeanproportionofcausalchoicesontheThompsonand
Hayes(2005)causalinductiontask. 40
4.1 ResultsfromHadjichristidisetal.(2004),Experiment2. 88
4.2 ResultsfromRehder(inpress),Experiment3. 90
4.3 ResultsfromNair(2005). 93
4.4 ResultsfromRehder(inpress),Experiment1. 99
4.5 ResultsfromRehder(inpress),Experiment3. 101
4.6 NetworktopologiestestedinRehderandHastie(2004),
Experiment2. 104
4.7 GeneralizationratingsfromRehderandHastie(2004),
Experiment1. 106
6.1 Predictedversusobservedprobabilitiesforthe200arguments. 149
6.2 Predictedversusobservedprobabilitiesforthirty-two
arguments. 150
6.3 Predictedversusobservedprobabilitiesforthefoursetsof
stimuli. 162
7.1 (a)Afolktaxonomyofmammalspecies.(b–e)Examplesof
mutationhistories. 180
7.2 Onesimulatedsamplefromthecausal-transmissionmodel,
forthefoodwebshowninFigure7.4a. 185
7.3 Comparingmodelsofpropertyinductionwithhuman
judgments,forreasoninginadefaultbiologicalcontextwith
genericanatomicalorphysiologicalproperties. 190
7.4 Multiplerelationalstructuresoverthesamedomainsof
species. 195
vii
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viii ListofFigures
7.5 Comparingmodelsofinductionwithhumanjudgments,for
twokindsofproperties:diseasepropertiesandgenetic
properties. 196
8.1 AnexamplesimilartothecategoriesusedinMurphyandRoss
(1994),illustratingthemaincomparisonofthatsetofstudies. 210
9.1 Theprocessofabductiveinference. 229
9.2 Abductionasaneuralprocess. 234
10.1 Stimulusproblemsfromastudyofgeometryproblemsolving
(adaptedfromKoedinger&Anderson,1991,Figure2). 262
10.2 Stimulusproblemforastudyofnon-Euclideangeometry. 263
12.1 InteractionbetweenAbilityandConclusionTypefrom
Feeney,Shafto,andDunning(inpress). 321
12.2 MeansinvolvedintheinteractionbetweenAbilityandValidity
fromFeeney,Dunning,andOver(insubmission). 323