Indonesian electoral behaviour : a statistical perspective

463 Pages·2004·6.32 MB·English

by  Aris Ananta

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The Institute of Southeast Asian Studies (ISEAS) was established as
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First published in Singapore in 2004 by
Institute of Southeast Asian Studies
30 Heng Mui Keng Terrace
Pasir Panjang
Singapore 119614
E-mail: [email protected]
Website: <http://bookshop.iseas.edu.sg>
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a
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of the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies.
© 2004 Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, Singapore
The responsibility for facts and opinions in this publication rests exclusively with the
authors and their interpretations do not necessarily reflect the views or the policy of
the publisher or its supporters.
ISEAS Library Cataloguing-in-Publication Data
Ananta, Aris.
Indonesian electoral behaviour: a statistical perspective/Aris Ananta, Evi
Nurvidya Arifin, Leo Suryadinata.
(Indonesia’s population series; no. 2)
1. Voting research—Indonesia.
2. Voting—Social aspects—Indonesia.
3. Voting—Economic aspects—Indonesia.
4. Elections—Indonesia.
5. Voting—Indonesia—Statistics.
6. Indonesia— Population—Statistics.
7. Indonesia—Social conditions—Statistics.
8. Indonesia—Economic conditions—Statistics.
I. Arifin, Evi Nurvidya.
II. Suryadinata, Leo, 1941–
JQ778 A54 2004
ISBN 981-230-224-7 (soft cover)
ISBN 981-230-227-1 (hard cover)
Typeset by Superskill Graphics Pte Ltd
Printed in Singapore by Seng Lee Press Pte Ltd
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Contents
List of Figures viii
List of Tables xi
Message from the Director xxvi
Preface xxvii
Maps xxx
Chapter 1
Introduction: Explaining Voting Behaviour in Indonesia 1
1.1 Literature on Indonesian Elections 1
1.2 The Current Study: Strengths, Weaknesses, and
Relevance 3
1.3 Explaining Indonesian Voting Behaviour 6
Chapter 2
The Cultural Variables: Religion and Ethnicity 11
2.1 Religion 11
2.2 Ethnicity 16
Chapter 3
The Socio-economic Variables (1): Education and its
Geographical Composition 97
3.1 Educational Attainment in the Provinces 99
3.2 Educational Attainment in the Districts 101
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VI CONTENTS
Chapter 4
The Socio-economic Variables (2): Migrants and the
Urban Population 139
4.1 Migrants 141
4.2 The Urban Population 144
Chapter 5
Socio-economic Variables (3): Per Capita Income and Poverty 217
5.1 Per Capita Income (in rupiah) 218
5.2 Number of Poor People 219
Chapter 6
Results of the 1999 Election: National and Provincial Votes 249
6.1 The National Scene 249
6.2 The Provincial Scene 251
Chapter 7
Results of the 1999 Election: District Votes 285
7.1 PDI-P 286
7.2 Golkar 288
7.3 PKB 289
7.4 PPP 290
7.5 PAN 291
7.6 PBB 291
7.7 PK 292
7.8 Other Parties 293
Chapter 8
Culture and Electoral Behaviour: Testing Religious and
Ethnic Loyalties 367
8.1 Religious Loyalty 369
8.2 Ethnic Loyalty 372
8.3 Conclusion 375
Chapter 9
Other Variables and Electoral Behaviour: Testing the
Socio-economic Factors 391
9.1 PDI-P 391
9.2 Golkar 394
9.3 PKB 395
9.4 PPP 396
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CONTENTS VII
9.5 PAN 397
9.6 PBB 398
9.7 PK 399
9.8 Conclusion 400
Chapter 10
Conclusion: Findings and Significance 409
10.1 Religious and Ethnic Loyalties 409
10.2 Do the Findings Support the Popular Perceptions
of the Parties? 410
10.3 More Continuity than Change 411
10.4 Implications of the Findings for the Parties 412
10.4.1 PDI-P 412
10.4.2 Golkar 413
10.4.3 PKB 413
10.4.4 PPP 414
10.4.5 PAN 414
10.4.6 PBB 415
10.4.7 PK 415
10.5 Closing Remarks 415
Appendix 1: Data and Methods 419
Appendix 2: Names of Districts by 1999 Election
and 2000 Census 421
Selected References 423
About the Authors 429
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List of Figures
2.1.1 Percentage of Muslims and Non-Muslims by Region:
Indonesia, 2000 21
2.1.2 Percentage of Muslims and Non-Muslims by Province:
Indonesia, 2000 22
2.2.1 Percentage of Javanese and Non-Javanese by Region:
Indonesia, 2000 23
2.2.2 Percentage of Javanese and Non-Javanese by Province:
Indonesia, 2000 24
3.1 Educational Composition: Java and the
Outer Islands, 2000 104
3.2 Educational Composition by Province: Indonesia 2000 105
3.3 Educational Composition by Provincial Capital Cities:
Indonesia, 2000 106
4.1.1 Percentage of Inter-province and Inter-district Migrants
by Province: Indonesia, 2000 148
4.1.2 Concentration of Migrants in Each Province:
Indonesia, 2000 149
4.2.1 Urbanization Rate by Province: Indonesia, 2000 150
5.1 Per Capita Income by Province: Indonesia, 1998 223
5.2 Poverty Rate by Province: Indonesia, 1999 224
6.1.1 Vote Composition by Party: Indonesia,
1999 General Election 259
6.1.2 Vote Composition by Party and Region: Indonesia,
1999 General Election 260
6.2.1 Vote Composition by Party in “Old” and
“New” Provinces 261
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LIST OF FIGURES IX
6.2.2 Vote Composition by Party and Province: Indonesia,
1999 General Election 262
6.2.3 Percentage of PDI-P Votes by Province:
Indonesia, 1999 General Election 263
6.2.4 Winning Party by Region: Indonesia,
1999 General Election 264
6.2.5 Percentage of Golkar Votes by Province:
Indonesia, 1999 General Election 265
6.2.6 Percentage of PKB Votes by Province:
Indonesia, 1999 General Election 266
6.2.7 Percentage of PPP Votes by Province:
Indonesia, 1999 General Election 267
6.2.8 Percentage of PAN Votes by Province:
Indonesia, 1999 General Election 268
6.2.9 Percentage of PBB Votes by Province:
Indonesia, 1999 General Election 269
6.2.10 Percentage of PK Votes by Province:
Indonesia, 1999 General Election 270
6.2.11 Percentage of the Vote for 41 Other Parties
by Province: Indonesia, 1999 General Election 271
7.1 Vote Composition by Party and District:
Nanggroe Aceh Darussalam, 1999 General Election 295
7.2 Vote Composition by Party and District:
North Sumatra, 1999 General Election 296
7.3 Vote Composition by Party and District:
West Sumatra, 1999 General Election 297
7.4 Vote Composition by Party and District:
Riau, 1999 General Election 298
7.5 Vote Composition by Party and District:
Jambi, 1999 General Election 299
7.6 Vote Composition by Party and District:
South Sumatra, 1999 General Election 300
7.7 Vote Composition by Party and District:
Bengkulu, 1999 General Election 301
7.8 Vote Composition by Party and District:
Lampung, 1999 General Election 302
7.9 Vote Composition by Party and District:
Bangka-Belitung, 1999 General Election 303
7.10 Vote Composition by Party and District:
Jakarta, 1999 General Election 304
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X LIST OF FIGURES
7.11 Vote Composition by Party and District:
West Java, 1999 General Election 305
7.12 Vote Composition by Party and District:
Central Java, 1999 General Election 306
7.13 Vote Composition by Party and District:
Yogyakarta, 1999 General Election 307
7.14 Vote Composition by Party and District:
East Java, 1999 General Election 308
7.15 Vote Composition by Party and District:
Banten, 1999 General Election 309
7.16 Vote Composition by Party and District:
Bali, 1999 General Election 310
7.17 Vote Composition by Party and District:
West Nusa Tenggara, 1999 General Election 311
7.18 Vote Composition by Party and District:
East Nusa Tenggara, 1999 General Election 312
7.19 Vote Composition by Party and District:
West Kalimantan, 1999 General Election 313
7.20 Vote Composition by Party and District:
Central Kalimantan, 1999 General Election 314
7.21 Vote Composition by Party and District:
South Kalimantan, 1999 General Election 315
7.22 Vote Composition by Party and District:
East Kalimantan, 1999 General Election 316
7.23 Vote Composition by Party and District:
North Sulawesi, 1999 General Election 317
7.24 Vote Composition by Party and District:
Central Sulawesi, 1999 General Election 318
7.25 Vote Composition by Party and District:
South Sulawesi, 1999 General Election 319
7.26 Vote Composition by Party and District:
Southeast Sulawesi, 1999 General Election 320
7.27 Vote Composition by Party and District:
Gorontalo, 1999 General Election 321
7.28 Vote Composition by Party and District:
Maluku, 1999 General Election 322
7.29 Vote Composition by Party and District:
North Maluku, 1999 General Election 323
7.30 Vote Composition by Party and District:
Papua, 1999 General Election 324
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