Individual and Group Decision Making: Current Issues PDF
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Individual and Group Decision Making Current Issues Individual and Group Decision Making Current Issues Edited by N. John Castellan, Jr. Indiana University 1m LAWRENCE ERLBAUM ASSOCIATES, PUBLISHERS 1993 Hillsdale, New Jersey Hove and London Copyright © 1993 by Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, Inc. All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form, by photostat, microfilm, retrieval system, or any other means, without the prior written ,permission of the publisher. lawrence Erlbaum Associates, Inc., Publishers 365 Broadway Hillsdale, New Jersey 07642 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Individual and group decision making : current issues I edited by N. John Castellan, Jr. p. em. Based on papers presented at the Science Weekend symposia of the 1990 convention of the American Psychological Association. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 0-8058-1090-0 (c.)- ISBN 0-8058-1091-9 (p.) I. Decision-making. 2. Decision-making, Group. I. Castellan, N. John, 1939- BF448.153 1993 302.3-dc20 92-34702 CIP Books published by lawrence Erlbaurn Associates are printed on acid-free paper, and their bindings are chosen for strength and durability. Printed in the United States of America 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 CONTENTS Preface ix I INDIVIDUAL ADDRESSES I 1 Some Practical Judgment and Decision-Making Research Hal R. Arkes 3 2 The Use of Multiple Strategies in Judgment and Choice John W Payne, James R. Bellman, and Eric J Johnson 19 II PROCESSING PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION 41 3 Using Configura! and Dimensional Information Stephen E. Edgell 43 4 Judgment of Nonlinear Contingencies and Applications of Contingencies to Organizational Behavior John E. Sawyer 65 v CONTENTS vii 15 Naturalistic Group Decision Making: Overview and Summary William C. McDaniel 293 Author Index 301 Subject Index 311 PREFACE At the 1990 annual convention of the American Psychological Association, a portion of the meeting was devoted to a "Science Weekend," an exciting program sponsored by the APA Science Directorate and several AP A divi sions. Three program tracks or themes were focal points for the weekend, and one track was Decision Making. The Decision-Making track included two invited addresses and symposia by distinguished scholars in the field. However, because of the strong interest in decision making, the time allot ted for the Science Weekend could not accommodate the diversity and breadth of the field. As a result, additional sessions on decision making were included elsewhere in the meeting. As a participant in one of the symposia and an observer at others, I was struck by the strong interest in the sessions some were standing room only-and the variety of approaches to decision making. During the convention, the idea for this volume took root and was encouraged and nurtured by colleagues. Participants in the convention sym posia and invited addresses were enthusiastic about the possibility of present ing their work in a more coherent and extended form. As a result, this volume consists of two of the invited addresses and three of the symposia from that meeting-Processing Probabilistic Information, Jury Decision Making, and Naturalistic Group Decision Making. As the project developed in consultation with the various contributors, it became clear that we needed more than a simple compilation of manuscripts derived from convention presentations. The participants in each sympo sium share a common vision of research in their particular area and had an ix X PREFACE opportunity to debate and clarify their ideas at the meeting. The ability to provide more extended narratives than possible with specialized journal ar ticles was seen as an opportunity not just to advance the science of decision making, but to provide surveys and tutorials displaying the richness of decision-making methodology in psychology and the behavioral sciences. That methodology extends from detailed models of individual decision making to group decision processes, to jury decision making, to complex decision tasks in natural environments. It is necessary to understand the full range of decision-making methodologies, research, and applications if we are to de velop coherent models and theories of individual decision making and group processes, and if we seek to enhance the decision making and judgment in complex systems. Because the general theme of the volume and its purpose extends beyond the intent of the original presentations, the contributors have rewritten and expanded their presentations. In some cases, they follow the meeting presen tations closely, but in most the meeting presentation was the springboard for the development of the papers that could serve a broad audience from specialists in the field to those who desire an up-to-date compendium of cur rent research. Thus the meeting presentations were the starting points for the final chapters in this volume. Sections II, Ill, and IV of the book could be read independently of the other sections. Each has the benefit of a final summary statement that either syn thesizes all the chapters in the section or points to new directions emanating from the basic research in the area. Taken as a whole, the 15 chapters pro vide an exciting perspective of the field and could form a basic set of read ings for courses on individual and group decision making in a variety of disciplines. To be sure, there are gaps, but the coverage from basic laborato ry research to complex applied group decision processes should challenge researchers and students to pursue the field of decision making as enthusias tic scientists and practitioners. The final editing of this volume took place while I was on leave from Indi ana University and serving as Visiting Scientist and Director for the Deci sion, Risk, and Management Science Program at the National Science Foundation. I am especially grateful to Hollis Heimbouch of Lawrence Erl baum Associates for her early encouragement of the project and to many colleagues in the Society for Judgment and Decision Making who also en couraged the project and offered comments and suggestions on the various chapters. -N. John Castellan, Jr. PART I INDIVIDUAL ADDRESSES
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