Global Power Shift Silvio Beretta Axel Berkofsky Giuseppe Iannini Editors India’s Foreign Policy and Economic Challenges Friends, Enemies and Controversies Global Power Shift Series Editor Xuewu Gu, Center for Global Studies, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany Managing Editor Hendrik W. Ohnesorge, Center for Global Studies, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany Advisory Editors G. John Ikenberry, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA Canrong Jin, Renmin University of Beijing, Beijing, China Srikanth Kondapalli, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, India Beate Neuss, Chemnitz University of Technology, Chemnitz, Germany Carla Norrlof, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada Dingli Shen, Fudan University, Shanghai, China Kazuhiko Togo, Kyoto Sanyo University, Tokyo, Japan Roberto Zoboli, Catholic University of Milan, Milano, Italy Ample empirical evidence points to recent power shifts in multiple areas of interna- tional relations taking place between industrialized countries and emerging powers, as well as between states and non-state actors. However, there is a dearth of theoret- ical interpretation and synthesis of these findings, and a growing need for coherent approaches to understand and measure the transformation. The central issues to be addressed include theoretical questions and empirical puzzles: How can studies of global power shift and the rise of ‘emerging powers’ benefit from existing theories, and which alternative aspects and theoretical approaches might be suitable? How can the meanings, perceptions, dynamics, and consequences of global power shift be determined and assessed? This edited series will include highly innovative research on these topics. It aims to bring together scholars from all major world regions as well as different disciplines, including political science, economics and human geog- raphy. The overall aim is to discuss and possibly blend their different approaches and provide new frameworks for understanding global affairs and the governance of global power shifts. All titles in this series are peer-reviewed. This book series is indexed in Scopus. · · Silvio Beretta Axel Berkofsky Giuseppe Iannini Editors India’s Foreign Policy and Economic Challenges Friends, Enemies and Controversies Editors Silvio Beretta Axel Berkofsky Department of Political and Social Sciences Department of Political and Social Sciences University of Pavia University of Pavia Pavia, Italy Pavia, Italy Giuseppe Iannini Department of Political and Social Sciences University of Pavia Pavia, Italy ISSN 2198-7343 ISSN 2198-7351 (electronic) Global Power Shift ISBN 978-3-031-20269-8 ISBN 978-3-031-20270-4 (eBook) https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-20270-4 © Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2023 This work is subject to copyright. 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Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, expressed or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. The publisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. This Springer imprint is published by the registered company Springer Nature Switzerland AG The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland Foreword India at Core of the Indo-Pacific Space, the Western Waters of the Indian Ocean and Inner Asia: A Timeless Open Space. What Changed after Independence? The Indian Independence Act (15th August, 1947) anticipated the independence promised by former British Prime Minister Clement Richard Attlee for June 1948, and gave life to two independent entities: the Indian Union, which included 25 states, and Pakistan, composed of four provinces and an eastern territory: Bangladesh. The dawn of independence was stained with blood and signed with the blood of ethnic and religious strife, revolts against the British unilateral dictate, individual political ambitions and territorial disputes like the one in Kashmir—a dispute that remains unresolved until the present day. Indian independence resulted in an unbal- anced political and diplomatic situation, which from the very beginning stood in the way of negotiations and diplomacy between India and Pakistan. It is misguided to view the present as an unicum per se, i.e. two regional nuclear powers concerned exclusively with boundaries, religious supremacy, and economic-technological aspi- rations in an allegedly ‘globalized’ world. A world and space characterised by an impending eco-systemic transition and a dominating digitalized reality transforming it into a new ‘liquid’ and digitalized space—one increasingly beyond human control.1 Today, we are confronted with a dimension in which the ‘strategic factor’ dominates in the realms of economic power and individual economic interests, both regional and global. A space in which the term and definition of ‘superpower’ has to be viewed against the background of a new ‘global’ vision of space, frontiers and security, defined by a multiplicity of factors, which often are viewed as abstract and time- less assumptions beyond traditional geographic spaces and frontiers of the twentieth century and the first two decades of this millennium. They are the threshold of an impending future, marked by the Covid-19 pandemic, human, social and economic 1 In this context the economic and social, ethno-anthropological analysis by C. Giaccardi & M. Magatti, Supersocietà. Ha ancora senso parlare di libertà? Il Mulino, Bologna 2022. v vi Foreword disasters, innovative communication methods and instruments, and the proliferation of armed conflicts. We are confronted with a dimension that is dominated by a new paradigm, which tries to put at its centre the ‘people’ and their welfare. The ‘people’ become the central (but imaginary) actor of international relations. They are regarded as a major element of political affairs, as victims of natural catastrophes and/or imposed political-economic and strategic choices, or as a force to overthrow external pres- sures, threats and violence. A dimension exalted by media and digital platforms of communication. Neither India nor Pakistan are immune to all of this. However, against this background and in the context of India-Pakistan bilateral realities, it is possible to perceive the tenuous lines of a political-administrative tradition that has its roots in the deep humus of a local culture, which has survived the evanescence of the present and the upcoming digital and robotic reality. For example, traditional family fortunes, bonds between wealthy families, links between the country’s elites and officials and bureaucrats who above all govern and administer the country on behalf of the elites. Undoubtedly, these are still very alive and kicking and closely linked to new visions of global power (economic and financial) and security (hard more than soft security). A system that leaves its mark in the Indian Union as much as it does in Pakistan (for example, in the shape of the constitutional position of tribes and family-forms in Pakistan and religious groupings and casts in India). What has changed since India’s independence? Put bluntly, very little. Beyond remarkable technological and scientific progress, beyond a westernized and highly educated elite, beyond densely populated towns with their suburbs and miserable dwellings, beyond skyscrapers and magnificent pompous buildings, beyond sophis- ticated constitutions and sophisticated constitutional amendments improving demo- cratic governance and democratic elections, the financial-administrative interplay of power follows the same rules than in the past. Nowadays and in Indian on-the-ground realities and dynamics, these traditional forces continue to be present and influential. Lucrative public service jobs and the responsibility for collecting the revenues of no less lucrative economic and agricultural business are in the hands of traditional groups helping those in power to stay in power. A global albeit still liquid space moving towards new targets? Within this global-liquid stage and its visions, there are however some factors that should be considered: a society still close to its tradi- tions, to bonds of religiously dominant elements (either Muslim, Sunni and Shi‘i, or Hindu, Zoroastrian, Buddhist and other), a society close to the bonds of traditional ‘clientelism’ and its dynamics, to traditional administrative and social practices, and a traditional management of power and force (‘force’ as in the armed forces and the country’s nuclear arsenal). However, it is possible to hope and strive for development and some changes: the social forces and their affiliations. The latter are presently evolving, standing for inno- vation with innovative forces of this millennium. They are increasingly incorporated into their fabric of modernity and future: a sort of middle class of well-educated young male and female citizens. They pertain to a new reality dominated by economic and strategic factors, in which the ‘liquid space’ is made up of idealism, where ‘global space’ is the dimension of the future, a reality, which is already relentlessly imposing Foreword vii its rules onto society. Young male and female citizens, who are emerging and forging a connection with the old aristocracy and power structures and their leaders in the name of the ‘people’ and social-economic justice. So far so good, but tensions persist and come to the forefront every now and then through a skilled manipulation of the public opinion, and the political polarisation of conflicts (like that of Kashmir). What and where is the Indo-Pacific space? The Western waters of the Indian Ocean? Inner Asia? From an Asian perspective, these are mere Western definitions moulded by ‘foreigners’ and foreign powers since the sixteenth century. Definitions, which mirror foreign, extraneous strategic interests and their concept and ideas of conceptions. India’s new generation largely disregards such definitions. Pragmati- cally, it aims at positioning the country within a new dimension forged by the present and its forces, challenging the impending future. However, traditional leaderships do not disregard such ‘alien’ definitions. Nor does the army. The armed forces are always prepared to subtly tackle the various international forces and their alliances, ready to grasp from them renewed support, power and advantages—not taking into account and indeed ignoring, what the new generations want and strive for. This is the post-1947 Indian Union with its rich cultural heritage and peaks of splendour, with its religious strains often mirroring social anxieties, with its social- political system deeply rooted in past realities and underground forces. India, a country dominated by perennial tensions that no reforms have ever succeeded to erase or control, a country in which the economic-administrative factor is still the dominant power of India’s foreign policy and its numerous regional conflicts. Within the new dimension of this third millennium, the country’s economic power and reach gain prominence and become strategic factors and engines for India’s traditional ties (with the US, Africa and the Gulf countries) and partnerships (regional institutions and the Commonwealth, for example) and for new strategies (China and Japan). It is the engine for the reorganization of India’s foreign policy following patterns and a path targeting global markets and business. Silvio Beretta, Giuseppe Iannini and Axel Berkofsky have done a brilliant job editing this volume. The volume’s book chapters provide the reader with a compre- hensive overview of India’s foreign policy, depicting a reality, which goes far beyond contingent times and frontiers’ spaces. The chapters mirror the developing essence of this third millennium with its new global-liquid spaces, and, within it, the multi- faceted kernel of the Indian ‘continent’, its strategic and military positioning, poli- cies and diplomacy. The analysis of India’s foreign policies, its interactions with the country’s close and not-so-close neighbours and the analysis of India’s regional and global economic and trade policies is inevitably not exhaustive. However, the volume’s authors cover numerous areas and aspects of India’s foreign relations and its economic and trade interactions with the rest of the world. Axel Berkofsky analyses India’s relations with China, Filippo Boni those with Pakistan, Giulia Sciorati exam- ines India’s ties and interactions with the Association of Southeast Asian Countries (ASEAN), Francesco Mazzucotelli examines the country’s ties with and dealings in the Middle East, Michelguglielmo Torri examines India’s relations with the US and Emanuel Mangiarotti is analysing the importance of Kashmir for what she calls Indian Prime Minister Modi’s ‘ethno-nationalist’ idea of India. Mario Prayer, Silvio viii Foreword Beretta, Giuseppe Iannini and Gianluca Rubagotti in turn examine in great detail the historical and conceptual background of the Indian state and its foreign relations, India’s involvement and role in regional trade and investment and India’s position and positing in global trade and investment structures and flows. Finally, the editors have invited four Indian scholars—Gautam Chikermane, Jagannath Panda, Priyanka Pandit and Harsh Pant—to provide the reader with Indian perspectives on India’s overall foreign and security policy strategies, India’s security and defence relations with Japan, the country’s economic and trade ties with China and India’s reactions to China’s expanding footprint and influence in the Indo-Pacific Region, respectively. Valeria Piacentini Fiorani Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore Milan, Italy Contents Introduction ...................................................... 1 Silvio Beretta, Axel Berkofsky, and Giuseppe Iannini A Rising India in the Crossfire of Competing Grand Strategies ........ 7 Gautam Chikermane The Indian State and Its Foreign Relations ........................... 27 Mario Prayer Rethinking “Interdependence”: The Changing Nature and Context in India–China Economic Relations ................................. 47 Priyanka Pandit India: Candidate Player in the Asian Economic Space—Problems and Perspectives ................................................... 61 Giuseppe Iannini and Silvio Beretta India and International Trade ...................................... 85 Gianluca Rubagotti China’s Expanding Footprint in the Indian Ocean Region and the Indian Pushback ........................................... 107 Harsh V. Pant India and China—Two Countries Marching the March of Folly ........ 119 Axel Berkofsky Kashmir as Frontier in Narendra Modi’s Ethno-Nationalist Idea of India ........................................................... 135 Emanuela Mangiarotti India’s US Policy 1991–2019: The Gradual Loss of Strategic Autonomy ........................................................ 149 Michelguglielmo Torri ix