India's Changing Afghanistan Policy - Regional and Global Implications (2012)

2012·2.7 MB·English

by  Strategic Studies Institute

Visit our website for other free publication
downloads
http://www.StrategicStudiesInstitute.army.mil/
To rate this publication click here.
STRATEGIC
STUDIES
INSTITUTE
The Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) is part of the U.S. Army War
College and is the strategic-level study agent for issues related to
national security and military strategy with emphasis on geostrate-
gic analysis.
The mission of SSI is to use independent analysis to conduct strategic
studies that develop policy recommendations on:
• Strategy, planning, and policy for joint and combined
employment of military forces;
• Regional strategic appraisals;
• The nature of land warfare;
• Matters affecting the Army’s future;
• The concepts, philosophy, and theory of strategy; and
• Other issues of importance to the leadership of the Army.
Studies produced by civilian and military analysts concern topics
having strategic implications for the Army, the Department of De-
fense, and the larger national security community.
In addition to its studies, SSI publishes special reports on topics of
special or immediate interest. These include edited proceedings of
conferences and topically-oriented roundtables, expanded trip re-
ports, and quick-reaction responses to senior Army leaders.
The Institute provides a valuable analytical capability within the
Army to address strategic and other issues in support of Army par-
ticipation in national security policy formulation.
SSI Monograph
INDIA’S CHANGING AFGHANISTAN POLICY:
REGIONAL AND GLOBAL IMPLICATIONS
Harsh V. Pant
December 2012
The views expressed in this report are those of the author and do
not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Depart-
ment of the Army, the Department of Defense, or the U.S. Gov-
ernment. Authors of Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) publications
enjoy full academic freedom, provided they do not disclose clas-
sified information, jeopardize operations security, or misrepre-
sent official U.S. policy. Such academic freedom empowers them
to offer new and sometimes controversial perspectives in the in-
terest of furthering debate on key issues. This report is cleared for
public release; distribution is unlimited.
*****
This publication is subject to Title 17, United States Code, Sec-
tions 101 and 105. It is in the public domain and may not be
copyrighted.
*****
Comments pertaining to this report are invited and should be
forwarded to: Director, Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army
War College, 47 Ashburn Drive, Carlisle, PA 17013-5010.
*****
All Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) publications may be down-
loaded free of charge from the SSI website. Hard copies of
this report may also be obtained free of charge while supplies
last by placing an order on the SSI website. SSI publications
may be quoted or reprinted in part or in full with permission
and appropriate credit given to the U.S. Army Strategic Stud-
ies Institute, U.S. Army War College, Carlisle Barracks, PA.
Contact SSI by visiting our website at the following address:
www.StrategicStudiesInstitute.army.mil.
*****
The Strategic Studies Institute publishes a monthly e-mail news-
letter to update the national security community on the research
of our analysts, recent and forthcoming publications, and up-
coming conferences sponsored by the Institute. Each newslet-
ter also provides a strategic commentary by one of our research
analysts. If you are interested in receiving this newsletter, please
subscribe on the SSI website at www.StrategicStudiesInstitute.
army.mil/newsletter/.
ISBN 1-58487-560-7
ii
FOREWORD
As public pressure intensifies in Western nations,
important changes have been taking place in the
Western strategy toward Afghanistan. In this rapidly
evolving geostrategic context, other regional powers,
including India, are having to reassess their policies
vis-à-vis Afghanistan. This monograph examines
the changing trajectory of Indian policy toward Af-
ghanistan since 2001 and argues that New Delhi has
been responding to a strategic environment shaped
by other actors in the region. As the U.S.-led North
Atlantic Treaty Organization forces prepare to leave
Afghanistan in 2014, India stands at a crossroads as it
remains keen to preserve its interests in Afghanistan.
This monograph underlines the ever-evolving Indian
policy in Afghanistan by examining it in three phases,
before drawing out the implications of this change for
the region and the West.
New Delhi expects anarchy to intensify in the
northwestern subcontinent, as insurgents in Afghani-
stan have been repeatedly successful in undermining
local and international confidence in the viability of
extant political structures in Kabul amidst the with-
drawal of Western forces. Insulating India from the
widening disorder will remain the main strategic
objective of New Delhi’s policy toward Afghanistan
and Pakistan. India is trying to ensure that it does not
lose out, as has happened in the past, as new realities
emerge in the region in the coming years.
This monograph comes at a time when Indian
foreign policy has become more ambitious than ever
before in identifying its priorities. Afghanistan is also
seen by many in India as a test case of India’s role as
a security provider in its own neighborhood. Accord-
iii
ingly, the author of this monograph, Dr. Harsh V.
Pant, examines the trajectory of Indian policy toward
Afghanistan over the past decade and underscores
the implications for the region and the United States
in particular at a time when U.S.-India ties are strong
and vibrant. The Strategic Studies Institute is pleased
to offer this monograph as part of its continuing effort
to inform the debate on Afghanistan’s future, and to
help strategic leaders better understand the realities
of the contemporary South Asian strategic landscape.

DOUGLAS C. LOVELACE, JR.
Director
Strategic Studies Institute
iv
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
HARSH V. PANT is Reader in International Relations
in the Defence Studies Department at King’s College
London, United Kingdom. He is also an Associate at
the Centre for Science and Security Studies and the
India Institute at King’s College London. He has been
a Visiting Professor at the Indian Institute of Manage-
ment, Bangalore; a Visiting Fellow at the Center for
the Advanced Study of India, University of Pennsyl-
vania; a Visiting Scholar at the Center for International
Peace and Security Studies, McGill University, Mon-
treal, Canada; and an Emerging Leaders Fellow at the
Australia-India Institute, University of Melbourne,
Australia. His current research is focused on Asian se-
curity issues. Dr. Pant’s most recent books include The
US-India Nuclear Pact: Policy, Process and Great Power
Politics (Oxford University Press, 2011), The Rise of Chi-
na: Implications for India (Cambridge University Press,
2012), and The Rise of the Indian Navy: Internal Vulner-
abilities: External Challenges (Ashgate, 2012). Dr. Pant
is a graduate of Delhi University. He holds an M.A.
and an M.Phil. from Jawaharlal Nehru University
and a Ph.D. in political science from the University of
Notre Dame.
v

SUMMARY
Since 2001, Afghanistan has allowed New Delhi an
opportunity to underscore its role as a regional power.
India has growing stakes in peace and stability in Af-
ghanistan, and the 2011 India-Afghan strategic part-
nership agreement underlines India’s commitment to
ensure that a positive momentum in Delhi-Kabul ties
is maintained. This monograph examines the changing
trajectory of Indian policy toward Afghanistan since
2001 and argues that New Delhi has been respond-
ing to a strategic environment shaped by other actors
in the region. As the U.S.-led North Atlantic Treaty
Organization forces prepare to leave Afghanistan in
2014, India stands at a crossroads as it remains keen to
preserve its interests in Afghanistan. This monograph
underlines the ever-evolving Indian policy in Afghan-
istan by examining it in three phases before drawing
out the implications of this change for the region and
the United States. There has been a broader maturing
of the U.S.-India defense ties, and Afghanistan is like-
ly to be a beneficiary of this trend. Managing Pakistan
and unravelling Islamabad’s encirclement complex
should be the biggest priority for both Washington
and New Delhi in the coming years if there is to be any
hope of keeping Afghanistan a stable entity post-2014.
vii
INDIA’S CHANGING AFGHANISTAN POLICY:
REGIONAL AND GLOBAL IMPLICATIONS
New Delhi has long viewed South Asia as India’s
exclusive sphere of influence and has sought to pre-
vent the intervention of external powers in the affairs
of the region. The notion of a “Monroe Doctrine” simi-
lar to the one proclaimed for the Western Hemisphere
by the United States in the 19th century was explored
by Jawaharlal Nehru, India’s first Prime Minister.
Henceforth, the security of its neighboring states was
considered to be intricately linked with India’s own
security and was deemed essential if India were to
attain the status of a major global power.1
With India’s rise in the global interstate hierarchy
in recent years, tensions have emerged between its
purported role on the world stage and the demands
of the challenges it faces in its own neighbourhood.
South Asia is a difficult neighborhood, and India’s
strategic periphery continues to witness turmoil and
uncertainty. The instability in Pakistan, Afghanistan,
Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Myanmar is a ma-
jor inhibiting factor for India to realize its dream of
becoming a major global player. India’s attempts to
emerge as a global economic power are marred by
the uncertainty in the region, which has even stalled
its attempts at building interdependencies and en-
hancing connectivity. India is surrounded by several
weak states that view New Delhi’s hegemonic status
in the region with suspicion. The conundrum India
faces is that, while on the one hand it is often seen
as unresponsive to the concerns of its neighbors, on
the other, any diplomatic aggressiveness on its part
is viewed with suspicion and often resentment. The
structural position of India in the region makes it high-
1