Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change

355 Pages·2010·25.68 MB·English

by  Karl Hoarau

Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclones
and Climate Change
Yassine Charabi
Editor
Indian Ocean Tropical
Cyclones and Climate
Change
With
Salim Al-Hatrushi
Editor
Yassine Charabi
Department of Geography
Sultan Qaboos University
Muscat, Oman
[email protected]
ISBN 978-90-481-3108-2 e-ISBN 978-90-481-3109-9
DOI 10.1007/978-90-481-3109-9
Springer Dordrecht Heidelberg London New York
Library of Congress Control Number: 2009942532
© Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2010
No part of this work may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any
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Cover Images: Tropical Cyclone Kalunde, photo courtesy of NASA/GSFC, MODIS Land Rapid
Response Team. Photos of damages caused by Cyclone Gonu (2007) in Muskat (left) and Oman (right),
pages 178 and 227 of this volume.
Printed on acid-free paper
Springer is part of Springer Science+Business Media (www.springer.com)
Acknowledgments
We would like to express our sincere thanks to Professor Amer Bin Ali Al-Rawas,
Vice Deputy Chancellor of Postgraduate Studies and Scientific Research (Sultan
Qaboos University, Oman) for his exceptional support throughout many phases of
the project. Thanks to the authors who have generously contributed to the chapters
of this volume.
v
Preface
Tropical cyclones are topic that is not appropriately known to the public at large, but
climate change has been on the public’s mind since the last decade and a concern that
has peaked in the new millennium. Like the television programs of Jean Yves
Cousteau the ‘plight of the oceans’, have recent documentaries nurtured a conscious-
ness that major climatological changes are in the offing, even have started to develop.
The retreat of glaciers on mountain tops and in Polar Regions is ‘being seen’ on ‘the
small screen’ and has favored an environmental awareness in all populations that are
enjoying an average well-being on Planet Earth. The vivid images on screen of
storms, floods, and tsunamis share the fear provoking landscapes of deforestation,
desertification and the like. Watching such as this one is seen are voices warning of
what over is ‘in store’ if the causative problems are not remedied. Talking and dis-
cussing are useful, but action must follow. Understanding the full ramifications of
climate change on tropical cyclones is a task that will takes several decades.
In Climate Change 2007, the Fourth Assessment Report of the United Nations
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) a high probability of major
changes in tropical cyclone activity across the various ocean basins is highlighted.
The Indian Ocean including the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal are of particular
concern because of the high population density along their coastlines. These coastal
populations are vulnerable to the negative impact of these projected extreme events.
The tropical Indian Ocean is characterized by surface warming trends that are more
statistically significant, compared to model-simulated internal variability, than
those in many other tropical basins including in the Northeast Pacific and North
Atlantic. This raises the possibility that tropical cyclone trends resulting from
global warming could emerge in the Indian Ocean prior to other basins.
The 2007 North Indian Ocean cyclone season was exceptional in the annual cycle
of tropical cyclone formation. The north Indian Ocean basin witnesses the genesis
of four tropical cyclones (Akash, Gonu, Yemyein and Gonu). Cyclone Gonu was the
strongest tropical cyclone on record in the Arabian Sea, and tied for the strongest
tropical cyclone on record in the northern Indian Ocean and was the strongest named
cyclone in this basin. Intense cyclones like Gonu have been extremely rare over
the Arabian Sea, as most storms in this area tend to be small and dissipate quickly.
The cyclone caused about $4 billion in damage and nearly 50 deaths in Oman,
where the cyclone was considered the nation’s worst natural disaster.
vii
viii Preface
To improve our understanding of tropical cyclones and changes of their activity in
the Indian Ocean, an International Conference on Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclones
and Climate Change was held in Muscat, Sultanate of Oman on 8–11 March 2009.
The conference was organized by Sultan Qaboos University (SQU), in collaboration
with the Ministry of Transportation and Communication (Directorate General of
Meteorology and Air Navigation), the Ministry of Environment and Climate Affairs,
The Ministry of Regional Municipalities and Water Resources, The Research Council
(Oman), World Climate Research Programme and the World Meteorological
Organization. At this scientific forum, attended by a large number of experts in tropi-
cal cyclone research, various aspects of cyclone activity in the Indian Ocean were
discussed. The conference was the first step towards an ongoing international focus
on potential impact of climate change in the Indian Ocean.
We asked several scientists who participate in the conference for their interest in
developing a volume devoted entirely to the Indian Ocean Basin in which tropical
cyclones form and develop. The response was universally positive, and these
authors have generously contributed to the chapters that compromise this volume.
This volume is relevant to managers, policymakers, researchers, graduates and
undergraduates students in Geography, Climatology, Meteorology, Environmental
and Planetary Sciences. Moreover, the insights offered are not meant to exhaust the
topic, but rather are intend to stimulate thinking and awareness. We have attempted
to offer the recent progress on tropical cyclonegenisis, operational Tropical Cyclone
forecasting and warning systems and Climate Change and Tropical Cyclone
Activity and new syntheses in other areas, such as Assessment of Risk and
Vulnerability from tropical Cyclones, including construction, archival and retrieval
of best-track and historic data sets, Disaster Preparedness, Management and
Reduction and Recent high impact tropical cyclone events in the Indian Ocean:
Nargis, SIDR, Gonu and other events.
We invite you to explore the following chapters with an eye to developing a
greater sense of the possible range in which climate change can influence tropical
cyclones activity. The awareness of managers, policymakers, and research-more
than any modeling exercise- will ultimately determine how well we constrain and
respond to the challenge of climate change.
Muscat, Oman Yassine Charabi
Contents
Part 1 Climate Change and Tropical Cyclone Activity
A Climatology of Intense Tropical Cyclones in the North Indian
Ocean Over the Past Three Decades (1980–2008) ........................................ 3
Karl Hoarau and Ludovic Chalonge
Tropical Cyclones in a Hieararchy of Climate Models
of Increasing Resolution ................................................................................. 9
P.L. Vidale, M. Roberts, K. Hodges, J. Strachan,
M.E. Demory, and J. Slingo
Modeling Climate Change: Perspective and Applications
in the Context of Bangladesh ......................................................................... 15
M.J.B. Alam and F. Ahmed
Changes in Tropical Cyclone Precipitation Over China ............................. 25
Fumin Ren, Guoxiong Wu, Xiaoling Wang, and Yongmei Wang
Toward Improved Projection of the Future Tropical
Cyclone Changes ............................................................................................. 29
Masato Sugi
Global Warming and Tropical Cyclone Activity
in the Western North Pacific .......................................................................... 37
Johnny C.L. Chan
Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change: An Indian
Ocean Perspective ........................................................................................... 47
Thomas R. Knutson
Recent Trends in Tropical Cyclone Activity
in the North Indian Ocean ............................................................................. 51
O.P. Singh
ix
x Contents
Part II Progress on Tropical Cyclogenesis
Generating Synthetic Tropical Cyclone Databases for Input
to Modeling of Extreme Winds, Waves, and Storm Surges ........................ 57
T.A. Hardy, L.B. Mason, and J.D. McConochie
Numerical Simulation of the Genesis of Cyclone Nargis
Using a Global Cloud-System Resolving Model, NICAM ........................... 65
Wataru Yanase, Hiroshi Taniguchi, and Masaki Satoh
Simulation of the North Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclones
Using the Regional Environment Simulator: Application
to Cyclone Nargis in 2008 ............................................................................... 73
Mohammed Haggag, Takao Yamashita, Kyeong Ok Kim,
and Han Soo Lee
Simulation of Track and Intensity of Gonu and Sidr
with WRF-NMM Modeling System .............................................................. 83
Sujata Pattanayak and U.C. Mohanty
Part III Operational Tropical Cyclone Forecasting & Warning Systems
Monitoring and Prediction of Cyclonic Disturbances Over
North Indian Ocean by Regional Specialised Meteorological
Centre, New Delhi (India): Problems and Prospective ................................ 93
Ajit Tyagi, B.K. Bandyopadhyay, and M. Mohapatra
Evaluation of the WRF and Quasi-Lagrangian Model
(QLM) for Cyclone Track Prediction Over Bay of Bengal
and Arabian Sea .............................................................................................. 105
Y.V. Rama Rao, A. Madhu Latha, and P. Suneetha
Simulation of Tropical Cyclones Over Indian Seas:
Data Impact Study Using WRF-Var Assimilation System .......................... 115
Krishna K. Osuri, A. Routray, U.C. Mohanty, and Makarand A. Kulkarni
Impact of Rain-Affected SSM/I Data Assimilation
on the Analyses and Forecasts of Tropical Cyclones,
and Study of Flow-Dependent Ensemble Background Errors,
Over the Southwest Indian Ocean ................................................................. 125
R. Montroty, F. Rabier, S. Westrelin, G. Faure, Loïk Berre,
and Laure Raynaud
Statistical Forecasting of Tropical Cyclones for Bangladesh ...................... 131
Saleh A. Wasimi
Contents xi
THORPEX and Its Application for Nargis by Ensemble
Prediction ......................................................................................................... 143
Tetsuo Nakazawa, David Parsons, and Takuya Komori
Cyclone Gonu: The Most Intense Tropical Cyclone
on Record in the Arabian Sea ........................................................................ 149
Mohammad Dibajnia, Mohsen Soltanpour, Rob Nairn,
and Mohammadreza Allahyar
Real-Time Prediction of SIDR Cyclone Over Bay of Bengal
Using High-Resolution Mesoscale Models .................................................... 159
D.V. Bhaskar Rao and D. Srinivas
Performance Evaluation of DGMANs NWP Models
During Gonu .................................................................................................... 169
Sultan Salim Al-yahyai and Fawzi Bader Hilal Al-Busaidi
Capabilities of Using Remote Sensing and GIS for Tropical
Cyclones Forecasting, Monitoring, and Damage Assessment ..................... 177
Lotfy Kamal A. Azaz
Part IV Assessment of Risk and Vulnerability from Tropical
Cyclones, Including Construction, Archival and Retrieval
of Best-Track and Historic Data Sets
On Developing a Tropical Cyclone Archive and Climatology
for the South Indian and South Pacific Oceans ............................................ 189
Y. Kuleshov, L. Qi, D. Jones, R. Fawcett, F. Chane-Ming,
J. McBride, and H. Ramsay
Improving the Australian Tropical Cyclone Database:
Extension of the GMS Satellite Digital Image Archive ............................... 199
M. Broomhall, I. Grant, L. Majewski, M. Willmott, D. Jones,
and Y. Kuleshov
Coastal Vulnerability Assessment Based on Historic
Tropical Cyclones in the Arabian Sea ........................................................... 207
Chris Blount, Hermann M. Fritz,
and Ahmed Hamoud Mohammed Al-Harthy
The International Best Track Archive for Climate
Stewardship (IBTrACS) Project: Overview of Methods
and Indian Ocean Statistics............................................................................ 215
David H. Levinson, Kenneth R. Knapp, Michael C. Kruk,
Howard J. Diamond, and James P. Kossin