Improving and maintaining prediction accuracy in agent based modeling systems under dynamic

133 Pages·2017·2.1 MB·English

by  Inderjeet Singh Dogra

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Electronic Theses and Dissertations Theses, Dissertations, and Major Papers
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Inderjeet Singh Dogra
University of Windsor
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Dogra, Inderjeet Singh, "Improving and maintaining prediction accuracy in agent based modeling systems
under dynamic environment" (2014). Electronic Theses and Dissertations. 5022.
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IMPROVING AND MAINTAINING PREDICTION ACCURACY IN
AGENT BASED MODELING SYSTEMS UNDER DYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT
by
INDERJEET SINGH DOGRA
A Thesis
Submitted to the Faculty of Graduate Studies
through the School of Computer Science
in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for
the Degree of Master of Science at the
University of Windsor
Windsor, Ontario, Canada
2013
(cid:13)c 2013InderjeetSinghDogra
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IMPROVING AND MAINTAINING PREDICTION ACCURACY IN
AGENT BASED MODELING SYSTEMS UNDER DYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT
by
INDERJEET SINGH DOGRA
APPROVED BY:
M.Hlynka,ExternalReader
DepartmentofMathematicsandStatistics
D.Wu,InternalReader
SchoolofComputerScience
Z.Kobti,Advisor
SchoolofComputerScience
28November,2013
Declaration of Previous Publication
Thisthesisincludesoneoriginalpaperthathasbeenpreviouslypublishedinpeerreviewed
conferenceproceeding,asfollows:
ThesisChapter FullCitation PublicationStatus
Chapters3,4and Dogra, I. S. and Kobti, Z. 2013. Improv- Published
5 ing prediction accuracy in agent based mod-
elingsystemsunderdynamicenvironment. In
IEEECongressonEvolutionaryComputation
(CEC),2013. IEEE,2114-2121.
I certify that I have obtained a written permission from the copyright owner(s) to
includetheabovepublishedmaterialinmythesis. Icertifythattheabovematerialdescribes
workcompletedduringmyregistrationasgraduatestudentattheUniversityofWindsor.
I declare that, to the best of my knowledge, my thesis does not infringe upon
anyone’scopyrightnorviolateanyproprietaryrightsandthatanyideas,techniques,quota-
tions,oranyothermaterialfromtheworkofotherpeopleincludedinmythesis,published
or otherwise, are fully acknowledged in accordance with the standard referencing prac-
tices. Furthermore, to the extent that I have included copyrighted material that surpasses
iii
iv
the bounds of fair dealing within the meaning of the Canada Copyright Act, I certify that I
haveobtainedawrittenpermissionfromthecopyrightowner(s)toincludesuchmaterialin
mythesis.
I declare that this is a true copy of my thesis, including any final revisions, as
approved by my thesis committee and the Graduate Studies office, and that this thesis has
notbeensubmittedforahigherdegreetoanyotherUniversityorInstitution.
Abstract
The dynamic and complex nature of real world systems makes it difficult to build an accu-
rate artificial simulation. Agent Based Modeling Simulations used to build such simulated
models are often oversimplified and not realistic enough to predict reliable results. In ad-
dition to this, the validation of such Agent Based Model (ABM) involves great difficulties
thus putting a question mark on their effective usage and acceptability. One of the major
problems affecting the reliability of ABM is the dynamic nature of the environment. An
ABMinitiallyvalidatedatagiventimestampisboundtobecomeinvalidwiththeinevitable
change in the environment over time. Thus, an ABM not learning regularly from its en-
vironment cannot sustain its validity over a longer period of time. This thesis describes a
novelapproachforincorporatingadaptabilityandlearninginanABMsimulation,inorder
to improve and maintain its prediction accuracy under dynamic environment. In addition,
it also intends to identify and study the effect of various factors on the overall progress of
theABM,basedontheproposedapproach.
v
Dedication
I would like to dedicate this thesis to my family, especially my mother, whose prayers and
immensepatienceandfaithinmehavegotmethisfarinmylife. Also,Iamgratefultothe
AlmightyGodforhisblessings.
vi
Acknowledgements
Iwouldliketothankmysupervisor,Dr. ZiadKobti,forgivingmetheopportunitytogetan
exposure of the research field. It has been a great experience working under his guidance,
which got me a publication, which otherwise would have been impossible. His constant
motivation, support and faith guided me in successful completion of my thesis. I would
alsoliketoappreciatehimforallthefinancialsupporthehasgiven,whichhelpedmefocus
onmyworkandtookcareofmyexpenses.
My sincere gratitude goes to Mrs. Gloria Mensah, secretary to the director, who
has always helped setup meetings with my supervisor and ensured that he always meets
me, despite his busy schedule. In addition, my sincere thanks to Ms. Mandy Turkalj, who
hasalwaysbeentheretotakecareofotherissuesrelatedtomymaster’sdegree.
Finally, I would like to thank my parents, especially my mother who has gone
throughalltheupsanddowns;Ifacedduringmyresearch,alongwithme.
vii
Contents
DeclarationofPreviousPublication iii
Abstract v
Dedication vi
Acknowledgements vii
ListofTables xii
ListofFigures xiii
1 Introduction 1
1.1 ABMandValidation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
1.2 CurrentResearchMotivation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
1.3 ThesisContribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
1.4 ThesisOutline . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
2 LiteratureReview 8
2.1 ABMandDataMining . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
viii