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— S. HRG. 103-528 —— IMPLEMENTATION OF THE CLIMATE C—HAN=GE PUN ACTION 4.P 96/10: S. HRG. 103-528 _ lplenentation of the Clinate Chang..„. £ARING - BEFORE THE SUBCOMMITTEE ON CLEAN AIR AND NUCLEAR REGULATION OF THE COMMITTEE ON ENVIRONMENT AND PUBLIC WORKS UNITED STATES SENATE ONE HUNDRED THIRD CONGRESS SECOND SESSION APRIL 14, 1994 Printed for the use of the Committee on Environment and Public Works U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE 78-531mc WASHINGTON : 1994 ForsalebytheU.S.GovernmentPrintingOffice SuperintendentofDocuments,CongressionalSalesOffice,Washington,DC 20402 ISBN 0-16-044779-8 S. HRG. 103^528 IMPLEMENTATION OF THE CLIMATE CHANGE ACTION PUN======== 96/10: S. HRG. 103-528 M tation of the Clinate Chang..„. £ARING BEFORE THE SUBCOMMITTEE ON CLEAN AIR AND NUCLEAR REGULATION OF THE COMMITTEE ON ENVIRONMENT AND PUBLIC WORKS UNITED STATES SENATE ONE HUNDRED THIRD CONGRESS SECOND SESSION APRIL 14, 1994 SEp J<U.. Printed for the use of the Committee on Environment and Public Works U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE 78-531mc WASHINGTON : 1994 ForsalebytheU.S.GovernmentPrintingOffice SuperintendentofDocuments,CongressionalSalesOffice,Washington,DC 20402 ISBN 0-16-044779-8 COMMITTEE ON ENVIRONMENT AND PUBLIC WORKS MAX BAUCUS, Montana, Chairman DANIEL PATRICK MOYNIHAN, New York JOHN H. CHAFEE, Rhode Island GEORGE J. MITCHELL, Maine ALAN K. SIMPSON, Wyoming FRANK R. LAUTENBERG, New Jersey DAVE DURENBERGER, Minnesota HARRY REID, Nevada JOHN W. WARNER, Virginia BOB GRAHAM, Florida ROBERT SMITH, New Hampshire JHOOSWEAPRHDI.ML.IMEEBTEZRMEANNB,AUCMon,neOchtiicout LDIARUKCHKEFMAPITRHCLOORTNHE,,NIodrathhoCarolina HARRIS WOFFORD, Pennsylvania BARBARA BOXER, California PETER L. SCHER, StaffDirector STEVEN J. SHIMBERG, Minority StaffDirectorand ChiefCounsel Subcommittee on Clean Air and Nuclear Regulation JOSEPH I. LIEBERMAN, Connecticut, Chairman DANIEL PATRICK MOYNIHAN, New York ALAN K SIMPSON, Wyoming BOB GRAHAM, Florida LAUCH FAIRCLOTH, North Carolina HOWARD M. METZENBAUM, Ohio DIRK KEMPTHORNE, Idaho (ID CONTENTS OPENING STATEMENT Page Lieberman, Hon.Joseph I., U.S. Senatorfromthe State ofConnecticut 1 WITNESSES Bowes, Michael, SeniorAnalyst, Office ofTechnologyAssessment 46 Prepared statement 108 Responses to additional questions 121 Davidson, Margaret A., executive director, South Carolina Sea Grant Pro- gram 48 Prepared statement 123 Responsesto additional questions 122 Ervin, Christine, Assistant Secretary, Energy Efficiency and Renewable En- ergy, DepartmentofEnergy 10 Prepared statement 69 Responsesto additional questions from: Senator Lieberman 75 SenatorChafee 84 Leatherman, Stephen, director, Laboratory for Coastal Research, University ofMaryland 28 Prepared statement 92 Nutter, Franklin, president, Reinsurance Association ofAmerica 42 Prepared statement 99 Responsesto additional questions 107 Sussman, Robert M. Sussman, Deputy Administrator, Environmental Protec- tionAgency 4 Prepared statement 52 Responsesto additional questions from: Senator Lieberman 58 SenatorChafee 63 Tierney, Susan, Assistant Secretary, Policy, Planning and Program Evalua- tion, DepartmentofEnergy 7 Prepared statement 65 Responsesto additional questions from: Senator Lieberman 75 SenatorChafee 84 ADDITIONAL MATERIAL Statements of: Patton, Peter C, professor, Department of Earth and Environment Sciences, Wesleyan University 95 SpecialtySteel Industry ofthe UnitedStates 129 (ill) IMPLEMENTATION OF THE CLIMATE CHANGE ACTION PLAN THURSDAY, APRIL 14, 1994 U.S. Senate, Committee on Environment and Public Works, Subcommittee on Clean Air and Nuclear Regulation, Washington, DC. The subcommittee met, pursuant to notice, at 9:36 a.m. in room SD—406, Dirksen Senate Office Building, Hon. Joseph I. Lieberman [chairman ofthe subcommittee] presiding. Present: Senators Lieberman and Faircloth. OPENING STATEMENT OF HON. JOSEPH I. LIEBERMAN, U.S. SENATOR FROM THE STATE OF CONNECTICUT Senator Lieberman. Good morning, and welcome to this subcommittee hearing. Last October, when we first had discussion about the President's Global Climate Change Plan, I expressed cau- tious optimism about the plan, which is designed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by the year 2000 to 1990 levels. I had one concern about the plan which was that it contained neither interim milestones nor a system for measuring those milestones so that we do not arrive at the year 2000 and find that we are way behind President Clinton's commitment to the Nation and to the world community. I said at the committee's October hearing that I would be calling EPA and DOE back in 6 months to determine ifprogress had been made in this area, and thanks to an extraordinarily efficient and time sensitive staff, we have managed to achieve that here this morning. And I thank the witnesses for being here. The administration's testimony today indicates that significant steps have been taken in meeting the concerns that were expressed in October. The Department of Energy and the Environmental Pro- tection Agency I think do an excellentjob in their testimony ofask- ing the right questions for determining whether the plan will be successful. And those questions include: what if the plan has only limited success in achieving the objectives of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and saving energy; how can we determine which of the plans 46 actions reduce emissions most effectively; can they be expanded; should those that yield lower than expected savings be continued; can they be improved. But while these questions are the right ones, I am concerned that the approach to providing clear answers to those questions is not as much in place as I think it ought to be. There is no substitute for an annual system of measurement, monitoring and (1) tracking of greenhouse gas reductions from each strategy. The degree ofmarket place success ofthe technologies or strategies in the plan, the degree ofclient satisfaction and favorable public opinion, while useful, cannot serve as a substitute for actual measurement ofenergy savings and emissions reductions. Many of the items in the climate change plan are frankly unproven with respect to their ability to achieve emission reductions. I think it is therefore very important that the success or fail- ure of these actions be measurable. These measurements are important so that we can ensure that successful technologies or strategies are expanded and unsuccessful programs are eliminated. I hope to hear more from the administration this morning on this point. How will we ensure that resources are allocated to those programs which are achieving maximum emissions reductions. Pro- grams with appropriations obviously develop constituencies that advocate for those appropriations. Will it be easy to abandon a technology or a strategy that has developed a constituency. Infor- mation about reductions from individual action items must be accompanied by data on national progress in reducing the inventory of greenhouse gas emissions. I am pleased that the administration will testify today about the system for monitoring and tracking the national inventory that it has developed. My concern about some of these questions I've raised is height- ened; while I applaud the administration for the forward steps it has taken, pathbreaking steps dealing with the reality ofglobal climate change which have not been taken by previous administra- — tions,—the plan itself and I think we've got to be frank to acknowl- edge in terms of its actual impact, should be described as an important, but ultimately first and modest step. In this regard, I would say that I'm troubled by recent information from the Energy Information Administration which apparently shows that by the end of 1993 energy related carbon emissions had reached a level that the administration had not anticipated in its calculations until around 1996. I'm not saying this is bad faith by the administration, it is simply that the carbon emissions have risen more rapidly than was foreseen. And that would raise serious questions about whether stabilization of emissions can be achieved by the year 2000. Second, even ifgre—enhouse gases throughout the world are frozen at 1990 levels—today let's assume that they could be frozen at those levels today constant annual emissions will still increase the total concentration of greenhouse gases and the heat trapping capacity ofthe atmosphere. In other words, stabilizing emissions is quite different from stabilizing atmospheric concentrations. The International Panel on Climate Change, which is the international relevant group that represents 50 countries, concluded that stabilizing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere at today's level would require up to an 80 percent reduction in carbon dioxide emissions immediately and significant reductions in other greenhouse gases. According to the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment, unless the global climate change models that we are all dealing with now are seri- ously flawed, average temperatures are expected to increase ap- proximately five degrees fahrenheit over the next century, even under the most optimistic emission reductions scenarios. So to sum it up, it seems to me that there is increasing scientific evidence that I am sure we will hear today that global climate change is occurring. This is real; this is not the stuff of science fic- tion or a bunch of air headed alarmists, this is documented. And what we are attempting to do to cut down emissions, as significant as those steps are, nonetheless are just the beginning of what we are going to have to do to deal with this problem. And that is why OTA representatives and some of the scientists we will hear today will tell us that even ifthe plan that the administration has put forth is successful, we are going to have to cope with the consequences ofglobal climate change. That is, we are not really stopping the process at this point. And those consequences will include rising sea levels, the possibility of more frequent and/ or more intense coastal storms, recurring periods of temperature variability and droughts, changes in water supplies, disruption of ecosystems, and changes in many other climate-sensitive natural resources. The fact is that global sea level has risen 4 to 8 inches in the past hundred years. OTA reports that a best estimate offuture sea level rise due to global warming is 26 inches above levels that would have otherwise existed by the year 2100. So we have 4 to 8 inches increase in sea level over the last hundred years, and an estimate from our own Office of Technology Assessment, of 26 inches more in essentially the next hundred years. If no action is taken to protect against this rise, according to OTA, up to 5,000 square miles of dry land, and an additional 4,000 square miles of wetlands, could be inundated, including portions of such coastal cities as Atlantic City, Ocean City, Charleston and Miami Beach. Just to bring it home to Connecticut, sea level rises of this magnitude along the Connecticut coast would result in total inundation or significant landward moving of barrier beaches such as Hammonasset Beach, which is probably our most popular State park beach in Connecticut, and destruction of some coastal prop- erty. It would also result in more damaging flooding along the tidal Connecticut River and more ofwetlands. OTA argues that the virtual inevitability of climate change and the magnitude ofthe potential effects of climate change requires us to take mitigation steps. We are going to hear about some of those recommendations today. But while it is appropriate to consider mitigation measures, the OTA work also makes clear that we must make sure that the actions we are taking to reduce the impact of climate change are as effective as possible. And it is with that goal in mind that this Subcommittee will continue its oversight of the plan's implementation. I am delighted now to welcome the witnesses. On the first panel I'll list them and then call on them. First is Honorable Robert Sussman, Deputy Administrator of U.S. EPA; Honorable Susan Tierney, Assistant Secretary for Policy, Planning and Program Evaluation at DOE, and the Honorable Christine Ervin, Assistant Secretary Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, ofthe U.S. De- partment of Energy. And Bob, I see you are accompanied by a fa- miliar figure who you may also wish to introduce. Welcome and we look forward to your testimony. STATEMENT OF HON. ROBERT M. SUSSMAN, DEPUTYADMINIS- TRATOR, U.S. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY, AC- COMPAMED BY DAVTO GARDNER, ASSISTANT ADMINIS- TRATOR FOR POLICYAND PLANNING Mr. SUSSMAN. Thank you very much. I will introduce this famil- iar figure on my right who is David Gardner, our Assistant Admin- istrator for Policy, Planning and Evaluation, and a critical player in our climate change effort, who supports me and others very effectively. I am happy to have you here. Thank you, Mr. Chairman, for the opportunity to discuss EPA's implementation of the Climate Change Action Plan. When the President released the Plan, he stated that it is "the most aggres- sive and the most specific first step that any nation on this planet has taken in the face of perhaps the biggest environmental threat to the planet." The President committed his Administration to peri- odically evaluate the emission trends and program effectiveness and to pursue additional policy initiatives if the trends indicate that our progress is insufficient to obtain our goal. Since the Presi- dent announced the Plan 6 months ago, our Agency has focused on establishing programs to reduce greenhouse gas emissions as quickly and efficiently as possible. An integral part of this effort has been the establishment of simple, clear indicators of progress for plan implementation. Our Agency, and the Department of Energy, co-lead an inter- agency effort to track progress of the Climate Change Action Plan. We have established a three-part framework to evaluate progress towards our national goals. First, EPA works with the Department of Energy Information Agency and the Department of Agriculture to develop and update inventories ofemissions ofgreenhouse gases nationally. But the national inventory is too general to rely on for detailed evaluation and finetuning ofAction Plan activities. For that reason, the second part of our framework consists of the goals that we at EPA have established for each element of the plan for which we are responsible and the related indicators of progress we have put in place to gauge the extent to which our initiatives are on track. The third element of the framework we have put in place in co- operation with the Department ofEnergy is an effort to update and evaluate the relationship between what I might call the micro-level effects of individual actions, and the macro-level effects dem- onstrated in trends in the national emissions inventory. Bridging the gap between the two will allow us to better determine the over- all effectiveness ofthe Plan, to target improvements in program activities to obtain the most cost effective emission reductions, and to guide development oflater plans. Let me comment more fully on some of the program indicators and milestones that we are putting in place for the initiatives that we at EPA are implementing. By December of 1993 we at EPA had established specific program indicators and milestones in a stand- ard format to track our progress in implementing the Action Plan and in reducing emissions ofgreenhouse gases. I would like to share with you, Mr. Chairman, and I believe we previously shared with your staff, a summary ofthe current indicators and milestones. This summary reflects our current best esti-