Impacts of climate change on the agricultural and aquatic - cgiar

201 Pages·2012·4.26 MB·English

Impacts of climate change
on the agricultural and
aquatic systems and
natural resources within
the CGIAR’s mandate
Working Paper No. 23 r
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CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change,
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Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) P

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Edited by Philip Thornton and Laura Cramer n
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Impacts of climate change
on the agricultural and
aquatic systems and
natural resources within
the CGIAR’s mandate

Working Paper No. 23

CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change,
Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS)

Edited by Philip Thornton and Laura Cramer

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Correct citation:
Thornton P, Cramer L (editors), 2012. Impacts of climate change on the agricultural and aquatic
systems and natural resources within the CGIAR’s mandate. CCAFS Working Paper 23. CGIAR
Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS). Copenhagen,
Denmark. Available online at: www.ccafs.cgiar.org

Titles in this Working Paper series aim to disseminate interim climate change, agriculture and food
security research and practices and stimulate feedback from the scientific community.

Published by the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security
(CCAFS).

CCAFS is a strategic partnership of the CGIAR and the Earth System Science Partnership (ESSP).
CGIAR is a global research partnership for a food secure future. The program is supported by the
Canadian International Development Agency (CIDA), the Danish International Development Agency
(DANIDA), the European Union (EU), and the CGIAR Fund, with technical support from the
International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD).

Contact:
CCAFS Coordinating Unit - Faculty of Science, Department of Plant and Environmental Sciences,
University of Copenhagen, Rolighedsvej 21, DK-1958 Frederiksberg C, Denmark. Tel: [phone];
Email: [email protected]

Creative Commons License

This Working Paper is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution – NonCommercial–NoDerivs
3.0 Unported License.

Articles appearing in this publication may be freely quoted and reproduced provided the source is
acknowledged. No use of this publication may be made for resale or other commercial purposes.

© 2012 CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS).
CCAFS Working Paper no. 23

DISCLAIMER:
This Working Paper has been prepared as an output for the Integration for Decision Making Theme
under the CCAFS program and has not been peer reviewed. Any opinions stated herein are those of the
author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the policies or opinions of CCAFS or of CGIAR.
All images remain the sole property of their source and may not be used for any purpose without
written permission of the source.
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Abstract
The document attempts to distil what is currently known about the likely impacts of climate
change on the commodities and natural resources that comprise the mandate of CGIAR and
its 15 Centres. It was designed as one background document for a review carried out by the
High Level Panel of Experts on Food Security and Nutrition (HLPE) at the behest of the UN
Committee on World Food Security (CFS) on what is known about the likely effects of
climate change on food security and nutrition, with a focus on the most affected and
vulnerable regions and populations. A total of 25 summaries covering 22 agricultural
commodities, agroforestry, forests and water resources, present information on the importance
of each commodity for food and nutrition security globally, the biological vulnerability of the
commodity or natural resource to climate change, and what is known about the likely socio-
economic vulnerability of populations dependent partially or wholly on the commodity or
natural resource. With a few exceptions, the likely impacts of climate change on key staples
and natural resources in developing countries in the coming decades are not understood in any
great depth. There are many uncertainties as to how changes in temperature, rainfall and
atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations will interact in relation to agricultural
productivity; the resultant changes in the incidence, intensity and spatial distribution of
important weeds, pests and diseases are largely unknown; and the impacts of climate change
and increases in climate variability on agricultural systems and natural-resource-dependent
households, as well as on food security and the future vulnerability of already hungry people
in the tropics and subtropics, are still largely a closed book. CGIAR along with many other
partners is involved in a considerable amount of research activity to throw light on these
issues.

Keywords
Adaptation, Food security, Global tropics, Mitigation, Vulnerability
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Contributors

A Ashok Kumar, International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics
(ICRISAT), Patancheru 502324, Andhra Pradesh, India.
Ahmed Amri, International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas (ICARDA),
Tel Hadya PO Box 5466, Aleppo, Syria.
Andy Nelson, International Rice Research Institute (IRRI), DAPO Box 7777, Metro Manila
1301, Philippines.
Antonio Lopez-Montes, International Institute of Tropical Agriculture (IITA), PMB 5320,
Ibadan, Nigeria.
Arega Alene, International Institute of Tropical Agriculture (IITA), Chitedze Research
Station, PO Box 30258, Lilongwe 3, Malawi.
Aster Gebrekirstos, World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF), P.O. Box 30677, 00100 GPO
Nairobi, Kenya.
Audberto Quiroga, International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), AA 6713, Cali,
Colombia.
Baffour Badu-Apraku, International Institute of Tropical Agriculture (IITA), PMB 5320,
Ibadan, Nigeria.
Bekele Shiferaw, International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), Apdo,
Postal 6-641, 06600 Mexico, D.F., Mexico.
Boddupalli M Prasanna, International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT),
Apdo, Postal 6-641, 06600 Mexico, D.F., Mexico.
Bruno Gerard, International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), Apdo, Postal
6-641, 06600 Mexico, D.F., Mexico.
Bruno Locatelli, Agricultural Research for Development (CIRAD) and Centre for
International Forestry Research (CIFOR), PO Box 0113 BOCBD, Bogor 16000, Indonesia.
Carmen Sotelo Montes, World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF), BP E 5118 Bamako, Mali.
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Charles Staver, Bioversity International, Parc Scientifique Agropolis II, 34397 Montpellier,
France.
Christian Fatokun, International Institute of Tropical Agriculture (IITA), PMB 5320, Ibadan,
Nigeria.
Christine Padoch, Centre for International Forestry Research (CIFOR), PO Box 0113
BOCBD, Bogor 16000, Indonesia.
Clair Hershey, International Centre for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), AA 6713, Cali,
Colombia.
Clare Stirling, International Maize and Wheat Improvement Centre (CIMMYT), Apdo. Postal
6-641, 06600 Mexico, D.F., Mexico.
CLL Gowda, International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT),
Patancheru 502324, Andhra Pradesh, India.
Daniel Murdiyarso, Centre for International Forestry Research (CIFOR), PO Box 0113
BOCBD, Bogor 16000, Indonesia.
Doug Beare, WorldFish Center, 11960 Bayan Lepas, Penang, Malaysia.
Eike Luedeling, World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF), PO Box 30677, 00100 GPO Nairobi,
Kenya.
Elisabeth Simelton, World Agroforestry Centre/ICRAF Viet Nam office, Nha 1, Lo 14A,
Trung Yen 3, Yen Hoa, Cau Giay, Ha Noi, Viet Nam.
Flavio Capettini, International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas (ICARDA),
Tel Hadya PO Box 5466, Aleppo, Syria.
Fouad Maalouf, International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas (ICARDA),
Tel Hadya PO Box 5466, Aleppo, Syria.
Geoffrey Muricho, International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), Apdo.
Postal 6-641, 06600 Mexico, D.F., Mexico.
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Gudeta W Sileshi, International Centre for Research in Agroforestry (ICRAF), SADC-ICRAF
Agroforestry Programme, Chitedze Agricultural Research Station, PO Box 30798, Lilongwe
3, Malawi.
Hailu Tefera, International Institute of Tropical Agriculture (IITA), Chitedze Agricultural
Research Station, PO Box 30258, Lilongwe, Malawi.
Hans-Joachim Braun, International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT),
Apdo. Postal 6-641, 06600 Mexico, D.F., Mexico
Henry Neufeldt, World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF), P.O. Box 30677, 00100 GPO Nairobi,
Kenya.
Hesham Agrama, International Institute for Tropical Agriculture (IITA), P.O. Box 310142,
Chelston, Lusaka, Zambia.
Ian K Dawson, World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF), P.O. Box 30677, 00100 GPO Nairobi,
Kenya.
Idupulapati Rao, International Centre for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), AA 6713, Cali,
Colombia.
Imtiaz Muhammad, International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas
(ICARDA), Tel Hadya P.O. Box 5466, Aleppo, Syria.
Ivan Ortiz-Monasterio, International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT),
Apdo. Postal 6-641, 06600 Mexico, D.F., Mexico.
Jill Cairns, International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), Apdo. Postal 6-
641, 06600 Mexico, D.F., Mexico.
John C Weber, World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF), BP E 5118 Bamako, Mali.
Jon Hellin, International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), Apdo. Postal 6-
641, 06600 Mexico, D.F., Mexico.
Kai Sonder, International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), Apdo. Postal
6-641, 06600 Mexico, D.F., Mexico.
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Konstantin König, World Agroforestry Center—ICRAF, EMBRAPA Amazônia Oriental,
Travessa Enéas Pinheiro, 66095-100 Belém, Para, Brazil.
Lieven Claessens, International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics
(ICRISAT), Patancheru 502324, Andhra Pradesh, India.
Mario Herrero, International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI), P.O. Box 30709, Nairobi,
Kenya.
Matthew Reynolds, International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), Apdo.
Postal 6-641, 06600 Mexico, D.F., Mexico.
Michael Baum, International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas (ICARDA),
P.O. Box 5466, Aleppo, Syria.
Michael Peters, International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), AA 6713, Cali,
Colombia.
Mohamed El Hadi Maatougui, International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry
Areas (ICARDA), Tel Hadya P.O. Box 5466, Aleppo, Syria.
Oluyede C Ajayi, World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF), P.O. Box 30677, 00100 GPO
Nairobi, Kenya.
Ousmane Boukar, International Institute of Tropical Agriculture (IITA), PMB 5320, Ibadan,
Nigeria.
Ousmane Coulibaly, International Institute of Tropical Agriculture (IITA), BP 08-0932,
Cotonou, Benin.
P Janila, International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT),
Patancheru 502324, Andhra Pradesh, India.
P Moya, International Rice Research Institute, DAPO Box 7777, Metro Manila 1301,
Philippines.
Paul Kiepe, Africa Rice Center, 01 B.P. 2031, Cotonou, Benin.
Peter Craufurd, International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT),
Patancheru 502324, Andhra Pradesh, India.
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Piet van Asten, International Institute of Tropical Agriculture (IITA), P.O. Box 7878,
Kampala, Uganda.
Rachid Serraj, International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas (ICARDA),
P.O. Box 5466, Aleppo, Syria.
Ramni H Jamnadass, World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF), P.O. Box 30677, 00100 GPO
Nairobi, Kenya.
Reiner Wassmann, International Rice Research Institute, DAPO Box 7777, Metro Manila
1301, Philippines.
Roberto Quiroz, International Potato Center, Apartado Postal 1558, Lima, Peru.
Rolf Sommer, International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas (ICARDA),
P.O. Box 5466, Aleppo, Syria.
Rubí Raymundo, International Potato Center, Apartado Postal 1558, Lima, Peru.
S Mohanty, International Rice Research Institute, DAPO Box 7777, Metro Manila 1301,
Philippines.
Shiv Kumar Agrawal, International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas
(ICARDA), Tel Hadya PO Box 5466, Aleppo, Syria.
Sika Gbegbelegbe, International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), Apdo.
Postal 6-641, 06600 Mexico, D.F., Mexico.
Stephen Beebe, International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), AA 6713, Cali,
Colombia.
Surabhi Mittal, International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), Apdo.
Postal 6-641, 06600 Mexico, D.F., Mexico.
SVK Jagadish, International Rice Research Institute (IRRI), DAPO Box 7777, Metro Manila
1301, Philippines.
Tahirou Abdoulaye, International Institute of Tropical Agriculture (IITA), PMB 5320,
Ibadan, Nigeria.
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Terry Sunderland, Centre for International Forestry Research (CIFOR), P.O. Box 0113
BOCBD, Bogor 16000, Indonesia.
Tracy Beedy, World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF), SADC-ICRAF Agroforestry Programme,
Chitedze Agricultural Research Station, P.O. Box 30798, Lilongwe 3, Malawi.
U Kumar, International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT),
Patancheru 502324, Andhra Pradesh, India.
Víctor Mares, International Potato Center (CIP), Apartado Postal 1558, Lima, Peru.
Vladimir Smakhtin, International Water Management Institute (IWMI), P.O. Box 2075,
Colombo, Sri Lanka.

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