Impact of High Speed Ground Transport on Demand : Report of the Eighth Round Table on Transport Economics Held in Paris on 9-10 April 1970

110 Pages·1970·1.2 MB·English

by  OECD

ECONOMIC RESEARCH CENTRE
REPORT OF THE EIGHTH ROUND TABLE
ON TRANSPORT ECONOMICS
Held in Paris, on the following topic :
impact of
high speed ground transport
on demand
(Methodological Aspects and Impact
on Investment Programmes)
EUROPEAN CONFERENCE OF MINISTERS OF TRANSPORT
REPORT OF THE EIGHTH ROUND TABLE
ON TRANSPORT ECONOMICS
Held in Paris, on the following topic:
impact of
high speed ground transport
on demand
(Methodological Aspects and Impact
on Investment Programmes)
CONFERENCE EUROPEENNE.
DES MINISTRES DES TRANSPORTS
33, Rue de Franqueville
75775 PARIS CEDEX 16
U\. : 524.82.00
(9th-10th April, 1970)
EUROPEAN CONFERENCE OF MINISTERS OF TRANSPORT
INTRODUCTION
Increasing"attention is being paid to the problem of inter¬
city services and investment projects to allow substantially higher
speeds for certain.forms of land transport are already in' progress.
In addition, studies are proceeding with a view to finding an ap¬
propriate solution to the problem of long-distance rapid transit
.on a mass scale. .
On several grounds, .this development marks a particularly
important stage in the history of transport economics.
From an investment angle," the capital outlay needed for im¬
proving or replacing existing systems may be considerable.
From the operating 'angle, a "whole series of questions arises
in connection with the forecasting of a type of demand which may
itself be affected by supply; this is a particularly thorny aspect
which calls for a very thorough scientific appraisal.
Again from an operating angle, it is important to ascertain
the impact of certain innovations on the viability of existing
modes: in other words, it is necessary to ascertain whether the
diversification and proliferation of transport techniques do not
adversely affect the socio-economic cost of the overall transport
system. Clearly, this aspect ultimately raises the issue of the
integrated operation of all forms of transport.
At international level, it will be essential to find tech¬
nological solutions enabling a European network to be gradually
built up. This implies that certain choices must be made with a
view to the standardization of future equipment: failing this,
diversification would clash with the requirements of an interna¬
tional network.
Given so complicated a set'of problems and the rather wide
margin of uncertainty on future developments, the Introductory
Report and the discussion which followed could not of course claim
to provide a complete solution. The main line of approach there¬
fore consisted in bringing out more clearly some of the factors
which determine the demand for high-speed transport. This was
done by setting the problem in its basic context, i.e. standards
of living and land-use planning - two factors which condition the
transport system of the future.
Without prejudging the value and significance of research
in this field, the fact remains that high-speed transport is ul¬
timately a matter for policy decisions at international level.
At national level, some decisions have already been, or
are about to- be, taken; agreement is therefore needed on what the
ultimate aim should be and on the financial and technical resources
required to achieve it.
The E.C.M.T. takes this opportunity of thanking all those
who took part in the Eighth Round Table, and especially the Chair¬
man, Dr. SPILLIUS, for having so usefully contributed to the dis¬
cussion on so wide .a topic. . The practical and realistic content
of this discussion were not the least, of its merits..
This paper will be circulated to all organisations and in¬
dividuals on the E.C.M.T. mailing-list; the E.C.M.T. will be
pleased to send copies to organisations which are not on the list
of regular recipients .
LIST OF PARTICIPANTS
Dr. J. SPILLIUS (Chairman)'
Director
Research Projects Ltd.
25 Cleveland Square '
LONDON. W.2
Dr. A. DE WAELE (Rapporteur)
Economist, Consultant
E.C.M.T.
Monsieur BAUDOIN
Service de la Recherche
Departement Economie
Direction Generale de la S.N.C.F.
24, rue Cambaceres
PARIS 8eme
Monsieur J.P. BAUMGARTNER
Adjoint au Secretariat General
des Chemins de Fer Federaux Suisses
Rabbehtalstrasse 79
BERNE
Dr. A.W. EVANS
The University of Sussex
Physics Building, Stage II
Falmer *
BRIGHTON (Sussex) (United Kingdom)
Professor Dr. Walter HAMM
Universitatsstrasse 7
355 MARBURG (Germany)
Mr. John HEWITT
British Railways Eastern Region
Regional Headquarters
YORK Y01 IHT (United Kingdom)
Mr. Otto Chr. HIORTH ......
Research Leader
Institute of Transport Economy
Stasjonsveien 4 . "
OSLO 3
Mr. D. HOLLINGS
Research Director
Research Projects Ltd.
25 Cleveland Square
LONDON. W.2
- in. -
Mr. Keisuke INUI
First Secretary
Delegation of Japan
to the O.E.C.D.
PARIS
Mr. Makoto IWAMATSU
Chief.
Japanese National Railways Office
in PARIS
Monsieur Roger LEFEVRE
Ingenieur, Service d'Etude
Ministere des Communications
et des P.T.T.
62, rue de la Loi
BRUXELLES
Prof. Dr.-Ing. Wilhelm LEUTZBACH
Institut fUr Verkehrswesen
der Technischen Hochschule
Kaiserstrasse 12
KARLSRUHE 1 (Germany)
Mr. P.T. McINTOSCH
Senior Economic Adviser
Ministry of Transport
St. Christopher House
Southwark Street
LONDON, S.E.1
Monsieur Jean MERCIER
Directeur General
Institut du Transport Aerien (ITA)
4, rue de Solferino
PARIS 7eme
Monsieur J. PELLEGRIN
Ingenieur des Ponts et Chaussees
Ministere des Transports
244, Boulevard Saint-Germain
PARIS 7eme
Mr. E.H.M. PRICE
Chief Economic Adviser
Ministry of Transport
St. Christopher House
Southwark Street
LONDON, S.E.1
Mr. Lars SJOSTEDT
Statens JSrnvSgar (SJ)
Centralforvaltningen
Fack. S 105 50
STOCKHOLM C
- xv -
Herr Dipl.-Ing. K.W. STAEHLE
Hauptabteilung Wirtschaftsforschung
Battelle-Institut e.V.
Postfach 900160
6 FRANKFURT/Main
Mr. Kenji TATSUKE
Senior Policy Planning Officer
Minister's Secretariat
Ministry of Transport
2-1-3, Kasumigaseki, Chiyoda-ku,
TOKYO
Monsieur Marcel TESSIER
Ingenieur General
Service de la Recherche, SNCF
24, rue Cambaceres
PARIS 8eme
Dr. Branko VEGAR
Naucni savjetnik
Institut za saobracaj,
pomorstvo i veze
Trg Drage Iblera 9/VI
ZAGREB (Yugoslavia)
Monsieur V/'ALRAVE
Chef du Departement Economie
Service de la Recherche
Direction Generale de la SNCF
24, rue Cabaceres
PARIS 8eme
Mr. C.K. ORSKI
Head of Section
on Transportation
Directorate for
Dr. Alain BIEBER Scientific Affairs
Consultant O.E.C.D.
Mr. Peter A. IBOLD
Consultant
Dr. A. DE WAELE
Economist, Consultant Secretariat
E.C.M.T.
IMPACT
OF HIGH SPEED GROUND TRANSPORT
ON DEMAND
(Methodological Aspects and Impact
on Investment Programmes)
Dr. A. DE WAELE
Economist, Consultant
E.C.M.T.
- 1 -

SUMMARY
' Pages
FIRST PART: OBJECT OF THE STUDY ' 5
Definition of the object (cid:9) 5
Description of the object 6
SECOND PART: LOCATION OF POPULATION 9
A. GENERAL CONCEPTS (cid:9) 9
B. LOCATION OF MAIN CENTRES 10
C. SIZE OF TOWN CENTRES AND REGIONS 11
D. LOCATION OF POPULATION WITHIN A REGION . 12
E. DENSITY OF POPULATION ON THE TRANSPORT AXES ' 13
F. VARIABLE DISTANCE IN TERMS OF SPEED 14
G. ATTRACTION OF THE CENTRES (cid:9) 14
ANNEX I: RESEARCH REQUIREMENTS 16
THIRD PART: DEMAND BY LINKS 17
FOURTH PART: DEMAND TRENDS' : " 18
A. GENERAL CONCEPTS 18 -
B. EXTERNAL DETERMINATION OF 'DEMAND ' ' ' -"1-8
(a) Population increase 18
(b) Relocation of the population 19
(c) Changes in standard of living 21
(d) Broadening of international scales 22
(e) Impact of development 23
ANNEX II: RESEARCH REQUIREMENTS 25
C. INTERNAL INFLUENCES ON DEMAND 26
(a) Possibilities of introducing high speed 26
(b) Definition of real journey time 28
- 3 -