Impact Assessment and Evaluation in Transportation Planning

250 Pages·1994·5.997 MB·English

by  Peter Nijkamp, Eddy Blaas (auth.)

Impact Assessment and Evaluation in
Transportation Planning
Transportation Research, Economics and Policy
VOLUME 2
Editorial Board
Yossi Berechman
Department of Economics & Public Policy, Tel Aviv University, Israel
Peter Nijkamp
Department of Regional, Urban & Environmental Economics,
Free University, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
Kenneth Small
Department of Economics, University of California at Irvine, U.S.A.
The titles published in this series are listed at the end of this volume.
Impact Assessment
and Evaluation
in Transportation Planning
by
PETER NIJKAMP
and
EDDY BLAAS
Free University of Amsterdam
,.
lII....
SPRINGER-SCIENCE+BUSINESS MEDIA, B.v.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Nijkamp, Peter.
Impact assessment and evaluation in transportat ion planning / by
Peter Nijkamp and Eddy Blaas.
p. cm. -- (Transportat i on, research, econom i cs and po 1 i cy ;
2)
Includes bibl iographical references.
ISBN 978-90-481-4353-5 ISBN 978-94-015-8293-3 (eBook)
DOI 10.1007/978-94-015-8293-3
1. Transportation--Planning. 1. Blaas, Eddy. II. Title.
III. Series.
HE147.5.N55 1994
388' .068--dc20 93-42462
ISBN 978-90-481-4353-5
Printed an acid-free paper
AII Rights Reserved
© 1994 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht
Originally published byKluwer Academic Publishers in 1994
Softcover reprint of the hardcover 15t edition 1994
No part of the material protected by this copyright notice may be reproduced or
utilized in any form ar by any means, electronic ar mechanical,
including phatocopying, recording ar by any information storage and
retrieval system, without written permission from the copyright owner.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Preface xi
PART A
TRANSPORTATION PLANNING: SHIFTING BOUNDARIES
Chapter 1 Transportation Planning: A Theatre of Operations 3
1.1. Planning as the Art of Communication 3
1.2. The 'Climate' of Opinion and a 'Search Agenda' 4
1.3. The 'Menu' of Operations and the Instruments Box 6
1.4. The Position of Transport 8
1.5. Transportation Planning: A Field in Motion 10
1.6 The Development Potential of Transportation Infrastructure 13
1.7 Transportation as a Source of Conflict 15
1.8 Organisation of the Book 19
Chapter 2 Need for Decision Support in Transportation Planning 21
2.1 Introduction 21
2.2 The Structure of Planning Problems 22
2.3 Decision Support Methods 25
2.4 Computerized Information Systems 30
PARTB
IMPACT ASSESSMENT IN TRANSPORTATION PLANNING
Chapter 3 Principles of Impact Assessment 35
3.1 Preamble 35
3.2 The Need for Impact Analysis 37
3.3 Elements of Impact Analysis 38
3.4 Caveats in Impact Analysis 40
3.5 Criteria for an Appropriate Impact Assessment 41
3.6 Impact Analysis in Transportation Infrastructure Planning 45
3.7 Concluding Remarks 49
v
vi Table of Contents
Chapter 4 A Review of Impact Analysis Methods 51
4.1 Introduction 51
4.2 Micro Studies 53
4.2.1 Introduction 53
4.2.2 Controlled experimentation 54
4.2.3 Quasi-experimentation 55
4.2.4 Non-experimentation 56
4.3 Macro Studies 56
4.3.1 Introduction 56
4.3.2 Macro studies without an explicit model 57
4.3.3 Macro studies with an explicit model 62
4.3.3.1 Single-equation models 62
4.3.3.2 Multi-equation models 66
Chapter 5 Behavioural Impact Models in Transportation Planning 71
5.1 Models as Replica's 71
5.2 Models as Replica's of the Space-Economy 73
5.3 Aggregate and Disaggregate Models 78
5.4 Categorical Spatial Data Analysis 80
5.5 Scenario Analysis for Uncertainty Analysis 82
5.6 Concluding Remarks 86
PARTC
CASE STUDIES IN TRANSPORTATION IMPACT ANALYSIS
Chapter 6 A Micro-Oriented Inquiry among Entrepreneurs on Regional 89
Impacts of Infrastructure
6.1 Introduction 89
6.2 Methodological Aspects 89
6.3 The Regions under Study 91
6.3.1 Leiden and the Bollenstreek (heartland) 93
6.3.2 Southeast North-Brabant (intermediate zone) 93
6.3.3 Twente (peripheral zone) 94
6.4 The Questionnaire 95
6.5 Results of the Study 97
6.6 Conclusions 100
Table of Contents vii
Chapter 7 Infrastructure Endowment and Regional Growth Potential: 103
An Empirical Analysis
7.1 Introduction 103
7.2 Analytical Framework for the Contribution of Infrastructure
to Regional Development 104
7.2.1 Identification of Infrastructure Categories 104
7.2.2 Regional Infrastructure Endowment 105
7.2.3 Classification of Regions and Infrastructure
Categories 106
7.2.4 Assessment of Infrastructure Impacts on
Regional Development 106
7.3 Assessment of Infrastructure Indicators 107
7.4 Regional Infrastructure Endowment 110
7.5 Classification of Regions and Infrastructure 111
7.6 Impact Assessment of Infrastructure and Regional 117
Development
7.7 Retrospect 120
Chapter 8 Impacts of Infrastructure on Regional Development: Results 123
from a Frequency Analysis
8.1 Introduction 123
8.2 lllustration of a Frequency Analysis 124
8.3 Assessment of ERDF Impacts on Italian Regions 126
8.4 Assessment of ERDF Impacts on Dutch Regions 130
8.5 Concluding Remarks 133
Chapter 9 An Explanatory Impact Model for ERDF Expenditures and 135
Regional Development
9.1 Introduction 135
9.2 An Explanatory Model for the Assessment of ERDF 135
Impacts
9.3 Results of the Model for Italy 137
9.4 Results of the Model for the Netherlands 141
9.5 Concluding Remarks 144
viii Table of Contents
PARTD
METHODOWGY OF EVALUATION IN TRANSPORTATION PLANNING
Chapter 10 Evaluation and Conflict Analysis in Planning 147
10.1 Conflicts in Evaluation 147
10.2 Methods of Conflict Analysis in Evaluation 149
10.3 Elements of Evaluation 152
10.3.1 Information on Criteria 152
10.3.2 Identification of Alternatives 154
10.3.3 Identification of Conflicts 158
10.3.4 Assessment of Priorities 159
10.3.5 Classification of Evaluation Problems 161
10.4 Interactive Evaluation Procedures 162
10.5 Evaluation: Retrospect and Prospect 164
Chapter 11 A Survey of Multiple Criteria Evaluation Methods 169
11.1 Introduction 169
11.2 Monetary Evaluation Methods 172
11.3 Multi-criteria Evaluation Methods 173
11.4 Discrete Multiple Criteria Evaluation Models 174
11.4.1 Introduction 174
11.4.2 Quantitative Information 174
11.4.3 Qualitative Information 177
11.5 Continuous Methods 180
11.5.1 Quantitative Information 181
11.5.2 Qualitative Information 182
11.6 Inductive Versus Deductive Evaluation Approaches 183
11.7 Highway Planning in the Netherlands: An illustration of a
Multi-criteria Problem 185
11.7.1 Introduction 185
11.7.2 Project Enumeration and Classification 186
11.7.3 Identification of Judgement Criteria 187
11.7.4 Measurement of Effects 187
11.7.5 Ranking of Projects 188
11.7.6 Assessment of the Effect Score Table 188
11.7.7 The Use of Multiple Criteria Methods in
Dutch Transportation Planning 189
11.8 Outlook 190
Table of Contents ix
Chapter 12 A Methodology for Selecting a Tailor-Made Multiple Criteria 193
Method in Transportation Planning
12.1 A Meta-Multicriteria Choice Problem 193
12.2 Characterisation of a Multidimensional Evaluation Problem 194
12.2.1 Methodology 194
12.2.2 The Activity Profile 196
12.2.3 The Effects 198
12.2.4 The Decision Structure 199
12.3 Selection of an Evaluation Method 200
12.4 Conclusion 203
PARTE
APPLICATIONS OF MULTICRITERIA ANALYSIS IN
TRANSPORTATION PLANNING
Chapter 13 Urban Infrastructure Planning and Historico-Cultural Heritage: 207
an Application of a Qualitative Sign Analysis
13.1 Introduction 207
13.2 A Brief Description of Qualitative Sign Analysis 207
13.3 An Illustration of Frequency Analysis 209
Chapter 14 Rail Infrastructure Planning and Qualitative Information: 213
an Application of Regime Analysis
14.1 Introduction 213
14.2 Principles of the Regime Method 214
14.3 Appraisal of Urban Rail Investment Plans 218
14.4 Concluding Remarks 220
Chapter 15 Airport Planning and Functional Specialization: 223
an Application of a Nested Regime Method
15.1 Changes in Airline Patterns 223
15.2 Brief Description of the Dutch Airport Network 223
15.3 Judgement Criteria for Dutch Airport Network Models 225
15.4 An Application of a Nested Regime Method 228
x Table of Contents
Chapter 16 Location of Parking Facilities in a Historical Town: 231
an Ex Post Multiple Criteria Evaluation
16.1 Introduction 231
16.2 Description of Alternative Locations and Evaluation
Criteria 232
16.3 Retrospect 233
References 235