Table Of Content

IMF Staff Papers Vol. 52, No. 3 © 2005 International Monetary Fund Volume 52 Index Volume 52 (2005) comprises three regular issues and one special issue, as follows: No. 1, 1-148 No. 2, 149-366 No. 3, 369-551 Special Issue, 1-180 Authors Aiyar, Shekhar, and Carl-Johan Dalgaard. Total Factor Productivity Revisited: A Dual Approach to Development Accounting Aliber, Robert Z. The 35 Most Tumultuous Years in Monetary History: Shocks, the Transfer Problem, and Financial Trauma Arora, Vivek, and Athanasios Vamvakidis. How Much Do Trading Partners Matter for OIE SINNED a ia ok 656 66 6 on ba oe as woo ole Kakiwe sibs ee te pe ea 24 Bagir, Reza, Rodney Ramcharan, and Ratna Sahay. IMF Programs and Growth: Is Optimism PPT ETT EC e FTO POC LE ee ee re 260 Barron, Greg, and Felix Vardy. The Internal Job Market of the IMF’s Economist Program 410 Berg, Andrew, Eduardo Borensztein, and Catherine Pattillo. Assessing Early Warning Systems: How Have They Worked in Practice? Berger, Wolfram, and Helmut Wagner. Interdependent Expectations and the Spread of Currency Pe ree TTT Eee TOPE re ee ee es 41 Borensztein, Eduardo, Andrew Berg, and Catherine Pattillo. Assessing Early Warning Systems: How Have They Worked in Practice? Volume 52 Index Bown, Chad P., and Rachel McCulloch. U.S. Trade Policy and the Adjustment PE Ses. ck VSR RS WS ORR RT ARE Se Mieke Aa ee a aes ak eae aeO e ee SI-107 Boyer, Russell S., and Warren Young. Mundell’s International Economics: Adaptations and Debates Brandner, Peter, and Harald Grech. Why Did Central Banks Intervene in ERM I? The Post- PE a vracapede aaernckk avain wHe Cel Ri ewe keie bcen eae kde ae 120 Cady, John. Does SDDS Subscription Reduce Borrowing Costs for Emerging Market rTe ee ee Cargill, Thomas F. Is the Bank of Japan’s Financial Structure an Obstacle to Policy? .... Cerra, Valerie, and Sweta Chaman Saxena. Did Output Recover from the Asian Crisis? ... .1 Chami, Ralph, Connel Fullenkamp, and Samir Jahjah. Are Immigrant Remittance Flows a SS Ae CN OE IID nk cc ci can secccdcasnnnnsiesoaeewantenen 55 Choudhri, Ehsan U., and Mohsin S. Khan. Real Exchange Rates in Developing Countries: Ase Balassa-Sammelson Effects Prosemt? ...... 0.2 ccc cece ccccccccscsseccscOsr Christensen, Jakob. Domestic Debt Markets in Sub-Saharan Africa ..................518 Cordella, Tito, and Eduardo Levy Yeyati. Country Insurance Dalgaard, Carl-Johan, and Shekhar Aiyar. Total Factor Productivity Revisited: A Dual AGPTORER 00 DOVEIOPERONE ACCOUMIIEG «2. onc ccc ccc cccvcnsedecsesssceves 82 Engerman, Stanley. On the Accuracy of Some Past and Present Forecasts Fogel, Robert W. Reconsidering Expectations of Economic Growth After World War II from the Perspective of 2004 Frankel, Jeffrey. Mundell-Fleming Lecture: Contractionary Currency Crashes in Developing Countries Fullenkamp, Connel, Ralph Chami, and Samir Jahjah. Are Immigrant Remittance Flows a ee Ss OO gh ckvas ceckenwesen dneWindueeeweneaaein’ 55 Genberg, Hans, and Alexander K. Swoboda. Exchange Rate Regimes: Does What Countries Say Matter? Grech, Harald, and Peter Brandner. Why Did Central Banks Intervene in ERM I? The Post- 1993 Experience Ize, Alain. Capitalizing Central Banks: A Net Worth Approach Jahjah, Samir, Ralph Chami, and Connel Fullenkamp. Are Immigrant Remittance Flows a er CI EY in Stipe inksdwen ces ews ahh beuwennabenney 55 Jeanne, Olivier, and Jeromin Zettelmeyer. The Mussa Theorem (and Other Results on IMF- Induced Moral Hazard) Khan, Mohsin S., and Ehsan U. Choudhri. Real Exchange Rates in Developing Countries: Are Balassa-Samuelson Effects Present? 540 VOLUME 52 INDEX Kose, M. Ayhan, Eswar S. Prasad, and Marco E. Terrones. Growth and Volatility in an Era of Globalization Levchenko, Andrei A. Financial Liberalization and Consumption Volatility in Developing Countries Levy Yeyati, Eduardo, and Tito Cordella. Country Insurance Martinez Peria, Maria Soledad, Andrew Powell, and Ivanna Vladkova-Hollar. Banking on Foreigners: The Behavior of International Bank Claims on Latin America, 1985-2000 McCulloch, Rachel, and Chad P. Bown. U.S. Trade Policy and the Adjustment PE vss 0d:b ened ote osind Sexe pee ued bcs SOS a eae <b pes eee eee SI-107 Pattillo, Catherine, Andrew Berg, and Eduardo Borensztein. Assessing Early Warning Systems: How Have They Worked in Practice? Powell, Andrew, Maria Soledad Martinez Peria, and lIvanna Vladkova-Hollar. Banking on Foreigners: The Behavior of International Bank Claims on Latin America, SE 68h b bb oct end orseeeed did 4dk see RE NSW eehO > ke ee eee eee 430 Prasad, Eswar S., M. Ayhan Kose, and Marco E. Terrones. Growth and Volatility in an Era of Globalization Ramcharan, Rodney, Reza Bagir, and Ratna Sahay. IMF Programs and Growth: Is Optimism EEE WedRccwlenetesnsyesdehedeessevaueaedene Rodrik, Dani, and Arvind Subramanian. From “Hindu Growth” to Productivity Surge: The Mystery of the Indian Growth Transition Romeu, Rafael B. Why Are Asset Markets Modeled Successfully, But Not Their OP eT eee ere eT ee ee ee yr ert Pree ree rh Sahay, Ratna, Reza Bagir, and Rodney Ramcharan. IMF Programs and Growth: Is Optimism CIE be Sib ashdne ba dade wacew erd iedad whee bia go 6 ee ai kee etere ee ee 260 Saxena, Sweta Chaman, and Valerie Cerra. Did Output Recover from the Asian Crisis? ... .1 Shiells, Clinton R. VAT Design and Energy Trade: The Case of Russia and Ukraine Stella, Peter. Central Bank Financial Strength, Transparency, and Policy Credibility ..... 335 Subramanian, Arvind, and Dani Rodrik. From “Hindu Growth” to Productivity Surge: The Mystery of the Indian Growth Transition Swoboda, Alexander K., and Hans Genberg. Exchange Rate Regimes: Does What Countries DIMES Sakctcdccudi tavanesencennntunenune ps Terrones, Marco E., M. Ayhan Kose, and Eswar S. Prasad. Growth and Volatility in an Era of Globalization Vamvakidis, Athanasios, and Vivek Arora. How Much Do Trading Partners Matter for ORES GRINS hos cic ccccdbcccvacsceverngnaohnni ucunsawhesenenéaese n 24 Vardy, Felix, and Greg Barron. The Internal Job Market of the IMF’s Economist Program Volume 52 Index Viadkova-Hollar, Ivanna, Maria Soledad Martinez Peria, and Andrew Powell. Banking on Foreigners: The Behavior of International Bank Claims on Latin America, re eee er ee ee ee ere re ree rer eee ee 430 Wagner, Helmut, and Wolfram Berger. Interdependent Expectations and the Spread of Currency On the Accuracy of Some Past and Present Forecasts. Stanley Engerman Are Immigrant Remittance Flows a Source of Capital for Development? Ralph Chami, Connel Fullenkamp, and Samir Jahjah Assessing Early Warning Systems: How Have They Worked in Practice? Andrew Berg, Eduardo Borensztein, and Catherine Pattillo Banking on Foreigners: The Behavior of International Bank Claims on Latin America, 1985-2000. Maria Soledad Martinez Peria, Andrew Powell, and Ivanna Vladkova- I rare Soe out Cidhetagl GretD iusleoa tsc od ora Seiaeoa tae ee ee lb lw oe att hr ae 430 Capitalizing Central Banks: A Net Worth Approach. Alain Ize Central Bank Financial Strength, Transparency, and Policy Credibility. Peter Stella Country Insurance. Tito Cordella and Eduardo Levy Yeyati Did Output Recover from the Asian Crisis? Valerie Cerra and Sweta Chaman Saxena. ..... l Does SDDS Subscription Reduce Borrowing Costs for Emerging Market Economies? John Domestic Debt Markets in Sub-Saharan Africa. Jakob Christensen ..................518 Exchange Rate Regimes: Does What Countries Say Matter? Hans Genberg and Alexander K. Swoboda Financial Liberalization and Consumption Volatility in Developing Countries. Andrei A. EN bd eke ven MKS won oS asa y hE eee Rnsles BERNA aaekee aie Se Rae k ene From “Hindu Growth” to Productivity Surge: The Mystery of the Indian Growth Transition. Dani Rodrik and Arvind Subramanian Growth and Volatility in an Era of Globalization. M. Ayhan Kose, Eswar S. Prasad, and Marco E. Terrones How Much Do Trading Partners Matter for Economic Growth? Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis 542 VOLUME 52 INDEX IMF Programs and Growth: Is Optimism Defensible? Reza Bagir, Rodney Ramcharan, and Ratna Sahay Interdependent Expectations and the Spread of Currency Crises. Wolfram Berger and Helmut The Internal Job Market of the IMF’s Economist Program. Greg Barron and Felix Vardy. .410 Is the Bank of Japan’s Financial Structure an Obstacle to Policy? Thomas F. Cargill Mundell-Fleming Lecture: Contractionary Currency Crashes in Developing Countries. Jeffrey Frankel Mundell’s International Economics: Adaptations and Debates. Russell S. Boyer and Warren Real Exchange Rates in Developing Countries: Are Balassa-Samuelson Effects Present? Ehsan Cy. CGsy I Oy I bg te ce endevavavectoveckeedandesleaReeh Reconsidering Expectations of Economic Growth After World War II from the Perspective of 2004. Robert W. Fogel The 35 Most Tumultuous Years in Monetary History: Shocks, the Transfer Problem, and Financial Trauma. Robert Z. Aliber Total Factor Productivity Revisited: A Dual Approach to Development Accounting. Shekhar Aiyar and Carl-Johan Dalgaard U.S. Trade Policy and the Adjustment Process. Chad P. Bown and Rachel McCulloch VAT Design and Energy Trade: The Case of Russia and Ukraine. Clinton R. Shiells ..... 103 Why Are Asset Markets Modeled Successfully, But Not Their Dealers? Rafael B. Why Did Central Banks Intervene in ERM I? The Post-1993 Experience. Peter Brandner and EID ove cn Gob ened soa OO 009 6 eka ben diets turk nia bs sie oe malee eee 120 Subjects To facilitate electronic storage and retrieval of bibliographic data, JMF Staff Papers has adopted the subject classification scheme of the Journal of Economic Literature (Nashville, Tennessee). METHODOLOGY AND HISTORY OF ECONOMIC THOUGHT History of Economic Thought through 1925 General On the Accuracy of Some Past and Present Forecasts. Stanley Engerman Volume 52 Index History of Economic Thought since 1925 General On the Accuracy of Some Past and Present Forecasts. Stanley Engerman Other Mundell’s /nternational Economics: Adaptations and Debates. Russell S. Boyer and Warren Young History of Thought: Individuals Individuals Mundell’s /nternational Economics: Adaptations and Debates. Russell S. Boyer and Warren Young MATHEMATICAL AND QUANTITATIVE METHODS Econometric Methods: Single Equation Models Time-Series Models Does SDDS Subscription Reduce Borrowing Costs for Emerging Market Economies? John Cady Econometric Methods: Multiple/Simultaneous Equation Models Time-Series Models Did Output Recover from the Asian Crisis? Valerie Cerra and Sweta Chaman Saxena Game Theory and Bargaining Theory Bargaining Theory; Matching Theory The Internal Job Market of the IMF’s Economist Program. Greg Barron and Felix Vardy MICROECONOMICS Economic Welfare Altruism Are Immigrant Remittance Flows a Source of Capital for Development? Ralph Chami, CGS POMINEN, GND COUN DOIN 6 sas cc cccccccsscccneessesceccescase 55 Analysis of Collective Decision-Making Bureaucracy; Administrative Processes in Public Organizations The Internal Job Market of the IMF’s Economist Program. Greg Barron and Felix Vardy Information and Uncertainty VOLUME 52 INDEX Asymmetric and Private Information Are Immigrant Remittance Flows a Source of Capital for Development? Ralph Chami, Connel Fullenkamp, and Samir Jahjah MACROECONOMICS AND MONETARY ECONOMICS General Aggregative Models General Mundell’s International Economics: Adaptations and Debates. Russell S. Boyer and Warren Young Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles Price Level; Inflation; Deflation Is the Bank of Japan’s Financial Structure an Obstacle to Policy? Thomas F. Business Fluctuations; Cycles Growth and Volatility in an Era of Globalization. M. Ayhan Kose, Eswar S. Prasad, and Marco E. Terrones Money and Interest Rates Monetary Standards and Regimes; Government and the Monetary System Central Bank Financial Strength, Transparency, and Policy Credibility. Peter NO eo. eid wrt o ce rw 6 sap 5 ee on ww Bo ke eal aa eg ne Exchange Rate Regimes: Does What Countries Say Matter? Hans Genberg and Alexander K. Swoboda Determination of Interest Rates; Term Structure of Interest Rates Domestic Debt Markets in Sub-Saharan Africa. Jakob Christensen Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy Domestic Debt Markets in Sub-Saharan Africa. Jakob Christensen Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit Central Banks and Their Policies Capitalizing Central Banks: A Net Worth Approach. Alain Ize ................. 289 Central Bank Financial Strength, Transparency, and Policy Credibility. Peter NNN 05 bck cease be eksee be dancksa¥a snes Khap eee ee bahay ieee eee Interdependent Expectations and the Spread of Currency Crises. Wolfram Berger and Helmut Wagner Is the Bank of Japan’s Financial Structure an Obstacle to Policy? Thomas F. Volume 52 Index Why Did Central Banks Intervene in ERM I? The Post-1993 Experience. Peter Brandner and Harald Grech Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, Macroeconomic Policy, and General Outlook Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination Central Bank Financial Strength, Transparency, and Policy Credibility. Peter Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary or Stabilization Policy Capitalizing Central Banks: A Net Worth Approach. Alain Ize Is the Bank of Japan’s Financial Structure an Obstacle to Policy? Thomas F. INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS International Economic Order; Economic Integration: General Financial Liberalization and Consumption Volatility in Developing Countries. Andrei A. INN brs ari: ob hac aes & Grace MOAR Lo wo acd ele ae hee Gide a kis ee RO 237 Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies VAT Design and Energy Trade: The Case of Russia and Ukraine. Clinton R. PE Kad spas dhe nore s Ske SNe US HERMES ER Wb oad b ube eTE ns ce ae aaa awa 103 Commercial Policy; Protection; Promotion; Trade Negotiations U.S. Trade Policy and the Adjustment Process. Chad P. Bown and Rachel McCulloch Country and Industry Studies of Trade U.S. Trade Policy and the Adjustment Process. Chad P. Bown “and Rachel McCulloch Economic Integrations How Much Do Trading Partners Matter for Economic Growth? Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis U.S. Trade Policy and the Adjustment Process. Chad P. Bown and Rachel McCulloch International Factor Movements and International Business International Migration Are Immigrant Remittance Flows a Source of Capital for Development? Ralph Chami, Connel Fullenkamp, and Samir Jahjah VOLUME 52 INDEX International Finance Why Are Asset Markets Modeled Successfully, But Not Their Dealers? Rafael B. ED se ccccenscdens 65282) ghedehabutnask haa sk eye erebeaeee eee General Country Insurance. Tito Cordella and Eduardo Levy Yeyati Foreign Exchange Assessing Early Warning Systems: How Have They Worked in Practice? Andrew Berg, Eduardo Borensztein, and Catherine Pattillo Real Exchange Rates in Developing Countries: Are Balassa-Samuelson Effects Present? Ehsan U. Choudhri and Mohsin S. Khan ..........0.c .ee. ee.e .eee. e.es0 38 7 Why Did Central Banks Intervene in ERM I? The Post-1993 Experience. Peter Brandner and Harald Grech Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements Mundell-Fleming Lecture: Contractionary Currency Crashes in Developing Countries. Jeffrey Frankel The Mussa Theorem (and Other Results on IMF-Induced Moral Hazard). Olivier Jeanne and Jeromin Zettelmeyer International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions Does SDDS Subscription Reduce Borrowing Costs for Emerging Market Economies? John Cady Exchange Rate Regimes: Does What Countries Say Matter? Hans Genberg and Alexander K. Swoboda IMF Programs and Growth: Is Optimism Defensible? Reza Bagir, Rodney Ramcharan, and Ratna Sahay Interdependent Expectations and the Spread of Currency Crises. Wolfram Berger and Helmut Wagner Mundell-Fleming Lecture: Contractionary Currency Crashes in Developing Countries. Jeffrey Frankel The Mussa Theorem (and Other Results on IMF-Induced Moral Hazard). Olivier Jeanne and Jeromin Zettelmeyer Why Did Central Banks Intervene in ERM I? The Post-1993 Experience. Peter Brandner and Harald Grech International Lending and Debt Problems Does SDDS Subscription Reduce Borrowing Costs for Emerging Market Economies? John Cady Mundell-Fleming Lecture: Contractionary Currency Crashes in Developing Countries. Jeffrey Frankel Volume 52 Index Foreign Aid IMF Programs and Growth: Is Optimism Defensible? Reza Bagir, Rodney Ramcharan, and Ratna Sahay Financial Aspects of Economic Integration Financial Liberalization and Consumption Volatility in Developing Countries. Andrei A. RI sine Sig be sen ob aw Ge Aa de BE ee ew Oe hb hie ee OAR RONG we oe Growth and Volatility in an Era of Globalization. M. Ayhan Kose, Eswar S. Prasad, and Marco E. Terrones Other Did Output Recover from the Asian Crisis? Valerie Cerra and Sweta Chaman Saxena Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance Why Are Asset Markets Modeled Successfully, But Not Their Dealers? Rafael B. Open Economy Macroeconomics Did Output Recover from the Asian Crisis? Valerie Cerra and Sweta Chaman Saxena Interdependent Expectations and the Spread of Currency Crises. Wolfram Berger and Helmut Wagner Mundell’s /nternational Economics: Adaptations and Debates. Russell S. Boyer and Warren Young Real Exchange Rates in Developing Countries: Are Balassa-Samuelson Effects Present? meen U. Cinuiiaes and Dioiein DS. THROW 2... cc cies cvccwccccssesieeee International Policy Coordination Did Output Recover from the Asian Crisis? Valerie Cerra and Sweta Chaman Saxena Economic Growth of Open Economies Growth and Volatility in an Era of Globalization. M. Ayhan Kose, Eswar S. Prasad, and Marco E. Terrones How Much Do Trading Partners Matter for Economic Growth? Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis Forecasting and Simulation Assessing Early Warning Systems: How Have They Worked in Practice? Andrew Berg, Eduardo Borensztein, and Catherine Pattillo