Hydrologic Frequency Modeling: Proceedings of the International Symposium on Flood Frequency and Risk Analyses, 14–17 May 1986, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, U.S.A.

637 Pages·1987·51.77 MB·English

by  V. Klemeš (auth.)

HYDROLOGIC FREQUENCY MODELING
HYDROLOGIC
R QUENCY
MODELING
Proceedings of the Symposium
on Flood Frequency and Risk Analyses,
14-17 May 1986, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, U.S.A.
Edited by
VIJAY
Department of Civil Engineering,
Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, US.A.
REIDEL PUBLISHING COMPANY
A MEMBER OF THE KLUWER ACADEMIC PUBLISHERS GROUP
DORDRECHT / BOSTON / LANCASTER / TOKYO
Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data
International Symposium on Flood Frequency and Risk Analyses (1986:
Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge)
Hydrologic frequency modeling.
Includes indexes.
1. F1oods--Mathematical Model~ongresses. I. Singh, V. P.
(Vijay P.) II. Title.
GB1399.I58 1986b 551.48'9'0724 87-20619
ISBN-13: 978-94-010-8253-2 e-ISBN-13: 978-94-009-3953-0
DOl: 10.1007/978-94-009-3953-0
Published by D. Reidel Publishing Company,
P.O. Box 17,3300 AA Dordrecht, Holland.
Sold and distributed in the U.S.A. and Canada
by Kluwer Academic Publishers,
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In all other countries, sold and distributed
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All Rights Reserved
© 1987 by D. Reidel Publishing Company, Dordrecht, Holland
No part of the material protected by this copyright notice may be reproduced or
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including photocopying, recording or by any information storage and
retrieval system, without written permission from the copyright owner
Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1s t edition 1987
PREFACE
Floods constitute a persistent and serious problem throughout
the United States and many other parts of the world. They are respon
sible for losses amounting to billions of dollars and scores of deaths
annually. Virtually all parts of the nation--coastal, mountainous and
rural--are affected by them. Two aspects of the problem of flooding
that have long been topics of scientific inquiry are flood frequency
and risk analyses. Many new, even improved, techniques have recently
been developed for performing these analyses. Nevertheless, actual
experience points out that the frequency of say a 100-year flood, in
lieu of being encountered on the average once in one hundred years,
may be as little as once in 25 years. It is therefore appropriate to
pause and ask where we are, where we are going and where we ought to
be going with regard to the technology of flood frequency and risk
analyses. One way to address these questions is to provide a forum
where people from all quarters of the world can assemble, discuss and
share their experience and expertise pertaining to flood frequency and
risk analyses. This is what constituted the motivation for organizing
the International Symposium on Flood Frequency and Risk Analyses held
May 14-17, 1986, at Louisiana State University, Bat-on Rouge, Louisiana.
The objectives of this symposium were therefore (1) to assess
the current state of the art of flood frequency and risk analyses,
(2) to demonstrate applicability of flood frequency and risk models,
(3) to establish complementary aspects of seemingly different models,
(4) to enhance interdisciplinary interaction, (5) to discuss practice
of flood frequency and risk analyses technology by federal agencies
in the U.S., (6) to discuss research needs in frequency and risk
analyses, and, (7) to determine directions for further research.
We received an overwhelming response to our call for papers. It
was indeed a difficult task to select amongst the many excellent
papers that were submitted, and we regret that we could not include
all of them. The sole criterion for selection of a paper was its
merit in relation to Symposium objectives. The subject matter of the
Symposium was divided into 20 major topics encompassing virtually all
facets of flood frequency and risk analyses. Each topic comprised of
an invited state-of-the-art paper and a number of contributed papers.
These contributions blended naturally to evolve a synthesized body of
knowledge on that topic. Extended abstracts of all the invited and
contributed papers were assembled in a pre-Symposium proceedings
volume. This helped stimulate discussion and exchange of ideas
during the Symposium.
The papers presented at the Symposium were refereed in a manner
similar to that employed for publishing a journal article. As a
result, many papers did not pass the review and were therefore elimi
nated from inclusion in the final proceedings. The papers contained
in this book HYDROLOGIC FREQUENCY MODELING, represent one part of the
Symposium contributions. The other parts are embodied in three
v
vi PREFACE
,;eparate books, FLOOD HYDROLOGY, REGIONAL FLOOD FREQUENCY ANALYSIS,
,::nd APPLICATION OF FREQUENCY AND RISK IN \lATER RESOURCES, which are
1:leing published simultaneously. Arrangement of these books under four
different titles was a natural consequence of the diversity of techni
,-al material discussed in the papers. These books can be treated
2lmost independently, although some overlap does exist between them.
This book contains eight sections encompassing major aspects of
hydrologic frequency analysis. Each section starts usually with an
invited state-of-the-art paper, followed by contributed papers.
Beginning with a discussion of hydrologic frequency analysis and its
relevance, the papers go on to discuss univariate flood frequency
models, mixed distributions, rainfall frequency analysis, application
of entropy in flood frequency analysis, methods of parameter estima
tion, selection of flood frequency models, and multivariate stochas
tic models.
The book will of of interest to researchers as well as those
engaged in practice of Civil Engineering, Agricultural Engineering,
Hydrology, Water Resources, Earth Resources, Forestry and Environ
mental Sciences. The grad1late students as well as those wishing to
conduct research in flood hydrology will find this book to be of
partjcular value.
I wish to take this opportunity to express my sincere appre,-ia
Uon to all the members of the Organizing and Advisory Committees,
and the Louisiana State University administration for their generous
2nd timely help in the organization of the Symposium. A lack of
space does not allow me to list all of them by name here. Numerous
other people contributed to the Symposium in one way or another. The
authors, including the invited keynote speakers, contributed to the
Symposium technically and this book is a result of their efforts.
The session chairmen administered the sessions in a positive and
professional manner. The referees took time out from their busy
s,-hedules and reviewed the papers. Graduate students assisted in
smooth conduct of the sessions. lowe my sincere gratitude to all of
these individuals.
If the success of a Symposium is measured in terms of the
quality of participants and presentations then most people would
agree that this was a very succe~sful Symposium. A very large number
of internationally well-known pedple, who have long been recognized
ror their contributions and have long been at the forefront of
hydrologic research carne to participate in the Symposium. More than
35 countries, covering the five continents and most of the countries
of the world active in hydrologic research, were represented. It is
hoped that long and productive personal associations will develop as
a result of this Symposium.
Harch 1987 Vijay P. Singh
Baton Rouge, Louisiana Symposium Director
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The International Symposium on Flood Frequency and Risk Analyses
was sponsored and co-sponsored by a number of organizations. The
sponsors provided financial support without which the Symposium might
I'.ot have come to fruition. Their financial support is gratefully
acknowledged. The co-sponsors extended their help in announcing the
Symposium through their journals, transactions, newsletters or
magazines. This publicity helped with attendance at the Symposium,
and is gratefully acknowledged. The following is a list of Symposium
sponsors and co-sponsors.
SYMPOSIUM SPONSORS
Louisiana State University
Department of Civil Engineering
Louisiana Water Resources Research Institute
National Science Foundation
u.S. Army Research Office
U.S. Geological Survey, Louisiana District, Baton Rouge
Woodward-Clyde Consultants, Baton Rouge
SYMPOSIUM CO-SPONSORS
American Geographical Society
American Geophysical Union
American Meteorological Society
American Statistical Association
American Society of Agricultural Engineers
American Society of Civil Engineers
Amprican Water Resources Association
nssociation of American Geographers
Association of State Floodplain Managers
International Association for Hydraulic Research
International Association of Hydrological Sciences
International Association of Theoretical and Applied Limnology
International Commission on Irrigation and Drainage
International Geographical Union
International Water Resources Association
National Wildlife Federation
North American Lake Management Society
Pan American Institute of Geography
Society for Risk Analysis
Soil Conservation Society of America
vii
TABLE OF CONTENTS
PREFACE v
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS vii
SECTION 1 FLOOD FREQUENCY ANALYSIS
Hydrological and Engineering Relevance of
Flood Frequency Analysis
by V. K1emes • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • . • • 1
Statistical Flood Frequency Analysis -
An Overview
by A. Kumar and S. Chander •.•• 19
Deterministic Nature of Flood Frequencies:
Some Observations
by I. Muzik 37
SECTION 2 EMPIRICAL FLOOD FREQUENCY MODELS
Review of Statistical Models for
Flood Frequency Estimation
by C. Cunnane •. . • • • 49
Estimation of Flood Frequencies by a
Nonparametric Density Procedure
by K. Adamowski and C. Labatiuk 97
Statistical Models for Flood
Frequency Estimation of the
Mississippi and Yazoo Rivers
by E. Nissan .•• 107
Partial Duration Series with Log-Normal
Distributed Peak Values
by D. Rosbjerg . 117
Estimation of a Prior Distribution for the
Bayesian Estimation of Pearson III Skews
by U. LaII . • . . . . . . . . . . 131
Comparison of Flood Frequency Estimates
Based on Observed and Model-Generated
Peak Flows
by W. O. Thomas, Jr ...•••. 149
TABLE CONTENTS
Flood Frequency Analysis Using Box-Cox
Transformation Based Gumbel EV-l
DiBtribution
by Perumal, R. D. Singh
S. M. Seth 163
Flood-Frequency Analysis with Historical
. Sauer ... 173
SECTION MIXED DISTRIBUTIONS
Development of a Versatile Flood Frequency
Methodology and its Application to Flood
Series from Different Countries
by . Singh . . 183
Hydroclimatically-Defined Mixed Distri-
butions Partial Duration Flood Series
by . Hirschboeck . . . . . . . 199
Mixed Flood Distributions in Wisconsin
by T Diehl and K. W. Potter .. 213
Flood Data, Underlying Distribution,
Analysis and Refinement
by K. P. Singh .. 227
SECTION RAINFALL FREQUENCY ANAlYSIS
Very Low Probability Precipitation -
Frequency Estimates - A Perspective
by . Richards and . Wescott 243
SQRT-Exponential Type Distribution of
Haximum
by . Etoh, . Murata and M.
Nakanishi 253
the Probabilistic Characterist of
Point and Areal Rainfall
by U. Matsubayashi and F. Takagi. 265
Comparison of Three Methods of Estimating
Rainfall Frequency Parameters According
to the Duration of Accumulation
by H. Slimani and T. Lebel . . . . . . . . . . . .. 277
TABLE OF CONTENTS xi
Frequency Analysis of Australian Rainfall
Data as used for Flood Analysis and Design
by R. P. Canterford, N. R. Pescod,
H. J. Pearce, L. H. Turner and
R. J. Atkinson . . . . ..••........ 293
Stochastic Formulation of Storm Pattern
and Rainfall Intensity-Duration Curve
for Design Flood
by M. Hashino . . . . . . 303
Rainfall Frequency Studies for Central
Saudi Arabia
by U. Sendil and A. M. A. Salih 315
Analysis of Flood Occurrence through
Characterization of Precipitation
Patterns
by A. Kawamura, K. Jinno, T. Ueda
and R. R. Medina . . . . . • 327
The Sampling Theory of the Binary Random
Field Decides the Relation about the
Point and Plane of the Extra Rainstorms
by Z. G. Pei .......... . 337
SECTION 5 ENTROPY IN FLOOD FREQUENCY ANALYSIS
Some New Perspectives on Maximum Entropy
Techniques in Water Resources Research
by A. K. Rajagopal, S. Teitler and
V. P. Singh ...•... 347
Entropy and Probability Distributions
by Y. Li, V. P. Singh and S. Cong 367
SECTION 6 PARAMETER ESTIMATION
An Evaluation of Seven Methods for Estimating
Parameters of EVI Distribution
by K. Arora and V. P. Singh 383
Fitting Log Pearson Type 3 Distribution
by Maximum Likelihood
by D. V. Rao .••....••.• 395
Estimating the Parameters of the Generalized
Gamma Distribution by Mixed Moments
by H. N. Phien, T. V. N. Van and
J. H. Kuo . . . . • . . . . . . . • • • . • . . •. 407
xii TABLE OF CONTENTS
Entropy Principle in the Estimation of
Gumbel Parameters
by A. Kumar, B. P. Par ida and
R. Devj 419
SECTION 7 SELECTION OF FLOOD FREQUENCY MODELS
Assessment of Use of At-Site and Regional
Flood Data for Flood Frequency Estimation
by C. S. Hebson and C. Cunnane 433
An Empirical Study of Probability
Distributions of Annual Maximum
Floods
by A. R. Rao and P. S. Arora 449
Comparison of Some Flood Frequency Distributions
Using Empirical Data
by D. Jain and V. P. Singh . . . . . 467
Use of Historical Data in Flooo Frequency
Analysis
by J. i'f. Damazio and J. Kelman .. 487
The ]983 Iquacu River Flood - Effect of a
Rare Flood on Frequency Analyses
by H. D. Fill, M. R. von Borstel Sugai
and N. L. de S. Pinto ...• 499
Analysjs of Flood Frequencies in the
Cauvery Valley
by M. Ramesh, M. C. S. Murthy and
R. Prasad 505
SECTION 8 MULTIVARIATE STOCHASTIC MODELS
A Multivariate Stochastic Flood Analysis
Using Entropy
hy P. F. Krstanovic and V. P. Singh 515
Multivariate Partial Duration Series in
Flood Risk Analysis
by F. N. Correia .. 541
Another ~ook at the Joint Probability
of Rainfall and Runoff
by C. T. Haan and B. N. Wilson 555
A Bivariate Flood Model and its
Application
by B. Sackl and H. Bergmann 571