Hurricanes: Their Nature and Impacts on Society

301 Pages·2007·29.49 MB·English

Hurricanes
Roger A. Pielke, Jr
National Centerf or Atmospheric Research
and
Roger A. Pielke, Sr
Colorado State University
JOHN WILEY & SONS
Chichester. New York. Weinheim .Brisbane. Singapore. Toronto
Copyright @ 1997 by John Wiley & Sons Ltd,
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Dedication
We dedicate this book to the planners, engineers, builders, forecasters,
emergencym anagers, relief workers, and other public and private officials and
volunteers who have committed their lives to preparing for and respondingt o
hurricane impacts on society.
Contents
Dedication Ix
Foreword. Xl
Preface. XV
CHAPTER 1 Introduction: Science,P olicy, and Hurricanes 1
1.1 The Hurricane: "A Melancholy Event" 1
1.2 "We Need Help": Hurricane Andrew in South Florida,
August 1992 . 2
1.2.1 Forecast. 3
1.2.2 Impact 7
1.2.3 Response. 10
1.3 Defining the Problem. 14
1.3.1 The hurricane as an extreme meteorologicale vent 15
1.3.2 Hurricanes in North American history. 16
1.3.3 Ten notable hurricanes of the past century. 19
1.3.4 Extreme weather events 25
1.3.5 Science in service to society 26
1.3.6 The challenge: toward a more usables cience 30
CHAPTER 2 The US Hurricane Problem 31.
2.1 RefraIning the US Hurricane Problem. 31.
2.1.1 The challenge ofp roblem definition. 31.
2.1.2 The conventionafl raming of the US hurricane
problem 35
2.1.3 Societal vulnerability as an alternativef raming of
the hurricane problem. 37
2.2 Vulnerability to hurricanes . 38
2.2.1 Hu"icane incidence 39
2.2.2 Hurricane incidencea nd climate change. 47
2.2.3 Exposure to hurricanes. 49
VI CONTENfS
2.3 Assessmenotf Vulnerabilityt o Hurricanes. 59
2.3.1 Tropical cyclone risk assessment 59
2.3.2 Societal vulnerability to tropical cyclones: a
framework for assessment. 64
2.3.3 Incidencea ssessment .. 65
2.3.4 Exposure assessment .I . 65
CHAPTER 3 Tropical Cyclones on Planet Earth .. 68
3.1 Life of a Hurricane. 68
3.1.1 Birth ~d growth .I . 68
3.1..23 DMeactuaryity. . 72
79
3.1.4 Criteria for developmenat nd intensification of a
tropical cyclone 82
3.2 Special Cases of Development and Intensification. 83
3.3 Geographic and SeasonalD istribution. 85
3.3.1 Origin . 85
3.3.2 Movement. 85
3.3.3 Tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Ocean Basin 87
CHAPTER 4 Hurricane Forecasts .I . 92
4.1 Tropical Cyclone Movement. .. 92
4.2 External Flow: The SteeringC urrent. 92
4.3 Interaction of the Steering Current and the
Hurricane 99
4.4 Internal Flow. 102
4.5 Tropical Cyclone Track, Intensity, and Seasonal
Forecasting. 102
4.5.1 Tropical cyclone track predictions . 102
4.5.2 Tropical cyclone intensity changep redictions 106
4.5.3 Seasonalp redictions of tropical cyclone activity 109
4.5.4 Attempts at tropical cyclone modification 111
4.5.5 Value to society of forecasts 113
CHAPTER 5 Hurricane Impacts. ... 118
5.1 Ocean Impacts 118
5.2 Land Impacts at the Coast and a Short Distance
Inland 119
5.2.1 Storm surge ... 120
5.2.2 Storm surge analysis . 121
CONTENTS VlI
5.2.3 WindY. . .122
5.2.4 Rainfall. . .125
5.2.5 Tornadoes. .125
5.2.6 Inland impacts. .127
5.3 SocietaIl mpacts. .131
5.3.1 Hurricane impacts on society. .131
5.3.2 The challenge of estimating damages .134
5.3.3 Summary. .137
CHAPTER 6 Societal Responses. .139
6.1 Understanding Societal Responsest o Weather Events .139
6.2 Long-Term Social and Decision Processes. .141
6.2.1 Preparing for evacuation . .141
6.2.2 Preparing for impacts. .142
6.2.3 Preparing for recovery. .144
6.3 Short-Term Decision Processes .148
6.3.1 Forecast: the art and science of hurricane track
.148
prediction.
6.3.2 Impact: surviving the storm .152
6.3.3 Response:r ecovery and restoration. . .153
6.4 Conclusion: PreparednessA ssessment. .. .154
CHAPTER 7 Hurricane Andrew: Forecast, Impact, Response .156
7.1 Introduction. .156
7.2 Forecast. ... .156
7.2.1 Hu"icane track and intensity. .156
7.2.2 Evacuation .158
7.3 Impact .163
7.3.1 Direct damagesfr om Hurricane Andrew .163
7.3.2 Building codes: construction, implementation,
enforcemenat,n d compliance 170
7.3.3 Insurance. . 176
7.4 Response. 177
7.4.1 Recovery. 177
7.4.2 Restoration . 179
CHAPTER 8 Tropical Cyclone Fundamentals .181
8.1 From Knowledge to Action. .181
8.2 Ten Important Lessons of Hurricanes. .182
8.3 Last Words. .191
viii CONTENTS
APPENDIX A Additional Reading. 194
APPENDIX B Economic and Casualty Data for die United
States 198
APPENDIX C SelectedD ata on Tropical Stonn and Hurricane
Incidence in die Atlantic Ocean Basin. 204
APPENDIX D SelectedD ata and Names of Tropical Cyclones
in Ocean Basins Around die World 210
APPENDIX E Guide for Local Hurricane Decision-Makers . 232
APPENDIX F Units 256
References 258
Index 276
Foreword
Before the mid-l 960s, studies of the societal impact of hurricanes in the
United Statesw ere founded mainly on the statistics of mortality and economic
losses.T hese statistics, showing a significant steady reduction in the ratio of
lives lost to property damage, were widely (and properly) used as evidence of
increasing effectiveness of hurricane warning services. Some researchers,
however, found these figures more troublesome than encouraging, in view of
the rapidly increasing amount of property at risk along southern US coastal
areas followed inevitably by expansion in numbers of lives in harm's way.
During the 1940sa nd 1950s,c oncern grew in Congresso ver the progressive
increases in the number of hurricanes affecting the United States each year.
This concern reached boiling point in 1954 when three major hurricanes,
Carol, Edna, and Hazel, ravaged coastal areas from the Carolinas to Maine.
The response was a recurring appropriation, beginning in 1955, of con-
siderable funds for hurricane researcha nd new technologiest o deal with ti)i
perception of an increasing annual threat from hurricanes. This infusion of
new funds for programs to minimize losseso f life and property, led social and
physical scientists and engineers individually to accelerate their efforts in
search of more effective means and options for disasterm itigation. It was a
single catastrophic event, however -Hurricane Camille of 1969 -which
brought these separate efforts and disciplines together in recognition of the
multi-faceted nature of the problem.
Hurricane Camille, which ravaged the coastlines of Louisiana, Mississippi,
and Alabama early on the morning of 18 August 1969, brought a new
dimension for considering the destructive potential of a major hurricane, and
the variety of societal responsesi nvolved. Camille brought a storm surge of
nearly 25 feet, the highest ever recorded in the Western Hemisphere, the
second lowest pressure on record in the Western Hemisphere at that time,
maximum winds of record hurricane strength, record property losses of $1.4
billion, and the loss of 256 lives. Finally, after moving inland more than a
thousand miles, it deposited maximum point rainfall amounts -in excesso f
27 inches in Virginia -before moving out into the open Atlantic and
regaining hurricane wind strength. As a consequenceo f warnings, more than
75000 were evacuated inland from exposedc oastal locations.