How Planning Ahead Will Make a Difference PDF
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OUPCORRECTEDPROOF–FINAL,1/4/2016,SPi DULL DISASTERS? OUPCORRECTEDPROOF–FINAL,1/4/2016,SPi ‘Withinnovationsinscienceandfinance,makingdisasters‘dull’mustbeouraim.Shocks don’tneedtobecomefullblowndisasters,ifwebetteranticipateandpre-planforshocks, andreinforcelocalresponsecapacity.TheWorldHumanitarianSummitandwhatflows fromitprovideakeyopportunitytomakethishappen.’ StephenO’Brien,UnitedNationsUnder-Secretary-GeneralforHumanitarian AffairsandEmergencyReliefCoordinator,UnitedNations OfficeforCoordinationofHumanitarianAffairs ‘Athought-provokingbookwithaselectionofexcellentideasformanagingrisks.Fora countrylikeEthiopiasubjecttofrequentdroughttheideasonplanningforandmanaging shocks in advance makes sense. Climate change makes it even more likely that the frequencyoftheseshockswillincreaseinthefuture,andweneedtoplanforthis.This kindofapproach,linkingthepublicandprivatesectorininsuringandfinancingdisasters, givesusmuchtotakeawayandconsider.’ SufianAhmed,AdvisertothePrimeMinisterofEthiopia; FormerMinisterofFinance,Ethiopia ‘This book is a timely and valuable contribution to an important global conversation on addressing risk and vulnerability. Disasters are becoming more severe and the impact of climate change—the ultimate threat multiplier—is exacerbating food insecurity, water scarcity, conflict and migration. In Dull Disasters?, the authors offer a persuasive message: today’sdisastersneedleaderswhodonotjustrespondemotionallyandenergeticallytocrises, butleaderswhousepolitical,legal,andfinancialmechanismsthatresultinbetterpreparedness.’ GloriaGrandolini,Sr.DirectorFinanceandMarkets GlobalPractice,TheWorldBankGroup ‘Countrieshaveagreatdealtogainfromanticipatingtheuseofaportfoliooffinancial instrumentsto improvetheir capacity to copewith disastersand managecatastrophic risks.Doingsorequirescarefuldiagnostics,design,experimentation,andevaluation.Yet, this is a vastly under-researched topic. In that perspective, the book makes a unique contributiontotheliteraturebycriticallysummarizingthecurrentstateofresearchon thisissueandconstructingaresearchagenda.Thiswillbemostusefulinguidingfuture researchonthemanagementofdisasterriskandrecovery.’ AlaindeJanvry,ProfessorofAgricultural&Resource Economics,UniversityofCaliforniaatBerkeley ‘Natural catastrophes are increasing in frequency and severity. What is more, the gap betweeneconomicandinsuredlosseshasremainedstubbornlylarge.Theconsequences areespeciallysevereinemerginganddevelopingcountries,whichareboththeworsthit andtheleastprepared.Toolsexisttonarrowthatgapusinginnovativesolutionsthatcan helpcountries,citiesandindividualspreservehard-wondevelopmentgains—eveninthe faceoffloods,earthquakes,adverseweatherandothersetbacks.Thisbookhighlightsa sensiblewayforwardtomaketheworldmoreresilient.’ MartynParker,ChairmanGlobalPartnership,SwissRe ‘Given theincreasing frequency and severityof natural disasters broughtonbyclimate changeandthestressofmassivenumbersofdisplacedpeopleplacedonallofsocietydueto man-made disasters, planning for disastersis increasinglycrucialforsociety.This book bringstheneeds,principlesandprocessestogetherinahighlyreadablefashion.Itisamust readforallpolicymakersandstudentsofpublic,private,andnon-governmentinstitutions.’ JerrySkees,H.B.PriceProfessorofAgriculturalPolicyandRisk, UniversityofKentucky OUPCORRECTEDPROOF–FINAL,1/4/2016,SPi DANIEL J. CLARKE STEFAN DERCON D U L L D I S A S T E R S ? How Planning Ahead Will Make a Difference 1 OUPCORRECTEDPROOF–FINAL,1/4/2016,SPi 3 GreatClarendonStreet,Oxford,OXDP, UnitedKingdom OxfordUniversityPressisadepartmentoftheUniversityofOxford. ItfurtherstheUniversity’sobjectiveofexcellenceinresearch,scholarship, andeducationbypublishingworldwide.Oxfordisaregisteredtrademarkof OxfordUniversityPressintheUKandincertainothercountries #InternationalBankforReconstructionandDevelopment/TheWorldBank Themoralrightsoftheauthorshavebeenasserted FirstEditionpublishedin Impression: Thisisanopenaccesspublication.Exceptwhereotherwisenoted,thisworkisdistributedunder theCreativeCommonsAttribution.IGOlicense(CCBY.IGO),acopyofwhichisavailable athttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/./igo/.Itispermittedtocopy,distribute,transmit, andadaptthiswork,includingforcommercialpurposes,providedthatappropriatecreditis giventothecreatorandcopyrightholder,alinkisprovidedtothelicense,andanychanges madetotheworkareproperlyindicated.Youmaydosoinanyreasonablemanner,butnotin anywaythatsuggeststhelicensorendorsesyouoryouruse. Pleasecitetheworkasfollows:Clarke,D.J.,&Dercon,S.()DullDisasters?Howplanning aheadwillmakeadifference,NewYork,OxfordUniversityPress,DOI:./acprof:oso/ ..#TheWorldBank,CCBY.IGO EnquiriesconcerninguseoutsidethetermsoftheCreativeCommonslicenseshouldbesentto theRightsDepartment,OxfordUniversityPress,attheaboveaddress. Thefindings,interpretations,andconclusionsexpressedinthisworkdonotnecessarilyreflect theviewsofTheWorldBank,itsBoardofExecutiveDirectors,orthegovernmentsthey represent.TheWorldBankdoesnotguaranteetheaccuracyofthedataincludedinthiswork. Theboundaries,colours,denominations,andotherinformationshownonanymapinthiswork donotimplyanyjudgmentonthepartofTheWorldBankconcerningthelegalstatusofany territoryortheendorsementoracceptanceofsuchboundaries.Nothinghereinshallconstitute orbeconsideredtobealimitationuponorwaiveroftheprivilegesandimmunitiesofThe WorldBank,allofwhicharespecificallyreserved. PublishedintheUnitedStatesofAmericabyOxfordUniversityPress MadisonAvenue,NewYork,NY,UnitedStatesofAmerica BritishLibraryCataloguinginPublicationData Dataavailable LibraryofCongressControlNumber: ISBN –––– PrintedinGreatBritainby ClaysLtd,StIvesplc LinkstothirdpartywebsitesareprovidedbyOxfordingoodfaithand forinformationonly.Oxforddisclaimsanyresponsibilityforthematerials containedinanythirdpartywebsitereferencedinthiswork. OUPCORRECTEDPROOF–FINAL,1/4/2016,SPi For Pramila, Quentin, Katie, and Emily OUPCORRECTEDPROOF–FINAL,1/4/2016,SPi OUPCORRECTEDPROOF–FINAL,1/4/2016,SPi PREFACE This book stems from our urge to communicate that there is a better way of protecting people from the dire effects of natural disasters,particularlyindevelopingcountries.Asacademicsandpro- fessionals, we have worked on risk and insurance for much of our careers. In the pages that follow, we want to share what we have learned, and, in doing so, contribute to better thought and action on howtoshieldpeopleandpropertyfromtheconsequencesofextreme natural events suchasfloods, droughts,earthquakes, and pandemics. Inshort,wewilllookathowto‘dull’disasters,makingsurethatsuch eventsdonotleadtoenduringlevelsofhardship. Oneofus,Stefan,hasstudiedfordecadeshowriskaffectspeoplein some of the poorest settings in the world, such as in Ethiopia and Tanzania,butalsohowthepoorhavedevisedingeniouswaystolimit theconsequencesofshockstotheirincomesandlivelihoods.Andyet, despite their valiant attempts, they continue to struggle to handle extreme events such as droughts or floods, which have bleak short- and long-term consequences for children and adults. They end up losing their meagre possessions, risk dying too young, or become disabled from poor nutrition. One of the reasons for writing this book is to promote better ways of helping people avoid these outcomes. Daniel was first a trained actuary, before studying to become an economist. He brings the world of finance and insurance to these problems, asking what can finance do (and what it cannot do) to improve riskmanagement?Asresearchers, wecollaborated in think- ing through improving systems for financing risks at the household level.Caninsuranceevermakesense?Arethecurrentpilotinitiatives vii OUPCORRECTEDPROOF–FINAL,1/4/2016,SPi PREFACE really offering solutions? Can we find ways of designing insurance systems to complement and strengthen the risk-coping mechanisms poorpeoplealreadyuse? In recent years, we both have become strongly immersed in the world of development policy and practice. Daniel joined the Disaster Risk Financing and Insurance Program, a partnership between the World Bank and the Global Facility for Disaster Reduc- tionandRecovery(GFDRR),designedtohelpgovernmentsandtheir partnersimprovehowtheymanagedisasterrisk.Hehasworkedwith some forty developing countries towards implementing the sort of solutions described in this book, and he has seen first-hand the commitment of professionals and the importance of them working together towards politically sellable solutions. Unfortunately, quite a few countries are continuing to find the job of disaster risk manage- ment challenging. But there are clearly positive lessons to be learned fromothercountries,andwesharesomeoftheseinthisbook. Stefan is Chief Economist at the Department for International Development (DFID), the government department responsible for the UK’s development aid and policy. At DFID, he advises on more orlessanythingandeverything.AnyoneworkingatDFID,oneofthe world’s largest humanitarian and development donors, cannot help but be struck by the state of the global humanitarian system. It is under pressure—even broke, it is said—drained financially by large andcostlyconflict-relatedhumanitariancrises.Findingbetterfunding models, at least for problems that are more tractable, such as for naturaldisasters,ismoreimportantthanever. Bothofusareconvincedthatatboththecountryandgloballevels people can be better protected against the dire consequences of extreme natural events. Although what we have learned about risk and insurance is important, we have realized from our work that things poor people themselves have found to work well could serve as models for application nationally and globally. Across the world and throughout history, people have set up what are essentially mutualinsurancearrangementsinwhichgroupssupporteachother, viii OUPCORRECTEDPROOF–FINAL,1/4/2016,SPi PREFACE abiding by clear and credible rules that make the arrangements sus- tainable.Thesewerethetypesofarrangementswehavestudiedatthe locallevelinEthiopia. Clearly, the national and global challenges in dealing with natural disasters are tougher than the problems these groups can solve. Nevertheless, in this book we will show that the rules and systems thesegroupsuseareessentiallysoundprotectionprinciplesthatcould inspirenationalgovernmentsandinternationalagenciesaswell.Itwill nodoubt notbeeasytomovetowardsthenewapproachlaidoutin thisbook.Thatwillrequire carefultechnicalworkaswellascourage and commitment by political leaders. Some have risen to this chal- lenge with more credible disaster planning and financing.It is hoped thatthisbookwillinspireotherstofollow. ix
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