sustainability Article How Myopia Archetypes Lead to Non-Sustainability PieroMella* ID andMichelaPellicelli ID DepartmentofEconomicsandManagement,UniversityofPavia,27100Pavia,Italy;[email protected] * Correspondence:[email protected];Tel.:+39-0382-986-237 Received:9November2017;Accepted:19December2017;Published:22December2017 Abstract: Muchoftheliteratureonsustainabilityhastriedtodefinethe“virtuousbehaviour”of “agents” (man and his social and economic organizations) so that it respects the “sustainability constraint.”Thispaperprovidesa“mirror-image”approach,basedontheideathatitisaboveall necessarytounderstandwhymenandorganizationstendtodevelop,attimesunconsciouslyand dishonestly,damagingbehaviourthatturnsintonon-sustainability. Inotherwords,toorientman toward sustainable behaviour it is indispensable to understand the “reasons” for the behaviour thatproducesnon-sustainableeffects. Regardingsustainabilityproblems, weshallintroducethe hypothesisthatnon-sustainablebehaviourisnotirrationalinanabsolutesensebutderivesfromthe actionofthreeconnected“behaviouralarchetypes”thataccuratelydescribethe“natural”behaviour of individuals in pursuing their aims: behaving in a way that will provide evident short-term advantages,bothindividualandlocal,whileignoringthedisadvantagesandharmsuchbehaviour producesinthelongrun, atthecollectiveandgloballevel. Tosolvetheproblem, weshalltryto identifythe“levers”thatweakenthearchetypesandreversetheireffects,therebyrequiringsacrifices which are unacceptable to some. The paper presents four emblematic cases of non-sustainable behaviouranddemonstratesthatsustainabilitymustbecomeafundamentalstrategicdriver. Keywords: sustainability;systemthinking;archetypesofmyopia;sustainabilityasastrategicdriver; tragedyofthecommons;wastedisposal;globalwarming 1. Introduction In recent years firms have been subject to increasing pressure in terms of sustainability and sustainable development—according to the well-known definition given by the WCED-the “BrundtlandCommission”[1](p.43):“developmentthatmeetstheneedsofthepresentwithoutcompromising theabilityoffuturegenerationstomeettheirownneeds”—asregardsbothcurrentprocessesaswellas thosebeingdeveloped. More that a definition, this quote is a “plea” to undertake sustainable behaviour to ensure that today’s benefits do not become harmful for future generations. It is also possible to reformulatethehopesoftheBrundtlandCommissionasfollows: if,ontheonehand,agents—men and organizations—have to continually develop, on the other they must avoid non-sustainable environmental, economic and social behaviour. If such behaviour already exists, they should try toremedythedamageandaboveallavoiditsrepetition. Over these decades, the definition of sustainable development evolved. This definition was vaguebutitcleverlycapturedtwofundamentalissues,theproblemoftheenvironmentaldegradation that so commonly accompanies economic growth and yet the need for such growth to alleviate poverty[2](p. 1). Whyisthispleanecessary? Arenothumanagents—men,organizationsandnations—ableto assesstheirownbehaviourandchoosethatwhichdoesnotcauseirreversibleharmforourfuture survival?Istherean“irrational”rationality?Doesthenon-sustainabilityoftoday’sactionsandpolicies Sustainability2018,10,21;doi:10.3390/su10010021 www.mdpi.com/journal/sustainability Sustainability2018,10,21 2of24 derivefrombadfaith,ignorance,individualinterests? Whyaremanandhisorganizationsincapable ofseeingintothedistantfutureandinsteadbehaveinamyopicmanner? Theaimofthisconceptualpaperistobuildasuitablemodeltounderstandhumanbehaviour thatderivesfromamyopicvisionofitsconsequences. Theattemptwillbemadetodemonstratethat theproblemofnon-sustainabilityoriginatesfromtwofundamentalfactorsorcognitivecauses: (1) thetendencyoftheindividualtorepeatbehaviourthatgiveshiman“immediateadvantage” that can be observed and measured and at the same to ignore, or not give much weight to, thedisadvantagessuchbehaviourwillcauseinfuturefortheindividualinquestionorforothers. (2) thelackofanadequateinformationsystemforindividualsregardingthepresentstateofreality and its future evolution; such ignorance blocks them from modifying their myopic thinking avoidingthedisastrouseffectsoftheirbehaviour. In fact, many authors and commentators confuse causes with effects. When one asserts that globalwarmingderives,amongothercauses,fromCO emissions,orthatthepollutionoftheseasis 2 causedbytheexcessiveconsumptionandfailuretoproperlydisposeofplasticmaterials,onedoesnot explainanything;wemustunderstandthecausesthatdrivetheeconomytoproducetheseemissions orconsumersmakeextensiveuseofplasticmaterialsandwebelieveintheneedtoinvestigatethe behaviourofproducersandconsumers. Theobjectiveofthisstudyistopresentasimplebutgeneral recurrentmodel—anarchetype—thatcanshedlightonthemotivationsofirrationalbehavioursthat producenon-sustainableeffectsandtooutlineastrategytoweakenthesebehaviours. The Systems Thinking approach will be used to construct this model based on Peter Senge’s approach in The Fifth Discipline [3] (recently formalized by Mella [4]), one of the most effective instrumentsforobserving,modelingandunderstandinghumanandorganizationalbehavioursince itlinksacoherentconceptualframeworkandsimple, symboliclanguagethatallowsonetoeasily buildandquicklyinterpretoperationalsense-makingmodelstodescribe,understandandsimulate thebehaviourofawiderangeofdynamicphenomena[3–5]. 2. ReviewoftheEssentialLiteratureonSustainability The concept of sustainability had its earliest origins in the international debate: “The limits to growth” [6], which centered on how man should intervene to create a curve of logistic accommodationtoresourcestolimitexponentialgrowthinpopulation,food,industrialproduction, energyconsumptionandCO emissionsandtoavoidacatastrophe. 2 Later, in the 1980s and ’90s, serious environmental problems, such as the reduction in the ozone layer and climate changes, caused a greater focus on the concept of sustainable growth. Thenatureofthedebateshiftedfrom‘limitstogrowth’totheconceptofsustainabledevelopment, withthepublicationofthemorecelebratedreports: “WorldConservationStrategy”,publishedbythe InternationalUnionfortheConservationofNatureandNaturalResources[7]and“OurCommon Future”publishedbyWCED[1]. Themodernconceptsofsustainabilitybegantotakeshapeduringthe1990s,afterwhichtherewas agrowthinthenumberofdefinitionsinvariouscontexts. Wehaveseenaproliferationinthebusiness andmanagementliterature,withanexplosionintheinternationalliterature,inwhichsustainabilityis themaintheme. Thetermsustainabilityisfrequentlyusedtodescribeproblemsrelatedtotechnology, economicdevelopmentandmanagerialapproachesinvariousfieldssuchassustainabletechnology, sustainableeconomicsandsustainablebusiness. Toensureasustainableeconomy,severalkeyareas havebeenexplored,suchasenvironmentaleffectsandtheconsequencesfornaturefromunconstrained economicgrowth, alongwiththeprospectsforeconomicactivitythattakesgreateraccountofthe socialandenvironmentalconsequencesofmarketbehaviour[8–10]. Costanza and Patten [11] take the meaning of sustainability from biology, where the term originated: “Biologically,sustainabilitymeansavoidingextinctionandlivingtosurviveandreproduce. Sustainability2018,10,21 3of24 Economically,itmeansavoidingmajordisruptionsandcollapses,hedgingagainstinstabilitiesand discontinuities. Sustainability,atitsbase,alwaysconcernstemporalityandinparticular,longevity”. Sustainabilityisusuallydefinedas:“abroadinterpretationofecologicaleconomicswhereenvironmental and ecological variables and issues are basic but part of a multidimensional perspective. Social, cultural, health-relatedandmonetary/financialaspectshavetobeintegratedintotheanalysis”[12]. With regard to the economics of production organizations, sustainability means adequately sustainingbusinesses,avoidingperiodsofinstabilityanddiscontinuityandallowingeconomicactivity tosurviveovertime. Thebasicideaisthatsustainabilityinterfaceswiththeeconomythroughthe socialandecologicalconsequencesofeconomicactivities[13]. Manyeconomicdefinitionsofsustainabilityhadbeenputforth. Wecanmentionseveralrecurring aspectsofthedefinitionofthisterm[14]: (1) itreferstoawayofobservingenvironmentalproblemsinrelationtotheeconomyandsociety; (2) theinterconnectionsareusuallydescribedasatriangle,a‘three-leggedstool’;oroverlapping circlesinaVenndiagram,wherethethreeelementscanbediverselydescribedastheeconomy, environmentandsociety,orequity,ecologyandtheeconomy; (3) despite the fact the specific elements and their relevance can change, what distinguishes sustainabilityistheobservationofthesystemicconnectionsandtheideathattheconstituent elementsshouldbemutuallysustainingandreinforcing; (4) the focus on intergenerational equity; that is, guaranteeing to future generations the same conditionsavailabletothepresentgeneration; (5) afinalaspectsharedbythevariousdefinitions,whichdiffersfromthetraditionalwayofobserving theenvironment,theeconomyandsociety,istheneedtogobeyondthemerecompatibilityof existinglawsandregulations. Nevertheless,ingeneral,asPearceetal.[15]hascommented: “definingsustainabledevelopment isnotadifficultissue. Thedifficultissueisindeterminingwhathastobedonetoachievesustainable development,assumingitisadesirablegoal”. Toincreasethedisseminationofsustainableobjectives,numerousinternational,national,stateand localgovernmentprotocolsandpolicies,aswellasthe‘missionstatements’ofcorporationsandNGOs, include a commitment to sustainable development. Based on the guidelines of the “Brundtland Commission” [1], the United Nations has defined a series of Millennium Development Goals. Thesegoalsaimateconomicdevelopmentandtheeliminationofpovertyandtheobjectivesinclude humanrights,health,educationandenvironmentalquestions.Inthiscontextthe:“efficienciesofmarkets, combinedwiththeresourcesandmanagerialexpertiseoflargemultinationals,areconsideredcrucialsuccess factorsinachievingthesegoals”[16]. Inaddition,theGlobalCompactinternationalinitiativewasstronglyrequestedbytheUnited Nationstogetcompanies,togetherwithUNagencies,toembraceasetofsharedvaluesandprinciples intheareasofhumanrights,laborandenvironmentalstandards. Alongwiththisprocesstoinvolve firms in promoting sustainable growth, the Triple Bottom Line has gained acceptance as a new instrumenttomeasurecompanyperformancefollowingthreeapproaches: economic,environmental andsocial[17–21]. Attheinternationallevel,thisemphasishasledtoaconsiderableefforttodefinethe commonstandardsforthedraftingofsustainabilityreportsandtoidentifyperformanceindicatorsthat couldhighlightthevaluecreatedinthesocialandenvironmentalareasaswell. TheGRI—Sustainability ReportingGuidelinesonEconomic,EnvironmentalandSocialPerformance[22],areamongthemostwidely usedforsustainabilityreporting,withthepurposeofcommunicatingandcalculatingtheimpactof businessactivitiesontheeconomic,socialandenvironmentalareas. Recently, there has been interest in making company activities more sustainable and also in developingsustainabilityasadriverforcorporateeconomicsuccess[8,23–25]. Anumberoftheoretical works have conceptualized the link between environmental performance, social performance and financial performance [26–29]. In this context, Schaltegger and Synnestvedt [30] underline Sustainability2018,10,21 4of24 Sustainability 2018, 10, 21 4 of 23 Sthusattaincaobirlpityo 2r0a1t8e, 1m0, a21n agement would have to identify a specific set of restrictions/incentive4s off o23r targeting the cost savings and implement concrete actions. Therefore, today “there is wide consensus environmentalprotectionand,asasecondstep,defineobjectivesandgoals,formulateplanstargeting that the idea of sustainability figures as one of the leading models for societal development by indicating the ttahregceotisntgs atvhien gcossatn sdaviminpglse manedn timcopnlcermeteenat cctoionncsr.eTteh aecretifoonres,. tTohdearyef“otrhee,r etoisdwayid “etchoenres eins swusidteh acotnthseenisdueas direction in which societies ought to develop” [31]. tohfastu stthaei nidaebail iotyf sfiugsutareinsaabsiolintye ofifgtuhreelse aadsi nognem oofd tehlse floerasdoincige tmaloddeevlesl ofoprm seonctiebtyali nddeivcealtoipnmgethnet dbiyr eicntidoincaitninwgh tihche dsoirceiecttiieosno iung whthticohd seovceileotpie”s [o3u1g].ht to develop” [31]. 3. Method: Senge’s Systems Thinking Approach 33.. 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DDiirreeccttiioonn ooff vvaarriiaattiioonn iinn ccaauussee//eefffefecct trreelalattioionnsshhipipss. . Two interconnecteMd ovdaerli a1b. Dleisr eccatinon s ohfo vwar itahtieo n“ sina mcaeu”s e(/“esff,e”c to rre l“a+ti”o)n sohri p“so. pposite” (“o,” or “−“) directTiowno oinf tevracroiantnioenct. eTdhvea r“isaabmlees”c adnireschtoiown thmeea“nsasm the”at( “asn,” inorcr“e+as”e) oorr “doepcpreoassitee ”in( “toh,”e oforr“m−e“r) Two interconnected variables can show the “same” (“s,” or “+”) or “opposite” (“o,” or “−“) pdrioredcuticoens oaf vcoarnisaetiqoune.nTth ien“csraemasee” odri rdecetciroenamsee ainn sththea tlaatnteirn; c“reoapspeoosritdee”c rdeiarseectiinonth einfdoircmateersp trhoadtu caens direction of variation. The “same” direction means that an increase or decrease in the former ianccroenasseeq/udeencrteianscere ians ethoer tdaeilc vreaarsiaebinlet phreoldatutecer;s“ ao dppecorseiates”e/dinircercetaiosne iinn dthicea theesatdh avtaarniaibnlcer e[3a2s,e3/3d].e c rease produces a consequent increase or decrease in the latter; “opposite” direction indicates that an inthTewtaoil ovra rmiaobrlee vparroidaublceess faodrmec rae aclsoes/edin ccaruesaasle cihnaitnh,e ohre laodopv, awrihaebnle t[h3e2y,3 a3r]e. connected at the same increase/decrease in the tail variable produces a decrease/increase in the head variable [32,33]. time iTnw towoor dmiroercetivoanrsia; bthlees ffiorsrtm caaucsloesse dvacraiuastaiolnchsa iinn, tohrel osoepc,owndh ebnutth tehyisa lraetecor ncnauecsteesd vaatrtihateiosnams ient itmhee Two or more variables form a closed causal chain, or loop, when they are connected at the same fiinrsttw. Tohdeirree actrieo onns;lyth tewfior bstacsiacu tsyepsevsa orfi altoioopn:s inthesecondbutthislatercausesvariationsinthefirst. time in two directions; the first causes variations in the second but this later causes variations in the Thereareonlytwobasictypesofloop: 1f.i rst.R Tehineforrec ianrge looonplys t[Rw]o, ibn awsihci ctyh pthees voaf lluoeosp o:f the two variables have the same direction of variation: “s 11.. aRRneedini nfsof”roc riocnrign “glooo loapnos dp[R so],[” Ri;n ]t h,wiishn iincwhte htrhcicoeh nvnatelhuceteisov noa—fl tuhinees stwuocfoc etvhsaseriviatebw lreoesp hvetaaivtriieoa ntbhsl eeo ssfa thmhaeev sdeyisrttheecemti’sosa ncm yocefl evd—airrreieacitntiifooonnr:c e“ossf tahvnea drrie asct”ipi oornor:c “a“los i naacnnrddea sso”e”s;o otrhr“ irsoe dianuntecdtricooon”ns;n, teahcsit ssiohinno—wtenrinc i onsn utnhcceee cfstosiloilvonew— rienipnge Mstiutoicodcneessl s2oi:fv tehree spyesttietmio’ns scyocflteh—erseyinsftoermce’ss tchyec rleec—iprreoicnaflo inrcceresatshees orer criepdruocctaiolnins,c arse ashseoswonr irne tdhue cftoilolonws,inags sMhoodwenl 2i:n thefollowingModel2: Model 2. Reinforcing loops. 2. Balancing loops [B], in which the valMMueoosdd oeefll 22th.. eRR eetwiinnoffoo (rroccriinn mgg olloorooepp) ssin.. terconnected variables show a different 2. dBiarleacntciionng loofo vpas r[iBa]t,i oinn :w “hs iachn dth oe“ v oalru “eos oafn tdh es ”t waso s (hoorw mno irne )t hine tMercoodnenl e3c: ted variables show a different 2. Balancing loops [B], in which the values of the two (or more) interconnected variables show direction of variation: “s and o“ or “o and s” as shown in the Model 3: adifferentdirectionofvariation: “sando“or“oands”asshownintheModel3: Model 3. Balancing loops. Model 3. Balancing loops. Sustainability 2018, 10, 21 4 of 23 targeting the cost savings and implement concrete actions. Therefore, today “there is wide consensus that the idea of sustainability figures as one of the leading models for societal development by indicating the direction in which societies ought to develop” [31]. 3. Method: Senge’s Systems Thinking Approach The logic of Systems Thinking can be summarized by this general rule [4]: if you want to understand the “world” you must observe the variables that represent the dynamics of its phenomena and link them together to form unitary, repetitive (often recursive) systems of interconnected variables whose macro-dynamics, on the one hand, derive from the micro-dynamics of the component variables and on the other condition the dynamics of these variables. To understand the global dynamics of these systems, it is necessary to investigate the “causal connections” between variables that constitute them by precisely identifying the linear chains of causes and effects, especially the circular ones and the feedbacks and loops which make the variables interconnected and interactive, so that when the values of a variable change even those of the causal, interconnected variables must necessarily change. A formal and simple language to correlate variables and variations has been suggested by Peter Senge, who proposes to represent the cause-effect relations using oriented arrows, with the input variables (causes) in the tail and the output variables (effects) at the head of the arrow, as shown in the following Model 1. cause/effect relationship cause/effect relationship X Y X Y “s” “o” +/- (same direction) +/- +/- (opposite direction) -/+ Model 1. Direction of variation in cause/effect relationships. Two interconnected variables can show the “same” (“s,” or “+”) or “opposite” (“o,” or “−“) direction of variation. The “same” direction means that an increase or decrease in the former produces a consequent increase or decrease in the latter; “opposite” direction indicates that an increase/decrease in the tail variable produces a decrease/increase in the head variable [32,33]. Two or more variables form a closed causal chain, or loop, when they are connected at the same time in two directions; the first causes variations in the second but this later causes variations in the first. There are only two basic types of loop: 1. Reinforcing loops [R], in which the values of the two variables have the same direction of variation: “s and s” or “o and o”; this interconnection—in successive repetitions of the system’s cycle—reinforces the reciprocal increases or reductions, as shown in the following Model 2: Model 2. Reinforcing loops. 2. Balancing loops [B], in which the values of the two (or more) interconnected variables show a different Sustainability2018,10,21 5of24 direction of variation: “s and o“ or “o and s” as shown in the Model 3: Model 3. Balancing loops. Model3.Balancingloops. Senge proposed a particularly useful class of Systems Thinking models he named “systems archetypes”. Thesearegeneralrecurrentmodelsofrelationsthatrecurinvarioussituationsandin differentenvironments. Oneofthemostimportantandpotentiallymoreempowering,insightstocomefromtheyoung fieldofsystemsthinkingisthatcertainpatternsofstructurerecuragainandagain. These“systems archetypes”or“genericstructures”embodythekeytolearningtoseestructuresinourpersonaland organizationallives.[... ]Becausetheyaresubtle,whenthearchetypesariseinafamily,anecosystem, anewstory,oracorporation,youoftendonotseethemsomuchasfeelthem. Sometimestheyproduce asenseofdéjàvu,ahunchthatyou’veseenthispatternofforcesbefore. “Thereitisagain”yousayto yourself[3](p. 93). Theaimofarchetypesistorapidlyincreasetheobserver’scapacitytoseethesystemicproblems andtheirstructuresandtoaccustomtheregulatorsandmanagerstosharpentheirperceptioninorder tobeabletoeasilyidentifythesystemicstructuresthatleadtoproblematicsituationsandtheleverage effectofthesestructures,inordertoformulatedefinitivesolutions. The systems archetypes—of which there are only a relatively small number’—suggest that notallmanagementproblemsareunique, somethingthatexperiencedmanagersknowintuitively. Ifreinforcingandbalancingfeedbackanddelaysarelikethenounsandverbsofsystemsthinking, thenthesystemsarchetypesareanalogoustobasicsentencesorsimplestoriesthatgetretoldagain andagain[3](p. 81). Wecanstatethattheproblemslinkedtosustainabilityarise,aremaintainedandaredifficultto resolvebecausetheyderivefromtheeffectofthreefundamentalarchetypesthatguideindividual behaviourtogeneratenon-sustainableeffects. 4. ThreeTypesofInstinctiveArchetypalMyopicBehaviour Thefirstofthetwofactorsthatproducenon-sustainableeffects,indicatedinSection1,canbe understoodfromtheexplanatorypotentialofthreefundamentalarchetypeswhich,whilenotincluded in Senge’s list of archetypes, when taken together provide a convincing explanation of how and whenauseful,repetitivebehaviourofan“agent”—whetheritbeaman,aterritorialorganization, acommunity,anation)canproducenon-sustainableglobalresultsevenifthebehaviourisrational initself. Thefirstarchetype,calledthe“Short-TermMyopiaArchetype”(Figure1)[4](p.234),describesthe behaviourinnateinallmen(agents)ofpreferringbehaviourthatproducesshort-termadvantages (consideredinabroadsense)withoutconsideringthepossibledisadvantagesfromtherepetitionof suchbehaviour. AsshownfromthestructureofthearchetypeinFigure1,arationalagentthatassignsahigh value to short-term advantages deriving from his behaviour (vertical arrow “s”) will most likely repeatthisbehaviournumeroustimes,therebyreinforcingthedesiretoobtainimmediateadvantages (loop[R1])withoutreflectingwhetherdisadvantagesthatinthelong-runproduceconsiderableharm (downwardverticalarrow)accompanythoserepetitiveimmediateadvantages. Theperceptionof short-term advantages reduces the capacity to assess the long-term disadvantages and motivates the agent to continue to repeat such behaviour (loop [R2]). The two loops [R1] and [R2], acting together,reinforceshort-termpreferences,inevitablyproducingdelayedandlarge,oftencatastrophic, problemswhentheeffectofthedisadvantagesbecomesevident. ThemodelinFigure1clearlyshows whythisarchetypeiscalledthe“Short-TermMyopiaArchetype”;itrepresentsthetypicalstructure Sustainability 2018, 10, 21 5 of 23 Senge proposed a particularly useful class of Systems Thinking models he named “systems archetypes”. These are general recurrent models of relations that recur in various situations and in different environments. One of the most important and potentially more empowering, insights to come from the young field of systems thinking is that certain patterns of structure recur again and again. These “systems archetypes” or “generic structures” embody the key to learning to see structures in our personal and organizational lives. […] Because they are subtle, when the archetypes arise in a family, an ecosystem, a new story, or a corporation, you often do not see them so much as feel them. Sometimes they produce a sense of déjà vu, a hunch that you’ve seen this pattern of forces before. “There it is again” you say to yourself [3] (p. 93). The aim of archetypes is to rapidly increase the observer’s capacity to see the systemic problems and their structures and to accustom the regulators and managers to sharpen their perception in order to be able to easily identify the systemic structures that lead to problematic situations and the leverage effect of these structures, in order to formulate definitive solutions. The systems archetypes—of which there are only a relatively small number’—suggest that not all management problems are unique, something that experienced managers know intuitively. If reinforcing and balancing feedback and delays are like the nouns and verbs of systems thinking, then the systems archetypes are analogous to basic sentences or simple stories that get retold again and again [3] (p. 81). We can state that the problems linked to sustainability arise, are maintained and are difficult to resolve because they derive from the effect of three fundamental archetypes that guide individual behaviour to generate non-sustainable effects. 4. Three Types of Instinctive Archetypal Myopic Behaviour The first of the two factors that produce non-sustainable effects, indicated in Section 1, can be understood from the explanatory potential of three fundamental archetypes which, while not included in Senge’s list of archetypes, when taken together provide a convincing explanation of how and when a useful, repetitive behaviour of an “agent”—whether it be a man, a territorial organization, a community, a nation) can produce non-sustainable global results even if the behaviour is rational in itself. Sustainability2018,10,21 6of24 The first archetype, called the “Short-Term Myopia Archetype” (Figure 1) [4] (p. 234), describes the behaviour innate in all men (agents) of preferring behaviour that produces short-term oafdvthaentbaeghesa v(cioounrsidoferaegde nint sa wbrhooadsh soewnsea)n winitnhaotuet tceonndseidnecryintgo tahdeo ppotsasib“sleh odrits-asdigvhatnetda”gersa tfiroonma ltihtye, trheepreetbityiomn aonf isfeuscthin bge“htaevmiopuorr.a lmyopia”. Short-term advantages s o “Perception” of “Perception” of R1 R2 short-term long-term advantages disadvantages s s o Behavior s d d ela y e Long-term disadvantages FFiigguurree 11.. AArrcchheettyyppee ooff SShhoorrtt--tteerrmm pprreeffeerreennccee ((TTeemmppoorraall mmyyooppiiaa)) [[ssoouurrccee:: [[44]] ((pp.. 223355))]].. Thereisnowayout: thisarchetypeisalwayslurkingandoperatesatalltimesandinallplaces, regardless of whether agents are carrying out repetitive behaviours. When we perceive its action, astrategyisnecessarytoweaken,dampenormitigateitsdangerouseffects. Duetothehumannature of the agent, it is very difficult to contrast loop [R1]; instead, it is necessary to weaken loop [R2] byimplementingaconvincinginformationcampaigntomakethedecision-makerconsciousofthe long-termdisadvantagestheshort-termbehaviourcanproduce. Asecondandequallyfrequentarchetype,entirelysimilarinstructuretothefirstarchetype,isthe “LocalMyopiaArchetype”[4](p. 236): eachindividual-agenttendstoprefertherepetitivebehaviour thatbringslocaladvantages,ignoringtheglobaldisadvantagesthatsuchbehaviourcancause. Athird archetype,alsosimilarinstructure,isthe“IndividualMyopiaArchetype”,socalledbecausetheagents preferindividualadvantageseveniftherepetitivebehaviourwillproducedisadvantagesforlarger groups. Localandindividualevaluationsprovideevenmoreincentivetorepeatthebehaviourthat producedadvantageslinkedtothegreatfutureglobalandcollectivedisadvantages. The“Local”and“Individual”Myopiaarchetypesarelinkedtothatofthe“Temporal”Myopia archetypeinthatthelocalandindividualadvantagesfromrepetitivebehaviourareusuallyperceived intheshortterm,whilethenegativeeffectsusuallyoccurinthelongterm. Forthisreason,wecan refertothethreearchetypesasparticularcasesofaunitarymodelcalledthe“Short-Term,Localand IndividualMyopiaArchetypes”,showninFigure2. It is natural to accept sacrifices more willingly for our family than for the collective. Local advantages or disadvantages from public works (pollution sites, dams, highways, nuclear powerplants,etc.) prevailovertheglobaladvantagesordisadvantagesthepublicworkswillprovide the larger collective or territory. “Not in my backyard” is the most common individual response to the community’s request to put up with the construction of public works for the advantage of thecollective. Sustainability 2018, 10, 21 6 of 23 As shown from the structure of the archetype in Figure 1, a rational agent that assigns a high value to short-term advantages deriving from his behaviour (vertical arrow “s”) will most likely repeat this behaviour numerous times, thereby reinforcing the desire to obtain immediate advantages (loop [R1]) without reflecting whether disadvantages that in the long-run produce considerable harm (downward vertical arrow) accompany those repetitive immediate advantages. The perception of short-term advantages reduces the capacity to assess the long-term disadvantages and motivates the agent to continue to repeat such behaviour (loop [R2]). The two loops [R1] and [R2], acting together, reinforce short-term preferences, inevitably producing delayed and large, often catastrophic, problems when the effect of the disadvantages becomes evident. The model in Figure 1 clearly shows why this archetype is called the “Short-Term Myopia Archetype”; it represents the typical structure of the behaviour of agents who show an innate tendency to adopt a “short-sighted” rationality, thereby manifesting “temporal myopia”. There is no way out: this archetype is always lurking and operates at all times and in all places, regardless of whether agents are carrying out repetitive behaviours. When we perceive its action, a strategy is necessary to weaken, dampen or mitigate its dangerous effects. Due to the human nature of the agent, it is very difficult to contrast loop [R1]; instead, it is necessary to weaken loop [R2] by implementing a convincing information campaign to make the decision-maker conscious of the long-term disadvantages the short-term behaviour can produce. A second and equally frequent archetype, entirely similar in structure to the first archetype, is the “Local Myopia Archetype” [4] (p. 236): each individual-agent tends to prefer the repetitive behaviour that brings local advantages, ignoring the global disadvantages that such behaviour can cause. A third archetype, also similar in structure, is the “Individual Myopia Archetype”, so called because the agents prefer individual advantages even if the repetitive behaviour will produce disadvantages for larger groups. Local and individual evaluations provide even more incentive to repeat the behaviour that produced advantages linked to the great future global and collective disadvantages. The “Local” and “Individual” Myopia archetypes are linked to that of the “Temporal” Myopia archetype in that the local and individual advantages from repetitive behaviour are usually perceived in the short term, while the negative effects usually occur in the long term. For this reason, we can refer to the three archetypes as particular cases of a unitary model called the “Short-Term, Sustainability2018,10,21 7of24 Local and Individual Myopia Archetypes”, shown in Figure 2. Short-term, individual and local advantages s o Perception of short- Perception of long- R1 R2 term, individual and term, collective and local advantages global disadvantages s s o Repetitive Behavior s d e y a el d Long-term, collective and global disadvantages FFiigguurree 22.. ““SShhoorrtt--TTeerrmm,, LLooccaall aanndd IInnddiivviidduuaall MMyyooppiiaa AArrcchheettyyppee”” [[ssoouurrccee:: [[44]] ((pp.. 223366))]].. 5. ThreeStrategiestoCountertheArchetypes The“Short-Term,LocalandIndividualMyopiaArchetype”,showninFigure2,clearlyillustrates thatinmanycasesofrepetitivebehaviourtherationalityofshort-term,localandindividualbehaviour isillusoryandtheapparentrationaldecisionsofthesingleagentsareirrationalinthelongrunin a broader context and for the entire collective. The individual advantages prevail and as long as thearchetypecontinuestooperate,everyagentbehavesbasedonhisown“individual”rationality and,withoutrestrictionandadequateinformation,failstoperceivea“global”rationality. Figure2 revealsthatinordertodealwiththeproblemofsustainabilityinindividualbehaviour,notonlyinthe economicareabuttheenvironmentalandsocialonesaswell,itisnecessarytoweakentheloops[R1] and[R2]. ThemodelinFigure3,derivedfromFigure2,allowsustounderstandthatthereareonly threepossibleactions(levers)tocountertheMyopiaarchetypes. (1) The first solution is to eliminate or weaken loop [R1] by activating an effective system of disincentivestodiminishtheshort-term,individualandlocaladvantagesanddecreasetheagent’s perceptionoftheconvenienceoftherecurrentbehaviour,therebyproducingthebalancingloop [B1]. Thedisincentivesmaytaketheformofsanctionsfortheagent’sbehaviourortheimposition ofcostsortaxesproportionateinsomewaytotheagent’sadvantages. (2) A second solution is to eliminate or weaken loop [R2] through the balancing loop [B2] by stimulatinganeffectivestreamofinformationthathighlights,inapersuasiveapproachproportional totheamountofshort-termadvantages,thenegativelong-rundisadvantagestheagent’scurrent behaviour may produce. The more relevant the agent’s advantages and disadvantages are, themoretheinformationmustbepersistentovertimeanddiffusedovervastterritories. (3) Athirdsolutionoperatesdirectlyontheagent’scurrentbehaviourthroughthebalancingloop [B3],introducingincentives(socialandeconomicbenefits,rewards,taxbreaks,etc.) topersuade the agent to decrease the intensity and frequency of his current behaviour and implement processesandtechnologiescapableofreducingthelong-termglobaldisadvantage. Sustainability 2018, 10, 21 7 of 23 It is natural to accept sacrifices more willingly for our family than for the collective. Local advantages or disadvantages from public works (pollution sites, dams, highways, nuclear power plants, etc.) prevail over the global advantages or disadvantages the public works will provide the larger collective or territory. “Not in my backyard” is the most common individual response to the community’s request to put up with the construction of public works for the advantage of the collective. 5. Three Strategies to Counter the Archetypes The “Short-Term, Local and Individual Myopia Archetype”, shown in Figure 2, clearly illustrates that in many cases of repetitive behaviour the rationality of short-term, local and individual behaviour is illusory and the apparent rational decisions of the single agents are irrational in the long run in a broader context and for the entire collective. The individual advantages prevail and as long as the archetype continues to operate, every agent behaves based on his own “individual” rationality and, without restriction and adequate information, fails to perceive a “global” rationality. Figure 2 reveals that in order to deal with the problem of sustainability in individual behaviour, not only in the economic area but the environmental and social ones as well, it is necessary to weaken the loops [R1] and [R2]. The model in Figure 3, derived from Figure 2, allows us to understand that Sustainability2018,10,21 8of24 there are only three possible actions (levers) to counter the Myopia archetypes. Discouragement, Information on the punishment, costs disadvantages of for current behavior the current behavior s s B1 Short-term, B2 o individual and local s advantages s o Perception of short- Perception of long- R1 R2 term, individual and term, collective and local advantages global disadvantages s s o Current Behavior o s Incentives, rewards, e d benefits to modify B3 ela y d the current behavior s Long-term, collective and global disadvantages FFigiguurere3 3..A Acctitoionnsst otow weeaakkeennt hthee“ “mmyyooppiaiaa arrcchheetytyppees”s”t hthaattm maakkeei titd difififfcicuultltt otop peercreceiviveet htheep prorobblelmemo off susustsataininaabbiliiltiyty[ b[basaesdedo onn:[: 3[43]4]( p(p..3 399)]).]. (1) The first solution is to eliminate or weaken loop [R1] by activating an effective system of ThethreeactionsthatproduceloopsB1,B2andB3donotnecessarilyhavetobeimplemented disincentives to diminish the short-term, individual and local advantages and decrease the atthesametimetocounterloopsR1andR2anddirectlyimpactCurrentBehaviour. Thechoiceof agent’s perception of the convenience of the recurrent behaviour, thereby producing the whichtousetocontroltheharmfuleffectsofthearchetypedependsonthetypeofbehaviourone balancing loop [B1]. The disincentives may take the form of sanctions for the agent’s behaviour wants/mustregulateandonthenatureoftheagentsthatproducesuchbehaviour. Inmanycases,the or the imposition of costs or taxes proportionate in some way to the agent’s advantages. repeatedbehaviourproducessuchgreatadvantagesfortheagentsthattoweakentheharmfuleffects thejointactionofallthreeleversisindispensable. ItisnecessarytostatethatthearchetypesinFigures1and2actatboththeleveloftheindividual and that of the collective, or population of similar agents, who, by producing similar short-term behaviour/effectsproducecumulativeeffectsthat,whensummed,leadtolong-termcollectiveand globaldisadvantagesforthecollectiveorthepopulationconsideredasawhole. Ifanindividualuses aplasticbag,heproducesgarbage;ifmillionsofindividualsbehaveinthesameway,pollutionofthe landandseaoccurs,whichisnotanticipatedbytheindividualagents. On 5 October 2017, a conference was held in Malta on “Our Ocean,” with the objective of gettinggovernmentsandfirmstomakemoreofacommitmenttopreservingtheseafromplasticand non-biodegradablerefuse. The very properties for which plastics are famed can also be considered their greatest flaw. Longevity,robustnessandabundancehasledtomarineplasticpollutionbeingdubbed“oneofthe most serious emerging threats to marine biodiversity”, according to the Convention on Biological Diversity. Thescaleandquantityofplasticproductionistrulystaggering—PlasticsEuropeestimates thatglobalplasticproductionnowexceeds280milliontonneseachyear. Theindustryitselfisworth overUS$1trillionaccordingtoexperts[35](online). AbandonedplasticbagshaveevenbeenfoundonthehighestpeaksoftheHimalayas. Sustainability2018,10,21 9of24 Wasteisanequallycomplexissuefurtherupthemountain,whereclimbersfrequentthesame fewroutestoattemptsafeascents—andwheretheyleavebehindtheirrefusetoavoidcarryingany extraweight. Plastics,tents,oxygentanksandeventhecorpsesofpastclimberslayscatteredonthe slope[36](online). Inordertobetterunderstandtheactionofthe“myopiaarchetypes”—bothatanindividualand collectivelevel—andtobecomeawareofthevariousformsofinterventionavailable,itisusefulto presentsomeemblematicsituations,whilealsorecognizingthattheserepresentonlyasmallpartof awiderangeofpossibilities. 6. MyopiaArchetypesDescribingIndividualandLocalBehaviour TounderstandthemodusoperandioftheMyopiaArchetypes,itisnecessarytopresentasthefirst casetheTemporalMyopiaarchetype,whichactsinallpartsoftheworldtodeterminethedestiniesof alargenumberofpeoplethatmakerecurringuseofsubstancesthatbringgreatimmediatebenefits whilealsoproducingirreversiblelong-termharm: thehardenedsmokerswho,togainthebenefitof nicotineintakecigaretteaftercigarette, yearafteryear, increasetheirchancesofseriouslong-term healthdamage(Figure4). In many countries, public health regulators have come up with two measures to combat thisarchetype: (1) activateloop[B1]todiscouragetheperceptionofabenefitfromsmoking(currentbehaviour) byinstitutingvariousbans,suchasprohibitingsmokinginmostenclosedpublicspaces,while driving, in offices, etc., with fines for transgressors and by gradually raising cigarette and cigarduties; (2) activating loop [B2], with information campaigns aimed not only at habitual smokers (“smokingkills”iswrittenoncigarettepacketsinmanypartsoftheworld)butalsoandmainly atpotentialsmokers: youthandschool-agechildren. If we also consider the effect of individual myopia, the immediate individual advantages clearlyproduceverysignificantcollectivedisadvantages: thegrowthinthenumberofpeoplewith smoke-related diseases leads to an increase in collective health costs, reduces individuals’ work capacityandleadstoburdensforfamilies. Thearchetypesthatregulatethebehaviourofsmokerscanbeappliedtomanyotherrecurrent behaviourssimilarinnature—immediatebenefitsandconsiderablefutureharm—suchasthehigh consumptionofalcoholicbeverages,drugsandstimulants(doping),sleepingpillsandantidepressants andotheraddictivesubstances. Suchrepetitivebehaviournotonlycauseslong-term,seriousharmto thehealthofindividualsbutalsoactsintheshorttermtointerfereintheirdrivingcapacityorcause themtoperceiveanalteredreality,etc. Atthecollectivelevel,thereclearlyisseriousdamagetosociety. Inthesesituations,itispossibletoactivateloop[B3](Figure4)toprovideincentivesforindividualsto entersupportgroupsand/orundergotreatmentforalcoholanddrugdependence. Theimmediate localadvantagescauseglobaldamageanddisadvantagesinsubsequentdecades,asdescribedinthe modelinFigure5. To stimulate economic development, some countries or areas within a country allow their businesses to use fossil fuels and processes that produce high levels of toxic gas emissions and polluting material. The local advantage is immediate: it allows these firms to win out over their competitorsandtogrow,allowingthecountry,orarea,todevelopintermsofemploymentandper capitaincome. Suchpermissivebehaviour,whenrepeatedovertheyears,produceslong-termdamage tothehealthofcitizensandtotheglobalenvironment. Sustainability2018,10,21 10of24 Sustainability 2018, 10, 21 9 of 23 Ban on smoking Information on the and increased cost damage caused by of cigarettes current behavior s s B1 Short-term individual B2 o pleasure from smoking s s o Perception of short- Perception of long- R1 R2 term individual term, collective pleasure damage s s o Repeated smoking o s und Ienrcgeon ttirveeast mtoe nt B3 d ela y e d for smoking s Long-term, individual (addiction) and social problems and disadvantages FigureF4ig.uTrhe e4“. mTyhoep “iamayrocphieat yaprechs”ettyhpaets”g utihdaet thgueibdeeh athvei obuerhoafvsiomuor koefr ssamnodkecrosn saunmd ecrosnosfuimnteorsx icoaf ting andnainrctooxtiiccastuinbgs atanndc neasr.cotic substances. Sustainability 2018, 10, 21 10 of 23 In many countries, public health regulators have come up with two measures to combat this archetype: Ban on use of polluting Information on the processes; taxes on damage from (1) activate loop [B1] to discoeumriasgseio tnhse p erception of a benefict ufrrormen stm boekhianvgio (rc urrent behaviour) by s s instituting various bans, such as prohibiting smoking in most enclosed public spaces, while driving, in offices, etc., with fines for transgressors and by gradually raising cigarette and cigar duties; B1 Local advantages B2 o from unlimited s (2) activating loop [B2], with informadtieovnel opcammenpta oifg cnosu natrimy ed not only at habitual smokers s o (“smoking kills” is written on cigarette packets in many parts of the world) but also and mainly at potential smokers: youth and school-age children. If we also consider theP eerfcfeepctti oon fo fi ndividual myopia, thPeer ciemptmioend oifa tloe nign-dividual advantages R1 R2 advantages from local, term, collective clearly produce very significant collective disadvantages: the growth in the number of people with low-cost development damage smoke-related diseases leads to an increase in collective health costs, reduces individuals’ work s capacity and leads to burdens for families. s o The archetypes that regulate the behaviour of smokers can be applied to many other recurrent behaviours similar in nature—immediate benefits and considerable future harm—such as the high Production with consumption of alcoholic beverages, druggsa s eamndis siosntism ulants (doping), sleeping pills and o antidepressants and other addictive substances. Such repetitive behaviour not only causes s ctlohleneaigrr- ltdye rriimsv psi,n erosIegrlneild ourccuiuateocipsnnue atgds ic g vaiphaetmryassor a omcetgoreme sc tmitoasso uoes tsdsshiooe ieafnc ytinshhe d ete y am.l t Ihtno B o tph3f ee i rnscede isivvitieud aaudtnaielo lasan lytsbee,u dr itet dais l rspeoao lasisctiytbs, leeint tc o.t h Aaect t sithvhoaetr ect o tlloelreomcpt i[vtBoe3 i]lne (vtFeeirglf,eu trrheee ir4ne) to provide incentives for individuals to enter support groups and/or undergo treatment for alcohol and drug dependence. The immedsia te Lloocnagl- atedrvma,n gtalogbeasl caanuds seo gclioalb al damage and disadvantages in problems and disadvantages subsequent decades, as described in the model in Figure 5. for the health of citizens and the global climate Figure 5. The “Short-Term and Local Myopia Archetype” that guides the local behaviour of areas Figure5. The“Short-TermandLocalMyopiaArchetype”thatguidesthelocalbehaviourofareas packed with industries, which, to produce at low costs, use materials and processes with high levels packedwithindustries,which,toproduceatlowcosts,usematerialsandprocesseswithhighlevels of pollution. ofpollution. To stimulate economic development, some countries or areas within a country allow their businesses to use fossil fuels and processes that produce high levels of toxic gas emissions and polluting material. The local advantage is immediate: it allows these firms to win out over their competitors and to grow, allowing the country, or area, to develop in terms of employment and per capita income. Such permissive behaviour, when repeated over the years, produces long-term damage to the health of citizens and to the global environment. 7. The Effects of the Myopia Archetypes on Population Dynamics The myopia archetypes act at the collective and global levels to guide the behaviour of individuals in a group or population viewed as a whole. As an example, consider the action of the Individual Myopia archetype, which guides the action of the average person who, instinctively, feels the need to reproduce, thereby gaining the immediate individual advantages of joy and pride from the birth of a child, advantages that reduce the perception of the global disadvantages and harm to the environment, society and the economy from non-sustainable overpopulation. It is important to note that “population” dynamics are not only triggered by the innate instinct to reproduce but are normally accentuated by the culture of society. Repetitive behaviour in the short term triggers an increase in population; in cases of abundant resources, this increase is an advantage for society. Once the resource constraints have been exceeded, there is the risk of overpopulation and non-sustainability for the environment, society and the economy, as shown in Figure 6.
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