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How Ireland Voted 2002 PDF

312 Pages·2003·22.923 MB·English
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How Ireland Voted 2002 This page intentionally left blank How Ireland Voted 2002 Editedby Michael Gallagher AssociateProfessor, DepartmentofPoliticalScience, TrinityCollege, UniversityofDublin Michael Marsh AssociateProfessor, DepartmentofPoliticalScience, TrinityCollege, UniversityofDublin and PaulMitchell LecturerinGovernment,LondonSchoolofEconomics, UK * EditorialMatterandSelection©MichaelGallagher, MichaelMarshandPaulMitchell2003 Chapters1-12andAppendices© Palgrave MacmillanLtd2003 Allrightsreserved. No reproduction, copyortransmissionofthis publicationmaybe madewithoutwrittenpermission. Noparagraphofthispublicationmaybe reproduced, copiedor transmittedsavewithwrittenpermissionorin accordancewith theprovisionsoftheCopyright, Designs andPatentsAct1988, or underthetermsofanylicencepermittinglimitedcopyingissued by theCopyrightLicensingAgency, 90TottenhamCourtRoad, LondonWIT4LP. Anypersonwhodoes anyunauthorisedact in relationto this publicationmaybe liable to criminalprosecutionandcivil claimsfor damages. The authorshaveassertedtheirrightto be identifiedastheauthors ofthisworkin accordancewiththeCopyright, Designs and PatentsAct1988. Firstpublished2003 by PALGRAVEMACMILLAN Houndmills, Basingstoke, HampshireRG216XSand 175 Fifth Avenue, NewYork,N.Y.10010 Companiesandrepresentativesthroughouttheworld PALGRAVEMACMILLANistheglobalacademicimprintofthe Palgrave MacmillandivisionofStMartin'sPressLLCandof Palgrave MacmillanLtd. Macmillan'"isaregisteredtrademarkin theUnitedStates, UnitedKingdomandothercountries. Palgrave isaregistered trademarkin theEuropeanUnionandothercountries. ISBN978-0-333-96835-2 ISBN978-0-230-37904-6(eBook) DOI 10.1057/9780230379046 This bookisprintedonpapersuitablefor recyclingand madefrom fully managedandsustainedforest sources. Acataloguerecordfor thisbookisavailable from theBritish Library. Acataloguerecordfor thisbookisavailable from theLibrary ofCongress. Transferredto digital printing2003 Contents Listofillustrations vii Listoftables ix Listoffigures xi Notesoncontributors xii ~~ ~ Glossaryandabbreviations xviii Illustrations xix 1. Thebackgroundto the election 1 GaryMurphy 2. Campaign strategies 21 Stephen Collins 3. Candidate selection: more democraticor morecentrally controlled? 37 YvonneGalligan 4. Thecandidates' perspective 57 SeanFleming, PaulBradford, Joan Burton,Fiona O'Malley, DanBoyle, Aengus6Snodaigh andLiamTwomey 5. Stabilityandturmoil: analysis of theresults 88 MichaelGallagher 6. What decidedthe election? 119 JohnGarry, FiachraKennedy, MichaelMarshandRichardSinnott 7. Voterturnoutin 2002andbeyond 143 PatLyonsandRichardSinnott 8. Whythe opinion pollsgotit wrongin 2002 159 GailMcElroyandMichaelMarsh 9. Themediaandthe campaign 177 HeinzBrandenburgandJacquelineHayden 10. The subterraneanelection of the Seanad 197 MichaelGallagherandLiam Weeks 11. Governmentformation in 2002: 'You canhave anykind of governmentaslongasit's FiannaFail' 214 PaulMitchell vi HowIreland Voted2002 12. The electionandthepartysystem 230 John Coakley Appendices 247 LiamWeeks Appendix1:Resultsofthegeneralelection 247 Appendix2: Members ofthe29th Dail 251 Appendix3: Thegovernmentandministersofstate 258 Appendix4: Theelectoralsystem 260 Appendix5: Regulationofcampaign spending 262 Appendix6: Electronicvoting 265 Index 268 List of Illustrations (Exceptwhereitisindicatedotherwiseallpicturesarereproducedbycourtesy of theIrishIndependent.) Fine Gael leaderMichaelNoonan at the launchof his party's electionmanifesto; Green PartyleaderTrevorSargentlaunches his party'smanifesto xix Fine Gael leaderMichaelNoonanin MullingarHospital, 29 April; theTaoiseach campaigningin Virginia, Co. Cavan, 3May xx Fine Gael leaderMichaelNoonangets apie in theface in Boyle, Co. Roscommon, 1May; LabourPartyleaderRuairi Quinn speakingnextto astature ofJames Connolly, 30 April xxi ProgressiveDemocratleaderMaryHarneyand candidate Tom Parlonin Ballycommon, Co. Offaly (Marc O'Sullivan, CollinsAgency); Green Partypress conferencein WicklowSt, Dublin xxii Fine Gael deputyleaderJimMitchell canvassingaconstituentin Phibsboro, 3May; theTaoiseach Bertie Ahern enjoys acup of tea, 12May; oneof theMayo Fine Gael candidates, MichaelRing, at amartin Westport, Co. Mayo, 6May xxiii FiannaFailcandidatein DublinNorth-Central, DeirdreHeney puttingup herpersonal posters; apartyworkertakingdown the personal posters of Ivor Callely, anotherFiannaFailcandidate in DublinNorth-Central; aCallelyposterupside down (editors); an electronicposterfor MildredFox, Independentcandidate in Wicklow, 13May xxiv Thefront pageof theIrishIndependent, 9May xxv Part of theballotpaperfor Wicklowshowingcandidatephotos andpartylogos xxvi Ministerfor the EnvironmentNoel Dempseywith oneof the newelectronicvotingmachines; Presidingofficers waitingfor voters onClare Islandwith atraditionalballotbox xxvii An enclosedorderof nnsvotingin DublinCentral; ballotboxes beingopenedat the Dublin countcentre (PressAssociation) xxviii vii viii HowIrelandVoted2002 Dr Liam Twomey(Independent) celebrateshis victory; Progressive DemocratleaderMaryHarveycollectsherwinnings, havingbet herpartywouldwin 8seats, 21 May; Sean Crowe (Sinn Fein) celebrateshis victory(PressAssociation) xxix The results are declaredafterthe quickelectroniccountin DublinNorth; Fine Gael's EndaKennycelebrateshis victory xxx ChiefWhip Seamus Brennan (FiannaFail)waitsfor thefirst countfigures; Labour'sJoan Burtoncelebratesregainingher seat xxxi CharlieO'Connor(FiannaFail)withhis granddaughterat the count; newPDTDFionaO'Malleyiscongratulatedby herfather DesO'Malley, theparty'sfounder xxxii FormerLabourPartyleaderDick Springloses his seat in KerryNorth (PressAssociation); thefuture LabourPartyleader Pat Rabbitteretains his seat in DublinSouth-West; Olwyn Enright, anewFine Gael TDat the count centrein Portlaoise xxxiii PresidentMaryMcAleese withMaryHarneyandBertie Ahern, 6June; EndaKennyafterbeingelectedFine Gael leaderin successionto MichaelNoonan xxxiv The newgovernment xxxv List of Tables 1.1 Annual averageGDPgrowth 1996-2000(%) 5 1.2 Annual averageunemploymentandinflationrates 1997-2002(%) 6 3.1 Partycandidatesand office-holding2002 41 3.2 Women candidates 1997 and 2002 50 5.1 Fate of candidatesat 2002election 90 5.2 Partypercentagesofthevotein 2002by province, with changesfrom 1997 92 5.3 Parties'bestandworstperformancesin 2002, relative to 1997 93 5.4 Partyseats in 2002, by province, with changesfrom 1997 94 5.5 Fine Gael's performancein 1948, November 1982, and 2002 95 5.6 Transferpatterns at 2002 elections (%) 106 5.7 Constituencieswhere transfers affectedthe outcome 107 5.8 Ratio of parties' 2002performancesto 1997 performances 111 5.9 Occupationsof deputies in the 29th Dail, by party(%) 115 6.1 The parties' 1997 voters: defectors in 2002 124 6.2 The parties' 2002voters: newrecruits 125 6.3 Issues citedasimportant for vote 126 6.4 Changein issues mentionedasinfluencingvotebetween the 1997 and 2002general elections (%) 127 6.5 Perceptionsof livingstandards and qualityof life over precedingfive years 128 6.6 BestTaoiseach, trustworthiness andsatisfactionratings (%) 129 6.7 Partypreferences ofvarious social groups (%) 131 6.8 FiannaFail,Fine Gael andLabourvotersin different social classes 1969-2002(%) 132 6.9 Partypreferencesby issue concerns andperformance evaluations (%) 133 6.10 Partypreferencesby preferencefor Taoiseachand government (%) 135 6.11 Effectofvariousfactors onvotechoice, multivariatelogit regression 136 6.12 Simulations showingchangein partyvoteundervarious assumptions 138 7.1 Reasons for abstentionin the 2002general election (%) 150 7.2 Breakdownof participation/abstentionby socio-demographic andpoliticalvariables (%) 151 7.3 Individual-levelanalysis offactors affectingvoter turnoutin the 1997 general election 154 ix

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