How Allied and US Strategy in Yemen Contributes to AQAP's Survival

154 Pages·2017·1.36 MB·English

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Yemeni soldiers are pictured on the frontline of fighting with the Houthis li
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In this monograph, Dr. Norman Cigar provides Special Opera- .S
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tions Forces (SOF) commanders and planners with an overview of
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Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula’s (AQAP) operational frame- t
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work and presence in the area. He analyzes the strategic and g
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operational issues that confront policymakers in responding to in
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the threat posed by AQAP within Yemen’s challenging social, e
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political, and physical environment. This monograph presents the e
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far-reaching implications for SOF, from recognizing the nuances C
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of Yemen’s tribal-based human terrain to understanding key rela- n
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tionships, rivalries, and competition between AQAP and other ri
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Yemeni players. AQAP will likely continue to represent a threat u
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to U.S. interests and regional stability for the foreseeable future. s
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Norman Cigar
JSOU Report 18-4
ISBN 978-1-941715-30-7
Joint Special Operations University
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The Enemy is Us:
How Allied and U.S. Strategy
in Yemen Contributes to
AQAP’s Survival
Norman Cigar
JSOU Report 18 -4
The JSOU Press
MacDill Air Force Base, Florida
2018
Comments about this publication are invited and should be forwarded to
the Director of the Center for Strategic Studies, Joint Special Operations
University, 7701 Tampa Point Blvd., MacDill AFB, FL 33621.
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Printed in June 2018.

ISBN 978-1-941715-30-7
The views expressed in this publication are entirely those of the
author and do not necessarily reflect the views, policy, or position
of the United States Government, Department of Defense, United
States Special Operations Command, or the Joint Special Operations
University.
Authors are granted academic freedom provided their work does not
disclose classified information, jeopardize operations security, or
misrepresent official U.S. policy. Such academic freedom empowers
authors to offer new and sometimes controversial perspectives in the
interest of furthering debate on key issues.
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On the cover. A close up of a world map emphasizes Yemen. PHOTO BY WOL-
LERTZ/STUTTERSTOCK.COM
Back cover. Yemeni soldiers are pictured on the frontline of fighting with the Houthis
near Sana’a, Yemen, on 27 January 2018. PHOTO BY REUTERS/NEWSCOM
Contents
From the Director ........................................................................vii
Foreword ......................................................................................ix
About the Author ...........................................................................xi
Acknowledgements .....................................................................xiii
Chapter 1. Navigating Tribal Waves: The Political
Foundations of AQAP’s Military Strategy in Yemen .........................1
Chapter 2. Tribes in Yemen: The Undercurrents of
Politics and Conflict ......................................................................9
Chapter 3. Safe Harbor: AQAP’s Objectives in Yemen’s
Most Recent Round of Conflict ....................................................27
Chapter 4. Charting the Coalition Course ....................................47
Chapter 5. The Way Forward ........................................................61
Chapter 6. Conclusion .................................................................77
Appendix: Yemeni Media Guide .................................................83
Endnotes ......................................................................................87
v

From the Director
W
e are pleased to publish this research from Dr. Norman Cigar, a
research fellow at the Marine Corps University in Quantico, Vir-
ginia. His examination of Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) high-
lights one important facet of a complicated counterterrorism setting. Indeed,
his nautical-themed headings remind the reader of the fluid and complex
operating environment that involves a terrorist threat immersed in a civil
war, a dramatic humanitarian crisis, and a contest for regional influence.
Planners and others who must address operational and strategic choices can
use this text and related JSOU Press publications to gain appreciation for
how this particular threat manages to retain some freedom of maneuver by
playing off local government, national (Yemeni) policy and forces, ISIS, tribal
allegiances, rebel groups, Iranian influences, and an Arab coalition led by
Saudi Arabia. As Dr. Cigar says, victory in this case may not mean AQAP’s
elimination but containment and management once the organization has
been degraded to an irreducible minimum. As always, we welcome com-
ments from readers as well as recommendations for future monograph topics.
Francis X. Reidy
Interim Director, Center for Strategic Studies
vii