Household and Living Arrangement Projections: The Extended Cohort-Component Method and Applications to the U.S. and China

376 Pages·2014·6.77 MB·English

by  Yi Zeng, Kenneth C. Land, Danan Gu, Zhenglian Wang (auth.)

The Springer Series on Demographic Methods
and Population Analysis 36
Yi Zeng · Kenneth C. Land
Danan Gu · Zhenglian Wang
Household
and Living
Arrangement
Projections
The Extended Cohort-Component
Method and Applications to the
U.S. and China
Household and Living Arrangement Projections
THE SPRINGER SERIES ON
DEMOGRAPHIC METHODS AND
POPULATION ANALYSIS
Series Editor
KENNETH C. LAND
Duke University
In recent decades, there has been a rapid development of demographic models and methods
and an explosive growth in the range of applications of population analysis. This series
seeks to provide a publication outlet both for high-quality textual and expository books on
modern techniques of demographic analysis and for works that present exemplary
applications of such techniques to various aspects of population analysis.
Topics appropriate for the series include:
• General demographic methods
• Techniques of standardization
• Life table models and methods
• Multistate and multiregional life tables, analyses and projections
• Demographic aspects of biostatistics and epidemiology
• Stable population theory and its extensions
• Methods of indirect estimation
• Stochastic population models
• Event history analysis, duration analysis, and hazard regression models
• Demographic projection methods and population forecasts
• Techniques of applied demographic analysis, regional and local population estimates and
projections
• Methods of estimation and projection for business and health care applications
• Methods and estimates for unique populations such as schools and students
Volumes in the series are of interest to researchers, professionals, and students in
demography, sociology, economics, statistics, geography and regional science, public health
and health care management, epidemiology, biostatistics, actuarial science, business, and
related fields.
For further volumes:
http://www.springer.com/series/6449
Yi Zeng • Kenneth C. Land • Danan Gu
Zhenglian Wang
Household and Living
Arrangement Projections
The Extended Cohort-Component Method
and Applications to the U.S. and China
Yi Zeng Kenneth C. Land
Center for Study of Aging and Human Department of Sociology and
Development Medical School Center for Population Health and Aging
Duke University Population Research Institute
Durham, NC, USA Duke University
Durham, NC, USA
National School of Development
Center for Healthy Aging and
Zhenglian Wang
Development Studies
Center for Population Health and Aging
Peking University
Population Research Institute
Beijing, China
Duke University
Durham, NC, USA
Danan Gu
Population Division Household and Consumption Forecasting, Inc.
United Nations Chapel Hill, NC, USA
New York, NY, USA
ISSN 1389-6784
ISBN 978-90-481-8905-2 ISBN 978-90-481-8906-9 (eBook)
DOI 10.1007/978-90-481-8906-9
Springer Dordrecht Heidelberg New York London
Library of Congress Control Number: 2013954374
© Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014
This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved by the Publisher, whether the whole or part
of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations,
recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or
information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar
methodology now known or hereafter developed. Exempted from this legal reservation are brief excerpts
in connection with reviews or scholarly analysis or material supplied specifically for the purpose of being
entered and executed on a computer system, for exclusive use by the purchaser of the work. Duplication
of this publication or parts thereof is permitted only under the provisions of the Copyright Law of the
Publisher’s location, in its current version, and permission for use must always be obtained from
Springer. Permissions for use may be obtained through RightsLink at the Copyright Clearance Center.
Violations are liable to prosecution under the respective Copyright Law.
The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this
publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt
from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use.
While the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of
publication, neither the authors nor the editors nor the publisher can accept any legal responsibility for
any errors or omissions that may be made. The publisher makes no warranty, express or implied, with
respect to the material contained herein.
Printed on acid-free paper
Springer is part of Springer Science+Business Media (www.springer.com)
Preface
This book presents an innovative demographic toolkit known as the ProFamy
extended cohort-component method for the projection of household structures
and living arrangements with empirical applications to the United States, the largest
developed country, and China, the largest developing country. The ProFamy
method uses demographic rates as inputs to project detailed distributions of house-
hold types and sizes, living arrangements of all household members, and population
by age, sex, race/ethnicity, and urban/rural residence at national, sub-national, or
small area levels. It can also project elderly care needs and costs, pension deficits,
and household consumption. The book consists of four parts. The first part presents
the methodology, data, estimation issues, and empirical assessments. The next two
parts present applications in the United States (Part II) and China (Part III),
concerning demographic, social, economic, and business research; policy analysis,
including forecasting future trends of household type/size, elderly living
arrangements, disability, and home-based care costs; and household consumptions,
including housing and vehicles. The fourth part includes a user’s guide for the
ProFamy software to project households, living arrangements, and home-based
consumptions.
The very initial idea of the research presented in this book began when I was a
Ph.D. student at Brussels Free University and attended the International Union for
Scientific Studies of Population (IUSSP) 1983 family demography seminar. At that
seminar, I was especially interested in a paper presented by Professor John
Bongaarts on “The projection of family composition over the life course with the
family status life table.” With strong support from my supervisors, Professors Frans
Willekens and Ron Lesthaeghe, and stimulated by Professor John Bongaarts’ initial
nuclear family status life table model, I conducted my Ph.D. thesis research at the
Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI) in 1984–1986 to
develop a general family status life table model including both nuclear and three-
generation families, with an empirical application to China. During my study at
NIDI, I learned a great deal of multistate demography from Professor Frans
Willeken, who not only supervised my Ph.D study but also helped my long-term
professional career development including work on this book. As a Frank Notestein
v
vi Preface
Post-doctoral Fellow in 1986–1987, I further studied this demographic topic at the
Office of Population Research at Princeton University, under the supervision of
Professors Ansley Coale and Jane Menken. My research at Brussels Free Univer-
sity, NIDI, and Princeton University enabled me to win the Population Association
of America 1987 Dorothy Thomas Award, and my paper on “Changes in Family
Structure in China: A Simulation Study” was published in Population and Devel-
opment Review (Zeng 1986). I greatly appreciate what I learned from Professors
Willekens, Lesthaeghe, Coale, Menken, and Bongaarts during my Ph.D. and post-
doctoral studies, knowledge which led to the new research reported in this book.
After I became a faculty member at the Institute of Population Research at
Peking University in August 1987, I continued my research in family demography
and tried to expand it to healthy aging and population policy analysis. I particularly
enjoyed and learned a lot from long-term productive collaborations with Professor
James Vaupel, who I first got to know and started to collaborate with at the
International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis in 1985, a summer young
scientists’ program which was supervised by Professors Nancy Keyfitz and James
Vaupel. Among many collaborative research projects and co-authored peer-
reviewed published papers with James since 1985, our joint articles (Zeng, Vaupel,
and Wang 1997, 1998) are most relevant to this book. In our 1997–1998 papers, we
initially developed the household and living arrangement projection model known
as ProFamy, which includes two sexes and time-varying demographic rates as
input, and applied it to China, based on the one-sex family status life table models
(with constant demographic rates) of Bongaarts (1987) and Zeng (1986) mentioned
above. In a 1992 interview entitled “Talk to Demographer: Chinese demography
starts to go to the world” published in the journal Population by Fudan University in
Shanghai, I told the interviewer who was one of the journal’s editors: “I learned a
lot from my collaborator James Vaupel; his mind is like a computer. When I visit
him every year, we start to discuss research immediately after saying hello and
shaking hands. Sometimes he would be driving but continuing to talk with me about
the mathematical demographic formulas and computer programs of our joint papers
(which was one of the prior research bases of this book), and I had to remind him to
be careful to avoid a car accident. I am sure that many Chinese people were deeply
impressed from Professor James Vaupel’s style of scientific research by reading this
published interview report.
Since late 1998, I have been a faculty member at Duke University, while I keep
my faculty position at Peking University and divide my work time between these
two universities across the ocean. Professor Ken Land, who is the second author of
this book, picked me up at the airport when I first came to Duke, an occasion that I
will remember for life. Since then we began to frequently discuss our work and
closely collaborate on research. Our joint work includes substantially extending
and developing the ProFamy extended cohort-component model, software, and
applications to the United States and China. Ken’s extremely broad mind and
strong mathematical, statistical, and demographic skills have helped me a lot. For
example, he innovatively developed and summarized the basic procedures of the
ProFamy model into four “core ideas” (refer to Sect. 2.2 of Chap. 2 of this book),
Preface vii
which are remarkably helpful for readers to easily understand the relatively com-
plicated structure of the new method. He presented these four “core ideas” at the
American Statistical Association 2006 Annual Meeting, a presentation that was
well received by statistical and demographic colleagues at the meeting. During the
rather long period of preparing the manuscript of this book, Ken repeatedly
reminded me that “We need to take our time to work this manuscript over and
over again, so that it is a product of the high quality that we want.” Clearly, Ken’s
solid scientific research style and knowledge significantly contributed to the merit
of this book.
I am of course very grateful for the outstanding contributions of the other two
co-authors of this book, Dr. Danan Gu and Dr. Zhenglian Wang; this book would
never have been produced without their hard work and close collaborations. We
would like to sincerely thank Dr. Jessica Sautter, who very carefully edited,
questioned, and commented on the entire manuscript to help us to significantly
improve the quality of this book. We also would like to thank the supports from
Duke University, Peking University, and the Max Plank Institute for Demographic
Research, and our colleagues at these institutions listed in the Acknowledgments.
Professor of Duke University and Yi Zeng
Peking University
Acknowledgments
The research reported in this book was mainly supported by NIA/NIH SBIR Phase I
and Phase II project grants, which received the best possible evaluation score
(zero percentile rank), and China National Natural Science Foundation grants
(71110107025 and 71233001). We also thank the Population Division of
U.S. Census Bureau, NIA (grant 1R03AG18647-1A1), NICHD (grant 5 R01
HD41042-03), Duke University, Peking University, and the Max Planck Institute
for Demographic Research for supporting related basic and applied research.
We sincerely thank our colleagues who contributed to our previous collaborative
research or supported our research related to this book, including the following
researchers (listed alphabetically): John Bongaarts, H. Booth, O’Neil C. Brain,
Shuai Cao, Huaming Chai, Huashuai Chen, Lingguo Cheng, Simon Choi, Ansley
Coale, Harvey J. Cohen, Ted Chu, Paul Demeny, Zhiheng Ding, Qiushi Feng,
Changqing Gan, Ning Gao, Linda K. George, Daniel Goodkind, Todd Graham,
Zhigang Guo, Helin Huang, Angang Hu, Nicole Keilman, Nancy Keyfitz, Cheng
Jiang, Leiwen Jiang, Weiping Jiang, Ron Lee, Ron Lesthaeghe, Chunhua Li, Faju
Li, Jianxin Li, Lan Li, Ling Li, Qiang Li, Shuang Liang, Zhiwu Liang, Nan Lin,
Justin Yifu Lin, Yuzhi Liu, Jiehua Lu, Wolfgang Lutz, Andrew Mason, Jane
Menken, Philip S. Morgan, Jessie Norris, Diane Parham, Xiezhi Peng, Alexia
Prskawetz, Jessica Sautter, Melania Sereny, Ke Shen, Weiheng Shi, Wenzhao
Shi, Stanley K. Smith, Eric Stallard, Paul Shultz, Becky Tesh, Feng Wang, James
W. Vaupel, Frans Willekens, John Wilmoth, Deqing Wu, Qiong Wu, Zhenyu Xiao,
Yu Xie, Changli Yang, Anatoli Yashin, Xuejun Yu, Chunyuan Zhang, Zhen Zhang,
Zhongwei Zhao, Zhenzhen Zheng, Zhiheng Ding, Liquan Zhou, Yun Zhou, and
Hania Zlotnik. Thanks also go to many scholars who participated in the software
usability tests and provided helpful comments to make ProFamy software a user-
friendly package.
Note that most of the contents of this book are based on our updated, extended,
and improved previous research related to the ProFamy extended cohort-
component method and its applications to the United States and China, published
since 1997 in Demography, Population and Development Review, Population
Research and Policy Review, Demographic Research, Journal of Aging and Health,
ix