High-Threat Decisions: When It’s a Matter of Life and Death

169 Pages·2022·1.471 MB·English

by  Stuart Meyers

Stuart A. Meyers
High-Threat
Decisions
When It’s a Matter of Life and Death
High-Threat Decisions
Stuart A. Meyers
High-Threat Decisions
When It’s a Matter of Life and Death
Stuart A. Meyers
OpTac International, Inc
Gainesville, VA, USA
ISBN 978-3-031-19332-3 ISBN 978-3-031-19333-0 (eBook)
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-19333-0
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To those who have given their lives to
save lives.
Book Overview
Making sound decisions in any high-threat domain is an individual, organizational,
and social responsibility. Tactical and incident commanders are routinely required
to make decisions in high-threat law enforcement situations that can result in suc-
cessful or catastrophic outcomes. The qualitative study contained in this book offers
more evidence—as an integral part of emerging research on education and reaching
effective decisions to the current literature—by extending and detailing the decision-
making process of commanders that occurs during a high-threat incident. It describes
the experience and methods of making decisions in this and other high-threat envi-
ronments. Furthermore, areas addressed by this research include learning strategies
that could better prepare commanders and organizational leaders in the processing
of information, while optimizing speed and accuracy in decision-making. It pro-
vides insight into answering the existential questions: How do people learn and
what is experience? Particular attention was paid to the role of adaptive expertise in
decision-making and understanding how mental models of recurring patterns neces-
sary for effective situational assessments are created and subsequently retrieved.
The purpose of this in-depth study was to explore through interviews, a survey,
and focus groups how experienced tactical and incident commanders describe mak-
ing decisions, and the factors impacting these decisions during events involving
hostage rescue, armed barricaded suspects, and armed suicidal individuals.
Participants described the necessity of having to adjust their decision-making pro-
cess frequently in a high-threat situation. This process includes asking strategic
questions to obtain actionable intelligence when information is not readily pro-
vided. Principal factors enabling participants to make sound decisions are good
intelligence, accurate situational assessments through pattern recognition, predic-
tive analytics, and having sufficient resources. Additionally, new replicable high-
threat decision-making and critical incident pattern recognition models are
presented.
vii
Acknowledgments
I want to thank Professor Lyle Yorks who provided expert guidance throughout the
research process and the study’s participants—all of whom graciously shared their
time in the pursuit of knowledge. Additionally, Anna Goodlett, Springer’s Editor for
Criminology and Forensic Psychology, reviewed and approved the manuscript for
publication. My life and learning partner, Dellanira Meyers, who for decades has
shared her knowledge and pushed me to become a Doctor of Education, along with
Joe and Brian Meyers—Thank you for being so amazing!
Lifelong learning takes a lifetime. Stuart A. Meyers
ix
Contents
1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
Context . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
Research Problem . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
Research Purpose . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
Research Questions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
Research Design Overview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
Study Rationale and Significance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
Study Assumptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
Definitions of Key Terminology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
2 Literature Review Topic One: Decision-Making . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
Decision-Making Introduction and Rationale for Topics . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
Applied Theoretical Decision-Making . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
Decision-Making in High-Threat Training Simulations . . . . . . . . . . . 17
Decision-Making in High-Threat Real-Life Situations . . . . . . . . . . . 23
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
3 Literature Review Topic Two: Adult Learning Theory . . . . . . . . . . . 33
Adult Learning Theory and Theorists Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
Self-Directed Learning, Transformative Learning, and Learning
from Experience . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
Learning Strategies and Cognition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40
Summary and Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48
4 Research Methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51
Introduction and Overview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51
Rationale for Qualitative Methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51
Research Design Overview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52
Discussion of Sample . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53
Data Collection Methods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53
xi
xii Contents
Interviews . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54
Survey . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55
Focus Groups . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55
Data Analysis and Synthesis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56
Protection of Human Subjects and Other Ethical Considerations . . . . . 57
Issues of Trustworthiness . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58
Credibility . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58
Transferability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59
Dependability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59
Confirmability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60
Study Limitations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60
Conceptual Framework . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61
Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64
5 Findings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65
Participant Description . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65
Summary of the Findings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67
Sub-finding 1.1: Safety of Involved and Potentially
Involved People . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68
Sub-finding 1.2: Current and Potential Threat Levels
for Most Likely and Worst-Case Incident Outcomes . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69
Sub-finding 1.3: Situational Assessments and Planning . . . . . . . . . . . 70
Sub-finding 1.4: Emotional Control . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71
Sub-finding 2.1: Questions—Safety of Involved
and Potentially Involved People . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72
Sub-finding 2.2: Questions—Current and Potential
Threat Levels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73
Sub-finding 2.3: Questions—Who, What, When,
Why, and How for a Given Situation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73
Sub-finding 2.4: Questions—Determining an Opportune
Moment in Time for Taking Decisive Action . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74
Sub-finding 3.1: Intelligence/Information . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75
Sub-finding 3.2: Experience . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76
Sub-finding 3.3: Communication . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77
Sub-finding 3.4: Resources . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78
Sub-finding 4.1: Experience—Tactical Team . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79
Sub-finding 4.2: Mentoring—Previous Commanders . . . . . . . . . . . . 80
Sub-finding 4.3: Training—Wide-Ranging and Continual . . . . . . . . . 81
Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82
6 Analysis and Discussion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83
Analytical Categories . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83
Analysis and Discussion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84
Analysis and Discussion of Finding 1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85
Analysis and Discussion of Finding 2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90
Contents xiii
Analysis and Discussion of Finding 3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93
Analysis and Discussion of Finding 4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96
Decision-Making Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104
Basis for Decision-Making . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105
Decision-Making Process . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105
Planning . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106
Planning Process Adjustments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 108
7 Predictive Analytics High-Threat Decision- Making
Model and Pattern Recognition Model for Critical
Incident Decision-Making . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111
New High-Threat Decision-Making Model Testing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111
Predictive Analytics High-Threat Decision-Making Model . . . . . . . . . . 113
Pattern Recognition Model for Critical Incident Decision-Making . . . . 114
Conclusion and Application . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 122
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 124
8 Conclusions and Recommendations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 125
Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 125
Recommendations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129
Research Recommendations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129
Practice Recommendations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131
Re-examining Study Assumptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131
Final Reflections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 133
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 134
Appendices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 135
Index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 157