High-tech society: the story of the information technology revolution

319 Pages·1987·21.152 MB·English

by  Tom Forester

High-Tech Society
CopyrigMhatteedr ial
By thes amea uthor
The LabouPra rtya nd the WorkiCnlga s(s1 976)
TheM icroelecRtervonoilcust (ieodn(. 1)9 80)
TheI nformatTieocnh nolRoegyv olut(ieond (.1)9 85)
TheM ateriRaelvso lut(ieod(n. )1 988)
CopyrigMhatteedr ial
High-TeScohc iety
TheS toroyft he
InformaTteicohnn oloRgeyv olunt io
TOM FORESTER
TheM IT Press
CambridMgaes,s achusetts
CopyrigMhatteedr ial
In memooryf M um
ThirdP rint1i9n9g0.
FirstMIT Press paperbaedictki on1,9 88
FirstMI T Presse ditio1n9,8 7
© 198T7o mF orester
Cartoons byD avidA ustcionp yrig©h Bta sBillac kwelLlt d1 987
Publishedin GreaBtr itaibnyB asiBll ackweLllt d
Allrigh ts reserved. Nopart ofthi s publicatiomany be reproduciednan yf ormb y
anye lectronoirmc ec hanicmalean s (inclupdhinogt ocopyinrgeco,r ding,
ori nformatiosnt oragea ndre trieval)wi thuotpe rmissiionwrin ting from the
publisher.
Pritneaddn b ouinnthd e U nitSetdao tfAe mse ribcyaM apVlaei-Iln,c .
Libraryo fCo ngressC ataloging-in-PublicatiDoanta
ForesteTro,m .
High-Tech society.
Bibliograpph.y :
Incluidnedse x.
1.Com putersan d civilization. 2.C omputers.
1.Ti tle
QA76.9.FC6666 19873 03.4'83846 -27499
ISBN0 -262-061(0h7b-4)
ISBN0 -262604-4-55 (pb)
CopyrighMtaetde rial
Contents
Prefaancde A cknowledgments vii
1 Introduction 1
TheH igh-TeRcevho luti-oHni gh-eTchF ever
2 TheC omputeRre volution 17
Beginni-ngHsow Chipasre M ade:t he" Lawso"f
MicroelectrNoewn iTcysp eosf C hip- New Wayso Mfa king
-
Chip-sS uprecomput-eTrhes Fifth-GenePrraotjie-ocTnto ward
ArtificiIanlt elli(gAel)n ce
3 SilicoVna lleHyo:m eo fH igh-TeMcahn 50
OriginsS ecreotsfS ucce-sSse micondIuncdtuosrTt ryr en-ds
-
TheJ apaneCshei pC hallen-gPe robilemnPs a radi-sHee re
ComeHsi gh-TeMcahn
4 TheT elecommunications Explosion 81
GoinDgi gi-talDeregulatainodAn f terT heG loMbaarkle ting
-
Battl-eF iberO pti-csC ableTV - SatelCloimtmeu nica-tions
DBS CelluRlaadri -oN ew NetworkS erviceEsl:e ctronic
-
MailV,i deoconfereVnidceiontegx
-
5 PersonCaolm puting 131
PersonCaolm put-erTsh eP ersonCaolm putBeoro m- The
SoftwarRee volutiToank ing ComHpoumtee- rCso nsumer
-
ElectrontihceVs id:e oA ge- WorkiFnrgo mH ome:t heE lectronic
CottagCeo mputienrts h eC lassroom
-
CopyrigMhatteedri al
vi Contents
6 Factoroifte hse F uture 170
HereC ometsh Aeu tomaFtaicct o-ryT heR obotHsa ve
Arrive-d Computer-AideDde signa ndM anufactu-rFilnegx ible
ManufactuSriynsgt em-sJ apanP'rso ductCihvailltyen gteo
Americaa ndE urope- Factory AutomatioVni:s iaonnd R eality
7 TheE lectroOnffiicce 195
Now It'tsh eO fficeo ft hFeu tu-reC onvergteT nechnol-ogies
Dreamasn dR ealit-iSelsow Progrewsist Phr oduct-ivTihtye
ChanginPga ttern ofO fficeW or-k The AutomateOdffi ce:P rison
orP aradise?
8 Micranods M oney 218
Keepingt heC ustomer Satis-fieEdl ectrBoannikci nFga:s t
Buck-sF inancIinaflo rmatGiooensO n-Li-neP aying with
Plast-iTch eR etaRievlo luti-oHno me Bankinagn dS hopping
9 KeyP roblfeomHrsi gh-TSeocchie ty 241
High-TeScmho,k estaorc Skesrvi cesWh:er e Willt hJeo bsC ome
From-? What Kindo fW ork-?M anagiTnegc hnological
ChangWei:ll L aboBre L eftO uti nt he Cold-?H igh-Tech
Crime: AreH ackesHr eroe-sT?h eT hretaotP rivacy
10 Conclusion 273
America att heC rossr-oaWdhsa tW ilJla paDno Next-?
CanE uropeC athc pU?
SelecFteudr tRheeard ing 290
Index/Glossary 297
CopyrighMtaetde rial
Prefaacned A cknowledgments
Evers inceI firstg oti nteresitnet dh ec omputerre volutainodni ts
implicatifoonrss o cieIty',v bee enw aitingf orth e "definitivbeo"o ko n
the subjetcota ppeaIrt.n evedird -sofin allyId ecidteodtry and write
itm yself.
Id oubwth etherI h avseu cceediendd;e eIdw ,o ndeifr a nyonwei liln
thisf ast-chanfigienlgdB .u tI think I havep roducead u sefufla,i rly
concisumsme ary ofth e informatitoenc hnolsotgyo rys of arw,h icphi cks
outt hee ssentpioali nthsa,p peninangds trendfsr omth e wealtohf
materiaavla ilaanbdl hei ghligthhtes most impsotrtuadnitbe oso,k s and
reports whhiacvheb eenp roduced.
Threek eyo bjectiwveerse t o makeH igh-TeScohc iertye adable,
comprehenasnidvb ea lanciendi tasp proacIhh .a vet riedt om ake the
subjeicntt eresatinngd a ccesstiobal lleb yt ackliintcg h ronologiicna lly
thef ormo fv ariosuusb -ploIht asv;et rietdom akei ti nformat-ievve ery
acronyomr c omputteerr mw hicchr opusp isd efineadn de xplai-ned
withouatl lowinigtt ob ecomae d ry,d idacttiecx tboaonkd;I h avet ried
tos teear mi ddle coursbee tweenth e wide-eyeendt husioafsth me high­
techP ollyannanads the doom-ladpeens simiosfm thec omputer
Cassand-raast th e samet imee schewithneg exaggerahtyepdea nd
"revelatbiyor ne -Iabelincgh"a racteorfiss otmiecw riteirnst hefi eld.
Thisb ooki sa populaorv erviaenwd a ss uchd rawso n secondary
sourceIs .h aveu sedm ateriaallr eadpyu blishiend n ewspapers,
magazinaensd j ournalssu cha sB usineWsese kF,ort une (includintgh e
InternatDiaotnaaCl o rporatiWohni'tseP apertso M anagemenHti)g,h
TechnolToegyc,h noloRgyev iew andt heF inancTiiamlse a ndT heS unday
Timeosf L ondonI.n a dditioIn w,o uldl iket oa cknowleddgeeb ttso
ScienceS,c ientiAficm erican,N ew ScientFiUsTtU,R ES, Omega, the
HarvaBrusidne sRsev iew and theS loanM anaemeng t Review. I'm
CopyrigMhatteedr ial
viiPir efaacned A cknowledgments
particuglraartleytf ouMi lc haeMla rienF'ust uSruerv ey,p ublisbhyet dh e
WorldF uturSeo ciewtyh,i cihs a ni nvaluasbelrvei ce.
FinalIlyw ,o uldl ikteo a cknowleand geen ormoudse btt om y wife
Deliaan dc hildrFerna nceJsa,c akn dH eathewrh,o p utu pw iths om uch
whilthee bookw asb einwgr itten.
Tom Forester
BrightonD,e cember1 986
CopyrigMhatteedr ial
1 Introduction
TheH igh-Tech Revo-lHuitgiho-nT ech Fever
The High-RTeevcohl ution
Then atioofnt sh weo rladrc ea uguhpti na r evoluatt ieocnh:n ological
revoluwthiiocinhsb, r ingaibnotgud ramacthiacn gients h wea yw el ive
andw or-k andm aybeev etnh inTkh.i bso otke ltlhses toorfyt hat
revoluatnidao sns esistiesms p aocntb usinaensdss o ciseotf ya rT.h ree
broaedc onomtiecc,h nolaongdip coalli ttirceanpldr so vitdheem ain
drivfionrgcb eesh itnhdhe i gh-rteevcohl uTthieoicnro. m intgo getihne r
the1 980issr esulitnia nnge xplosoifto enc hnolaongdis coacli al
innovaotnia so cn anloest e efno mra nyd ecadpeesr,h anposst i ntchee
IndustRreivaoll uttwioho unn dryeeda argso .
Int hfires tp lactehc,eo sotfc omputpionwgea rn dm emorcyo ntinues
tod eclrianpei dthlayn,k tso d evelopmienmn itcsr oelecotnrcoen ics,
descraisb" etdhm eo srte marktaebclhen oelvoetgrocy o nfrmoanntk ind"
(SiIre uaMna ddocikn,T om Fores(teedr. T)h,eM icroelectronics
RevolutiBoans,B illa ckwOexllf,o arnddM ITP resCsa,m briMdagsse.,,
1980T)h.em icrochhaisp cphuetac po mputpionwgeo rn tdhees kosf
millioCnosm.p utaerrpesr oliferaasnti envgeb ref otrhee:ar rene o w at
lea1s0tm0 i lliionnt hweo rlodv,e hra lofft hebmo rtnh iyse aarn dl ast.
Computhearvsee n teriendts oo ciebtlyo'osd st-raenadmt heayr e
becomiunbgi quibteocuasut sheea yr ceh eap.
Secontdhd,ei gitiozfia ntfioornm tahtrioountg hcheo mmolna nguage
oft hbei nacroydi esb ringinagb otuthc eo nvergoefvn ocieci em,a gaen d
dat-a and oft het elecommunieclaetcitornaosnn,dic cosm puting
industrieusp othnbe ams.Te hde b inacroyd iesa u nivelrasnaglu aa ge,
digiltaanlg utahgabetr idngaetsi ofnraoln tAiseD rrsA .nW angf,o under
ofW angL aboratpourtii te",sT ,h dei gitiozfai tnifoonr mina tailioltn s
formwsi llp robabbekl nyo wanst hmeo sfta scindaetvienlgo pomfte hnet
20tche ntury."
CopyrighteMda terial
2 Introduction
Thirdt,h ew orldwwiadveoe f d eregulaantdti hopenr ivzaattiioofn
publimco nopolbiyeg so vernmeenstpse,c iiantl hleyfi elodf t ele­
communicahtaisso pnasr,ko efdaf n e xplosoifeo nnt repreannedu rial
corporaacttiev idteys igtnoet da kaed vantoafgt eh en ewb usiness
environNmeewnc to.m paneinetsae nr dl eapvreo duacrte aassn ever
befoNreew.p roduecmtesr agsen evebre foErset.a blished companies
don'ktn oww habtu sintehsesay r ei n,a sth e boundabreitewse en
traditsieocnthaoavlre sb ecoimnec reabsliunrgrlAeysad r .e suwleta ,r e
witnesthsei enmge rgeonfca eni nternaitinotneaglr,ina ftomeradt ion­
procesisnidnugsb tarsyeu dp odni gitteaclh nology.
Asa nil lustroaftt hideo enc licnoisnotgfc omputpionwge ar 1,9 77
state-ofp-etrhseo-cnaoarmltp utperro ces1s0e0d, 000 machine instruc­
tiopnesr s ecoanndd c amew it6h4 k iloboyftm eains memorayn d
160k iloboyfdt iesssk t oraAg 1e9.8m 7a chinnoteo nlcyo smtusc hl ess,
buta lshoa 2s0 ti metsh per ocespsoiwneg2r 0,t imetsh mea imne mory
and5 00t imetsh edi sks torcaagpea cTihteyp .r iocfes torai snign gle
digiutniatol fd atiana m emorcyhi pf efllr oomn e-toefna ct ehn itn1 976
too ne-thouosfaa cn edntithn1 98an6d, i tw illke edpr oppbiyna gb out
35p ercpeenartn num.
Witthh nee w" superc(hsiefipegs u"r1 e. 1w)e,a reen terthiens gu b­
micronw ietrohav ,e1 rm illitorna nsipsltaocorensda s ingclhei Bpy.
them id1-990sse micondduecstiogrwn ielrblsep uttinogv e4rm illion
transiosnat c ohrisap n,db efotrheee n do ft hcee ntguirgya -b1ib ti llion
componoenna tc shi p- integrmaatiybo enp ossiTbhlene e.ws uperchips
wilplr 'obraebpllyma acien fraimntime es andw ilslo ocno ntamionr e
powetrh atno dasyu'pse rcomputers.
1980 1985 1987 1990 1995
Circsuiitz e 4 Microns 2 Microns 1 Micron 0.5M icron 0.2M5i cron
Memory capacity 64K 256K 1024K 4096K 16384K
Powerr ange Deskt opc omputer MinicomputeMrai nframceo mputer Supercomputer Ultracomputer
ApplicatIOns Digiwtaatl ches. Lap computers, Pcocokmeputt ers. RObotst hacant see, StaWra rssys tems.
VIdeog ames, Englneenwnogrk electronIc freeze-friVasm,e personarlo bots,
personcaol mputersst atiopnrso.g rammablmea p-navIgatorsc,o mputetrsh at computewirst h
appliances high-resoTVlsu tiroecognn ize and use human-lliogkieC
naturlaaln guages
��1lt
Figure T1h.e1 n ews uperchiwphsa:t p ackinmgo rep owero na chipw ill
bring.
(ReprifnrtoJemud n 1e0 1985, ofiB sussuien eWsese k by sppeecrimails sion,
© 1985 by McGraw·Hili Inc.)
CopyrighMtaetde rial