High Probability Trading Strategies - Forex Factory

290 Pages·2008·7.22 MB·English

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High Probability
Trading
Strategies
Entry to Exit Tactics for the Forex, Futures,
and Stock Markets
ROBERT C. MINER
JohnWiley&Sons,Inc.
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High Probability
Trading
Strategies
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Foundedin1807,JohnWiley&Sonsistheoldestindependentpublishingcompanyinthe
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High Probability
Trading
Strategies
Entry to Exit Tactics for the Forex, Futures,
and Stock Markets
ROBERT C. MINER
JohnWiley&Sons,Inc.
P1:a/b P2:c/d QC:e/f T1:g
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Copyright(cid:1)C 2009byRobertMiner.Allrightsreserved.
PublishedbyJohnWiley&Sons,Inc.,Hoboken,NewJersey.
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LibraryofCongressCataloging-in-PublicationData:
Miner,RobertC.
Highprobabilitytradingstrategies:entrytoexittacticsfortheForex,futures,
andstockmarkets/RobertMiner.
p.cm.–(Wileytradingseries)
Includesbibliographicalreferencesandindex.
ISBN978-0-470-18166-9(cloth/cd-rom)
1.Speculation. 2.Futures. 3.Stocks. 4.Foreignexchangemarket.
5.Investmentanalysis. I.Title.
HG6015.M56 2009
332.64–dc22 2008017697
PrintedintheUnitedStatesofAmerica
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
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Contents
Foreword ix
Preface xi
PART ONE High Probability Trading Strategies for Any Market
and Any Time Frame 1
CHAPTER 1 High Probability Trade Strategies for Any Market
and Any Time Frame 3
AnyMarket,AnyTimeFrame 4
ConditionswithaHighProbabilityOutcome 4
LeadingandLaggingIndicators 5
WhatYouWillLearninThisBookandCD 6
Let’sGetStarted 8
CHAPTER 2 Multiple Time Frame Momentum Strategy 9
WhatIsMomentum? 11
MultipleTimeFrameMomentumStrategies 12
TheBasicDualTimeFrameMomentumStrategy 12
MomentumReversals 14
MostPriceIndicatorsRepresentRate-of-Change 15
MomentumandPriceTrendsOftenDiverge 16
HowDualTimeFrameMomentumStrategiesWork 19
WhichIndicatorstoUseforMultipleTimeFrame
MomentumStrategies 31
WhatAretheBestIndicatorSettingstoUse? 36
DualTimeFrameMomentumStrategyRules 43
DualTimeFrameMomentumStrategyTradeFilter 46
v
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vi CONTENTS
CHAPTER 3 Practical Pattern Recognition for Trends
and Corrections 49
WhyIsItImportanttoIdentifyaTrendorCorrection? 50
SimplePatternRecognitionBasedOnElliottWave 52
TrendorCorrection:TheOverlapGuideline 52
ABCandAwayWeGo 58
ComplexCorrections 64
OverlapIstheKeytoIdentifyaCorrection 66
TrendsandFive-WavePatterns 67
GreaterinTimeandPrice 75
FifthWavesAretheKey 77
MomentumandPatternPosition 79
MomentumandPatternNotEnough 82
CHAPTER 4 Beyond Fib Retracements 83
InternalRetracementsandCorrections 84
AlternatePriceProjectionsQualifyInternal
Retracements 89
MoreAlternatePriceProjections 92
ExternalRetracementsHelpIdentifytheFinalSectionof
aTrendorCorrection 96
PatternPriceTargets 99
Price,Pattern,andMomentum 106
NoExcuse 108
CHAPTER 5 Beyond Traditional Cycles 111
TimeRetracementsandCorrections 112
AlternateTimeProjectionsNarrowtheTime
RetracementRange 114
MoreTimeFactors 117
TheTimeTargetZone 118
TimeBands 128
MoreTimeFactors 135
Conclusion 137
CHAPTER 6 Entry Strategies and Position Size 139
EntryStrategy1:TrailingOne-BarEntryandStop 140
EntryStrategy2:SwingEntryandStop 150
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Contents vii
PositionSize 158
Conclusion 162
CHAPTER 7 Exit Strategies and Trade Management 163
Multiple-UnitTrading 164
Risk/RewardRatios 165
ExitStrategies 166
TradeManagement 168
TradeOnlytheHighProbability,OptimumSetups 197
PART TWO Trading the Plan 199
CHAPTER 8 Real Traders, Real Time 201
AdamSowinski(Slorzewo,Poland) 202
JagirSingh(London,UnitedKingdom) 206
CeesVanHasselt(Breda,TheNetherlands) 214
KerrySzymanski(Tucson,Arizona) 218
DerrikHobbs(Warsaw,Indiana) 222
CarolynBoroden(Scottsdale,Arizona) 227
JaimeJohnson(Encinitas,California,and
Bogata,Columbia) 231
ChapterSummary 234
CHAPTER 9 The Business of Trading and Other Matters 237
RoutinesandTradingRecords 237
WhyTradersWinorLose 239
Technology,TradingTimeFrames,MarketstoTrade,
andLeverage 242
TradeforPoints,NotforTicks 244
YouCan’tBuySuccess 244
YouCANBeaSuccessfulTrader 245
More Bar-by-Bar Entry to Exit Trade Examples 247
Glossary 249
Bibliography 261
About the Author 263
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viii CONTENTS
Index 265
About the CD-ROM 271